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  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Analysis at the end, after the performance.

    Performance......One month...YTD as of 5/29/2020

    Multi
    PDIIX…3.1....-2.35
    PUCZX…3.8…-3.7
    JMUTX....4.0....-5.1
    TSIIX.....3.1….-0.1
    PTIAX….1.9….-0.2
    Multi(high % securitized)
    PIMIX.....2.3….-3.4
    EIXIX…..3.1….-0.4
    VCFAX...2.8....-10.8
    IOFIX.....6.3....-26.3
    HY Munis
    PHMIX…..3.4.....-3.1
    NHMAX....4.6.....-7.3
    OPTAX.....3.2.....0.15.
    ORNAX….3.9…-5.25
    BSNIX....2.8....3.4
    GWMEX….5.0…..-3.1 (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    NVHAX…1.5…-6.2 (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    SAMFX.......0.7.....8.0
    BCOIX......1.3…...4.4
    SCCIX.....1.3....11.2
    ANBEX……1.6....12..9
    BND….......0.7…...5.7
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    EIFAX.......4.3.....-8.2
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    IISIX..........3.0....-6.3
    PMZIX......1.5….-0.1
    JSIAX……1.5….-0.3
    HY +EM
    HYG.........2.95.....-4.5
    PHIYX.......4.0.....-4.1
    FNMIX……7.5……-6.4
    Corporate
    PIGIX….…1.7.….0.1
    VCIT……..2.7…..3.5
    Preferred
    PFINX…...2.7……-6.0
    OTHER
    FXAIX.…..3.8..…-5.0 (SP500)
    PCI………7.0... -23.7 (CEF)
    Observations:
    Last month was another rebound month. Several bond funds made as much money as stocks.
    Multi- did great. TSIIX(multi) + EIXIX(Multi securitized continues to show the best risk/reward. JMUTX shows good momo. IOFIX shows the best momo but I can’t forget its meltdown
    HY Munis had a great rebound in May. BSNIX had the best risk/reward. GWMEX had the best momo.
    Inter term – did well. If you doubt about finding better funds then look at ANBEX.
    Bank loans – Good rebound but still big losses YTD
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-PMZIX with great risk/reward but if you want to make money look at IISIX,JSIAX.
    HY+EM – Good rebound in May.
    Corp – In a tough market VCIT beat PIGIX.
    SP500-Just -5% for YTD. The price crossed the 200 moving average, that means to start buying if you were out.
    PCI-CEF got crushed more than stocks YTD and are still behind. If markets stabilize they will make more money than stocks.
    ===========================
    My own portfolio
    As expected from a trader I go where I see momentum but still look at risk/reward. The market looks better than before and why I start taking more risks.
    Early in the month, I had 3 holdings but mostly in ANBEX(core plus)+BSNIX(HY Munis) but I switched to GWMEX(HY Munis)+TSIIX(Multi) + EIXIX. I have over 50% in GWMEX, a smaller position in TSIIX, and a much smaller in EIXIX.
    Stats: My portfolio made over 8% YTD.
    For 3 years I made over 9% average annually with SD lower than 2 (remember, my goals were 6+% and SD lower than 3). My portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top. So, when they tell you that bonds (I also trade stocks,CEFs) are boring with no future I keep chuckling and the unbelievers will continue to dismiss the numbers.
    FUND...3 YR...SD
    SPY.....10.15...16.9
    VBINX...8......10.7
    VWIAX...6.4...6.9
    Mine.....9+....under 2
    It looks better after the rebound but at the end of March(see below), it was so much worse. See PV(link)
    FUND...3 YR...SD
    SPY.....5......14.9
    VBINX...4.45....9.3
    VWIAX...4.17...6
    Mine.....not far from the above
    The above is not a recommendation, you must do your own due diligence. My holdings can change at any time :-)
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    I "love" when someone says averages. You can do better than the average and/or find better than average funds. It also depends on when you start and end the results.
    Any time you start before a crash and end after a crash, "safer" higher-credit bonds look better.
    So, if I compare PIMIX to BND from 01/2010 to 01/2018(link). PIMIX did 3 times better and why PIMIX was a major % of my portfolio. Since 01/2018 it wasn't as good but IOFIX was great until end of 02/2020 when I sold it.
    Basically, it depends what kind of investor are you, style, goals, retiree or accumulator and more.
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    @davidrmoran Yes, trailing S&P500 by "only" 9% or so YTD. I've added DSEEX to my "good until it wasn't" list (along with PONAX, IOFIX, just about anything AQR, etc.), but will hold this one.
  • IOFIX- Better late than never
    Thanks for that link, @msf. The problem faced by IOFIX is not disssimilar to the complete collapse of the financial system in 2007-2008. Michael Lewis’s « The Big Short » explains in painful detail how CDOs and other exotic instruments were a bet on a low rate of failure to repay mortgages issued to people who had no way of paying unless housing prices continued to rise. When housing prices started to decline, the borrowers started defaulting and the house of cards collapsed. « Lower-rated tranches » are nothing more than the dreck or the absolutely riskiest loans. One way Lewis explains these « tranches » is to compare them to the lowest floors of a building built on a flood plain. The top floors represent the highest rated loans (triple A) and thus the least likely to suffer from a flood. As for the bottom floors, it’s merely when they flood, not if.
    « The fund focused on lower-rated tranches of residential mortgage-backed securities, with about 60% of its holdings rated BBB or lower, according to Morningstar, which had a five-star rating on the fund. »
    Have we learned nothing from the past? For the record, I suffered a big loss on IOFAX.
  • IOFIX- Better late than never
    Just another way of saying that it was goosing returns by investing too much ("many of the securities the Fund holds") in high risk sectors of the market that no one would want when the market turned south.
    Barron's, March 23:
    The $2.3 billion mortgage-focused AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund (IOFIX) lost 31% last week alone, and reportedly put $1 billion of securities up for sale on Sunday.
    The fund focused on lower-rated tranches of residential mortgage-backed securities, with about 60% of its holdings rated BBB or lower, according to Morningstar, which had a five-star rating on the fund.
    It was also said to have relatively high exposure to “credit risk transfer securities,” or CRTs, a type of mortgage-backed security introduced after the financial crisis. Those CRTs face especially high risk for losses tied to loan modifications. For example, if a distressed borrower negotiates a lower interest rate with an agency, that interest reduction would be passed along to the CRT holder at a loss, according to Goldman Sachs.
    AlphaCentric said in a statement that “like many other funds, [the income opportunities fund] is moving expeditiously to address the unprecedented market conditions. With the lack of liquidity in the marketplace, the most effective way to obtain favorable prices is to offer a wider range of securities for bid instead of a smaller number of specific securities. This broadens the potential universe of buyers to try and obtain the most favorable prices.”
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/mortgage-backed-securities-get-hammered-feds-move-may-not-be-enough-51584980932
    (I was able to read w/o subscription)
  • IOFIX- Better late than never
    @Charles. I hope you have an article on IOFIX in the May issue. Like you did earlier. People need to know.
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    I believe that active managers can bring value to the bond fund arena and I've done well with Pimco Income (PIMIX) as a core bond holding over the years. PIMIX has done poorly recently and index funds, such as Vanguard Total Bond (BND) have done well.
    I almost purchased AlphaCentric Bond (IOFIX), but it seemed too good to be true and we all know what happened there. Guggenheim Total Return (GIBIX) has done consistently well, but its manager seems to be a little unconventional with investing ideas. I don't think GIBIX will become the next IOFIX, but I'm wondering how much longer GIBIX can continue to outperform. Performance Trust (PTIAX) also seems like it might be a good choice.
    Although I don't like to make sector bets (even in the bond market), I'd like to consider active managers and not just a plain vanilla bond index fund.
    Any ideas? Thanks!
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.

    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words.
    Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
    politician? not really. As retiree that wants to make more without the volatility the numbers show it. If you don't understand how and what you do like most then just invest like most. Buy and Hold stocks and high rated bonds for ballast.
    You can see in 20 years black swan happened every 10 years.
    My thread was a proof of what I did, see (this)
    You can also see (this) and what I did, using trades.
    BTW, Today at 10 AM I sold all my stocks(all in QQQ) that I bought earlier in April and posted at M*. I'm not predicting it's the top, I sold sold because I made money the way I do by trading.
    But, you are not the first or last that tried to dismiss it :-) and it looks to me that every post I make you think it's your obligation to criticize.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words. Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    @Charles - no doubt small comfort but IOFIX is up 10% over the last month.
    With respect to the SEC filing against Semper this is an old issue about pricing of odd-lot MBS securities in 2013-2014.
    The SEC states that 126 odd lots were priced according to round lot prices, leading to an overstatement of approx 3.5% of their value, and thus an elevated NAV during that period.
    SEC alleges willful violation and other funds were cited as well (Pimco etc.)
    It is not related to the most recent fund collapse.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    @carew388. You're in good company.
    @NormPeterson. I found the sub-adviser for IOFIX, the folks at Garrison Point, to be of high character. I was never crazy about the AlphaCentric adviser, but the GP folks said they were left alone. I suspect that's true except for letting AUM grow. But only speculation on my part. Have not been in touch since it's (relative) collapse. Still hurts.
    @FD100. Wouldn't CEFs be a more transparent and ultimately safer play in this space? While they may (and have) experienced deep NAV drops and deeper discounts, the fund managers don't need to sell the holdings at fire sale prices. So, leaving assets in tact for a rebound during better times.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    What are the odds IOFIX did the same thing?
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
  • FMIJX = OUCHX
    @LewisBraham
    What you said is mostly correct BUT index works best for US LC. I have done very nicely by having a list of great risk/reward funds and selecting the one with the best momentum. Basically, I call them my NBA team. I want my team to go to the playoff every year. Even a superstar (like PIMIX) will be out if I can find a better performer (in my case IOFIX). This guarantees my funds to be a top performer. I also care a lot about volatility.
    In 2000-2009 I mostly held 3 funds SGENX,FAIRX,OAKBX. After 2010 and preparing for retirement I held PRWCX and PIMIX and then IOFIX.
    ===============
    @MikeM
    long term FMIJX looks better but I only care what happened in the last 1-3 years. See my answer above.
    I also look at my fund managers as my contractors, I employ the ones that give me the best work for the money. If they don't perform, I just switch them.
  • IOFIX- Better late than never
    Now they tell me!!!!
    This summary prospectus change just came in my email. It is very specific for just a summary prospectus. More than I can ever recall. Seems more appropriate in a commentary or letter from the fund rather than a summary prospectus.
    March 23, 2020
    This information supplements certain disclosures contained in the Summary Prospectus of the
    AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund, dated August 1, 2019, and the Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) for the Funds, each dated August 1, 2019, as
    supplemented January 24, 2020.
    ____________________________________________________________________
    AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund - Only
    The paragraph under the section of the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund’s
    Summary Prospectus and Prospectus entitled “FUND SUMMARY - Principal Risks of
    Investing in the Fund – Liquidity Risk” is replaced in its entirety with the following:
    Liquidity Risk. Liquidity risk exists when particular investments of the Fund would be difficult
    to purchase or sell, possibly preventing the Fund from selling such illiquid securities at an
    advantageous time or price, or possibly requiring the Fund to dispose of other investments at
    unfavorable times or prices in order to satisfy its obligations. The global impact of the coronavirus
    on the economic and financial markets have caused severe market dislocations and liquidity
    constraints in fixed income markets including many of the securities the Fund holds. To satisfy
    shareholder redemptions, it is more likely the Fund will be required to dispose of portfolio
    investments at unfavorable prices compared to their intrinsic value.
    All Funds
    The section of the Funds’ Prospectus entitled “ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT
    THE FUNDS’ PRINCIPAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND RELATED RISKS -
    Principal and Non-Principal Investment Risks – Market Risk” is replaced with the following:
    Market Risk. Overall market risks may also affect the value of the Fund. Factors such as domestic
    economic growth and market conditions, interest rate levels and political events affect the
    securities markets. Local, regional or global events such as war, acts of terrorism, the spread of
    infectious illnesses or other public health issues, recessions and depressions, or other events could
    have a significant impact on the Fund and its investments and could result in increased premiums
    or discounts to the Fund’s net asset value, and may impair market liquidity, thereby increasing
    liquidity risk. The Fund could lose money over short periods due to short-term market movements
    and over longer periods during more prolonged market downturns. During a general market
    downturn, multiple asset classes may be negatively affected. Changes in market conditions and
    interest rates can have the same impact on all types of securities and instruments. In times of severe
    market disruptions you could lose your entire investment.
    An outbreak of infectious respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus known as COVID-19
    was first detected in China in December 2019 and has now been detected globally. This
    coronavirus has resulted in travel restrictions, closed international borders, enhanced health
    screenings at ports of entry and elsewhere, disruption of and delays in healthcare service
    preparation and delivery, prolonged quarantines, cancellations, supply chain disruptions, and
    lower consumer demand, as well as general concern and uncertainty. The impact of COVID-19,
    and other infectious illness outbreaks that may arise in the future, could adversely affect the
    economies of many nations or the entire global economy, individual issuers and capital markets in
    ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen. In addition, the impact of infectious illnesses in emerging
    market countries may be greater due to generally less established healthcare systems. Public health
    crises caused by the COVID-19 outbreak may exacerbate other pre-existing political, social and
    economic risks in certain countries or globally. The duration of the COVID-19 outbreak and its
    effects cannot be determined with certainty.
  • The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
    @Old_Skeet: Thank you for posting. Will you be adding to your two real estate funds that are down more than IOFIX or selling them off & deploying else where ? Yesterday IOFIX paid their normal dividend of $.05. Would it be time to buy a piece of this fund or wait for another two or three months ?
    Thanks for your time, Derf
  • FMIJX = OUCHX
    "not exactly behaved as expected"
    Isn't that a rather common theme these days in almost all areas of the markets?
    cf: IOFIX
  • IOFIX
    After falling like a stone, IOFIX slowly but steadily rises up again. This may not mean much because the outbreak is far from over, and panic selling may lead to the same problem for the managers. Or maybe the worst is behind them, because it was once in a century storm?
    The copy of the letter from IOFIX placed to the Fund Discussions by davfor on March 21 ends by the words: "If you would like to schedule a call with one of the portfolio managers, we are happy to schedule it." Perhaps this was a part of a separate message, because I do not see it in the pdf file that I downloaded from their website, or maybe they changed the text. But I wonder whether someone already tried to contact the managers, or everybody gave up on the fund?
  • Escape Plan
    FWIW: If memory serves me, Junkster ran a very tight ship. I believe he would have exited iofix on March 11 ,nav at $13.16.
    As for me, staying the course, & bought a little on the drop.
    Schwab says cost bias, only 3 or 4 in the green at this time.
    Have a good week to all, Derf
  • Escape Plan
    @Charles - you mentioned "Our friend Junkster always touted the importance of having predefined "exit" criteria. He was/is a day trader so he watches for instabilities typically in price movements of what he calls "tight channel" funds. If he sees them, he exits the trade.
    Others like Meb Faber practice trend following ... when price drops below say the 10-mo running average, they exit their position, either to cash or something (thought) safer."
    Then asked "So curious if any on the board practice, in disciplined fashion, such techniques?
    And, perhaps even more curious of whether buy-and-hold investors, especially retired ones, EVER think of exiting. Or, is it always just about re balancing?"
    Tough questions but I'll try. NO I do not ever think about exiting. I'm pretty much all invested 99% of the time. While accumulating it was 95/5 figuring that SS would cover my wild abandon. Once retired I drifted down to roughly 75/25 by swapping some REIT's for PCI and PDI. MY portfolio is primarily a mix of individual dividend growth stocks and a handful of equity CEF's for income, PIMCO bond CEF's + IOFIX and 5 mutual funds BIAWX, GLFOX, MGGPX, POAGX and VLAAX. I do hold a pittance in SFGIX but I'm not sure why, maybe in case it ever becomes unstuck from it's funk. It is hard to apply the techniques I use across all holdings equally so I use certain ones for certain types.
    I pretty much never touch the mutual funds. That's what I hired their managers for.
    Likewise the bond holdings although I do check them occasionally trying to follow Junksters lessons along with a weekly MACD signal. I won't get into what it's all about suffice to say that MACD is an indicator used in technical analysis to identify aspects of a security's overall trend. Most notably these aspects are momentum, as well as trend direction and duration. MACD uses moving averages (trend lines and duration) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is a good indication of a security's momentum and so I watch for crossovers signalling buying when moving up from a trough or selling from a peak. Ideally I'd check them more often than I do but I try to pretend I have a life away from watching market action so sometimes I'm behind the curve unless price action screams at me.
    My equity holdings are also rarely touched because most were bought during previous market debacles and now have considerable capital gains even after this current hosing. If I found suitable similar replacements I might swap them. Or not.
    With these holdings, in addition to the MACD signal I also watch the RSI and the Chaikin Money Flow indicators. Again I am never on top of these 100% of the time but I check them occasionally and whenever Mr. Price beats on me. I use RSI to identify the general trend and watch for divergence especially from overbought or oversold conditions.
    The Chaikin Money Flow tells the real story of how much demand there is for a stock whether positive or negative. The concepts of divergences comes into play here as well. If money flow starts to fall while price is rising, then the price will generally follow downward soon. Again, a change in money flow is a signal that something is about to change with price. The weekly and monthly tell you the real big money trend and I want to be on the side of the big money. A day trader could use daily I suppose.
    Anyway, in this current meltdown all things seemed to have suffered equally so I see no reason to play with rebalancing and frankly I never look at my portfolio and think that I should. Crazy right? But my portfolio works for me and was planned out to do what I needed it to do which was to provide me with enough income to cover my modest needs along with a little extra to play with. To date I have only had one holding that suspended their dividend (can you say lucky) but I fear that we may be just in the first few innings of this game. Good luck out there.