Does CPI Reflect True Inflation? Some on Wall Street Have Doubts

• CPI says “no big inflation” — sorry to the hundreds of experts who swore it was coming any minute now.
• S&P 500 at yet another all-time high — apparently Wall St. doesn't have doubts!!

Weakening job numbers is more concerning than a little more inflation. AI, general uncertainty about economy and tariffs are causing unemployment for college grads to be higher than general unemployment rate.
There were 30,000 - 50,000 applicants for 100-200 summer internships in top tech companies. Even small companies in small Midwest towns are getting up to 1,000 applications for one internship.
Heritage Foundation (conservative think tank) argues that broad indiscriminate tariff measures jack up production costs, disrupt American manufacturers (who rely on imported parts), prompt costly retaliatory duties, and ultimately cost U.S. jobs.
Among households where the head is 50 or older, about 23% hold more than $30,000 in non-retirement stock assets. We need that number to be > 75%!

@rforno said,

That's precisely why I am NOT in my state pension plan! My entire 403b is in a vanilla quality equity-only American Fund.

If you are a public school teacher I believe you are contributing to your state pension through monthly (payroll deductions) that are mandatory contributions to help fund the state pension fund. Your state also is required to contribute and often state's choose not to fully fund. Big problem when they don't.
Your 403(b) is an additional retirement option that you elect to contribute to individually. It is not mandatory.
In addition to 403(b) options you may also have 457 and 401(a) options.
At retirement, all teachers, who qualify (by age, years of service, etc.), will receive a pension (the State of CT in my case) based on a specific set of criteria and formula.
Your 403(b) is totally separate from your state/municipal pension. I too contributed to my 403(b).
When you separate service you can roll over your 403(b). Another option is to annuitize your 403(b). I did both.

Nope. As a university professor I had the option of selecting either the state pension or self-directed 403(b) - known as the Optional Retirement Plan - when hired. In my case the 403(b) contributions are pre-tax and 'above' my salary ... nothing I do or have touches the state pension system and I don't contribute to it myself. (Though pension and ORP folks alike can open up various pre- or post-tax 403b or 457b accounts as supplimental retirement accounts to save extra if we want.)
What you say is true for many K-12 teachers/staff in my state, but even then I believe they're also given the choice of either a traditional pension or ORP. But of course that varies by state and/or district.

@rforno said,

That's precisely why I am NOT in my state pension plan! My entire 403b is in a vanilla quality equity-only American Fund.

If you are a public school teacher I believe you are contributing to your state pension through monthly (payroll deductions) that are mandatory contributions to help fund the state pension fund. Your state also is required to contribute and often state's choose not to fully fund. Big problem when they don't.
Your 403(b) is an additional retirement option that you elect to contribute to individually. It is not mandatory.
In addition to 403(b) options you may also have 457 and 401(a) options.
At retirement, all teachers, who qualify (by age, years of service, etc.), will receive a pension (the State of CT in my case) based on a specific set of criteria and formula.
Your 403(b) is totally separate from your state/municipal pension. I too contributed to my 403(b).
When you separate service you can roll over your 403(b). Another option is to annuitize your 403(b). I did both.

This has nothing to do with the fact that he's in-bed with the crypto lobby and the PE folks are in bed with his Treasury and Commerce secretaries, right?
Keep that junk away from my retirement assets!

Bingo.

“Since the early 2000s, pension funds have increasingly added private assets to their investments.”
“Private assets didn’t measurably improve pensions’ returns, says JP Aubry, associate director
of research at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, who conducted a study on them.
Before the financial crisis of 2008-09, they outperformed broad market, passive strategies slightly,
while they underperformed after.”
“Private assets might have a certain cachet, but public markets work just fine,
says Jason Kephart, senior principal, multi-asset manager research at Morningstar.
'People who have invested in public markets over the last 15 years have done well.'”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/bitcoin-private-equity-and-other-alt-investments-are-coming-for-your-401-k-what-could-go-wrong/ar-AA1K77IJ

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064225004978/anchorglobalstrat497.htm
497 1 anchorglobalstrat497.htm 497
Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund
Advisor Class Shares – ATAGX
Institutional Class Shares – ATGSX
(a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV)
Supplement dated August 8, 2025
to the Prospectuses and Statements of Additional Information dated December 30, 2024
______________________________________________________________________________
The Board of Trustees of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV (the “Board”) has determined based on the recommendation of the investment adviser of the Anchor Risk Managed Global Strategies Fund (the “Fund”), that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on August 28, 2025.
Effective at the close of business August 8, 2025, the Fund will not accept any purchases and will no longer pursue its stated investment objectives. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders.
Prior to August 28, 2025, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO AUGUST 28, 2025 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-844-594-1226 (toll-free).
This Supplement and the existing Prospectuses dated December 30, 2024, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. Both the Prospectuses and the Statements of Additional Information dated December 30, 2024, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-844-594-1226

This has nothing to do with the fact that he's in-bed with the crypto lobby and the PE folks are in bed with his Treasury and Commerce secretaries, right?
Keep that junk away from my retirement assets!

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831114/000139834425014745/fp0094854-1_497.htm
497 1 fp0094854-1_497.htm
THE RBB FUND, INC.
WPG Partners Select Hedged Fund
Supplement dated August 7, 2025
to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) dated December 31, 2024
The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of The RBB Fund, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the WPG Partners Select Hedged Fund (the “Fund”) approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination for the Fund (collectively, the “Plan”). The Board determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Company effective as of the close of business on or about August 28, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Company’s officers.
Effective as of August 15, 2025, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will no longer accept purchases into that Fund. In addition, the Adviser is in the process of transitioning the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and/or cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective.
Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. The redemption of shares will generally be considered a taxable event.
Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the Liquidation Date, your shares will be automatically redeemed on or about the Liquidation Date at the closing net asset value per share, and you will receive your proceeds (the “Proceeds”) from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These Proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed Fund shares are held in a taxable account, and the Proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the Fund shares redeemed.
If you hold shares of the Fund in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your Proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund to reinvest or “rollover” your Proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 1-888-261-4073 (toll free) prior to the Liquidation Date of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your Proceeds.
If the redeemed Fund shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, the redemption Proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-888-261-4073 (toll free).
* * * * *
Please retain this supplement for your reference.

Thanks for the data, @catch22. No wonder many people are living paycheck to paycheck. Enough said.
Something can be said about the older generations where they manage to live within their means while save for retirement and send their kids to college.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418925005486/baf-497e.htm
97 1 baf-497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
Brown Advisory – WMC Strategic European Equity Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated August 6, 2025
to the Statutory Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2024
Capitalized terms and certain other terms used in this Supplement, unless otherwise defined in this Supplement, have the meanings assigned to them in the Statutory Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information.
1.Restriction on the Sale of Shares of the Fund to Certain Investors
Effective as of the close of business on August 8, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), the Fund will stop accepting new purchases other than those purchases as described below which will continue to be permitted. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Fund may, in its sole discretion, accept new purchases after the Closing Date from certain financial intermediaries that have entered into agreements with the Fund’s Distributor or with the Fund’s Investment Adviser, Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”). Following the Closing Date, the Fund will continue to permit the following types of investments in the Fund:
•Additional share purchases made in connection with the reinvestment of dividends or capital gains by existing Fund shareholders;
•Investments made by institutional and separately managed account investors that are clients of the Adviser; and
•Investments made through the Adviser’s 401(k) retirement plan that is maintained for use by employees of the Adviser.
The Fund reserves the right, at any time, in its sole discretion, to further modify or amend the investment limitations described above. You may be required to demonstrate your eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted.
For additional information regarding the restrictions on new purchases of shares of the Fund, please contact the Fund at 1-800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.

You can still avoid the Joneses by leasing non-premium cars. For example, Subaru advertises ~$300/mo. leases with $0 down. Many folks who sport a luxury ride cannot afford their unnecessary status symbols.
Then again, not everybody cares about things like savings and a cushy retirement.
Spending over $800/mo. per vehicle is insane. Spending $1,000/mo. for health insurance is also insane, but more often than not, people are forced to pony up.

I don't think it can be done so early. As you have noted, there is no pattern seen from past history. Many funds with high % of retirement a/c don't manage the fund at all for CGs - Fido, etc. As the funds are allowed to close books for the year at October-end, November is the earliest this info is available or may be modelled.
If a fund has high UNREALIZED gain and/or high turnover, it's a potential candidate for high REALIZED CGs. Market down years when there can be lot of redemptions can lead to high realized CGs.
One thing is certain - ETFs have no/low realized CGs.

Hi @Observant1 NO. I didn't feel you were 'picking' on the health investments. I was more or less writing 'out loud' how we have attempted to justify investment sectors for our overall portfolio of 'everything', which includes all the other stuff, too......owned real estate, retirement benefits....the whole big pile. It's always an adventure, eh?

Jeffrey Ptak shares his views about stuffing private equity/private credit into target-date strategies.
“I’m not necessarily worried about a doomsday scenario where there’s a failure in one target-date series—
say, they get redemptions and can only partially fulfill the request—
and that spooks participants in unrelated target-dates, in a kind of cascade.
That’s not unthinkable, of course, but it’s not the main thing I get hung up on.”
“Rather, it’s the risk we’ll see a gradual erosion of confidence in target-dates
as the simple, low-cost, quintessentially utilitarian retirement solution they’ve become.
Trust is a brittle thing and when you start playing around with illiquid securities—
in the name of 'optimizing' an allocation—you can test the limits of bend-but-not-break.”
https://jeffreyptak.substack.com/p/foia-gras

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 8/1/25
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.25%
TSP G Fund 4.375% (previous 4.25%).
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2122/thread

Wall Street’s Big, Bad Idea for Your 401(k)
Excerpts from a current Wall Street Journal article by Jason Zweig
The excerpts shown here are a very small section of Mr. Zweig's entire report. I stronly recommend that his report be read in it's entirety. The above link should be free to all.

Wall Street is promoting a colossal lie.

Money managers are in a desperate race to stuff illiquid, so-called private-market assets into funds anyone can buy, including your 401(k). They say we all can earn high return and low risk with nontraded “alternatives” like private equity, venture capital and private real estate.
Because private assets don’t trade, it’s the fund managers—not the market—that determine what they’re worth. That enables the managers to report much fewer and lower fluctuations than public funds do. Then they get to declare that private funds are low risk.
That’s ridiculous. In the real world, risk is the chance of losing money, which has nothing to do with how often prices are reported. Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, calls the smooth returns reported by alternative funds “volatility laundering.”
Owning an alternative fund is a lot simpler than selling it. When you own it, you might take the manager’s valuations for granted, even if that’s a bad idea. When you sell it, the valuation matters—a lot. That’s a risk.
In short, an alternative fund can claim to be low risk and to be at least partly liquid—but, sooner or later, it won’t be able to sustain both claims at once. That’s true here, and for all the other funds hoping to rope in a much wider base of everyday investors.
Remember that as politicians ease the way for alternative funds to land in your retirement plan.

@Old_Joe - I don't rightly know exactly what or which situation you are referring to but I found this article "Private Equity and Public Pensions: What’s the Return?" from CEPR Center for Economic and Policy Research. (Apr 15, 2025)
Basically what it says is that private equity does not belong in the retirement savings accounts of workers. They add risk without increasing returns.
Let me know if you were looking for something else.

LOLs all around!
I am in a holding pattern with 58% equities and more cash than ever. I perceive the recent surge of U.S. market gains as mainly based on retail investors buying into smoke and mirrors. If I am wrong, I am still sitting at what is a good safe allocation for a person very close to retirement. If I am right, I will add 2-7% to equities in a downturn, and add to bond oefs/cefs, as indicated.

Great Article from T. Rowe Price:
Insights:

— There are alternatives to the conventional strategy of drawing on a taxable
account first, followed by tax-deferred accounts (e.g., Traditional individual retirement
accounts) and then Roth accounts.
— A variety of strategies can be employed at different phases of retirement, such as
filling low tax brackets, taking tax-free capital gains, and executing Roth conversions.
— Coordinating a withdrawal strategy and a Social Security claiming strategy can
drive even more tax efficiency than either approach alone.
— If planning to leave an estate to heirs, consider which assets will ultimately
maximize their after-tax value.

Link to Full Article:
how-to-get-more-out-your-retirement-account-withdrawals.pdf
Video on the subject from Rob Berger:

First, where’s the link to the article? I don’t see it. Did I miss it?
Second, most investors should ignore politics, headlines, and constant media noise. You don’t invest based on emotion or ideology—you invest based on your financial goals and what the markets are actually doing. That part is simple.
I’ve shared my thoughts. Earlier in the year Value, International, and CEFs (like PDI). After the bear market bounce in mid-April, US Large Cap tilting Growth (VOO, QQQ).
With my own portfolio and not recommended to anyone. I never diversify since 1990. I’ve always focused on top-performing wide-range categories with strong risk/reward profiles. I’m a trader and a timer—used to own a very high percentage in stock funds, but since retirement, I mostly own bond OEFs.
Examples:
I sold PIMIX in Jan 2018 and never looked back.
I closely track Crossbridge funds.
In 2024, I used HOSIX, CLOZ, and CBYYX for the first time ever.
In 2025, I allocated a huge percentage to international bonds—also a first—and I lightened up lately. I don’t forecast—I just follow the data and what the market is showing.
Constant complaining and trashing others doesn’t help anyone get better results.