"condescension unnecessary."
Yeah, well, you did call T/A "the dismal astrology of technical analysis." I routinely support T/A so I take your comment as condescending. Perception is reality as they say.
I'm not sure what most of the rest of your post has to do with the discussion, but here's my FWIW story that may show we ain't in galaxies very far away from each other.
I hail from near dirt poor, that is, we did have real floors.
I was a bean counter for 35+ years doing major audit work in federal programs.
Been investing since 1980.Early on, our strategy was paint-by-numbers, driven by my investing mentor's guidance; investing exclusively in Magellan and then Low-Priced Stock when it was born, set the stage for a likely early retirement.
We retired financially independent at age 56.
In recent years our investment strategy has been driven by T/A.
Our market exposure is ~40% Passive/~60% Active, and primarily OEFs.
Our radar has been squarely on taxes since starting employment. We have not paid a dime in FIT/SIT since retiring in 2012 and plan to not pay a dime until RMDs in 2029.
There are three stages to investing: Accumulation, Maintenance and Disbursement. We are still in the Accumulation phase at age 69 and don't project to to even sniff the Maintenance phase until age 90. Our liquid net worth is expected to increase through the end of our projections at age 100. So drawdowns are nothing we concern ourselves with.
I have a coupla advanced, graduate level certifications in accounting and auditing.
Also...
We've been to a Super Bowl that our team came back to win in the last minute and a World Series that our team won in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7 against arguably the greatest reliever of all-time.
Unfortunately, we've never stayed at a Holiday Inn Express but hope to one day.

stillers,
we are probably in different galaxies, so will keep it 'what works' short.
am in yr 6 of FIRE (financially independent, retire early) and well past wealth accumulation mode.
my target was avg -3%/yr net worth drawdown, and have beat that by +5%.
my priority is risk , my tool is asset allocation, and my radar is on taxes.
i shifted from ~75% equity pre-retirement to ~25%, with the largest shift away from equity (40%->25%) after the 2024 election. this also included a internal shift to more intnl.
have never held a mkt-cap index fund, and for the majority of my equity :
growth : i have long allocated to GARP managers, mostly giroux and primecap.
value : i mix active mostly via wellington, and systematic via avantis\dimensional.
i have aside ~10% discretionary where i experiment with niche funds and individual stocks.
it is primarily fundamental, but sometimes i have set order limits at yearly lows.
this bucket has huge dispersion but net has been a wash.
i would never buy stocks such as tesla nor djt (nor hundreds of others) no matter what technicals spout.
finally, i have a math minor and graduate-level STEM degree , read mandelbrot's view during the GFC, keep track of academic trend-following, and have passed on technical trading since then. condescension unnecessary.

Does FD1k use T/A or just magic?

You can read what I do on my page.
I use big picture analysis with only 2 possible outcomes. I get a signal to stay in/out at 99+%.
Then, the charts(simple T/A) + other indicators must verify it, and then I trade.
The main idea is not to lose more than 3% from any last top because I have plenty. I own mostly bond OEFs. The performance must be better than 50/50. Since retirement in 2018, I easily beat it.
I don't care to beat any index or anyone. I only care about my goals.
I always sell too early; when I'm wrong, if my indicators improve, I'm back within days.
When I'm right, I hardly lose and can be out from weeks to months (in 2022, I was out 9-10 months).
My conclusions
* T/A is an art, and you must practice it and create your own system.
* I only use it on the extreme, to verify going from buy to sell. That mechanic helps me a lot.
* Over many years, my T/A works pretty well with slow bond funds, not so much with stock funds because volatility creates uncertainty.

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 5/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Rates up by +25 bps (1st increase since 12/2023)
Restricted RC 5.50%, RA 5.25%
Flexible RCP 4.75%, SRA 4.50%, IRA-101110+ 4.75%
TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.250%).
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1967/thread

Thanks.
It's good to hear Bengen.
His 4% initial w/COLA is a good start, or a good benchmark.
But there are many approaches - variations of Bengen's, dynamic approaches, increasing equity gradually in retirement, % withdrawals with or without residual values.
I have explored my own that is a bit more flexible - start with 5% initial and review every 5 yrs and reset if portfolio balance is higher. Another is modification of SWR to SWRM.
All this means that the retirement withdrawal problem is still searching for a satisfactory solution decades after Bengen's pioneering work.

Yeah my parents are taking a very flexible approach to this as they ease into retirement. they are working part time because their hobby/passion even in retirement is their work. But beyond that they are W/D 5% of the portfolio and taking trips, annoying their children by spoiling their grandchildren and just paying attention to the balance while holding a 2 year cash bucket (will go to 3 when fully retire).
I took their 8 fund capital group portfolio and turned it into a single fund capital group portfolio. its a 65/35 portfolio its a single balanced fund and very easy to manage.
I read about 5 books FOR them on the subject and in the end I was like this isn't that difficult at least as it appears.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886244/000110465925040257/tm2512919d2_497.htm
The UBS Funds
Prospectus Supplement | April 28, 2025
Includes:
• UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund
Dear Investor,
The purpose of this supplement to the Prospectuses for UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund (the "Fund"), a series of The UBS Funds (the "Trust"), dated October 28, 2024, previously supplemented, is to notify you that the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of the Trust has approved certain actions to liquidate and dissolve the Fund.
UBS Asset Management (Americas) LLC ("UBS AM"), the investment advisor to the Fund, has announced that it will cease to offer the investment strategy pursued by the Fund (the U.S. Small Cap Growth strategy). Based upon information provided by UBS AM, the Board determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate and dissolve the Fund pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the "Plan").
The liquidation is expected to be completed on or about August 1, 2025 (the "Liquidation Date"). The liquidation may be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
Liquidation of the Fund
The Plan provides that: (a) all the Fund's assets be converted into cash or cash equivalents or be otherwise liquidated and (b) the Fund distribute pro rata to its shareholders all of its existing assets, in a complete liquidation of the Fund. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any Family Funds ("Family Funds" include other UBS Funds, PACE Select funds and other funds for which UBS Asset Management (US) Inc. serves as principal underwriter), as described under "Managing your fund account—Exchanging Shares" in the Prospectuses. Shareholders may also redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under "Managing your fund account—Selling shares" in the Prospectuses.
On the Liquidation Date, all remaining shareholders will have their accounts liquidated and the proceeds will be delivered to them. The liquidation will be considered a taxable transaction, and shareholders may recognize a gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes. Shareholders may wish to consult their tax advisers regarding the effect of the Fund's liquidation in light of their individual circumstances.
In preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, the Fund's assets may be invested in money market instruments or held in cash. In this regard, the Fund will no longer be investing with a goal of achieving its investment objective, but instead to position for liquidation. To the extent the Fund holds cash or cash equivalents rather than securities or other instruments in which it primarily has invested, the Fund risks losing opportunities to participate in market appreciation and may experience potentially lower returns than the Fund's benchmark or other funds that remain fully invested.
ZS-1277
Closure of Fund to new investments and exchanges
Given the upcoming liquidation, the Board has approved the closure of the Fund to new investments, effective May 5, 2025, with the following two exceptions: (1) additional purchases by existing shareholders through certain retirement plans, for whom the closure date is July 1, 2025, and (2) purchases by existing shareholders through dividend reinvestment. This means that effective May 5, 2025, purchases by new investors, additional purchases by existing shareholders, and purchases through exchanges from other funds will cease, except as noted above. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time. Of course, shareholders will continue to be able to exchange or redeem their shares in accordance with the policies in the Prospectuses, as noted above.
Elimination of contingent deferred sales charges on redemptions
Also in connection with the liquidation, effective May 5, 2025, all contingent deferred sales charges ("CDSC") assessed on redemptions that are charged on Class A shares (on purchases over $1 million) are eliminated. With respect to exchanges of shares of the Fund for shares of another Family Fund, the length of time you held your shares of the Fund will still be considered when determining whether you must pay a CDSC when you sell the shares of the Family Fund acquired in the exchange.
Effective August 1, 2025, the Prospectuses, which also offer other series of the Trust, are revised to delete in their entirety all references to the Fund.
PLEASE BE SURE TO RETAIN THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
2
The UBS Funds
Supplement to the Statement of Additional Information | April 28, 2025
Includes:
• UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund
Dear Investor,
The purpose of this supplement to the Statement of Additional Information ("SAI") for UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund (the "Fund"), a series of The UBS Funds (the "Trust"), dated October 28, 2024, previously supplemented, is to notify you that the Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved certain actions to liquidate and dissolve the Fund.
The liquidation of the Fund is expected to be completed on or about August 1, 2025. In connection with the Fund's liquidation, effective August 1, 2025, the SAI is revised to delete in its entirety all references to the Fund.
PLEASE BE SURE TO RETAIN THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
ZS-1278

David Blanchett researched how average spending evolves during retirement.
He discovered that spending tends to decline in today's dollars
for younger retirees especially those entering their 70s.
At around age 90 to 95 spending can increase sharply
often because of significant health care costs¹.
Blanchett calls this the "retirement spending smile."
https://retirementresearcher.com/retirement-spending-smile/
¹ Many retiree's spending keeps decreasing in today's dollars for their entire lives.

@yogibearbull,
You might enjoy this book (The Prosperous Retirement):
Reviewed here (in greater detail):
https://retirementresearcher.com/retirement-spending-increases-decreases-time/

An important simplifying assumption in William Bengen’s research is that retirees spend constant inflation-adjusted amounts throughout retirement. This may be at odds with the spending patterns of many retirees. An exploration of the data should give us an idea of how people actually change their spending during retirement.
A well-known early example of spending changes over time for retirees can be found in Michael Stein’s 1998 book, The Prosperous Retirement: Guide to the New Reality. Stein says retirement happens in three phases, popularly known as the Go-Go, Slow-Go, and No-Go years of retirement.

Also, a boglehead discussion on the topic:
https://bogleheads.org/wiki/Models_of_spending_as_retirement_progresses

Thanks.
It's good to hear Bengen.
His 4% initial w/COLA is a good start, or a good benchmark.
But there are many approaches - variations of Bengen's, dynamic approaches, increasing equity gradually in retirement, % withdrawals with or without residual values.
I have explored my own that is a bit more flexible - start with 5% initial and review every 5 yrs and reset if portfolio balance is higher. Another is modification of SWR to SWRM.
All this means that the retirement withdrawal problem is still searching for a satisfactory solution decades after Bengen's pioneering work.

I'm awaiting my settlement with Vanguard Retirement funds. Has anyone received any notification concerning this class action lawsuit?
PM me if you like. I apologize for hi jack.

"But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."
"Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
and individual retirement accounts. ......

When bond share prices fall, yields rise. In the past, I have chosen to ride it down and reinvest the rising yields. But at 70 now, I think my risk tolerance will not permit such a thing anymore. I've created a cash-ballast sleeve, and moved a bunch into higher quality bonds, rather than Junk. "Time to preserve your portfolio," as quoted by someone else in this thread. :)

@larryB - We’ve held Wellesley for over 10-yrs and did well until the Fed raised rates. Prior to retirement we simply continued DCAing into investments like VWIAX. But I didn’t have a mindset allowing me to move our Wellesley investment elsewhere. So your concern about those long duration bonds is valid.

@larryB - I get it. I used to ignore active funds; then funds with er’s over .5%. Now in retirement I find I want an active fund manager(s) to conservatively manage a part of my investment. FPACX’s data is compelling:
- ~60% in equity (Domestic & International) even though our portfolio only holds 35% in equity
- all 3 managers eating their cooking to the tune of $1m+
- 5-yr upside/downside capture ratio 116/81 (pretty good blood pressure)
- top ranked returns 3 of last 4 years.
- and cash right now paying over 4%, I like that they’re looking to invest in their best ideas.
So for now, I’m looking to continue investing here.

IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I don't believe in charts, so take my comments accordingly.

Great point. The 82 bull also came after the going nowhere years of 66-82. Back then it seemed all of a sudden the baby boomers then in their early thirties woke up one day and began thinking about their retirement and so began the rush into equities. The 80s were the best of times - music, movies, TV series, etc. I don’t believe in charts either. Never met a rich chartist.

@PressmUp. Not me. I am perhaps half way through retirement and the regime might last longer than me. A big enough crash might be enticing but it would be for sport. It’s an age thing.

I disagree. Everything has a shelf life.
First, of course, they won't have the opportunity to "vote for him again no matter what" as president unless well, unless the unthinkable.
Next, regardless if NO MATTER WHAT is in CAPS or not...His base is clearly stoopid, but if any/all of you lose your job, your home, your retirement savings, the country went belly up and we're on the brink of nuclear war, a worthy % of the cultists will fold.
There are already, albeit weak, signs that some of the cardboard cut out Red Party legislators are starting to buckle. The 2-week recess couldn't come at a better time. Those a-holes are going to be getting earfuls in their districts.
And I'll conclude my participation on this by saying I'm sure few thought McCarthyism would die either.

So now Donnie is insulting people who are worried about their retirement accounts...
“The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO. “Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”
A far cry from FDR's reassuring fireside chats, eh?

But then people will shift their attention back to the destruction of the entire government instead of their retirement accounts. Can't afford to stop the destruction of the world economy until said destruction of the US government is complete. Distractions are gooood.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is full of insights.
"During an interview with NBC News’ 'Meet the Press,' Bessent called it a 'false narrative' that Americans
who are close to retiring may be reticent to do so after their retirement savings may have dropped this week
due to the stock market downturn."
“'I think that’s a false narrative,' he told moderator Kristen Welker.
'Americans who want to retire right now, the Americans who put away for years in their savings accounts,
I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations.'”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-markets-tariffs-recession.html