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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    back to primecap topic, from IAV :
    "...I won’t be buying either of the two reopened funds, but please do not take that as any indication of a lack of confidence or conviction in the funds and the managers. I’m not buying the funds because...I already have a lot of exposure to PRIMECAP's stock pickers...
    Yes, PRIMECAP has trailed 500 Index over the past three years (by around 1% per year). However, the active fund has beaten the index fund over the past five, ten and fifteen years..."
  • Things I'm Watching....
    Sitting tight. Normal 10% cash allocation is at 15% pending a sizable withdrawal / distribution later this summer. Than back to 10%. Labor is in short supply so I don’t know when the infrastructure work will begin.
    I watch the precious metals. If I were going to take a stab at something it would be GLTR. There’s a certain “fun” aspect to playing in that area. But that stuff has had a few good years and I don’t usually buy things that have risen a lot. Don’t usually mention specific CEFs, but I watch (and have owned in the past) GGN which plays in the miners and appears to be a pretty gentle behaving security considering its exposure to gold. But, again, it’s had a couple hot years recently, so not buying.
    I watch scotch brands and prices. Testing a bottle of Glenfiddich 12-year right now and quite impressed. Enjoyed some Glenfarclas 12-year recently on United. Great stuff, but at $79 will need to grow the portfolio a bit more. United’s scotch is better than their planes.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    @Tarwheel - never would I claim that FCNTX is an S&P 500 clone. It's far from it. At the time I sold what it hadn't been doing was beating up on the S%P 500 like it had in prior years. I blamed it on the growth of the massive AUM. I owned it close to 30 years.. largely due to it's skilled manager.
  • .
    Thanks Everyone. It’s my impression I came out ahead. As @msf noted, there is no tax consideration being in a Roth IRA. Maybe a better way to look at it is I own more shares of the same CEF now for no additional cost (as I reinvested roughly the earlier cash value).
    This might make a worthwhile thread on CEFs if anyone is so inclined. I’ve for several years owned 1 or 2. I view these as a way of broadening out / diversifying a portfolio. Also, as a way of adding a little extra “octane” to total return because most employ leverage.
    The way they trade drives me nuts. As @BaluBalu pointed out in another thread they are used by some as trading vehicles. And as @Mark mentioned in another thread they are largely owned by institutions. The latter fact would seem to indicate that smaller investors have a better than average chance of getting burned by these. If you think interest rates will fall, they should rise in value to the extent that they employ leverage (and falling rates = lower borrowing costs).
    What are the incentives for the manager to perform well or to stick to the fund’s mandate? I’ve read that their fee is based on total amount including levered amount. OK. Mutual fund managers have an incentive to attract more investors and sell more shares and increase the funds’ AUM. But a CEF cannot issue more shares. What incentives keep the manager on the straight and narrow?
    I do understand that these often trade at a discount to NAV. Is the manager’s fee based on NAV or share price? Does each have a board of directors elected by shareholders? I think so.
    Why is it that the share price of so many of these drop rapidly in the first year or 2 of operation? Often they will fall 15-25% in the first year or two and then begin a slow recovery. Obviously, they don’t look like a good value when first issued. Is that just raw luck or is some other factor at work?
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    FCNTX is no S&P clone. It rose about 15% in January alone. I’ve owned it for 20+ years and it’s the best performing fund in my portfolio.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    Sure makes sense…. I’ve also got a lot invested in SPY too. It’s certainly been the place you wanted to be the last 15 years
  • Current CDs are Compelling
    It's true that there are only a handful of offerings right now, but I just took a quick and arbitrary look at 3 years out and there are eight between 4.7 and 4.85%. I might do a Morgan Stanley in those, because how much longer will Moneymarket SUTXX be paying 5.18%?
    Add: In Treasuries, 7 offerings @4.55% maturing 1/27. Another possibility.
  • Vanguard May Fire Customers Not Online
    This is gonna really throw into chaos a lot of old timers who joined Vanguard in the 70s thru 90s era when its low-cost approach was thought to be the greatest innovation since sliced bread. I know one such person (an otherwise intelligent hands-off investor) who was puzzled by their push to make people switch to ETFs a few years ago. “What the heck is an ETF?” he asked me recently.
    Phone support? Don’t know about Vanguard. But TRP should pay you to call in, so poor is the “support.”
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    Primecap started out as a mid cap growth, evolving over time into a large cap that straddled the growth/blend boundary. Core launched as a large cap blend as I recall. It has usually trailed Primecap in performance, as growth has generally led value/blend for many years. I tend to think of Primecap as an AIO, covering both VPCCX and VHCAX.
    M*, Primecap: The Shades of Difference Among Its Funds
    As you've no doubt noticed, all three funds invest about 1/8 of their portfolio abroad. I happen to like this (bigger pool to fish in), though others prefer to invest strictly domestically.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    Buying into the S&P 500 seems like buying into megacaps but then adding 300 "smaller" companies for what? Seasoning? Diversification?
    If the decision is to go with megacaps, then why bother with that dreck? Or if the decision is to diversify across the market (despite smaller companies having not fared as well as megacaps in the past), consider buying into funds that truly diversify.
    MGC has outperformed VFIAX since inception, Jan 2008 (10.50% vs. 10.26%), with slightly lower volatility (16.00% vs. 16.14% std dev), and a 3 year rolling coefficient of correlation ranging between 0.997 and 0.999 (nearly perfect tracking).
    Portfolio Visualizer correlation (and performance) analysis of MGC and VFIAX
    The divergence between mega caps and the rest of the market has been most apparent in the past five years (give or take). Go with the flow or "revert to the mean"?
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?

    I have concentrated in the right categories since 1995. See (link).
    LOL. WTF dude.
  • What allocation do you have to international equities and your favorite funds?
    "Like others here, I own a slice of GLFOX which invests in infrastructure and, for whatever reason, stays mainly in Europe. It has returned a big zero this year. Not a concern to me. I can be content with some holdings rising and some falling. If everything were rising together I’d be very worried."
    The optimal portfolio is only known in hindsight.
    Diversification means always having to say you're sorry about some investment in your portfolio!
    Your best observation ever. And no need for hindsight.
    I have concentrated in the right categories since 1995. See (link).
    Just a small example: since 11/2023, I have posted many times to own US LC tilting growth and not diversifying. See my post from 11/1/2023 (link)
    "You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ."
    Why I posted the above? my system told me. See the chart(https://schrts.co/MWCuZUMV)
    One of my fundamental rules is never to hold a fund that is not performing well. It doesn't mean #1, it means in the top 30% based on risk-adjusted performance. It's much easier when you have 3 funds, it's a lot harder with 10-15 funds.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    I am pretty certain it was 1992 when I jumped at the chance to buy re-opened low turnover Primecap shares for a taxable account. I felt fairly lucky, except SEQUX caused some fund envy. But of course, that envy disappeared in time. Other than MM holdings, VPMAX became my largest position - now ~13% of PV. Given the mediocre performance for several recent years, I certainly wouldn't mind if it reverted to its historical mean.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    Its heyday may be over? Last 5 years 2019-2023 or YTD it hasn't even kept up with the SP500 (VOO) Why pay ER .31 (VPMAX adm) vs ER .03 (VOO). On 200k that's $620 vs $60.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    Eight or nine years of redemptions probably explains it.
    BTW, those consistent redemptions have resulted in years and years of significant capital gains distributions. On an after-tax basis both of these funds have underperformed the S&P 500, by more than 100 bps a year for over a decade.
  • Vanguard PRIMECAP Reopens
    I have been in the closed VG VHCAX for years and been watching VG PRIMECAP also for years. I now have minimum+ in these reopened funds. As to why, I will worry about that later.
  • WSJ on pensions and PE
    @Tarwheel
    Hard to generalize about state pensions. My sister in Texas is in similar shape as you.
    But if you had worked in CT you would get traditional 60 to 70% of “high three average” ( go overtime go) with inflation adjustments AND lifetime health insurance for you and ur spouse.
    Vests ( including health insurance) After ten years of employment. So work ten years ie 22 to 32 yo and enjoy health insurance till 100!
  • Is TR of an OEF directly proportional to the amount of distribution paid by the fund?

    Suppose you have 1 million in Fidelity SP500 (FXAIX) and you want $4K monthly. You can create a sell monthly trade on a specific date to run for years to do it...and you are done.

    Only if you have the stomach for it. If you had $1M on Jan 1, 2022, and set up that trade you would be down $283,000 come October with zero guarantee that things were about to improve, and most likely torturing yourself thinking about what a terrible mistake you made.
    My post wasn't discussing volatility, and no one advised to put it all in one fund.
    It was an example of why you should invest based on TR and/or most people use risk-adjusted performance.
    But why did you start on 1-1-2022? Why not start in 2008 and show it was down over 50%?
    waggon:
    How a fund delivers those dividends may have some short-term effect on returns, but there's no denying that dividends play a massive rose in returns. Since 1989, again according to S&P, the index has gained 1,393% without dividends; it's up 2,930% with dividends. With that kind of performance differential, it's hard to argue that dividends don't matter.
    Why look at more than 30 years ago? The fact is that Divy have been going down. Since 2009, QQQ made about 1900% with minimal divy. High Divy stocks made a lot less than QQQ. (https://schrts.co/UhfIDyIu)
  • WSJ on pensions and PE
    @stillers. Perhaps another universe is oddly phrased, but my financial life would be entirely different if I had a pension check roll in every month. Many decisions would be looked at differently.
    Oh, now I get it!
    And agreed, our collective SS and Pension incomes result in negligible, if any in some years, annual income gap. Makes a world of difference in all of our financial and investment decisions. We played it close to the vest in our first five years of retirement, but have swung for the fences in our last seven. To our credit though, we started planning for our retirements and this very situation on Day 1 of our first professional jobs in 1980. Well, I did at least. The missus got on board a wee bit later!
  • Nvidia “Leapfrogs” Apple in Value
    @stillers,
    While I am not directly invested in the AI theme, I would appreciate you telling us when you think it may be time to get off the semi-conductor or Nvidia trade train (or when you sell). I know from your posts that you are directly invested in the AI theme and so your judgement is as good as any for me.
    (I previously posted: If I do not respond to future posts about Rev Rec, pl do not assume I agree with any commentary in those posts. I have no comment on the Seeking Alpha article.)
    Yeah, the proverbial $64K question.
    Macro: The history of AI goes back to the 1950's. I posted a link this year detailing the phases. The current AI phase is expected by some of the analysts I follow to have another five years of growth in it. So there's that.
    Micro: As I've posted a few previous times...My greatest exposure to AI is via FSELX though I certainly get plenty more via other OEFs. I've owned FSELX since near its inception. I routinely shave its allocation when it exceeds a given % of our Market Portfolio, and usually roll the proceeds to broader tech funds. That time has come again and I will likely be lightening up this week on FSELX to that extent, put may park the proceeds this time in FZDXX (per the following notion). I am also considering lightening up this week on some other OEFs with heavy tech/AI allocations. The FSELX sale is pre-programmed, so to speak, while the latter sales, if they happen, will be more of a gut feeling that I may be getting a wee bit greedy here. I will post any sales in this regard on the B/S/W thread. But no plans to significantly alter my tech/AI allocation...yet.