BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024 As someone who makes most of his money in bonds I never understood why look mostly at high rated bond funds. I want my funds to have a good risk/reward and the above don't do that. Higher-rated bonds have the highest correlation to rates with high volatility.
More than a year ago I posted about 3 good funds managed by David K. Sherman
RPHIX,CBLDX,RSIIX and can be held another 2
years while rates go down. The first one is the closest bond fund for a cash "sub".
The other 2 are very good generic bonds with yield about 7-8% + low duration. This combo proved to be much better. See the chart (
https://schrts.co/XqbrJhJz).
Every year I find plenty of opportunities, see a chart of THOPX,NVHIX/NVHAX,RSIVX/RSIIX,BND (
https://schrts.co/bAbYcJwv)
What is wrong with making 8+% in 2024 with low volatility?
BTW, the above is a good reason for me to hardly ever hold for
years a typical HY bond fund. Again, high volatility + yield lower than CBLDX,RSIIX.
Treacherous September is Leaving Traders Everywhere on Edge - Bloomberg Market Analysis I'll step aside from previous
years equity markets performance during September and October for whatever reasons; and note that the next 2 full months will remain a full political battle for the future of this country, that the middle east is still 'on fire', that the Ukraine continues to attack within Russia with drones, that the U.S. has stated that Iran should not provide drones/missiles to Russia and that Russia continues to destroy important targets in Ukraine. There likely remains 20 other items that are not in the 'big' news, at this time.
POSTED: September 3, Tuesday at 9:30 am.
ADD: you may use the link to follow the sectors markets when the U.S. markets are open. One may bookmark this page or save the link to your electronic device for future views.
Major global and U.S. etf categories This list is set with
%Chg column (daily), which will indicate near real time changes while the U.S. markets are open; being from most positive to most negative returns. The right side of this data provides 'technical' buy/sell indicators (opinion).
Treacherous September is Leaving Traders Everywhere on Edge - Bloomberg Market Analysis My results == 2 of the last 4 years Sept was down, 4 of the last 4 years Oct. was down. You would think the odds say Oct should be up this year or will it be a self fulfilling outcome due to all the stories, comments? One other item, over the last 4 years I've never been up more than 7 months of the year. 3 years were up 7 months and down 5, 1 year (2022) up 5 months down 7. This year I'm already up 7 months so far. (This is not scientific detail as my spending and hence monthly outcome is different from anyone else but gives me a ball park picture of how Mr. market behaves.
BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024 Thanks for the explanation. My biggest bond fund holding is FADMX, followed by FTBFX, FCNVX, PTIAX and FAGIX. I’ve stuck mostly to Fidelity funds for simplicity and ease in rebalancing. I also have a considerable number of CDs and Treasuries in ladders extending out 5 years. Now that interest rates are dropping, I’m reinvesting maturing issues into bond funds.
Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances BF,
No pension or any other safety net here.
As to planning tools, the only one I use is the M* portfolio which I started using about 7 years ago when I realized that I had way more cash than I thought I had which meant I was unrealistically risk shy.
I have only spent on what I needed and had worked when work was available. All the good things that happened to me are not because I planned any of them. My success rate of my long term planning is near zero if not zero. I do not plan for financial outcomes, and hence, I do not need to use any tools. May be I fall under your category of "wing it as man plans and God laughs."
31 Years of Stock Market Returns except when you’re over 75 the number of years you have to fund left are less than 20 and very possibly less than 10
Fidelity Automatic Account Builder changes This is a nice feature I learned from
@msf years ago. In the long run, it help to build sizable positions in institutional shares of OEFs. The $5 spend pays itself many times over from having lower expense ratio.
Does Schwab offers similar fearure ?
31 Years of Stock Market Returns I’m in rare agreement with
@Baseball_Fan on this one.
Yes, over the long haul markets go up. Equities beat cash and bonds over very long periods. It’s been demonstrated that dead investors outperform living ones. But there are always lurking the
unknown / unexpected downdrafts. When these
”ripples in space time” do occur investors often react irrationally. Dump and run is pretty common unless maybe you’re a
”steely-nerve” manager at a big investment house, hedge fund, pension fund or endowment with a sizable amount of your AUM locked-up for
years.
Most of us mere mortals invest in the real perceived everyday world. Setting a 25-30 year time horizon and then shutting your eyes is harder than it might sound. The fact that we are visiting this site is proof we haven’t shut our eyes to our investments. When a ‘29 or 2,000 or ‘08 comes along, it feels like the morning after drinking a bad bottle of booze. Lying flat on the floor, common sense and rationality often fly out the door.
31 Years of Stock Market Returns
Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances AND MaxFi and an everything you'd ever want to know
LINK. Well, perhaps; but there's even a link to the Bogelheads and a discussion there. And don't miss the videos, too. SCROLL down the multi link page.
All I want is a real portfolio returns list that can be verified from prior
years. If one finds that list, please link here. Thank you.
Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances @mark. Thanks for sharing that link. Mr .Kotlikoff convinced me his product is not for me. Having been retired for almost six
years I have figured out that the finances of retirement are an always moving target that will defy precision modeling ,,, even from a Harvard economist who has published 3.64 million articles.
Lewis Braham Does Gold … After several
years of high inflation and geopolitical conflict, we sold the entire gold position.0, IAU, this summer. It was very volatile but we held on that resulted a modest gain.
If we venture into precious mretal, not so much the miners, we will use a more diversified vehicle such as PRPFX as
@hank suggested above.
Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances Thanks
@Mark. Your link provide content may be useful for investors. I look at MaxiFi several
years ago and decided it was not for us. We have relatives who work in wealth management business. From what I see over the
years, their returns are really pedestrian in light of high fees they charge.
Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances I couldn't open the link but googled Kotlikoff and found it on his substack page.
You get what you pay for. Fido is free. MAxFi (Kotlikoff) costs $89 a year, but you only need to run it once and then maybe a few years latter. They will save your data as best I can tell
I have been pretty impressed by MaxiFi, and consider it money well spent, although it is best for people who are making decisions prior to retirement like "can I afford to retire now" or when to take Social Security
I suspect most people would come at spending decisions on irregular basis ie "Can I afford that trip this year"
MAxifi tells you what the max is you can spend every year. A little strange, as I assume most people worried about retirement are having trouble saving enough, not overspending in retirement
