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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    @davidmoran in this economy... with the wealth of investment choices... Why.... “have a lot of money earning zero too”?
    That’s not criticism ... I’m trying to learn what I don’t know. I’m looking out for a family member and asking the same questions... re investments and this market and conditions we are in.
    YTD S&P 500 is up 5.50%
    Tell me about it. Don't I know it. I will be interested in your own responses to your own questions.
    Where if anywhere will you put spare moneys? Where should I put moneys now which I will not need for a few years (not a decade, but not 3-4y either)?
    50-50 VTIP (GTO, MINT) and VONV (VONE, CAPE)? BND and BIV are down. Something additional into ARK and QQQ? Maybe.
    Shiller p/e is close to 36, higher than it has ever been since the Y2k peak-plunge. Each week it goes higher. I coulda written this post, and believe I did, any month of the last 8 or so. We are 2/3 out of market for the last 10mos. In some sense we have enough and are being prudent in retirement. Otoh my wife, not just me, would like to have, or have had, the several hundred thou we 'missed', if I had stayed the course and done nothing.
  • Why in the World Would You Own Bond (Funds) When…
    Why in the World Would You Own Bond Funds?

    I'm a few years away from retirement and am not comfortable with a 100% equity allocation.
    Higher quality bond funds have low correlations to equities and add ballast to one's portfolio.
    My bond allocation is lower than average (based on age) since current bond yields are depressed.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    Re @bee’s above comments...
    We kicked this concept around here roughly a decade ago. I thought than it was totally WACKO.
    In hindsight, it would appear to me anyway that if a retiree is able to protect & grow his / her nest-egg during the crucial first decade following retirement, than (depending on circumstances) that person might be in a somewhat better position to assume greater market risk later on. Perhaps mentioned already - but if home equity has grown substantially over those years, it’s also an argument for taking on a bit more market risk.
    Why is the first decade so important? Because a large % loss than might prove more devastating than were it to occur later on after (1) net worth had increased appreciably and (2) life expectancy had decreased. All depends ...
    I never liked glide-paths and have assiduously avoided funds that incorporate them. Fine for people who pay little attention to markets and investing. But I’d rather have the ability to add or pull back on market exposure than to venture down the one-way street glide-paths seem to lock one onto. The experience in 2007-9 and to some extent in early 2020 demonstrate the advantage of being nimble rather than locked in.
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    After years of accumulating a retirement nest egg using exclusively low cost, well diversified Target Date Funds, determine your income needs and allocate a portion of your portfolio to meet those income needs. Your Target Dated Fund (now very conservative) could be your funding source (4% rule).
    Slowly recast these funds out on the Target Date spectrum towards a higher equity weighting. This allows part of your portfolio to slowly move into a higher weighting in equities as you age and help avoid sequence of return risk early in retirement.
    Should Equity Exposure Decrease In Retirement, Or Is A Rising Equity Glide path Actually Better?
    Yet the research shows that rising glide paths can be so effective, they may actually lead to lower average equity exposure throughout retirement, even while obtaining more favorable outcomes. And ironically, it turns out that for those who do want to implement a rising equity glide path, the best approach might actually be to explain it to clients as a bucket strategy in the first place!
    should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Sven: I have the largest slice of our assets with TIAA because of my employment. My current plan is to move what’s now with Schwab and TDA to a brokerage account at TIAA so that my family will have only one wealth manager to deal with when I can’t or don’t want to be involved. I’ve been with the same advisor there for some 20 years, so I feel comfortable my heirs will be in good hands. Our arrangement will resemble moving into a retirement community that provides various levels of care starting with fully independent living and ending with that stage I don’t want to contemplate.
    @hank’s comments on the various TRP funds/strategies are right on. At this point, I’m using TMSRX as an alternative to cash and to part of what might normally be bonds for me. PTIAX remains, IOFAX is gone, and the remaining non-equity money is destined for one or two allocation funds, surely with TRP. I doubt I’d know of these options without MFO and its skilled commentators for which I’m grateful.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    Several years ago it was @msf who brought the difference to my attention.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/129057/#Comment_129057
    It would be instructive to compare the two equivalent funds of the same year and see the % difference. Also there is an institutional series of TDF that requires $1M minimum to invest. They are for business retirement accounts and pension fund.
    TIAA is a good company for teacher retirement accounts. We use Vanguard index funds to invest for our kids 529 college funds. It is the power of compounding of invested $ that help us to achieve our goal. Same goal here to invest for retirement using T. Rowe Price.
    As we age we would like to reduce the complexicity of managing the portfolio by embracing target dated funds. When our mental capacity is reduced at later part of our lives, TDF would be very helpful to achieve our goal.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Sven: thanks for reminding me about the two different types of TDFs at TRP. In my retirement account at TIAA, my former employer’s choices determine the funds I can use. The Vanguard funds you allude to are what I have chosen, while I use TIAA index funds for pure equity exposure. Harbor Capital Appreciation is the only actively managed stock fund I own in that account.
    @Catch: sorry for mistaking you for @Crash, or visa versa. One COVID activity we initiated is feeding the birds. After finally figuring out how to keep the deer and squirrels from stealing the birdseed, I still need to replenish the feeder daily because our place has become very popular. I wonder if feeding the woodpeckers will deter them from attacking our cedar siding.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    @Crash and @BenWP,
    I think we are thinking along the same line. In order to simply our lives, we have been consolidate the holdings in our tax-deferred accounts. Our 401(K) accounts have moved to a Vanguard target date funds and the returns have been quite respectable as shown in 2020. Certainly we appreciate to consolidate from 10 funds to just one.
    Outside the 401(K), we are also considering to use TRP's target date funds as the core holding and complement it with our favorite funds such as PRWCX and TMSRX. Several things to like about TRP target date funds:
    1. Their flexible thinking on asset allocation and how to make the necessary changes in order for the investors to meet their future goals. In this low yield environment, traditional bond allocation may not work. See Sebastien Page's WealthTrack on Feb 20th, 2021.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54612/wealthtrack-weekly-investment-show-with-consuelo-mack#latest
    Vanguard takes on a more traditional asset allocation approach.
    2. Solid active-managed funds plus a small allocation of S&P500 index fund.
    3. Reasonable expense ratio (but not the lowest as in those of Vanguard)
    Note that TRP offers two series of target date funds (Retirement and Target date) and their glide path is slight different. Retirement series is a bit more aggressive one of the two. I think RPGAX is a reasonable choice but I prefer the bond funds used in the Retirement funds.
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    I wanted to re-post some of the article's comments and additional links
    Rule Based Investing & Retirement Spending:

    Freeze Rule: In any year when the portfolio has shrunk due to market losses, we freeze the withdrawal amount, not taking any increase for inflation.
    Cut Rule: The withdrawal amount is cut by 10% if the withdrawal percentage grows to more than 20% above the initial withdrawal rate.
    Kitces calls these rules for withdrawals - Withdrawal Policy Statement (WPS):
    crafting-a-withdrawal-policy-statement-for-retirement-income-distributions-guyton/
    Guyton's Decision Rules:
    cornerstonewealthadvisors.com/wp
    Applying Guyton's Rules to a $1M portfolio (Template):
    sample-withdrawal-policy-statement-wps-from-jon-guyton/
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Thanks @ davidmorn
    I am also intrigued by Pfau's & Kitces studies that suggest:
    In a world where the conventional wisdom is that retirees should reduce their equity exposure throughout retirement as their time horizon shortens, this research suggests that in reality, the ideal may actually be the exact opposite.
    and,
    if the portfolio is depleted too severely by withdrawals and bad returns in the early years, there won’t be enough (or any) money left for when the good returns finally arrive. And notably, the truly dire situations are not merely severe market crashes that occur shortly after retirement, but instead the extended periods of “merely mediocre” returns that last for more than a decade, which are far too long to “wait out” just using some cash and intermediate bond buckets. Conversely, when the equity glidepath is rising and the retiree adds to equities throughout retirement (and/or especially in the first half of retirement), then by the time the market reaches a bottom and the next big bull market finally begins, equity exposure is greater and the retiree can participate even more!
    I have often thought...
    Own retirement date funds (that have a glide path) towards initial retirement (your retirement date) and then re-cast these "retirement date " funds out over your retirement horizon in increments that maximize a SWR, Portfolio Duration (You do not want to have a chance of failing after only 10 years if you are planning for 50 years), and Terminal Value.
    Here's a link to Kitces discussion on the topic:
    https://kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/
  • JP Morgan's 2021 - Guide to Retirement
    This guide is of great interest as I approach retirement.
    Thank you!
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    Hi @sma3
    My sister who knows nothing about investing wants a conservative asset allocation fund in early retirement for an inheritance she doesn't need to live on.
    I'll presume from your statement that: your sister is already in retirement and that her inheritance will be invested in a taxable account.
    I noted the following a few days ago regarding a 529 account that was started in 2006 but could be applied to a taxable account, too:
    >>>We set our own allocation, being 50/50 with VITPX and VBMPX. The expense ratio for the funds are .02 and .03%. VITPX holds 3,400 equities and VBMPX holds 18,000 bonds. YOW !!!
    The 50/50 ratio is required to auto balance once per year. So, the ratio has never traveled to far outside of 50/50.
    The 10 year total return for this blend of 2 funds is 8.705%.
    I've used FBALX as a benchmark for our own investments to discover how much of a smart arse or dumb arse we may be at any given time. FBALX is high on the list of balanced funds in it's category.
    FBALX has a 10 year annualized return of 10.83%. <<<
    An equivalent to the above could be a simple 50/50 of SPY and AGG (or BAGIX, a plain vanilla active managed AA bond fund); OR whatever percentage mix an individual wants to choose for these two. The rough math indicates a 50/50 mix of the above to provide about a +8.45% blended total return for the past 10 years and +6.95% over the past 15 years.
    My personal choice using AGG or BAGIX examples for bonds, would be the equity side into FSPHX or FSMEX for the 50/50 mix.
    We individual investors find ourselves at an unfamiliar place recently, relative to the AAA bond sector. Although we have BAGIX as part of our portfolio, I/we don't know how much support/ballast will arrive during a greater than -20% equity dive, although I still feel central banks and large investment organizations would still run to AAA bonds during an equity melt.
    NOTE: 50/50 of SPY (or an index) and AGG = -.4% YTD, VWINX = -.25% YTD and FBALX = +2.3% YTD.
    I think your sister could have a decent risk and reward blend of no more than 3 holdings among bonds and equity to satisfy a meaningful performance portfolio.
    Lastly, retirement finds too many variables for individuals/couples. If monetary needs are satisfied for the normal expenses, one's investments should still include equities, IMHO. Forty years of favorable bond returns are at a new place right now; and I surely don't know the forward road in this sector for a fully buy and hold portfolio.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • good allocation fund for early retiree
    My sister who knows nothing about investing wants a conservative asset allocation fund in early retirement for an inheritance she doesnt need to live on.
    I would usually go to VWINX, but I worry its large standard bond allocation will not be much of a buffer with interest rates so low. I doubt its benchmark AGG will be much help if stocks crash because of rising interest rates.
    I wanted to give her max DD and recovery rates for several funds from major families but they all differ in % equity allocations.
    Can anyone suggest a source for data on major fund families allocations for the income phase of target date funds so I can run an MFO comparison for her?
  • FSD: A Stable Absolute Return Bond Fund With A Monster Yield
    @johnN
    I will have to assume that you consider this fund to be appropriate for your Mom's retirement account, yes ???
    Only a meaningful holding of at least 25% of a total portfolio would be helpful for performance. Otherwise, one is just fiddling around with some money.
    So, might you sell 25% of BND or FBND in your Mom's account, to move to FSD?
    Not quite one's plain vanilla bond fund, eh?
    NOTE: FSD has outperformed BND or FBND for the past 6 months.
    FSD vs FBND from Jan 2018.........I chose this time frame, as 2018 through YTD 2021 has had several interesting market swings.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    related
    Don't stop believing in bonds
    MarketWatch
    ...And once you factor in a person's human capital, which Page argues acts more like a stock than a bond, a balanced portfolio with a healthy allocation...
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-stop-investing-in-bonds-2021-03-04
    Appears many folks still love bonds for diversification purpose/safety. The 20million dollars question [maybe] is how much should you be in bonds. For us about 20%, still have 15-20 yrs left before retirement.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Intimately related to the question of what is a bond fund is why own bonds or a bond fund in the first place? A reason often given is to reduce overall portfolio volatility, i.e. to zig when stocks are zagging. The mention of Sharpe ratio (based on volatility) suggests that volatility is indeed a major consideration.
    If one is diversifying into bonds to control a portfolio's overall volatility, then HY isn't a great way to do it.
    High yield bonds, also known as “junk” bonds, have always had an identity crisis. They show up in our portfolio reviews under the category of “bonds,” but in reality, they move more closely with the stock market than the bond market. ...
    High-yield bonds historically have a correlation of .71 with stocks, and a correlation of .17 with traditional bonds, meaning they move much more closely with stocks than bonds.
    Forbes (2018), The Most Confused Identity In Your Portfolio: High Yield Bonds
    If the intended use is simply to tamp down the volatility (reduce beta, serve as deadweight aka "ballast") of a stock-like investment, then investing in HY bonds in lieu of equities may serve that purpose. (This was implied by comparing FAGIX with VTI.) Alternatively one could dial down the equity volatility explicitly and precisely by adding cash. To reduce volatility by 25%, one can use a 75/0/25 portfolio (stocks/bonds/cash).
    BTW, M* reports only five share classes of taxable bond funds with YTD returns of 0.97%. Three are not generally available to retail investors:
    TCRRX - the institutional version of PRCPX
    EGRIX - TF institutional share class available with retail mins
    EGRSX - R6 share class of EGRIX available only through large retirement plans
    ETSIX - A shares available load waived, NTF
    FXIDX - One of Pimco's FISH "comingled vehicles"
    Except for the TRP HY fund, these are all nontraditional bond funds. ETSIX at least seems worth a look.
  • Wasatch closes some of its funds to third party financial intermediaries
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312521067244/d146109d497.htm
    (see link for funds and symbols)
    ...This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Wasatch Funds Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for Investor Class and Institutional Class shares dated January 31, 2021. You should retain this Supplement and the SAI for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at wasatchglobal.com or calling us at 800.551.1700.
    Effective on March 19, 2021, the section “Open/Closed Status of Funds” in the section entitled “General Information and History” on page 3 of the SAI is hereby deleted in its entirety and replaced with the following:
    Open/Closed Status of Funds. The Emerging India Fund, Emerging Markets Select Fund, Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund, Global Opportunities Fund, Global Select Fund, Global Value Fund, Greater China Fund, International Growth Fund, International Select Fund, Micro Cap Value Fund, and U.S. Treasury Fund are each open to investors.
    The Core Growth Fund, International Opportunities Fund, Micro Cap Fund, Small Cap Growth Fund, Small Cap Value Fund and Ultra Growth Fund are each closed to new purchases, except purchases by new or existing shareholders purchasing directly from Wasatch Funds, existing shareholders purchasing through intermediaries, and current and future shareholders purchasing through financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund. Fund officers may waive or revise the conditions of a closed fund for an intermediary depending on its ability to systematically apply the conditions.
    https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-small-cap-value-fund-to-close-to-new-investors/
    https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-micro-cap-fund-to-close-to-new-investors/
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    @catch22 I should have qualified it with "compared to the S&P 500 index". Not necessarily a fair comparison - just a competely different strategy. Invest in equity vs. bonds. Appreciate the responses to this thread and learning different rationale. I'll let others provide some chart its.
    Someone recently sent me a link to a discussion Dave Ramsey was having on "not holding bond funds" and what he believes about proper allocation. I think it's worth a listen (even as it's simplistic and controversial) - he draws a correlation between average life expectancy and what those bond funds can/can't do for you between retirement 65-90 years of age: htt
    ps://youtu.be/yqMCTSnJ6Y4?t=5169 I would argue that his "growth and income fund" does indeed contain some bonds.
    Note: I added two spaces between htt and p so that you could copy and paste. When it embeds in this post - it doesn't fast forward to the spot in the clip where he talks about allocation.