Nice piece. Some things I might state a little differently, but a good presentation.
I would point out that all projections use models. Bengen used a model (past is prologue; assume that the future will repeat one of the past patterns). With some models, it's easy to calculate outcomes directly. For example, with a linear model (x% return per year, $N withdrawn/year), one can calculate exactly how much an investor will have at the end of each year. Other models are harder to "solve", so numeric methods are used to get approximate values.
One numeric method used to solve models is Monte Carlo. It just "runs" the model many times to see what outcomes occur at what frequencies. For example, suppose I model a coin flip as a 50/50 proposition. What is the distribution of outcomes if I flip the coin four times?
I could simply compute the combinations:
4 Heads (1/16) HHHH
3 Heads (4/16) HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH
2 Heads (6/16) HHTT, HTHT, THHT, HTTH, THTH, TTHH
1 Head (4/16) HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH
0 Heads (1/16) TTTT
Or I could run a Monte Carlo simulation, flipping a virtual coin 4 times over and over, and counting the number of times I got 4 heads, 3 heads, etc. Same model, two completely different approaches to "solving" it. Running a Monte Carlo simulation is merely a mechanism to solve the model.
What's key is the model itself. If I'm flipping a biased coin (the stock market wins more than it loses over the long term), then the model above (50/50) is garbage in, garbage out.
The model above was probabilistic, yet I could solve it without using a Monte Carlo simulation. So I try to take care in differentiating the model (hard to get right) from the use of the model to predict outcomes (easy).
This aside, the points made in the article are well stated. It's not just that tweaking parameters of a model can result in major changes in the predicted outcome, but also that the model itself may not be good. When you use a free "Monte Carlo tool", you're getting is a built-in model.
"the client only gets one shot at retirement. ... And if your plan can succeed in the worst-case scenario that should provide some degree of comfort."
This gets us to interpreting the forecasts. Even if they are accurate (i.e. good model, good choice of parameter values), what use does one make of the outputs? On the one hand, a possibility of failure, no matter how slim, can be viewed as unacceptable. OTOH, if one plans for the perfect storm, the once in a century possibility (like, say, a pandemic), then one is almost surely going to underspend/oversave by a lot.
So "all plans, even those with a 95% probability of success, require spending adjustments along the way."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-you-use-a-monte-carlo-simulation-to-determine-if-your-retirement-savings-will-last-11611607222?siteid=yhoof2
Stay safe, Derf

Can't really answer that question without more information regarding investment goals and financial situation. Is this money for retirement or to pay for college for instance? If it's for the former it should be invested aggressively, the latter conservatively as the child is 18 and will need the money right away. Is this 18 year old on his/her own and this is all the money he/she has or is it play money his/her parents can give him? The former should be conservative despite his/her age, the latter aggressive. Does this child have any debts he/she should pay off first? Just because someone is young is not a strong indication of how money is to be invested.

And an 18-yr old should learn to understand and embrace volatility as early as possible in their investing career. As one legendary M* poster used to routinely remind us, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
Note: MS also has some of the very best LC, MC and SC growth funds as I've posted elsewhere. MSEGX could easily be suggested for the OP also, but the noted WS or Total Mrkt Inx funds seem best. Hard to go too far wrong with any of those.
Aside: My mentor handed me Fido Magellan on a platter as my first fund for its glorious ride through most of the 80's. Then came Fido Low Priced Stock. They paved the way for early retirement, so this first fund choice can be very important over the long haul. Best wishes to the OP.

Yes, it is indeed an expensive moment to invest. Can't get past that fact. It's always hanging there, behind us, in the background. For myself, I'm glad I already did the work of streamlining and consolidating my portfolio, preparing for retirement. What I hold now, I hold in bigger amounts than two years ago. So, all of them are high-conviction bets. I've reduced foreign equity to 9-10%. If I decide to add to the foreign stuff, it will be in PRGSX. That's apart from a segregated few thousand dollars in an account dedicated to my wife's interests. HGGIX.

@Crash I think you may be correct... Bonds may just be poison. I'm looking at my FUAMX , FXNAX , FNBGX and wondering what the future holds. I don't like making changes either but what does the next 2-3 years mean for bonds? It seems like foul weather ahead.

I'm still 55% bonds, in retirement, and wanting to reduce risk and volatility. Though I'm still re-investing the monthly dividends, I'm glad to see that income show up at the end of each month. (Though my PTIAX pays in the middle of the month, after someone thought it would be a better idea.) 38% stocks is about enough for me. The Fund Managers of the funds in my portfolio together have me holding 8% in cash. I'm giddy to see days like today, even though I know I'm missing a chunk of the profits by holding all those bonds. The ballast feels comfortable when the Market drops, the way it did, last week. ..... So..... I'm sure you'll think this through to do the best thing in your own situation.
I'm happy with my bond funds: PTIAX, PRSNX, RPSIX. I think I'd steer clear of anything specifically devoted to long term bonds right now. (FNBGX.) Those are all Fidelity funds. Maybe you're semi-married to Fidelity? The same way I'm rather married to TRP? I'm in my holdings DIRECTLY with the fund family, not using a brokerage. If you use a brokerage, that would make spreading out your stuff a lot easier than in my case.
Anyhow, if you've got some years to go, wanting to grow rather than preserve, I'd create a meaningful position in small-caps. Just don't bet the farm. I own PRDSX and it's great. @TheShadow pointed out to me that it is open to new investors. I was mistaken.
FOCSX (A Fidelity fund.) HASGX (Harbor, $50k minimum to get in.)
Also, global: HGGIX (Harbor, again.) PRGSX (TRP Global.)
...Or a million others you might prefer. Zero interest rates and a big investment in bonds will not serve you well if you still have several years to go.

Just wondering if there’s an option to upload documents to TRP’S website so you don’t have to rely on the mail being sorted? I’ve used this option at Schwab in the past and am in the process of doing the same to transfer a 401k out of the nightmare called Empower Retirement so as to eliminate one weak link in the chain.

I did find out an interesting tid-bit though, not all closed funds are really closed funds. He told me that if the amount is large enough for moving 401k funds in, that they could be deposited into currently closed funds. I've been looking at PRWCX Capital Appreciation and was told I could open an account and actually deposit funds into it if it's the right amount. Does this sound right?

Yes, this is a open secret that occasionally comes up here. I used this loophole by transferring part of a small 401k to TRP and opening a Rollover IRA in PRWCX a couple of years ago.
Then I transferred one share of PRWCX from this new IRA to an existing IRA at Fido. This let me buy additional shares of PRWCX in my Fido IRA.

I only started following this fund in the last several months.
SVARX is a fund of other fixed income funds. The ER=2.95 is very high, but the results are very good. Several of these funds have ER of 1.5% already. BTW, in 03/2020 the fund lost less than 2% peak to trough. The risk-adjusted performance easily beat VBINX+VWIAX
As of 1/15/2020: (One year SD is from PortVis)
SVARX performance/SD...............1 year=23.4%/6.4.......3 year=10.4% annually/5.4.....5 year=11.4% annually/4.9.
VBINX (60/40) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/16.8.....3 year=11.2% annually/11.9...5 year=11.15 annually/9.7.
VWIAX (40/60) performance/SD.....1 year=23.4%/11.55...3 year=7.2% annually/7.7......5 year=8.0% annually/6.3.
When you look at their (site) they do a good job not to mention the fact they invest in other fixed income funds.
Their top funds from M* as of 9/30/2020 are and by now it's probably different :)
IOFIX=special securitized
NHYIX=HY
Recv Nuveen Prf Secs Inc
Pimco Govt Mm Instl
BDKNX=special securitized
Eaton Vance Floating=bank loans
Ishares Tr Pfd Inc S (-10%)
CMOYX=CLMAX=special securitized
The yield is low under 1% for 2020 and about 3-3.5% for 2019 and about 2.5% in 2018.
So, if you are looking for a good risk/reward fund, maybe that's the one. See one year (chart) and change to 3-5.
===================
I'm not sure what the managers of SVARX are doing, but I managed my own portfolio with the following goals: making more than 6% annually, never losing more than 3% from any last top, SD under 3. In the last 3 years, since retirement in 2018, I have used mainly bond funds with several very short term (hours-days) of stocks/ETF/CEFs, usually very concentrated in 2-3 bond OEFs, using momentum and switching between best performing funds but also selling to cash when risk is very high as I did in Q4/2018 and Q1/2020. My portfolio risk-adjusted performance below as of 12/31/2020 are actually even better. Directly from Schwab, you can see below that SD=2.3 for both one and three years. The portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top during 2018-2020.

One gut check for investing in up markets is to reference your present portfolio value with different draw downs scenarios (in percentages) and the potential recovery time (in months/years)
S&P 500 data since WWII:
Here are a few charts to help illustrate my point (averaged 14% drop over 8 months)...frequency (33% of the time):
Corrections:

Bear Markets (averaged over a 32% drop over 3 years 2months)...frequency (20% of the time):

Another view of drops from S&P 500 Highs and the subsequent time to reach new highs:

Since WWII the market has either corrected (14%) or fell into a bear market (over 30%) 38 times over the last 75 years or about half the time.
Also, a 14% loss (correction) requires a 16.25% gain to break even from that correction. A 33% loss (bear market loss) requires a 49.25% gain to break even.
At these market levels ask yourself a few questions:
Short term:
- Do I have debt that I could pay off with some of these gains (prior to a correction)?
- Do I have large one time payments (weddings, tuition, house projects, vacations, etc) that could be funded by reallocating some of your market gains to cash with some of these gains.
Long term:
- For young, long term investors, prepare yourself emotionally for sell offs of 14% - 35% at least every other year. Continue adding to your retirement (investment) by dollar cost averaging in both up and down markets.
For me...and
- For retirees using their portfolio for income, try to position 3-5 years of your income needs in less volatile investments.
I am using VFISX and VWINX for this propose in retirement. In years where the market returns are better than VWINX, I reallocate some of these gains into VFISX & VWINX. I also may take yearly income from these funds in years when they far outperform.
When the market sells off I first draw from VFISX, then VWINX. These two funds help me navigate yearly income withdrawals during market downturns while the rest of my portfolio waits for a recovery.
Reference:
heres-how-long-stock-market-corrections-last-and-how-bad-they-can-get

This has been ongoing for decades. The question is does Wall Street care and will it ultimately affect the bottom line? Henry Ford realized that if his workers didn't have a decent wage they couldn't buy his cars. So who will be left with purchasing power ultimately? Will only manufacturers of luxury goods for the rich and dirt cheap goods for the poor succeed as the middle disappears? Also, there is an old argument that technology creates as many jobs as it destroys. I'm not sure that is still true in this case or will be true when mass automation occcurs. What is fascinating to me is the analysts and money managers working on Wall Street who long celebrated automation in Main Street can easily be replaced themselves now with index funds and ETFs. You need very few human beings to run an index fund. So in a way there is a form of poetic justice occurring to those who love the "creative destruction" of markets. It isn't just blue collar people who can be replaced today. In fact if you hate the politics of Wall Street but still feel a need to invest for your retirement it's hard to think of a better way than to buy a zero or near zero-cost index fund and holding it long-term. You're essentially giving nothing to the house or the casino owners.

A couple of links that I looked at today related to Roth IRAs:
Are Roth IRAs Overrated?
We discuss:
Diversification between tax sources for retirement savings
It doesn’t have to be all or nothing with these decisions
The compounding benefits of a Roth
If you’re at the point of optimizing you’ve probably already won
Does a Roth make your retirement planning simpler?
What if you don’t get a tax break on your traditional IRA contribution?
What’s the tipping point to go from Roth to traditional contributions?
What does Bill do with his own assets?
Podcast is embedded in link:
are-roth-iras-overrated

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421000510/fp0061082_497.htm
497 1 fp0061082_497.htm
FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
Emerald Small Cap Value Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated January 11, 2021
to the Fund’s
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
dated August 31, 2020, as supplemented
As previously disclosed, on December 8, 2020, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Financial Investors Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Fund, a series of the Trust, determined to close and liquidate the Fund on or about January 11, 2021. The date for such liquidation is now expected to be on or about January 29, 2021 (the “Liquidation Date”).
If the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

@davidmoran: You had company when you did some selling in the spring. I, too, predicted that the pandemic would cripple the economy and the markets. Had I done nothing, my assets would have weathered the storm. I sold a mid-cap value fund in my retirement account that subsequently recovered beautifully. Now value is all the rage.
FWIIW, I also predicted (to no one except the other person who inhabits my head) that DT's election in 2016 would cause markets to tumble. Moral: retirees have too much time to worry and they make mistakes.

... can understand where you are coming from. If I panicked in March 2020, I would have missed out on a huge finish to 2020. I know we can't time the market ...

I did not panic, I trust, and was not trying to time, in the usual sense. By May 11 all of our equity fund holdings were back to breakeven or abovewater (except for FRIFX, not a huge portion). I projected that this plague was going to be much worse and longer-lived than most were saying, which has turned out to be the case. (I'd lost to covid at end March my oldest college friend, of 55y nonstop acquaintance, healthy etc. --- a jarring, sudden-enough death.) I believed the economic impact was going to be much worse than predicted, including crippled consumer spending. Turned out to be only partly the case; certainly the latter did not occur. All this thinking of mine was informed by extensive reading and some crude numbercrunching. I thought if we could avoid a >20% monthslong / yearslong drop in this early stage of our retirement we would be better off. So as with so much in life I regret it only in hindsight.
I can however guarantee that right after I get back in the really big broad market drops will occur, without fail.

@JonGaltill, our own contributor to the monthly commentary, Lynn Bolin provided many insightful articles on preparing for retirement. Here is one from January 2021.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/2021/01/as-i-age/
Charles also writes for Seeking Alpha, another good resource to inform yourself in prepare for another black swan events. If you did well during March 2020's drawdown, you are on the right track on your asset allocation.
@davfor and davidmoran,
Any insights on this bullishness?

Hello Mark,
Some investors believe very strongly in living off the income of their portfolio. Total return investors tend to raise cash as they rebalance. I care most about risk management. Having lower drawdowns with moderate total returns. As I near retirement I have been researching funds that also produce safe income.
The largest compelling reason to own DIVO is safer, higher income.

Income this year may be abnormally low. The IRS outlines how the Saver's Credit works for those who qualify.
retirement-savings-contributions-savers-credit

As I am getting close to retirement next year, I will complete conversion of DSEEX to PHSKX & VLAAX (reason - DSEEX March 2020 performance, too volatile).

I completely agree with the idea that many people should pay more attention to living and less to making a living. And if you're one of the fortunate minority at risk of dying with a surfeit of cash, there are many worthwhile things you can do with that money to solve this "problem".
But I do take issue with how the figures are presented.
" the average inheritance in the U.S. being $177,000(the median is closer to $69,000)"
The two numbers come from different sources. Which is curious, because the writer had available figures from the same source (Survey of Consumer Finances) on the page he cited:
$707,291 (average) and $69,000 (median).
By mixing numbers from different sources, he makes it appear as though average and mean are not all that far apart. So don't worry when he then gives only average figures:
"The average retired adult who dies in their 60s leaves behind $296k in net wealth, $313k in their 70s, $315k in their 80s, and $238k in their 90s."
However, from the source of that quote also comes this:

The median respondent that died in their 60s had about $3,000 in liquid investments within two years of their passing, which increased to $10,000 for respondents that died in their 70s and $15,000 for those that died in their 80s.

Without liquidating or otherwise monetizing their homes (if any) many people have virtually no assets to live on.

Indeed, about 46 percent of senior citizens in the United States have less than $10,000 in financial assets when they die. Most of these people rely almost totally on Social Security payments as their only formal means of support

https://news.mit.edu/2012/end-of-life-financial-study-0803
The shift from inheritance (used in the original piece) to liquid asset data in the quotes I gave is deliberate. If we're talking about trading money for time, we're talking about the money that you have to spend, not how much your heirs will inherit.
If one has the resources, or projected future earnings, to take more time for oneself, definitely go for it. But for far more people than his figures suggest, being able to do so is only a dream.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1697196/000158064220004585/acpmi497.htm
497 1 acpmi497.htm 497
AlphaCentric Prime Meridian Income Fund
(the “Fund”)
December 22, 2020
The information in this Supplement amends certain information contained in the Fund’s current Prospectus and Statement of Additional information (“SAI”), each dated April 24, 2020.
______________________________________________________________________________
The Fund’s Board of Trustees approved increases in the minimum purchase requirements for regular accounts from $2,500 to $10,000 and for retirement plan accounts from $1,000 to $10,000.
All references to the minimum investment amounts contained in the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI are hereby revised accordingly.
* * *
You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI, which provide information that you should know about the Fund before investing. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund toll-free at 1-888-910-0412, or by writing to the Fund at c/o U.S. Bancorp Fund Services, LLC, 615 East Michigan Street, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202.
Please retain this Supplement for future reference.