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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • A replicating portfolio. Devo's April exercise
    I'm not sure I understand what you're visualizing, but most people probably shouldn't be fiddling with their positions all the time.
    I enjoy the process of replicating a portfolio--as you described it-- because at this stage in my life I have become interested in funds with average, or better, returns, and betas below 1. I am also a fan of Sortino, Treynor, and Martin.
    I wouldn't say it's different this time. But things are different than they were a few years ago. And without looking, I'm not sure the market, as defined by the 500, has been all that kind in the 21st century. So anything approaching, or exceeding, "market" performance with less beta is of interest to me for my IRA at least.
    What I'm wondering about is how far this exercise can be pushed. So far I have only exercised a few funds, sectors, and portfolios; e.g. IYK looks much better than FSUTX. And here is LCORX.
  • Portfolio trackers
    Very interesting discussion on quicken. I don’t use it but my wife does … will try and see if I can download my Schwab accounts into quicken and then set up the account on Morningstar legacy. I’m mainly interested in the portfolio X-ray feature and being able to analyze my holdings by equity style. Years ago I used to do that on Morningstar.
  • CD
    My friend Crash,,,, my horizon is no longer 15 years ,,,, you youngsters can afford to wait.
  • CD
    Yes, gotcha. I am just looking at the 5-year performance. It lands in the top 7% of category, but at +1.89%, it doesn't seem worth the trouble, eh? Of course, the Covid-put is a big piece of that picture. ...Going back FIFTEEN years, it's up by 4.2%, in the top 21 percent of category. That sounds much more worth our time. It does not own junk.
  • CD
    @yugo - The yields on my 5-year CDs are 5.0-5.1%, all non-callable. I bought them when rates peaked in 2023, so they have 4+ years left until maturity. Some of the shorter term CDs will start maturing in May, and I doubt if I’ll be able to buy new 5-years with yields that high. I may buy some federal agency bonds that are still yielding more than 5%, but they are callable. Or I might start investing in intermediate bond funds again if it looks like rates are stabilizing.
  • CD
    I don’t ever buy CDs with automatic rollover. When they mature, I either reinvest in CDs with the highest rates, Treasuries or short-term to intermediate bond funds. I also have set up several CD ladders extending out 5 years, with yields averaging more than 5%. If yields drop, I’ll continue to get good yields from my ladders.
    Look at it this way, I don’t own or track a single bond fund that has returned 5% over the past 10 years. My CD ladders will provide me a guaranteed yield of 5%. What’s not to like about that?
    Could I ask what are the yields on the the 5-year legs of your CD ladders? Are these callable?
  • Big T data leak
    T-Mo was a HORROR SHOW in terms of repeated data breaches over the years. Like they were an annual event sometimes. I finally dumped them and went to T last January and it's been a much better experience ... plus I'm getting better rates/coverage, too.
  • Trump Media
    That is what a SPAC is. It's a blank-check company that raised money first, then has 2 years to look for suitable acquisitions, and if not successful, just return that money to shareholders.
    Even the rich and famous Bill Ackman failed to find a suitable acquisition for its grandiose SPAC - or, he came up with a very twisted and complex ideas that were rejected by the regulators, and then the time ran out.
    There is a popular fund here (manager DS) that bets on many SPACs not succeeding in their acquisition attempts. So, these funds invest in SPACs at some discounts ahead of their termination dates and then get 100%, a safe return from a rather unsafe vehicle.
  • Big T data leak
    I have had credit freezes on al our accounts since we were notified ( years ago) that our data had been hacked three times in one year.
    Blue Cross Blue Shield
    Yale New Haven Hospital (this year got hacked again for third time !)
    and People's Bank. They lost an UNENCRYPTED DATA TAPE in the back seat of a company car. It had not only all the usual but also balances, net worth etc (we had to fill that out to open account) etc.
    I have never had to undo the freeze, although one small card we use would not increase our credit limit unless we did, although we have been customers for three decades. Visa our major card was more than happy to double it when we asked.
    Supposedly you can undo it for a day if you have to apply for credit.
    Since then, we have had our information stolen at least two times a year. This year we have already hit three.
    The only thing the companies who get hacked ever offer is "Credit monitoring", but this will not work if your account is frozen. So to take advantage of their "recompense" you have to undo the best defense against a real hack there is.
  • Fido ETF Fees
    Simplify has $ 4 Billion AUM. Maybe not Vanguard ( or Fidelity ) but they have accumulated this in only a couple of years
    I don't quite understand why FIDO feels the need to do this other than to make $. Is their role in ETFs more involved than buying and selling stocks? Do they participate in the creation and redemption process and thus incur extra costs?
  • CD
    I don’t ever buy CDs with automatic rollover. When they mature, I either reinvest in CDs with the highest rates, Treasuries or short-term to intermediate bond funds. I also have set up several CD ladders extending out 5 years, with yields averaging more than 5%. If yields drop, I’ll continue to get good yields from my ladders.
    Look at it this way, I don’t own or track a single bond fund that has returned 5% over the past 10 years. My CD ladders will provide me a guaranteed yield of 5%. What’s not to like about that?
  • Artisan Developing World Fund (APDYX)
    "Not too long ago I sought out a global allocation fund that invested in all ranges of assets, regardless of region or size."
    Many moons ago I tried for several years to achieve something close to that using various funds of the American Funds company (without loads). I wasn't terribly successful.
  • Artisan Developing World Fund (APDYX)
    You make very good points, @Devo. Several of your arguments could serve to buttress the choice of the "go-anywhere" style of portfolio management. I could be persuaded that an amateur investor ought not choose funds or securities on the basis of asset, size, style, factor, etc., but that he/she should seek out the best bunch of PMs who have totally free rein. I think it was Mike Holland who said many moons ago that all an investor need was a good balanced fund.
    Not too long ago I sought out a global allocation fund that invested in all ranges of assets, regardless of region or size. There seemed to be very few such animals, and even fewer that excelled. Maybe it's too much to expect of a single management team. RPGAX and FPACX are pretty good and FBBAX has had some decent years while MDLOX fails to excite at all. I find that I'm not ready to consolidate my stable of funds and put the whole pie into two or three offerings. It might work for someone else.
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    @yugo, almost ALL analytics data at M*, Yahoo Finance, MFO Premium are based on monthly return data. Computational needs nay be 4x with weekly data, 30x with daily data.
    IMO, weekly data is a good compromise after so many years of monthly data use. But vendors think they have more pressing issues.
    BTW, Stock Rover (SR) uses daily data, so its MPT stats differ from most others. But it has other flaws.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX
    The main problem with
    I've not been a fan since losing money investing in ARIVX (I think that was Cinnamond's first solo adventure with his "disciplined" style).

    I won't try to defend Mr. Cinnamond's record or explain why I find his approach compelling - I've done this on a
    different thread - and I can sympathize with the feelings one gets from a losing investment that sometimes takes year not to pay off. But to correct something you have said for others: ARIVX was Cinnamond's third fund as a manager and, I believe, second as a lead after ICMAX.
    In my experience (and I've invested in three Cinnamond funds), his funds tend to go through a long period of flat performance, followed by fairly rapid appreciation bursts, followed by another period of flat performance. All of this can be readily understood within the technicalities of his style. So, when one is unfortunate to invest towards the end of the run, losses - though rather modest losses - would follow should one sell out before the next run or if Cinnamond decides to liquidate the fund (as he - rather objectionably, imo - did with ARIVX).
    To be fair, if you wait for and hold on through the run, the returns might be quite impressive. I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it. Similarly, ICMAX returned ~ 100% over Cinnamond's tenure there (roughly, 2006 - 2011) while SP500 barely broke even during that time.
    I think you touched on several good points. I mentioned Arnott before. Both did well when markets went down, but since 2009, PAUIX had a terrible performance compared to the easy SPY. Finding compelling risk-reward funds is what I have done since 2000. It is part of my system, but I stopped following Cinnamond more than 10 years ago.
    The guy also jumps from one fund to another = not a great idea.
    The main problems:
    1) Is he going to be another Arnott in the next 5 years?
    I hope not. I have years of experience w Cinnamond and have a reasonable expectation that this will be the case, but most cannot predict the future w 100% accuracy. Those who can grow their money at a double-exponential rate, causing them to spend less time on forums...
    2) How much patience is someone supposed to have?
    My personal investment horizon is 5 - 10 y.
    3) What % of your portfolio are you investing with him? The less you invest, the more it's insignificant. For me this is major.
    Currently ~ 10% of retirement, but I have just learned of his new fund and may invest more in the future. The main thing holding me back is not Cinnamond's investment approach, but what he did in liquidating ARIVX. To put it bluntly, imo, that was gutless and he let a lot of people down who trusted him to work through the cycle. If that is something you find significant, I am with you 100%.
    4) How do you know when in the start, middle, or end of the cycle? Remember, markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. Prof Shiller claimed in 2012, based on valuation, that SPY would make only 4% after inflation in the next 10 years, it made 11%
    (link)
    As I tried to explain before, I do not believe myself to be a capable market timer. At most, I pick an investment and look for a good entry point over a few weeks. However, if I were to judge a good entry point for myself, based on my experience w Cinnamond ("flat-burst-flat" [repeat]), I would be most comfortable doing so when his fund has been flat for a while - one of the reasons I invested a substantial amount in PVCMX right after learning about it a few days ago. His max DD's also tend to be rather small, so the main risk - in my eyes - is opportunity cost.
    5) Cinnamond plays timing hugely, owning less than 20% in stocks is difficult to grasp.
    But, I'm a flexible investor who looks beyond categories and is interested in total portfolio risk-reward performance.
    Someone's style and goals matter a lot when selecting funds.
    How many funds do you own, what trading are you doing,
    I think you are misinterpreting Cinnamond's strategy - or, else, I misunderstand it. The way I see it, he looks for "value" and will buy it in any market irrespective of timing. If he is low on equity, it means he simply cannot find enough value available.
    I own a whole bunch of funds but most with only a toe-hold position: either closed or ones I'd like to make myself keep track of more closely.
    Sadly, I am often time-constrained and cannot properly focus on investing for extended periods. When I have time, I sometimes do a bit of equity trading, but that's about it.
    I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it.

    What % did you make less than SPY or PRWCX?
    Unfortunately, MStar no longer provides the record for ARIVX and I could not find another place to chart it w div. I'd invested very early on, perhaps, in the first couple of months - since I followed Cinnamond from ICMAX - w a decent entry point. I remember I was net positive in the end but would not venture on the %. If you can find where to chart it, I would be curious of the PRWCX comparison, since I also own that fund.
  • Mutual Fund Managers who Left and came Back
    Hi yugo,
    I invest where markets tell me.
    1995-2000 US LC 100% indexes
    2000-2010 Value, SC, international mainly in 3 funds FAIRX,OAKBX, SGIIX
    Since 2010 mainly US LC+ PIMIX until 2018. Then mainly bond funds.
    In 2009 PAUIX(Arnott) + Cinsmond looked great, 6 months after the bottom they lagged badly, I sold both and never bought again.
    The idea is not to fight markets but to join them. In my world managers must be at the top 30% in the last 3-6 (maybe 9 months). If they don't I sell, I don't care why they lag. So, this easy system guarantee that my funds are at the top. I also look at risk-adjusted performance.
    Hi FD100,
    That sounds like you are market-timing, albeit on a year-scale.
    For that to work, one needs, imo:
    1. To either have a really good "intuitive" feel for it. I know people like that, but - unfortunately - am not one of them. Or
    2. To have a strategy, which works over years. This is a bit problematic, imo, since any good strategy typically gets "discovered" and arbitraged out on the scale of years.
    It sounds like you are relying on the "strategy" approach and it had worked for quite a while for you. This is great! (Though, if you've been mainly in bonds since 2018, you might have lost quite a bit in potential equity returns - but perhaps your personal circumstances warrant that.)
    My personal approach is rather different. As an absolute return investor, I mainly care about how much I make on the annual bases irrespective of what the market does. So, if my manager delivers, say, 10% on average over 5-10 y w good risk/volatility metrics while some market segment goes up 50% in a particular year - I am happy for both myself and for the guy that got the 50. It takes talent as well as investment expertise superior to mine, however, to do it across different markets. This is why I put so much stock in selecting the right person to manage my investments - one who has the skills to, as you put it, "fight the market" when it goes against them and to get the superior returns when the market - inevitably - turns. Just a different approach...
  • Big T data leak
    You don't own your purchase history or banking records -- the respective companies do. They in turn can sell/offer it to whomever they want, and in some cases, 'the market' thinks it's good to contribute such information to the credit agencies to build more detailed profiles on everyone.
    My ass. They do it because it's profitable to them.
    But that said, they're nowhere foolproof. I downloaded a controversial 'credit' report from a large data broker company mentioned recently in a major MSM article and was laughing not only what they collected but how hideously wrong or incomplete it was ... which only reinforced my sense that as a hacker, how I manage my information 'trail' and data leakage over the past 30-ish years has been for the most part quite good. :)
    I wish I had those hacker skills of yours kid. I laugh also when I review my credit bureau reports for the same reasons. Despite numerous attempts to correct their info through their designated channels the same old wrong stuff still exists.
  • Big T data leak
    Just wondering, when or where or how I ever gave these 3 entities + two I never heard of (thanks @rforno) the right to comb through any of my files or data batches to produce their rating/scores. Yes I know that it's all required to open accounts blah, blah, blah but how, when, where? Wouldn't just one of them be enough? Hell even today I had to give Intuit nearly everything but my first born in order to use their tax software. What does my phone number have to do with filing my taxes? Just ranting and raving because I can.
    You don't own your purchase history or banking records -- the respective companies do. They in turn can sell/offer it to whomever they want, and in some cases, 'the market' thinks it's good to contribute such information to the credit agencies to build more detailed profiles on everyone.
    But that said, they're nowhere foolproof. I downloaded a controversial 'credit' report from a large data broker company mentioned recently in a major MSM article and was laughing not only what they collected but how hideously wrong or incomplete it was ... which only reinforced my sense that as a hacker, how I manage my information 'trail' and data leakage over the past 30-ish years has been for the most part quite good. :)
  • Real life results from the balanced fund approach as you approach retirement
    5.75 years is far too short a time frame to characterize your investment prowess. (If it will make you feel any better, famed investor John Hussman has managed an annualized return of 0.09% over the past 5 years with his flagship fund, HSGFX, according to M*.)
    The others are spot-on. The S&P has been on a romp for many years. Value stocks have suffered. Most of us reach an age where not losing money becomes more important than out-running the indexes. So a defensively positioned investor should not expect to beat the market. Plus, indexes are just that. They do not reflect the impact of management fees, trading costs, record keeping and other “real world” expenses. Take all fund ratings with a grain of salt. Sometimes they’re indicative of future performance. But not always.
    You are correct that most balanced funds didn’t protect in 2022. With the 10-year sitting somewhere around 1 or 2% bonds were a dicey proposition in the years preceding ‘22. I’m not even confident the 4.2% today is attractive - but it’s a lot better than a few years ago. That said, I think 2022 was a bit of an outlier in terms of the carnage bond funds suffered.
    All depends on needs and your own risk tolerance, but for future reading you might take a look at alternative funds. They’ve received a lot of press in recent years owing perhaps to the issues with balanced funds you mention. Like any sector - some good ones and plenty of bad as well.
  • market commentary from Eric Cinnamond @ PVCMX
    I'll let you know in a few years, but you might have to remind me.