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Could I ask what are the yields on the the 5-year legs of your CD ladders? Are these callable?I don’t ever buy CDs with automatic rollover. When they mature, I either reinvest in CDs with the highest rates, Treasuries or short-term to intermediate bond funds. I also have set up several CD ladders extending out 5 years, with yields averaging more than 5%. If yields drop, I’ll continue to get good yields from my ladders.
Look at it this way, I don’t own or track a single bond fund that has returned 5% over the past 10 years. My CD ladders will provide me a guaranteed yield of 5%. What’s not to like about that?
I hope not. I have years of experience w Cinnamond and have a reasonable expectation that this will be the case, but most cannot predict the future w 100% accuracy. Those who can grow their money at a double-exponential rate, causing them to spend less time on forums...The main problem withI think you touched on several good points. I mentioned Arnott before. Both did well when markets went down, but since 2009, PAUIX had a terrible performance compared to the easy SPY. Finding compelling risk-reward funds is what I have done since 2000. It is part of my system, but I stopped following Cinnamond more than 10 years ago.I've not been a fan since losing money investing in ARIVX (I think that was Cinnamond's first solo adventure with his "disciplined" style).
I won't try to defend Mr. Cinnamond's record or explain why I find his approach compelling - I've done this on adifferent thread - and I can sympathize with the feelings one gets from a losing investment that sometimes takes year not to pay off. But to correct something you have said for others: ARIVX was Cinnamond's third fund as a manager and, I believe, second as a lead after ICMAX.
In my experience (and I've invested in three Cinnamond funds), his funds tend to go through a long period of flat performance, followed by fairly rapid appreciation bursts, followed by another period of flat performance. All of this can be readily understood within the technicalities of his style. So, when one is unfortunate to invest towards the end of the run, losses - though rather modest losses - would follow should one sell out before the next run or if Cinnamond decides to liquidate the fund (as he - rather objectionably, imo - did with ARIVX).
To be fair, if you wait for and hold on through the run, the returns might be quite impressive. I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it. Similarly, ICMAX returned ~ 100% over Cinnamond's tenure there (roughly, 2006 - 2011) while SP500 barely broke even during that time.
The guy also jumps from one fund to another = not a great idea.
The main problems:
1) Is he going to be another Arnott in the next 5 years?
My personal investment horizon is 5 - 10 y.2) How much patience is someone supposed to have?
Currently ~ 10% of retirement, but I have just learned of his new fund and may invest more in the future. The main thing holding me back is not Cinnamond's investment approach, but what he did in liquidating ARIVX. To put it bluntly, imo, that was gutless and he let a lot of people down who trusted him to work through the cycle. If that is something you find significant, I am with you 100%.3) What % of your portfolio are you investing with him? The less you invest, the more it's insignificant. For me this is major.
As I tried to explain before, I do not believe myself to be a capable market timer. At most, I pick an investment and look for a good entry point over a few weeks. However, if I were to judge a good entry point for myself, based on my experience w Cinnamond ("flat-burst-flat" [repeat]), I would be most comfortable doing so when his fund has been flat for a while - one of the reasons I invested a substantial amount in PVCMX right after learning about it a few days ago. His max DD's also tend to be rather small, so the main risk - in my eyes - is opportunity cost.4) How do you know when in the start, middle, or end of the cycle? Remember, markets can be irrational for a lot longer than you think. Prof Shiller claimed in 2012, based on valuation, that SPY would make only 4% after inflation in the next 10 years, it made 11%
(link)
I think you are misinterpreting Cinnamond's strategy - or, else, I misunderstand it. The way I see it, he looks for "value" and will buy it in any market irrespective of timing. If he is low on equity, it means he simply cannot find enough value available.5) Cinnamond plays timing hugely, owning less than 20% in stocks is difficult to grasp.
But, I'm a flexible investor who looks beyond categories and is interested in total portfolio risk-reward performance.
Someone's style and goals matter a lot when selecting funds.
How many funds do you own, what trading are you doing,
Unfortunately, MStar no longer provides the record for ARIVX and I could not find another place to chart it w div. I'd invested very early on, perhaps, in the first couple of months - since I followed Cinnamond from ICMAX - w a decent entry point. I remember I was net positive in the end but would not venture on the %. If you can find where to chart it, I would be curious of the PRWCX comparison, since I also own that fund.I've invested early in ARIVX and did make money on it.
What % did you make less than SPY or PRWCX?
Hi FD100,Hi yugo,
I invest where markets tell me.
1995-2000 US LC 100% indexes
2000-2010 Value, SC, international mainly in 3 funds FAIRX,OAKBX, SGIIX
Since 2010 mainly US LC+ PIMIX until 2018. Then mainly bond funds.
In 2009 PAUIX(Arnott) + Cinsmond looked great, 6 months after the bottom they lagged badly, I sold both and never bought again.
The idea is not to fight markets but to join them. In my world managers must be at the top 30% in the last 3-6 (maybe 9 months). If they don't I sell, I don't care why they lag. So, this easy system guarantee that my funds are at the top. I also look at risk-adjusted performance.
You don't own your purchase history or banking records -- the respective companies do. They in turn can sell/offer it to whomever they want, and in some cases, 'the market' thinks it's good to contribute such information to the credit agencies to build more detailed profiles on everyone.Just wondering, when or where or how I ever gave these 3 entities + two I never heard of (thanks @rforno) the right to comb through any of my files or data batches to produce their rating/scores. Yes I know that it's all required to open accounts blah, blah, blah but how, when, where? Wouldn't just one of them be enough? Hell even today I had to give Intuit nearly everything but my first born in order to use their tax software. What does my phone number have to do with filing my taxes? Just ranting and raving because I can.
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