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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • MINT etf versus CD's versus MMK'Ts
    I used ICSH for years. USFR was a recent addition. Different approaches to ultra-ST bond funds. On my watch list is JPST if I want another. I never warmed up to MINT.
    These are genuine inv-grade funds. I don't use ST-HY for this purpose, but have IT-HY and multisector bond funds (that have HY).
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    If you are going to remain "overweight" in equities, the 1 phrase that sticks in my mind is:
    "A rising tide lifts all boats" - JFK
    ....and the reverse is true as well. Defensive sectors (Utilities, Health, etc.) don't always hold up. So it would be nice to think that there are "low risk" strategies that could work. But they rarely do.
    The M* article that YBB posted pointed out that both Low-volatility and Alternative investments have been hampered severely by extremely low interest rates (earned by Treasuries and Cash collateral) over the past 15 years.
    The article finished with:
    "But what feels good is not necessarily what is right. As a rule, competitive gains do not occur without accompanying pain.
    That’s a message worth remembering when investment vendors respond to a stock downturn by selling safety. They always do."
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    Nice @msf
    I liken the “drag effect” of portfolio hedging to brakes on a car. A car would be much more efficient and would travel farther if you just left it rolling along.
    PS - @msf said “Shilling (attrib Keynes): The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
    That’s scary if true. It suggests our perspective on markets based on most of our investing lifetimes may not reflect reality. My “hands-on” experience dates to 1995, or about 30 years. Prior to that I paid little attention. Despite a few awful downturns (2000, 2008, 2020, 2022) U.S. equities have dramatically outpaced just about every other kind of investment. I dare say that holding bonds or other hedges over that 30 year span would have resulted in a lower overall return.
    But, as I think Shilling / Keynes implies, that 30 year period may represent some type of alternative universe rather then reality.
    FWIW / Fido’s analytics currently put me at 51% equities. Too high. Waiting for a good chance to reduce that.
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    ”This column should not be read as a criticism of low-risk investments. They aren’t required for younger investors, who need not worry about redeeming their funds at the wrong time (at least, if they are sensible), but they are critical for retirees who are withdrawing their assets. Ballast prevents them from entering a bear market spiral in which they spend ever-larger percentages of their portfolio to realize the same amount of money. Do that for long, and you are in real trouble.”
    Do younger investors (ie ages 25-45) really pay much attention to portfolio construction / hedging? Sure, some do. And likely if they’re reading this board they pay greater attention than the average working stiff with a job, kids in school, a big mortgage and 25 + years to retirement.
    Good article. Hopefully (as the author suggests) well considered portfolio specific hedging may reduce short term volatility for those already in the withdrawal stage. In no way, shape or form would I ever argue that hedging improves longer term performance. And … there’s always the option (hedge) of moving a big chunk into cash and / or CDs, as one well-heeled poster appears to have done recently. As a sometimes landscaper / gardener, I’m aware that hedges come in many different shapes and colors.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    My first & last boat leans up against back garden shed. I paid all of $100 for 11'6" flat bottom v hull. Many enjoyable hours spent fishing !
    To each his own.
    For fishing I never thought it made much difference what size boat. Over 45 years I owned both an aluminum 14’ and a deeper wider 16-footer. Was crazy enough to troll out on Lake Michigan with that 14-footer and just a single 15 HP outboard during the 70s & 80s. The larger boat had a second engine.
    Back to fishing … I think size is overrated. Have enjoyed catching bluegill from the edge of a pond in the spring just as much as hauling in 30 lb + salmon on the great lakes in August. You could argue the bluegill taste better.
  • extra goodies on Schwab site
    @rforno, new M* Investors (subscription) does have downloadable 1- or 2- page PDFs. Here is a sample for FMSDX that I uploaded to PDF Host and linked below for demonstration. More can get me into trouble. In the old days, these PDFs were free at M*, but now not much is free at M*.
    https://pdfhost.io/v/MFfvjfNFz_FMSDX_Investment_Report
    Thx. I actually re-sub'd a few weeks ago b/c I got a fairly solid educator's discount and figured it was worth it to see what had changed over the years. TBH while there are a few nice things there, on the whole I'm not that impressed w/the 'new' site and already killed the virtual card that I used to subscribe to plan to let the subscription die off on its own when it comes time for renewal.
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    Personally, I find the Fidelity website more useful than M* ever was. I can compare funds, analyze holdings, asset allocations, etc. I have found M* ratings and analyses to be poor predictors of future performance, giving users a false sense of security in picking funds. The Fidelity portfolio analysis tool is every bit as useful as M* X-Ray ever was. The only M* feature that I find useful is portfolio view - watch lists, which is good for tracking performance of funds over various periods of time. M* star ratings and fund recommendations are a joke. Over the years, I purchased many funds that were highly rated by M* and turned out to be bad investments. Likewise, many funds that have been very profitable for me get poor to mediocre ratings from M*. For example, M* tends to “damn with faint praise” many excellent Fidelity funds such as FCNTX and FBALX. They seem to bend over backwards to promote many T Rowe Price funds that are mediocre at best (eg, TRPBX).
  • DOL Retirement Security Rule, 2024
    @bee. It took me many years to convince my spouse that there is no point in paying for advice that should more, or less, boil down to a few funds covering equities and bonds if you are dealing with someone reasonably honest.
    Thanks for the link to the article. I look forward to sharing it. :)
  • I Bonds - buy, wait for May and buy, or hold
    It seems I am using I bonds differently from several other people. So far, I haven't sold any, though I suggested a "swap" (buy new one with higher rate than an older one I would sell).
    I regard them as long term cash, since they only accumulate interest, like a bank account or MMF. In this respect they differ from longer term treasuries (whether nominal or inflation-protected).
    [snip]
    I also regard I Bonds as long-term cash.
    My I Bond holdings were accumulated over a number of years.
    I haven't sold any of these bonds since they will be used for cash during retirement.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    I got an umbrella policy many moons ago when my teens started driving and kept it after they flew the coup since I then had a boat. I needed to have a certain amount of base coverage (which I had) before I could get an umbrella policy. I was told at the time usually if you are sued they look at your coverage and sue for that amount. If you have 1M you'll probably get sued for 1M If you have 2M you'll get sued for 2M. I agree the larger the policy the more defense you'll get from your insurance company to save themselves that money.
    I stayed with one insurance company (my first) for a long time thinking loyalty and being a good customer mattered until I found out I was just a number. I then went to a local broker that searched and saved me about 1K/yr on all policies. I liked the companies they recommended so I went with them. It's been about 5+ years now and I'm debating having them do another search to get a new picture of current rates. Maybe do that every 5 years or so. It's a little bit of a hassle switching but as they say, it's not personal, it's just business. Heck I switched internet/cable service back and forth several times between the same companies over the years because they wouldn't meet what was offered by their competitors. Maybe I can do the same with insurance although insurance is a bit different as you need to be comfortable with your companies reputation.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    Interesting thread. Our auto insurance rose 33% in January, from $270 to $360 a month. I was led to believe that it was because we had made several claims over the past couple years— all accidents in which we were not at fault. I probably should start shopping for a new insurance company, although I’ve been satisfied with the service provided by State Farm. Our previous insurance company (Kemper) refused to pay for damages to our house caused by a severe thunderstorm and hail. I never such problems with State Farm.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "I've always liked the American balanced fund."
    @MikeM - yes, we did well for many years with the American Balanced.
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    Yes. M* is accessible through most US local libraries.
    I checked and they had no one asking for it but when I inquired, the Adult Ref Library Manager responded and turned it right away and they've been renewing it for the last 5+ years.
    All M* current Investment Newsletters are accessible from a laptop @Home to download/review.
    I do not know if the newer M* Platform is accessible.
    My old or new portfolios can now be created and tracked on the latest M*,
    as I have not visited their forums.
    Thanks.
    Majick
  • Grandeur Funds (GPGOX, GPIOX)
    I have some investments in these funds and lately they have been performing very poorly. I know they have hot years that return outsized returns and some really cold years. Robert Gardiner has exit management for a sabbatical and while the remaining management has experience on the paper, I wonder how active they were managing the fund. Anyone has insights? I have been simplifying my account portfolio, these could be the next subject to simplification.
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    Let us get back on track.
    "The higher umbrella coverage you have you can bet your arse that your insurance company will fight like tooth and nails to defend you....the senior attorney's will work the case...they don't want to pay up..."
    May be the group can weigh in with their views on the merits and demerits of getting as much coverage as the insurance company is willing to offer (within the limits of your total assets) without a lot off paper work and qualifications.
    I carry a large umbrella. When I switched from GEICO to Erie a few years ago, I made the request, and b/c I asked for an amount somewhat more than they usually expect, it took the company an extra few days to (I guess) check me out and give my local agent the go-ahead. I probably could've asked for more, but let's not get too crazy.
    My umbrella, as part of my home/auto/umbrella package was not an expensive policy. In fact, going from GEICO to Erie (when notifying me my auto rate was goin up 30% in 2022) I saved probably 40% ... and probably should've switched a loooong time ago.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Innovator recently issued "AAPR" which is capped at 18% gains, and supposedly offers 100% "buffer" protection against losses (for 2 years, until April 2026).
    There are a lot buffer funds flooding the market.
  • TIAA Traditional Modelling in Portfolios
    Modelling TIAA Traditional (SV) as a combination of fixed-rate annuity & T-Bills is also possible with MFO Premium. This example shows the CLASSICAL portfolio of 50% CREF Stock & 50% Traditional SRA as “QCSTIX [50] RATE0400 [37.5] TBILL [12.5]”, for the years ending on 03/2024,
    1-yr APR 14.0%, SD 7.0%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 13.6
    3-yr APR 5.6%, SD 8.5%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 17.6
    5-yr APR 7.8%, SD 9.2%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 18.4
    10-yr APR 6.6%, SD 7.6%, yield 1.5%; reference VFINX/SP500 SD 15.2
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/606/tiaa-traditional-modelling-portfolios
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Hi Ron,
    Thanks.
    Have you compared this with the Innovator ETFs?
    https://www.innovatoretfs.com/define/etfs/
    I have not looked at them in nearly two years but my recollection is they carry similar flavor to this. I am hoping this being a newest one, it is better and improved for the consumer over all the earlier ones. With so many ETF launches these days, I can not keep up with the ETF universe. May be we should start an ETF thread! Look forward to what you learn when you finish reading the literature.
    "aims to match the price return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) up to a cap of 9.65%"
    Before or after fees and expenses?
    I like the 0-9.65% collar.
  • REITS moves in portfolio
    I used to hold FRESX and FRIFX in my portfolio with excellent returns during my period of ownership. Several years ago (before the COVID real estate crash), I sold both funds. Instead, I have much larger holdings in FSDIX, which typically has about 15% of its assets in REITs.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    Via BBG:
    "Calamos Investments filed Monday for so-called “structured-protection” exchange-traded funds that will track a portion of the returns of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 while hedging 100% of the downside via the options market, according to a Monday filing.
    The first fund launching within the suite is the Calamos S&P 500 Structured Alt Protection ETF, which aims to match the price return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) up to a cap of 9.65%.
    The catch: Investors looking to reap the full protection will need to buy it on launch day — May 1, 2024 — and hold it, come rain or shine, through April 30, 2025. After that, a new defined period of cover kicks in.
    CPSM, like others in the upcoming ETF lineup, will primarily invest its assets in derivatives by buying and selling a combination of call and put options to cushion against market volatility, according to the fund’s prospectus. A regulatory filing notes there’s no guarantee the fund will be successful in providing the much sought-after downside protection."

    I'll need to read the prospectus to fully understand the mechanics, but this sounds kind of like those 'Principal Protection Notes' that Wall Street was foisting on retail investors in the years just before the GFC. Back then, with those products, if the index closed even ONE day outside of the collar, you forfeited everything but your principal -- so it became more like an unsecured loan to the issuer. But that said, if someone could guarantee (key word!) that vaunted zero downside and a 9.65% cap on the upside, I'd probably take it.
    ... of course if/when treasuries get back to 8% or more, that'd be a different story and I'd probably pounce on that. :)