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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Tough choice for us between FDSVX and FBGRX but settled on the former. PRWAX is one of the most underrated LCG funds. We would own any of them over AMAGX.
    Other thoughts:
    Not sure of your situation, but if this is new money, might not be the best time to plow into Growth after its epic, current bull run. FWIW, we have recently reduced overall stock exposure including Growth and may go to all Cash if things start getting ugly en route to Nov. Also, if plowing money in this week, we would at least do some before/after Thu/Fri CPI/PPI announcements. They've been market movers this year.
    We always look beyond 3 years of performance and think that everyone should. If its the same manager(s), not sure why anyone wouldn't.
    Baron's Growth funds can run very hot/cold. We're likely done with that family of funds because of it.
    ERs are important but TR is obviously far more important (to us at least). A great, managed LCG fund will run ~.50-.80, as do the ones I listed. Coupled with a LCG index fund at ~.02 and you're at half that. FWIW, our weighted portfolio ER is .46. If ERs though are a primary driver for you, looks like AMAGX's ER of .91 is the highest of the bunch here and almost double FBGRX's .48.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "Simplification" of the IRA continues. Why the scare quotes? Every time I make progress on the equity side there's some new bond fund popping up. Cleaning up that mess should be next summer's problem.
    Today I sold three different tech funds, TDV, FSCSX, and CCIZX. Proceeds will go into something available at Fido like AMAGX, maybe GQEPX, something growthy, but probably not an index. The growth fund goes with FDVV and FMILX.
    If anyone wants to opine on a good growthy fund at Fido, chime in.

    IMO, the best "growthy fund(s) at Fido" that are Fido funds are:
    FDSVX - Growth Discovery (we own)
    FBGRX - Blue Chip Growth (owned in a/c's we manage)
    FCNTX - Contrafund (have owned in the past)
    FSELX - Select Semis (we own)
    FSPTX - Select Technology (we own FSELX instead)
    FSPGX - Growth Index (we own VIGAX instead)
    Note that FMILX is a LV fund that is currently acting like a LG fund;
    and the best non-Fido "growthy funds" funds are :
    PRWAX - TRP All Cap Opportunities (we own)
    GSIHX - GQG Partners International Opportunities (we own)
    Thanks for sharing. Missed FDSVX the first time around. It is closer to what I'm looking for. PRWAX didn't make the first cut because it has only been a four-star fund these past three years. So I'll take a look at FDSVX and the four stars today to see what turns up to run against AMAGX.
    A semi's fund is a consideration figuring a few beans on the side could grow into a largish bean stalk before we need to take distributions. But it would only be a few beans to start with.
  • Property Fraud Allegations Snowball as Commercial Real-Estate Values Fall
    This looks like the variation of the housing disaster we had only 15 years ago. That was not too long ago and how the mechanics are already in rinse and repeat cycle. I guess greed never sleeps.
    As a society, we admire / glorify people that commit white color crimes. The more blatant ones get elected to public offices.
    (A easier fix would be to require the originators and underwriters to hold a percentage of the loans that they originate / bring to the market.)
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Fed Debt is $34T now. Fed Debt in 20 years = ??. What would that CAGR be?
    More bonds being sold each year + probable increased interest rates on both existing debt rolling over + new issued debt. Many existing debt at 2% rolling over to 4%.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    If CAGR matters most over the last 20 years.....I wonder what the CAGR of the Fed Debt will be over the next 20 years?
  • WSJ: Vanguard’s Die-Hard Customers Have a Message for New CEO: ‘The Service Is Abysmal’
    My primary reasons for becoming a Vanguard customer were: 1) good low-cost actively-managed funds;
    2) firm had strong reputation; 3) firm was mutually owned vs. publicly traded.
    I was never fond of Vanguard's investor website even after it was redesigned.
    I seldom contacted Vanguard for assistance but did experience several suboptimal interactions.
    Dan Wiener (The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors) chronicled Vanguard's customer service
    issues for years. Regardless of the new CEO, I'm not confident these long-standing issues will be
    ameliorated in the near-future. Updated commission and fee schedules (effective July 1) suggest
    Vanguard is prioritizing "nickel-and-diming" investors rather than improving customer service.
    Consequently, my two Vanguard accounts were recently transferred to other brokerages.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC,
    Looks like you already own FDVV and FMILX and are recent additions. I think you also already own AMAGX. Why not increase those? GQEIX is also a good fund - not sure if you already own it.
    I bought AMAGX for the taxable account because I thought it was the best available where the taxable is. At Fido I'll sort out the funds that have five stars for the previous three years, then I'll pop those into MFO premium for one last slice and dice.
    FDVV and FMILX are about where they need to be until I can offload some other stuff.
  • WSJ: Vanguard’s Die-Hard Customers Have a Message for New CEO: ‘The Service Is Abysmal’
    Above-the-fold article on this morning's WSJ website. Also mentioned are concerns over new fees nickle-and-diming customers and how growth of AUM not leading to customer service/interface improvements.
    (gift link)
    https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/vanguards-die-hard-customers-have-a-message-for-new-ceo-the-service-is-abysmal-c2da0491?st=79tslq2qz4mj6bi&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
    Vanguard ranked last out of eight major brokerages for customer satisfaction with website performance and mobile apps in a recent survey of 2,700 investors conducted by Investor’s Business Daily, which is published by The Wall Street Journal’s parent company, Dow Jones. The asset manager has acknowledged the problems, which some analysts chalk up to an underinvestment in technology.
    Former CEO Tim Buckley, who announced his retirement in February, said in 2019 that the firm would spend $1 billion a year to improve its technology. Vanguard rolled out a modernized app in 2021, but customers weren’t impressed and complained of bugs and dumbed-down functionality.
    “The complaints go back years and years,” said Daniel Sotiroff, a research analyst who covers Vanguard at Morningstar. “Part of the issue is their size and how fast they’ve grown. It’s hard to turn the Titanic.”
    < - >
    For investors having web or tech issues, the lack of night or weekend service is a particular point of frustration. Vanguard’s customer-service line is open Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Eastern time. Rivals Fidelity and Charles Schwab both offer 24/7 customer service by phone.
    “They’ve always tried to keep costs low and service has suffered as a result,” said Jeff DeMaso, editor of the Independent Vanguard Adviser, a newsletter. “Long wait times are an issue.”
    < - >
    There’s a theory, and I’m not the only one to come up with it, that they’d rather move people onto the personal advisory service where they make more money or they’re just as happy if they go to another brokerage,” said Allan Roth, founder of Wealth Logic, a financial-planning firm.
  • "Markets have false sense of security"
    Sure, take out the engine of the world, and things will look different.
    Value has been lagging for about 15 years now.
    But one day.... :-)
    I got one word fer yooz: PLASTICS. ...Ooops, wrong movie.
    I got one word fer yooz--- in line with @rforno's remark: BREADTH.
    A healthier Market would show more breadth of profit, in addition to the crazy-nutso, irrational shot upward in the MAG-7.
    But you most often seem to want to talk past what others have to say; so, carry on.
  • Bloomberg Wealth: Josh Friedman
    "David Rubenstein talks to well-known credit investor Josh Friedman, the Co-CEO, Co-Founder,
    and Co-Chairman of Canyon Partners. After cutting his teeth in the early days of high-yield bonds
    alongside Mike Milken, Friedman has gone on to build his own $26 billion firm,
    which has been well positioned to capitalize on the explosive growth of private
    and distressed credit deals in recent years."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmazbha-Bvo
    Good interview with Josh Friedman.
    Some here may be familiar with River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund
    (multisector bond) managed by a Canyon Partners subsidiary.
  • Investing in 'Rule of Law' countries
    @Crash,
    I have seen their power grab. By doing so, they have drawn everyone’s attention on to themselves.
    We are here - “Let us see how they use (misuse) the power, in addition to imposing their ideology on the population”. One way or the other, the next 4 years are going to be defining for the Roberts’ court.
    I draw comfort from knowing that everyone that ever served or pandered to Trump felt Trump’s wrath at the first instance they chose not to comply to his ever increasing demands. Mike Pence is a shining example in the long, ever increasing list of those. How the Court behaves is beyond this forum’s control. But as an investing forum, what we can do is try to make money in any given situation (make lemonade!). To do so, we have to take an observational attitude.
    I called them Scotus (not SCOTUS) for a reason.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    YBB,
    Why bother buying and holding any index of small or mid caps? Tech companies go public these days as near large caps. So, very little growth potential left while in these indices. Seems like loss potential to zero and limited upside for components. The successful components graduate to SPY and the remaining unlimited potential is captured there. Seems like active is the only solution if one is itiching to buy and hold these caps.
    the median cap weight of companies that IPO (not tech specific) over the previous 20 years was around 100 million (adjusted for inflation). 2020/2021 it was 180 million. only 19% of IPO's in 20/21 were over 500 million in market cap.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2024/Q2–July 8, 2024)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q2 and YTD to 6/30/24)
    Pg L2: In comparing the best mutual funds (typically, active) vs the best ETFs (typically, passive, as the active ETFs are still evolving) in categories, the former were ahead (the 1st mentioned). Beware that leading active funds don’t maintain their lead after a few years; and some of these leading active funds are also concentrated. (Picture would change if average or typical mutual funds and ETFs were considered) (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    US Large-Caps GQEPX vs VOO, FDGRX vs QQQ
    US Small-Caps AVALX vs RWJ, HFCGX vs IJR, NEAGX vs XSMO
    Balanced/Hybrids DGIFX vs NTSX, FPURX vs OCIO (an unexciting category for ETFs)
    International GSINX vs IDMO, BISAX vs FYLD, MSMLX vs EEMS
    Bonds LCTRX vs FBND, FAGIX vs FALN (FAGIX may be conservative-allocation due to its equity)
    Pg L6: Funds with exposure to Nvidia/NVDA and/or Eli Lilly/LLY did well, especially large-cap growth – HCMGX / HCMIX, FOCPX, VPMCX / VPMAX, VIGRX / VIGAX; ETFs QQQ, IWY, VUG (some leveraged funds are mentioned also). Other fund categories that did well include India, precious metals, utilities. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    MORE Fund Stories (Part 2)
    FUNDS. SMALL-CAP (SC) R2000/IWM is more cyclical after the June 28 rebalancing as companies such as SMCI have moved out. The Top 5 R2000 stocks are FTAI, INSM, ANF, FN, SFM, accounting for a whopping 1.93%. The Top 5 sectors are healthcare, industrials, financials, tech, consumer cyclicals. If you own R2000/IWM, keep an eye on Fed news. (Better, own SP SC 600 IJR, SPSM)
    SCs are going through a period of profit slump. This notwithstanding that 40% of R2000/IWM are unprofitable. A simple solution is to use better SC index SP SC 600 (IJR, SPSM), or SC-quality DFAS (active).
    INTERVIEW/Q&A. FUNDS. David BARON, BFGFX / BFGIX. He likes large positions in founder-led growth companies that are trading at discount from firm’s intrinsic value estimates, for example, TSLA, SpaceX (private), BIRK, ONON, SPOT, SHOP, H, FIGS, etc. His goal is to double the money in 4-5 years. He thinks that sideline money can support this rally; his upside now is 20-30%, downside 10-15%. Ron BARON (81) founded Baron Capital and now sons David (44) and Michael also work for the firm. Both are involved with multiple funds.
    RETIREMENT. Don’t overstay in “cash” when rates start dropping. Gradually increase maturity – T-Notes, CDs, short/intermediate-term bond funds. Consider buffer funds such as MAXJ – it holds IVV with option collars.
    LINK
  • Starting Yields Are Predictive of Bond TR...

    That's what I was thinking
    Next week, rates may go up, and the explanation will not look great. These articles explaining stuff can be generated by AI. Over the years, I have seen a reversal in explanations based on the new markets. I stopped listening to these articles many years ago.
    This is why I follow prices, charts, and trends that tell me in real time a lot more.
    Read (this).
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    "Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001)."
    I owned this fund years ago.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Artisan Partners used to have an Artisan International Small Cap Fund for several years in which it was closed (I believe it was opened in 2001). It was later renamed to the Artisan International Small-Mid Fund in 2018. Originally, Mark Yockey used to be one of the co-managers of the International Small Cap Fund.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518294501/d598864d485apos.htm
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312518021833/d513085d485bpos.htm
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Not currently. At one we time owned PRPFX. We also previously traded GLD and GDX. There are just so many more reliable and less volatile ways to make money.
    EDIT: We owned them back when we traded more. We currently (and likely from here on out) only like to own funds that outperform the S&P over LONG periods. GLD, GDX, SDLV and/or PRPFX do not. Over the past 10 years, it ain't even close. If you want diversifiers and/or intend to trade them, have at it. Otherwise, be prepared for their LT underperformance.
  • the July / post-Morningstar issue of MFO is live
    Just in passing, we should note that the Artisan International Explorer strategy existed before the fund launched. The strategy initiated in November, 2020. The fund launched in May, 2022. The strategy, as a whole, has over $350 million in assets.
    Mr Zhou was an analyst under Mr Samra for 7 years before leaving to become a portfolio manager for Matthews. He returned to Artisan in 2020 but, I would guess, he returned bearing a non-compete agreement. And so he was able to run private but not public money.
    Since inception, the strategy has returned about 13.7% annually while it's benchmark index has returned just under 8%. It has outperformed in both up and down years with an active share of 99.3%.
    I've spoken with Mr Zhou twice. The first time was in person and I was deeply impressed. The second time was a weird video call with him and his co-manager in a conference room with a robo camera. The danged camera kept pivoting and refocusing. I think it was ceiling mounted. It did not engender a good conversation. Perhaps I should try again.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    If so, what is your rationale, and what has your experience been?
    I have some limited indirect exposure. But I do not hold any gold / precious metals funds or stocks at this time..
    My experience: Gold / PC miners are explosive (no pun intended). There is a string of 5 consecutive years (2011-2015) where most gold / precious metals mining funds lost money every year, losing about 90% of value over those 5 years. Breathtaking. But gold is prone to sharp “up” years as well. A mining fund can gain 50% + in a good year.
    Performance / Yahoo / Click the “show more” tab to pull up longer term performance for both OPGSX and the broader fund category.
    I won’t touch the miners at my age. They are more volatile than the metal. (Albeit - those in the know say the miners are currently undervalued relative to the metal.) Like @Derf I own PRPFX. One of my CEFs has a bit of exposure to the miners. When I feel like gambling I buy a little GLTR. It combines gold bullion with some silver and platinum using derivatives. Don’t feel like gambling right now. Prices look rich to me.
    Rationale for owning / not owning? When rising sharply gold is cited as a hedge against inflation and a “safe haven” during times of war or social upheaval. Also as a way of diversifying. When falling, critics say it hasn’t done nearly as well as equities longer term, does’t generate any income, can be difficult to trade (very narrow market) and is expensive to store.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    We haven't held any gold/metals related since 1979 - early 1980's. The below charts are gold miners, gold and SPY for a reference.
    GDX vs GLD vs SPY chart 2006 to present
    Chart August 2008 - August 2010, 2 years during 2008 market melt
    Chart COVID period, January 2020 - January 2022
    Chart Ukraine invasion, January, 2022 - July, 2024
    Chart YTD
    NOTE: a fellow I worked with for 30 years was/is a guns and gold kinda person.
    He became so freaked out with the market melt in 2008, that he cashed out a portion of his T-IRA to purchase physical gold at a local coin dealer store. That wasn't a good plan.