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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M*: It's Open Enrollment Season. Have You Taken A Good Look At An HSA?
    The best "retirement" account available if used correctly, IMHO. Tax free money in and tax free out. Using correctly for retirement would mean to let it build, don't use it for medical expenses until retirement. I believe you can even pay your Medicare premiums with it.
  • Bank of America declares ‘the end of the 60-40’ standard portfolio
    My usual comment.
    For most investors, buy and hold a simple target fund is one of the best. I believe you can do worse.
    For above-average knowledge investors, there are several other good options.
    I see stocks as a simpler portion of one's portfolio. The US LC is the dominated category and SPY/VTI is a pretty good risk-adjusted index. The biggest difference is the bond portion and the older you get the more you should pay attention. For most, it's several years prior to retirement and thru retirement.
    Bond land has opportunities such as Multi sector and Non trad bond OEFs and all the way to leverage FI CEF. These funds have much higher dist and in most cases reasonable risk attributes (SD, Max draw, Sharpe, Sortino). Examples: PIMIX,SEMMX,IOFIX,JMSIX...PDI,PCI.
    For about 20 years I have used best risk/reward funds.
    I can name several for stocks/allocation...PRWCX,USMV,SPLV and maybe DSEEX, AUEIX...recently I looked at international stocks and came up with MFAIX/MFAPX.
    Most/all of these articles, opinions and research papers are discussing simple bond funds which are planes without a pilot.
  • Fisher Investments Launches Diversity Task Force
    @hank and I, and maybe other MI residents receiving retirement benefits from our state, will now have about $600M of the pension fund administered in house. I have no idea if Fisher's company did well for us or not (see Lewis' comment above about performance) nor will I be able to assess how the new managers will do with that chunk of change.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    History may make me look foolish but I don't think the market will be in serious trouble unless and until its clear that Trump will leave office which seems unlikely in the next 6 months. Since you are conservative I would go with 25% oakbx 60% the capital preservation fund and 15% the PIMCO fund or other fund you think looks best.
    You will surely be following Buffett's advice
    Rule 1 Don't lose money
    Rule 2 Don't forget rule 1
    remember that even when conservative your retirement account should provide a real return (i.e beat inflation)
    I think my suggestion will meet that goal and I hope your desired future investments will do that.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    I had my 401 set up as you suggest until recently.
    The question I asked was:
    ''Which funds of my 401 choices would you leave money in the next 6 months.''
    Got it. You're not asking about portfolio allocation, just fund selection. There's no apparent reason to have significantly different asset allocations five months from now (pre-retirement) and seven months from now (post-retirement).
    But the specific funds you have available will change in six months, when you roll over your 401k. So you're asking about funds to use now for the next six months given your target allocation.
    (If it helps you feel better, you might check to see whether your plan allows in-service distributions after age 59½, assuming you're that old. Then you could just move the money now; end of problem.)
    Frankly it won't matter which 401k funds you pick. They are all respectable.
    Whether you get your chosen large cap domestic equity exposure by using VFINX or a combo of AMRMX and VIGRX won't make a big difference. Whether you take one of these options and add PTTRX for your bond exposure, or use OAKBX for both stocks and bonds won't make a big difference either.
    Building on @MikeM's comment - if you have a stable value fund that is paying as much as an intermediate term bond fund, that might actually be a better choice than PTTRX or OAKBX for bond exposure. Long term (the past year was an anomaly for bonds) that could give you similar returns with less volatility. You could roll over your other assets while leaving money in the stable value fund (if that's what you've got) when you leave.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    @Art, you may not want to take much risk with your nest egg just before you retire, so I would be inclined to go conservative the next 6 months until you are able to rollover and set up the portfolio the way you want it for long term retirement. Yeah, you may miss a little upside but you may be more unhappy to lose what you thought you planned to start your retirement with. Just my 2 cents.
    For less risk, I would just keep OAKBX and get rid of the other funds. Not sure what a preservation fund is, but if it is similar to a GIC I would split between that and the balanced fund OAKBX at whatever percentages you're comfortable with.
    Good luck.
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    Hi @Art, (FWIW) I'd say you are conservatively invested at about 70% (cash & bonds) /30% (equity) more so than me being at about 60% (cash & bonds) /40% (equity). With this, you know your risk tolerance better than me. I'd would stay invested along the lines of the long term asset allocation you plan to use going forward in retirement. I'm also thinking the asset allocation is more important, in the near term, over fund selection since you will be reconfiguring your portfolio in six months or so. For me, though, I'd add some small/mid caps along with some emerging markets and follow a global mix of about 70% domestic and 30% foreign. I'm thinking there is presently better value to be had in foreign equity over domestic; but, I would not venture to far towards foreign.
    However, some say, you really don't need foreign holdings since about 40% of the revenue found in the S&P 500 Index now comes form abroad. Perhaps so.
    I sincerely wish you the very best in the years ahead.
    Skeet
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    I would ask myself how would I feel if the date you moved the funds coincided with a 20% bear market and you had lost a chunk? There is an increasing awareness that people who loose large amounts in early retirement bear markets sometime don't have the confidence to stay in the market for the comeback. The next time it may not snap back like it did in 2009
    Consequently I would lighten up on the developing markets and stocks
  • Portfolio changes for retirement
    I am retiring at end of March, 2020. Fund choices in workplace 401 are few. I am slowly exiting existing positions in order to preserve principal. Once I retire I will move monies somewhere where my options are more suitable for a someone in retirement. My question is, Which funds of my 401 choices would you leave money in the next 6 months.
    AMRMX, VFINX, VIGRX, OAKBX, OAKIX, FSCCX, VMVAX, PTTRX, ODMAX and a preservation trust fund.
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: Bernie Horn, Manager, Polaris Global Value Fund: (PGVFX)
    FYI:(Slide mouse to 37:20 minutes for Bernie Horn interview.)
    Bernie Horn, portfolio manager at Polaris Global Value, says that while the U.S. stocks have sharply outperformed international stocks since the financial crisis of 2008, the situation has now gotten to where foreign valuations are increasingly attractive, and he noted that if you can find the right valuations in businesses that are able to grow cash-flow over time, the stock should ultimately pay off no matter where in the world it is based. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an actively managed municipal bond fund his ETF of the Week, Pat Rowan of TIAA discusses Americans' confidence in retirement, and Craig Curlop of biggerpockets.com talks about his new book on 'house-hacking,' a strategy where you buy multi-unit properties, live in one unit and rent the others, uing the rent to pay your mortgage and effectively letting you live without having to make a monthly housing payment of your own.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe
    M* Snapshot PGVFX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/pgvfx/quote
  • Nearly 2 Years Into Early Retirement, Here’s All That I’ve Gotten Wrong
    FYI: In a comment responding to my recent blog post about making better decisions in the face of uncertainty, a reader wrote: “Life is inherently risky. To try to compensate for every contingency is irrational. We can “what if” ourselves right into a straitjacket! You retired early … you won!”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nearly-2-years-into-early-retirement-heres-all-that-ive-gotten-wrong-2019-08-19/print
  • Tom Madell Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter: Stocks Are Looking Wobbly
    I always enjoy reading Dr. Madell's perspectives.
    Because of possible downdrafts in the stock market Old_Skeet, now retired, carries more cash than perhaps most. There are several reason for this. They are 1) it provides me an additional safety net should I need additional cash for unexpected expenses where I don't have to sell securities in a down market and 2) it provides me the ability to do some equity buying during down markets.
    I'm now running what I call my all weather asset allocation (20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity) because it affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes portfolio volatility, and provides for long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type mutual funds.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth that equities generally provide which helps offset the effects of inflation.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way principal grows over time.
    Over the past five years, or so, the following years were up years for me. They were 2014, 2016, 2017, and thus far 2019 while 2015 and 2018 have been down years. With this, I now govern and invest with more caution than I did years back when I was in the accumulation phase of investing and had a higher allocation to equities.
    So, for me, Dr. Madell's comments in this months newsletter offers up some good old sage thinking and wisdom. Hopefully, it will for you as well.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Ways to Lower Your Retirement Income Risk
    Thanks John. Not much I haven't heard here but some really good suggestions bulletized in one place. One they didn't mention and I intend to use next year is working part time in retirement, both for the extra income and the social aspect that I enjoy.
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD October
    It is crazy. Consumer staples with growth rates of 3% have PE of 20 ??? Real Estate up 25 to 30% Treasuries up 30%
    Nothing is cheap but if you stay in cash you look silly at under 2% now. Until you don't.
    At 67 I am only 20% in equities. Early in retirement is not the time to swallow a 30% portfolio hit, but I have been waiting for a couple of years now.
    The contrarian play is higher inflation.
  • You’re In Your 60s And Haven’t Saved Enough. Here’s What To Do
    FYI: My wife and I are in our early 60s and, for various reasons, haven’t saved enough for retirement. What are your best suggestions for pumping up our nest egg? We already plan to continue working into our mid-60s and, if necessary, beyond.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/youre-in-your-60s-and-havent-saved-enough-heres-what-to-do-11570110334
  • Ways to Lower Your Retirement Income Risk
    https://money.usnews.com/investing/portfolio-management/slideshows/ways-to-lower-your-retirement-income-risk
    7 Ways to Lower Your Retirement Income Risk
    Learn how to generate enough income in retirement without exposing your assets to volatility.
    Annuities combat sequence of return risk.
    Lower your investment risk with dividends.
    Protect income with a variable withdrawal rate.
    Cut retirement income risk with the bucket strategy.
    Maximize Social Security benefits to increase retirement income.
    Include real estate for best retirement investments.
    Sell option contracts on existing stocks for retirement income.
  • M*: How To Create A Retirement Policy Statement
    FYI: If you start reasonably early, set aside adequate savings, and invest in a semi-sane manner, it's hard to go terribly off track with investments in the years leading up to retirement. But decumulation--the process of figuring out how to position your portfolio to deliver desired cash flows in retirement--is another ballgame.
    In retirement, a separate set of variables comes into play. Issues like asset allocation and the quality of the investments you choose are still important (which is why you still need an investment policy statement) but so are factors such as how--and how much--you'll spend from your portfolio on an ongoing basis.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/808697/how-to-create-a-retirement-policy-statement
  • Your Cash Is Earning Even Less At One Online Broker After The Fed’s Rate Cut
    I don't pay attention to MM or CD and all my cash sub is usually in HY munis. In 2018-9 I have used OPTAX and ORNAX. Sure, I know the risk and volatility and still invest in HY Munis. I invested usually at 99+% in stocks+bond OEFs and none are cash,MM,CD investments. I just keep several thousand which is about 2 months of our expense in the last 30 years while I was working and now at retirement. If we need more I just sell shares.
  • Investing 101 - What’s the best way to generate cash from your investments in retirement?
    https://globalnews.ca/news/5944687/investing-income-retirement-dividends-cash/t
    Investing 101
    What’s the best way to generate cash from your investments in retirement?
    For most of your adult life, one of the challenges of managing money is slicing off a piece of your paycheque and adding that to investments that will, hopefully, grow your nest egg over time.
  • Wall Street Is Wrong: You CAN Retire On $405K. Here's How
    Consider retiring overseas. I spent much of my youth in Thailand and hope to retire there someday. $US 405k will allow someone to live a very good retirement in a lower cost country like Thailand.