Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M* On Allocation/Balanced Funds
    I stopped paying attention to M* many years ago, MFO is better.
    One of the best ways for better performance is concentration in the right funds.
  • It's Back at Morningstar
    M* fund PDFs were free in the old days. Then, they were moved to its professional/advisory software with some legalese (for clients) & dozen+ pages. Now, it's available as 1- or 2-pages in the new M* Investor (subscription required).
    I get M* 'analyst' reports thru Schwab and WF that seem mostly like the 'old ones' of years past, albeit with new styling, subject headings, etc. It is nice to have one multipage document that shows the 'analyst''s prior comments on the stock to help put things in context and/or help decide how useful their thoughts really are.
  • M* On Allocation/Balanced Funds
    FBALX is team managed, and Fidelity has a large stable analysts to draw from. M* praises other fund companies for using team management but they don’t seem to like Fidelity’s approach, even when it yields excellent results. I’ve owned FBALX for more than 20 years and only regret not buying more of it, rather than many of M*’s recommendations.
  • It's Back at Morningstar
    I remember that M* "phonebook". My wife and I used to go to Barnes & Nobles or Borders quite a lot many years ago. We would spend an entire afternoon there. That M* funds book was my go to, sit-around and drink coffee entertainment. I would spend hours paging through all those funds and taking notes while my wife walked around picking up a stack of actual literature to read. Yeah, ok, she's smarter than me.
  • It's Back at Morningstar
    I was reflecting on years past when M* fund reports were printed on tissue paper and arrived in that huge telephone book binder ( Only grey beards will know what I am referring to. Out went to single reports, along with the useful information and concise analysis.
    Others may have also discovered, as I just did, that the single page pdfs on funds are still available at the new M* investor if you "Download" a report. Unfortunately the fund analysis is still written by computer, but the data on style, portfolio composition etc is available in one sheet.
    Still unable to import a portfolio into Investor.
  • M* On Allocation/Balanced Funds
    @yogibb said, I have noted elsewhere that FBALX is among the more aggressive moderate-allocation funds (nominal 50-70%). This shows in its higher volatility and higher effective-equity.
    FBALX is actively managed and tracks Vanguard Balanced Index fund and with heavier weighing in the tech %. This alone contributed to better performance. I prefer the more conservative, FMSDX, whose manager has running the fund for well over 10 years. Other than a handful of funds such as Contra and Low Priced Stocks, many Fidelity funds have high turnover on their managers. I agree with M* rating based on the mutual fund track record of the manager(s) tenure. The forward performance becomes less relevant whenever there is new management.
    @MikeM, I also like PRCFX for a different reason; really like to explore the bond strategy of this new fund. @msf posted information on a SMA managed by Farris Shuggi. I think there are good opportunities on bonds next year.
  • Falling knife, are you willing to get cut !
    Yes but mostly no. I picked up a bit of PFE 6 wks ago, and held on to POAGX (lots of biotech held there) hoping for a healthcare rebound of sorts although I've come to eschew the sector for many of the reasons expressed so far. I've never shown a great ability at selecting individual winners and losers in the sector outside of taking a flyer on ABBV a few years ago. Same holds true for financials and energy. I let my broad based ETF's deal with those 3 areas for the most part.
  • M* On Allocation/Balanced Funds
    M* continues to slight FBALX, one of the top performing balanced funds over every time period. Yet they promote TRPBX, a mediocre fund at best. I owned both for many years (until I moved funds from TRPBX to FBALX this year), and FBALX has greatly outperformed TRPBX over the past 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 years with slightly higher volatility.
  • Foreign Mutual Fund Suggestions
    International value funds I own, MOWNX, BISMX,COBYX (heavily invested in Latin America) have beaten the SP500 in last three years with lower drawdowns. CCISX also but with equal loss in 9/2022. Typical Emerging market funds ( SIGIX GQGPX) have not done as well, although it appears they have beaten their peers. I would look for funds that are well run, invest in areas off the beaten path and have lower correlations with the US.
  • Foreign Mutual Fund Suggestions
    The following funds are currently being considered.
    Seafarer Overseas Value Institutional (SIVLX)
    GQG Partners Emerging Markets Equity Inv (GQGPX)
    Artisan International Explorer Advisor (ARDBX)
    Fidelity International Small Cap (FISMX)
    I welcome any input or new fund suggestions.
    Thanks!
    I'm guessing this is the same question/discussion which appeared on Big Bang! but I'll chime in again here.
    1. SIVLX (EM Value) is GMO's favorite sector for return-to-the-mean (RTTM) over the next 7 years. For what that's worth (GMO's record is fairly spotty). I am invested in FEDDX in a slightly blendier space. Seafarer seems like a solid, shareholder-friendly house.
    2. FISMX: I am a fan. Owned it for a while, and recently added. Foreign SC is another GMO favorite for RTTM outperformance.
    Actively managed foreign funds present a problem. If you hold them in tax-deferred, you cannot claim a credit on foreign taxes paid. Not an issue for growthy funds (eg VWILX) that pay little/no dividends, but possibly an issue for value/dividend funds. If you hold them in taxable, you are subject to nasty CG distributions. Hence: I hold VWILX in tax deferred, and use ETFs in taxable for divvy payers (eg SCHY, DFIV, FIVA, VYMI, etc.)
    That leaves the question of where to hold funds like SIVLX, FISMX, and FEDDX. I choose to hold them in tax deferred. I lose a small tax credit, but I avoid getting whacked by CGs in taxable.
  • Foreign Mutual Fund Suggestions
    My experiences with foreign small caps and emerging markets have not been good. I invested in Artisan’s global small cap, and it performed so poorly that they closed it after a few years. I invested in MAPIX, and it was still losing money after more than 7 years. I invested in SFGIX, one of the better EM funds, and it had returned less than 4% annually after more than 11 years. These kind of funds tend to get destroyed in down markets, and it happens quickly.
    I’m through investing in foreign SC and EM now, unless some of my broader foreign funds invest in them. My advice to anyone considering these markets, is to be prepared for a long wait before making any money— unless you get lucky with your timing. I’ll be 70 in January, and I might not live long enough to see them make money. Good luck!
  • ETF dividends
    A popular misconception is that the stock market goes up most (~70%) of the time.
    That's correct on an annual basis. And the odds get even better over longer periods of time.
    image
    Source: https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual/planning/investing-fundamentals/time-not-timing-is-what-matters.html
    But on a day to day basis, the odds are barely better than break even that the market will go up:
    image
    Source: https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-daily-percent-move-of-the-stock-market/
    This is why I am somewhat obsessive about doing same day exchanges. I invest for the long term and am willing to put my faith in the market going up over a period of years. I do not accept exposure to daily random fluctuations.
  • RSIVX vs. OSTIX 2023 Performance Contest
    We invest with both OSTIX and RSIIX and happy to have them in our portfolio. Although both name use “strategic income” on their names, their approaches are not the same as it reflected in their ups and downs. We invest with Carl Kraufman for over 10 years; RiverPark Strategic Income is new for us and we are very happy with it.
    Going forward, I expect both funds will do well as we reallocate more from treasury into high yield opportunities with active managed funds.
  • Foreign Mutual Fund Suggestions
    Your portfolio of international holdings is far greater than mine. I scaled back a few years ago, when the US repeatedly outperformed. Now, with only a 10% allocation I realize I'm a bit under-capitalized in that area. I've found it harder to slice and dice the international funds into growth/value/small cap/large cap as compared to domestic, and wonder about the utility in that exercise.
    What I ended up doing is to find a fund manager who has a good track record, and go there. I've invested with Rajiv Jain at Goldman Sachs GQG Partners for several years with GSIHX (International) and have been very pleased. I recently established a position in GQGIX (Emerging Markets). What I like about that specific EM fund is that it's about 55% in India and Brazil.
    Since you appear to have a foothold in developed international markets, you may want to think about an EM position. Frankly, since I'm a bit adventurous, I'm even thinking about a focused India fund.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    First time I've heard him actually speak, in a conversation. Impressive. But I dumped Seafarer several years ago. And all the attention in China? Nope. Politically, by my own standards, China is uninvestable.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 12/23/23
    LINK
    https://www.barrons.com/magazine?mod=BOL_TOPNAV
    INTERNATIONAL TRADER. EM BONDS are attractive, especially the local-currency EM bonds (LEMB). Dollar-denominated is EMB.
    FUNDS. Hot-hand managers are coming to active equity ETFs (TCAF, QLTY, FBCG, CGDV, DCOR, ARKK, etc). There is a flood of active ETFs with 240 new YTD. Much of the growth has been for active equity ETFs after the SEC approved several models a few years ago. The ETF wrapper offers tax-efficiency due to its in-kind creation/redemption. However, most indexes (broad or customized/special) also tend to be tax-efficient. So, active managers have headwinds vs indexes. The active ETFs may have significant differences from their OEF cousins even when both are run by the same team(s) – the ETFs may have fewer stocks or use fewer portfolio strategies. Active ETFs may be only a bit cheaper than their OEF cousins.
    FUNDS. @DavidSHERMAN (58) uses value strategies for short-duration (0.75-2 years) HY bond fund CBLDX (ER 0.91%). He also looks for event-driven opportunities – early redemptions, change in control, selloffs following disasters, etc. He expects the yield-curve to normalize in 2024.
    INCOME. Higher rates came and went. But bond funds with short/intermediate duration offer high current rates and will benefit from rate declines. Barbell strategies are also good. Mentioned are OEFs STYAX, VMBSX; ETFs AGG, TOTL, PSK (preferreds); CEF PMM (muni).
    ECONOMY. FUNDS. Boring won in 2023. This skinny bull driven by Magnificent 7 did wonders for index funds. So, investors who didn’t do much deep analyses and just dumped some money into the SP500 or total market index did well. The SP500 index funds are now 10.7% of the fund universe, the total stock market 6.8%, with both accounting for 17.5% vs 8.76% in 2013. Very interesting considering that the 1st retail SP500 fund in 1976 (Vanguard) was a flop – it raised only $11.3 million in its initial period vs $150 million expected; it could afford only 280/500 stocks; Vanguard total market index fund followed in 1992 and many TDFs hold it. How has the tide turned from the humble beginnings? The SP500 index funds with only 2-4 bps ERs are formidable benchmarks to beat.
    Q&A. Joel TILLINGHAST, Fidelity Small/Mid-Cap FLPSX (almost global). He has managed the Fund since its 1989 inception. Considering the regime shifts going on (inflation, taxes, regulation, energy transition, AI, etc), this market is too calm and cheerful, almost like 1999-2000. He likes to see steady and predictable cash flows. Investors may have an edge on small/mid-caps as they are less followed by analysts and institutions. Indexing is very popular now, but active managers will do fine in the long-term. Peter LYNCH taught him to be flexible when things/facts change; to accept errors and move on. He is retiring in 2023, leaving FLPSX in good hands (PECK, CHAMOVITZ), and will devote more time to mentoring, traveling, gardening, and book writing. Previous book, Big Money Thinks Small, 2020.
    EXTRA, RETIREMENT. The good news is that Social Security payments will rise +3.2% in 2024 (old news), but the bad news is that it won’t be enough due to high inflation. Although inflation has moderated, that doesn’t mean lower prices. Significantly up are auto insurance, rents, medical care, Medicare Part B Premium. Almost 20% of 65+ are still working.
  • IRS is waiving $1B in penalties. Beware of tax debt relief companies.
    Following are edited excerpts from a current Free report from The Washington Post.
    The agency is extending the reprieve for the 2021 and 2022 tax years to roughly 4.7 million individuals, businesses, trusts and tax-exempt organizations
    Getting a letter from the IRS saying you’re past due on a tax debt can be frightening. That fear often drives people to tax settlement companies that offer hope of significant debt reduction.
    IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel says don’t believe the hype. That’s especially good advice now, given a recent action by the agency.
    In 2022, short-staffed and struggling to dig out of an enormous pandemic-related backlog, the IRS temporarily suspended the mailing of automated reminders to taxpayers about overdue tax bills for 2020 and 2021. The invoices would have normally been issued after an initial balance-due notice was issued.
    With many pandemic issues behind it and staffing up thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act’s boost to the agency’s budget, the IRS announced it will resume mailing collection notices for the 2021 and 2022 tax years in January.
    The notices may shock folks who haven’t received an IRS bill for over a year, Werfel said. For individual taxpayers, the median amount owed is $6,751, according to the agency.
    “Given that penalties and interest continued to accrue under law, the bill amounts for those who weren’t paying will be larger than the last time they received a letter from the IRS,” Werfel said. “For these affected taxpayers, we know this is a tough situation.”
    So, showing a softer side, the IRS has decided to waive the failure-to-pay penalties for about 4.7 million individuals, businesses, trusts and tax-exempt organizations that didn’t get automated reminders of their debts.
    But Werfel also issued a caution: “People with unpaid tax bills also need to be wary about aggressive marketing by some places that overinflate promises of wiping out IRS debt,” he said.
    There are unscrupulous tax debt settlement companies and scammers who will no doubt try to take advantage of this relief. They may use it as a hook to con you or get you to sign up for an expensive service you don’t need.
    “We have seen patterns of behavior in the past where marketers and promoters exploit an opportunity like this,” Werfel said.

    @BaluBalu- thanks for the add, BB.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/20/23
    Interesting guys.
    I’ve felt rightly or wrongly that Dow 37,000 (reached 2 years ago) is a decent marker of sentiment and valuation. That’s about where it still is today (I’m guessing that’s about neutral today). So, FWIW, I’m pretty much stuck in neutral - where I’ve been all year long. I recognize the Dow doesn’t represent the greater market or have any special significance. But over the years it’s been a half-decent guide for me (of euphoria vs bust). At least as good as 75% of the market prognosticators.
    Did unload BINC a few days ago and move into an IG short term (1-3 years) bond ETF. Not a market call. I expect the former will continue to perform well. Just trying to reduce overall risk profile as a decent year ends and with potential distributions in mind. It seemed as good a place as any to take a little risk off the table. (Equity exposure fell slightly from 48% down to 46% as a consequence of the move.)
    I’m structured into 10 equally weighted static segments (all but one represented by a single holding), so selling / replacing any one position is a pretty significant move, Also limits my ability to add or reduce risk incrementally. So far so good. But it’s a relatively new methodology for me.
    There are so many cross-currents regarding the financial landscape now it’s hard for me to form an opinion on the future course of the economy or stock valuations. Wars, Sino-tensions, disfunction in DC, consumer attitudes re prices, and the approaching elections. All of this has to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
  • Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel
    In the list of US steel producers by tonnes, I see X & CLF as US #2 & #3, or US #3 & #2. Market-cap rankings may be different. This global list has data from 06/2011-06/2022. If Nippon Steel's bid for X is successful, it will move to global #2 spot; China will have global #1, #4, #5, #6 AND other spots. List also shows 10-yr production history, and CLF seems a new kid on the block that grew from acquisitions in the last few years (unless the table has some missing data).
    Wiki, 2011-22 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_steel_producers
    World Steel Assoc, 2021-22 https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/top-producers/
  • Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel
    ybb, tnx
    I figured Cliff was probably not for real.
    I will ask family who live and worked in this area of trade academe their take
    Amazing outcome over 80 years.
    Art Buchwald 50y ago used to write wit columns and Tom Lehrer sang his songs about how Vietnam should simply study Germany and Japan to see how things go after countries lose to the United States.