Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Trump Prosecutors vs Fed Chair Powell... GOP Senator Tillis will oppose Powell's replacement
    Hatred can make people irrational. Hatred and anger can be funneled in the wrong direction - and Trump has done this extremely well.
    The MAGA 40% are so angry at the world that losing their own health benefits and their meager retirement benefits takes a back seat. Lower their standard of living? Meh. The hatred simply rules all.
    It's chilling in that this kind of manipulation is difficult to correct/unwind. Thus the cult-like atmosphere in certain parts of the US. Very sticky and very destructive.
  • infrastructure fund returns
    If you had bought GLOFX a while ago you would be laughing now to see it running ahead of the 500 these past 12 months.
    I have a modest slice in the taxable I bought in 2022. Dumping it from the IRA in the quest for "simplification" was one of the dumber things I have done with my retirement investments recently.
    Same. I was in it probably 10 years ago and sold out ... should have just set it and forgot about it. Wish they'd make an ETF version of it, though.
  • infrastructure fund returns
    If you had bought GLOFX a while ago you would be laughing now to see it running ahead of the 500 these past 12 months.
    I have a modest slice in the taxable I bought in 2022. Dumping it from the IRA in the quest for "simplification" was one of the dumber things I have done with my retirement investments recently.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    As I enter my 8th year of retirement and concerned about the nosebleed equity valuations, and low return, high risk of HY bond funds, I’ve been in the process of reducing our bond risk by shifting from HY funds to JAAA, NEAR, and VCSH; each short term and covering the corporate and securitized areas. It’s challenging to let go of funds such as OSTIX and RSIIX but don’t feel compensated for the risk. The transition is incomplete because I really like the managers and how they communicate in language I understand.
    Our equity allocation is at 38% and mostly index funds, so to reduce the focus on mag 7, I’ve moved a chunk from VTSAX to VPCCX. Still have the lion’s share in VTSAX and VDADX. I want to add to the small investment in FPCSX from mmkt but will wait for an opportunity.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    @sma3- Thank you for your response. Our income is derived from three sources: SS, pensions, and investment income, which at this time is from fixed income and MMKT funds. The SS income will "only" drop less than $5k (due to IRMAA), the pensions have COLAs which likely will offset the IRMAA reduction, and the investment income will gradually taper down as interest rates drop.
    So it will be a while before the retirement income will drop far enough to justify the appeal process. But that's definitely a very good thing to keep a close watch on, and I thank you very much for that information.
    OJ
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    I would look to previous examples to anticipate how that might play out. Mainly leaving those already on (or close to) SS as is, Raising retirement ages, lowering monthly amounts for future recipients, elimination of COLA (perhaps). I suppose a big infusion off cash from somewhere is also possible.
    If that were where the tariff tax income were being funneled, I'd possibly be more supportive. SS pays out ~$1.3 trillion annually.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    Well, we're back in SF, and looking at the SS notice it is indeed IRMAA, and the increase is based on our 2024 income. So this is going to go on forever. Doesn't make any difference why or what they call it- the result is lower SS income every year- I suppose forever.
    MFO comes through again. Thank all of you very much for your insight and help on this. At least we don't have to fight with SS or the IRS... that's something, I guess.
    But the end result is pretty much the same- in planning don't necessarily expect a SS increase every year. In fact if you have substantial retirement income you might plan on what amounts to a "Minus COLA" kicking in at some point.
  • The Best Third... Learning "How to Spend" in Retirement
    @WABAC Because of step-up basis?
    I'm with you, no mortgage, no car payments, no educational expense, no paying FICA or funding a 401K, no child-related expenses, all adds up to higher cash flow. Here, we also pay no tax on retirement income.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    Ok, here is an interesting document that basically covers my scenario: https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10069.pdf
    The relevant example:
    "Let’s say you aren’t yet at full
    retirement age at the beginning of the
    year, but reach it in November 2026. You
    expect to earn $68,520 in the 10 months
    from January through October. During
    this period, we would withhold $1,120 ($1
    for every $3 you earn above the $65,160
    limit). To do this, we would withhold the 2
    benefit payments for January 2026 through
    February 2026, your first 2 checks of
    the year. Beginning in March 2026, you
    would receive your $600 benefit, and this
    amount would be paid to you each month
    for the remainder of the year. In 2027,
    we would pay you the remaining $80 we
    withheld in February 2026."

    How would they know what you were going to earn in a shortened year?
    "We adjust the amount of your Social
    Security benefits in 2026 based on what
    you told us you would earn in 2026
    . If
    you think your earnings for 2026 will be
    different from what you originally told us,
    let us know right away."
    The best I can figure is that that if I go over by $15, 000 they will subtract $5000 from my benefit. It appears I still come out ahead by 3x $4000 for three additional months of SS, So, $12,000 in SS, minus $5000, with a potential positive outcome of $7000.
    The wife gets a spousal benefits increase. And I still defer Medicare Part b and Medigap for both of us a few months more until I officially retire. Probably, I am missing something.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    I agree with @Observant1. I waited to start SS until I was 69 and wish I had waited until 70. The annual cost of living adjustments are a huge advantage with SS. One of the biggest uncertainties of retirement is how long you will live. Social Security is basically an insurance policy in case you live longer than expected.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    You would think that this should not be happening- from YBB's link-
    "Starting with the month you reach full retirement age, we will not reduce your benefits no matter how much you earn."
    But they have been. I guess that I should try to contact SS, though with my hearing issues I can't use the phone, so that should be an experience to look forward to. I have no idea where to even start on this.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    "Social Security provides an annual COLA which makes it more attractive than
    most (all?) single premium immediate annuities or deferred income annuities.
    I recently retired at age 62 and I'm single."

    Be aware that the SS COLA can be a significantly negative number. This year and last our monthly SS was reduced because our total income from all sources, as reported to SS by the IRS, was above whatever limit that SS uses to adjust their payment. I don't have the information paper handy right now so I can't quote it exactly. But our combined SS monthly payments went from-
    2024: $5334
    2025: $5185
    2026: $4987
    Annually that's-
    2024: $64010
    2025: $62220
    2026: $59844
    So in just three years there's been a reduction of almost $4200 in SS income. Add the actual rate of inflation to that, and our actual income is significantly decreasing rather than increasing. This will be the first year that our expenses will exceed our combined SS and pension income, and that we will actually start to decrease (draw down) our retirement savings total rather than increasing that.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    Some people view Social Security primarily through the lens of break-even amounts.
    I look at it mostly as longevity insurance.
    Social Security provides an annual COLA which makes it more attractive than
    most (all?) single premium immediate annuities or deferred income annuities.
    I recently retired at age 62 and I'm single.
    My current plan is to start Social Security payments shortly after reaching age 67 (full retirement age).
    You may want to play around with Social Security's "Online Benefits Calculator"
    and the "Open Social Security Calculator" if you haven't done so already.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    Right, I should have said "reduce". Fixed. Thanks.
    And wouldn't that statement still apply if I signed up right now? IOW, I would only be subject to the higher reduction threshold, as this is the year that I reach "full retirement age"?
    Also, saw this: "Starting with the month you reach full retirement age, you can get your benefits with no limit on your earnings".
    I take this to read that since June is the month that I reach full retirement age. Only any SS amounts from Jan 1 to May 30 are counted towards any SS reduction limit ($65,160). Which would be possibly 3 months. How that works in reality is anyone's guess.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    "If you will reach full retirement age in 2026, the limit on your earnings for the months before full retirement age is $65,160, we deduct $1 in benefits for every $3 you earn above this limit."
    If I am reading this correctly, They will only tax SS at the 1/3 rate on earned income above $65,160?
    That's when you are already took Social Security early. And that isn't tax, but a reduction in SSA payments being received.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    "If you will reach full retirement age in 2026, the limit on your earnings for the months before full retirement age is $65,160, we deduct $1 in benefits for every $3 you earn above this limit."
    If I am reading this correctly, They will only reduce SS at the 1/3 rate on an amount equal to earned income above $65,160?
    I'd consider leaving earlier than planned to stay below this limit, but then I lose my employer insurance and salary for those months. And then have to pay Part B and Megigap for two additional months. The trade off does not seem worth it.
    I.e. - I go $20,000 $15,000 over the $65,160 limitation and lose 1/3 of 2 months @ $4000 per month Social Security benefit. So, a loss of $2666 versus a gain of $20,000 salary, plus deferring Part B and Medigap (for both myself and spouse) for two additional months.
    Edit: OOPs - bad math, I would lose 1/3 of the earnings amount over $65,106, not 1/3 of the SS amount. So more like a $5000 reduction from SS, adjusting my previous example to a more likely $15,000 amount above threshold.
    Also do they calculate on gross earnings, MAGI or net (after 401K) earnings? I am assuming gross earned income, unless I discover otherwise.
  • Probably stupid Social Security question...
    Playing with SS calculator today. If I wait until full Retirement age (June 2026) I get $114 more per month.
    Meanwhile, I forego about $20,000 waiting 5 months. It will take 175 months (14.6 years) to recoup.
    As I will only be receiving salary for 6 months this year (thinking of taxes here), I am thinking it is foolish not to sign up now. I haven't done a full analysis (again, taxes), but wonder what I might be overlooking.
  • The Best Third... Learning "How to Spend" in Retirement
    Great interview by the author of a recent research paper that delves into an alternative to the 4% rule and his website that allows individuals to play around with their own numbers. The site is free (at this moment in time).
    Interview with Stefan Sharkansky, author of the research paper “The Only Other Spending Rule Article You Will Ever Need.”

    The Best Third Website:
    The Best Third is completely free to use, and we don’t receive compensation of any kind—from users, advisors, or anyone else.
    We’re still in the early stages, testing and refining the service based on real feedback from retirees and advisors. Our priority is to make The Best Third as helpful, accurate, and easy to use as possible before we think about charging for it.
    In the future, we may explore different ways to support the service sustainably. But for now, our focus is simple: learn from users and keep improving.
    https://thebestthird.com/
    His Research paper:
    This work makes novel contributions to the body of knowledge on
    retirement asset decumulation. Our main contribution is a practical and
    actionable framework for both construction of the retirement portfolio
    and a strategy for spending down the portfolio during the retiree’s life-
    time. We propose and justify a portfolio consisting solely of an equity
    index fund and a ladder of inflation-indexed bonds, held to maturity,
    along with rules for determining the allocation between the bond ladder
    and equities
    The Only Other Spending Rule Article You Will Ever Need
  • Happy New Year! January 2026 Issue is live.
    I'm reporting, not recommending, big guy.
    No worries, I definately wasn't being critical of you, David. Just grousing about the jargon of the industry in their prognostications. And like you, I'm not out to beat anybody but my own ability to SWAN with an eye on being able to do so well into my retirement years with an acceptable RoR.
    Irony of ironies, of all the AI platforms, I have not yet played with Claude!!
  • 2026 Portfolio Analysis and Investment Plans
    @Observant1
    Sorry to hear that.
    Their loss, I am certain.
    I hope you are/were able to parlay that into improved circumstances, better job, better pay, early retirement...
    Thanks!
    I can't really complain about the situation.
    My employer was a good company with many fine people.
    A reasonable severance payment (not life-changing but ok) was made.
    I was planning to retire in 2-3 years but decided to retire early instead.