Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • OK, this must be the signal that "the top is near"
    S&P closed 1379 on Jan 1 2008. It was mid-2012 before it hit that number again. More than 4 years. Correct me, if I have the numbers wrong.
    Continued investments help a lot. I did same. No selling at all, I increased my buying. But, we shouldn't ignore that was a lot of lost time for many portfolios. I agree that the Great Depression is not equivalent to the GFC. In fact, that is my point. We could have something in the middle and it could still be very bad. I think that a solid portfolio hit to retirees could put a huge crimp in consumer spending. A lot of hunkering down.
    Imagine a 5-10 year period where retiree portfolios initially drop 25% and then remain stagnant. That could certainly take the air out of consumer sentiment. I am prepared for such an event, but doubtful that many are.
  • OK, this must be the signal that "the top is near"
    ”But, the GFC was pretty darn bad. How many years before markets got back to previous highs? 4-6 years, maybe.”
    I was young and foolish in ‘07-‘09 / Threw money at it. First gradually and later all at once. By early ‘09 I’d moved 80 or 90% to international stocks which got hit hardest.
    From my records:
    2008 - 21.9% (neg)
    2009 + 28.86% (pos)
    2010 +9.39% (pos)
    Not everyone was in a position to do as I did. If you sold near bottom you were screwed. And the GFC was much shorter than the Great Depression. I’m not inclined to compare the two.
    To answer @DrVenture’s question. My AI chat says,
    ”The S&P 500 took approximately six years to recover to its previous high following the Global Financial Crisis. The index bottomed in March 2009 and did not surpass its prior peak until March 2013, a period of about 65 months. This recovery timeline is consistent with other sources indicating it took around six years for the S&P 500 to regain its previous all-time high after the 2007–2008 crash.“
    Article for thought - What Is the Difference Between a Recession and a Depression?
  • OK, this must be the signal that "the top is near"
    I think that the lesson of Covid is that the government would perform bailouts and stimulus checks and other forms of stimulus policies. Debt would skyrocket and so would inflation. I suspect that would be what eventually brought our economy to its knees. a lame duck consumer and a debt burden, that cast a pall for a very long time.
    I doubt it would play out the same as 1929, given all the changes to social safety net since then. But, the GFC was pretty darn bad. How many years before markets got back to previous highs? 4-6 years, maybe. That is a long time for anyone who retired around that time. Particularly, if they were force retired through layoffs.
  • Orange Tantrum-Child cuts off talks with Canada.
    Certain parallels with the Japan situation back then, and China now. In both cases, we were frightened by any entity that might share the spoils of success.
    Reagan, like trump, raised taxes significantly. And increased our national debt substantially. Reagan more than tripled out debt in his 8 years. Tripled!
  • OK, this must be the signal that "the top is near"
    I think anything published by Zero Hedge needs to be fact checked.
    It is not hard to believe that someone fears that Cuban runs as a Democrat in 2028, so they are seeking to begin the mud slinging early. "Tyler Durdan" is a character from the movie Fight Club. Great way to advance an agenda.
    I am not a fan of predatory lending. Still, how is this different from letting people run up credit card debt at the maximum (24%)? Something that every single financial entity in America has their hooks into. What is the solution here? Government enforced lending standards? IDK
    I remember quite clearly that in the 1-2 years before both the Dotcom events and the GFC, many people were raising red flags. The common refrain was, "they have been saying this for months". I watched people buy more and more, at the top. Certain it would go up forever. It took well over a year for both these things to blow up in everyone's face. And it impacted even those who were not heavily in stocks. Jobs lost, homes lost, bad times all around.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    New car prices topped $50K average for the first time. Ignore that every single automaker warned that tariffs would push prices higher.
    Remember that at 2% inflation it takes 5 years to lose 10% of purchasing power, still a problem for those on fixed income. But at 3% inflation, the same 10% purchasing loss occurs in around 3 years. A significant difference.
    And with rates coming down, it could end up even worse. And this impact will be on top of Covid era inflation.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    OP "The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs"
    Here’s my experience:
    Over the past several weeks, I’ve been shopping at Walmart and Aldi every week — and I haven’t seen any issues. I also visited Kroger, Publix, and Trader Joe’s, and noticed the same.
    I’ve been to Home Depot and Lowe’s as well, with similar results. Our old range lasted 25 years, and when it finally broke, we had a new one delivered within two days.
    I stopped by Target once — no problems there either.
    I even helped a friend buy a Toyota, and we found plenty of inventory.
    The only place I saw empty shelves was at a dollar store — and yes, they were mostly cheap Chinese items.
    Keep trying to spin and scare the kids—anything to bring the current admin down.
    Since 01/2025
    Shiller house price are down 1%
    New auto prices are up about 0.5%.
    Oil, a major component of many items, is down about 25%
    ===============
    Healthcare in America will never be cheap. It’s a massive for-profit industry for many providers, while politicians are heavily influenced by special interests.
    The so-called Affordable Care Act — or as I call it, the Unaffordable Care Act (UCA) — made coverage far more expensive for those who buy directly through the marketplace.
    Before the ACA, I could find solid insurance for around $400 a month with a $3,000 deductible for both of us. Two years later, both numbers had doubled — that’s one of the reasons I worked an extra year.
    Fortunately, I was able to transition to Medicare over three years ago. This year, my wife paid $1,200 per month with an $8,000 deductible under the UCA until she became eligible for Medicare.
    Our excellent Medicare Advantage plan used to have zero premiums for years, but it’s increasing to $27 next year. Still, we can see any doctor or hospital in the U.S. for the same price, with specialist visits at just $20.
    It also includes dental coverage (up to $4,000, with no deductible), free gym access, and more.
  • Delayed CPI

    good pbs segemnt.
    step 1. remove objective staffers
    step 2. promote a better process somehow with fewer resources (to control)
    step 3. indefinite pause of data release
    step 4. show result of shiny new models
    step 5. crash currency and economy
    america is drifting between step 2 and 3...but 3 more years leaves plenty of time.
  • Orange Tantrum-Child cuts off talks with Canada.

    as stated by Canadians, despite this being a time-limited ad from a single province, the core truth hurts.
    trump is a useless snowflake playing with the world's largest economy only for his personal grift and ego.
    although i have no doubt matching carney's background and intellect versus trump, i hope tens of millions of canadians keep chipping away with grassroot american boycotts. they can do fine w/out them, and actions will speak louder than another 3 years of dementia.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
    Inflation is finally under control? The monthly premium on yours and mine - Humana Gold Choice H8145-069 (PFFS) Medicare Advantage plan is increasing from $0 to $27 for 2026. That’s an increase so steep you can’t even calculate the percentage!
    I gather you will need to pick up a job. With your great hindsight, how about running a few funds for a big mutual fund company? If that does not meet your fancy, trade up to some faster Yugo’s.
  • This Day in Markets History
    From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
    On this day in 1861, the first U.S. transcontinental telegraph line was activated,
    enabling messages to be transmitted almost instantly from New York to California.
    News would have taken two or three months to go from coast to coast just 10 years earlier.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
    One-track mind. No, it's not just Dems who can see the higher prices. I'm no Dem, nor a Rep. The Orange Moron took office and soon instituted tariffs which upended any kind of trade normalcy. He claims lots of money coming into the Treasury. Who's paying it, in the end? The U.S. consumer. Businesses will eat the cost of the tariffs for only so long. Then it falls on everyone who needs to buy anything, literally.
    I do believe Joe was too free in throwing around covid-era money, to rescue the economy. It resulted in big-time inflation, which Yellen, Powell and the others claimed for too long, was "transitory." They got it wrong. I see no one here denying that. Go fight your own straw man where we're not bothered by it.
    Jump right in to 1:50 of this clip, if you care to taste a bit of Reality. And I never thought I'd be agreeing with Ronny Ray-guns about anything, but there it is:

  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
  • Food stamps to run out: ‘the greatest hunger catastrophe since the Great Depression’
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Nearly 42 million people in danger as federal government shutdown continues and Snap funding to end 1 November

    While Republicans have sought to blame Democrats for the potential loss in benefits that people who make little money rely on, those who work in the food-insecurity space say that is misleading because Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act already eliminated almost $187bn in funding for Snap through 2024, according to a congressional budget office estimate.
    Should funding run out at the end of the month, “we will have the greatest hunger catastrophe in America since the Great Depression, and I don’t say that as hyperbole”, said Joel Berg, CEO of Hunger Free America. Snap supports working families with low-paying jobs, low-income people aged 60 years and older and people with disabilities living on a fixed income, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
    Snap participants generally must be at or below 130% of the federal poverty line. The average participant receives about $187 a month, the center reports. The Department of Agriculture recently sent a letter to regional Snap directors warning them that funding for Snap will run out at the end of the month and directing them to hold payments “until further notice”.
    More than 200 Democratic representatives have urged the USDA to use contingency funds to continue paying for Snap benefits. “There are clear steps the administration can and must take immediately to ensure that millions of families across the country can put food on their table in November,” a letter from the lawmakers to the USDA states. “SNAP benefits reach those in need this November would be a gross dereliction of your responsibilities to the American people. We appreciate your consideration of these requests.”
    Democrats have refused to pass a funding resolution to reopen the government because they want the legislation to include provisions to maintain healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which the Trump administration cut and are set to expire at the end of the year.
    A USDA spokesperson blamed Democrats for the upcoming loss in Snap benefits: “We are approaching an inflection point for Senate Democrats,” the spokesperson told Fox News. “Continue to hold out for healthcare for illegals or reopen the government so mothers babies, and the most vulnerable among us can receive timely Wic [special supplemental nutrition program for women, infants, and children] and Snap allotments”.
    That claim is inaccurate¹:  undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Affordable Care Act subsidies.
    While his organization is focused on food insecurity, Berg supports the Democrats in fighting for healthcare subsidies because “this has grave repercussions for the people we represent”. “The population getting the healthcare subsidies may have a marginally higher income than people getting Snap, but there is certainly a lot of overlap,” Berg said.
    The profile of a Trump supporter:
    Brittany, a 38-year-old mother of three, lives in Greenup, Kentucky, and works 35 to 40 hours each week as a home health nurse. She also has received Snap benefits for a few years.
    “It’s not like I receive benefits and not work,” said Brittany, pushing back against the misconception that people who receive food stamps just sit on the couch. They allow her to get “most of the necessities throughout the month and then I just pay cash for the rest of them”, said Brittany, who did not want her last name used.
    If the Snap funding is cut off, she said, she would have to work on the weekends to make up the difference, which would mean she would have “hardly any time with my children”.
    Still, she supports Trump and blames Democrats for the shutdown because “they are not agreeing on anything that the Republicans offer”.

    ¹-   "inaccurate" = yet another outright Trump government lie.
  • Are PM prices near their peak?
    The gold miners ETF (GDX) has risen 117.6% YTD, 72.5% over the past year and 49% annually for 3 years
    The more subdued gold etf (GLD) is up 56.4% YTD, and has risen 51% over 1 year and 35% over 3 years.
    I can’t think of any other asset class (ie equities, energy, real estate) in my lifetime that held those types of short term gains without a significant correction somewhere down the road. Color me skeptical.
    Then again - maybe Haggard explained gold’s workings in his Rainbow Stew classic.
    * Figures from M* and do not include today’s gains.
  • Westinghouse Nukes
    Article states that China's nuclear ambitions far outpacing the rest of the world.
    Comment section of the article is worth a read.
    Actually, the United States is the global leader in the construction of cheap, safe, powerful nuclear reactors. They just happen to all be owned and operated by the United States Navy (563 reactors over the past 75 years, at last count.) So if the Navy and China can build reactors, but US power companies can't, we should probably look at why that is.
    One obvious reason seems to be that neither the US Navy, nor the Chinese nuclear program needs to satisfy shareholders. Since they don't have to constantly cut costs to drive up stock price, they can instead focus on good design and safe operation. (I would have loved to see a Navy bean counter try to tell Admiral Rickover that there wasn't any money in the budget for something he wanted.)
    It's unrestrained capitalism that causes the problem, not the technology.
    https://nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/22/climate/china-us-nuclear-energy-race.html
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    Howdy folks,
    Geez, I've been preaching the joys of ShadowStats for some 20 odd years. teehehe
    In addition to the price increase due to tariffs and labor shortages, there is a LOT of piggy-back price markups taking place across the spectrum. Recall the increases that took place during Covid totally unrelated. Anyone check their home-owners insurance lately? How about your utility bills? Shrink-flation was mentioned and note Coca-Cola is coming out with a small version. [side bets on how long before it becomes their primary sale].
    I jokingly mentioned Shadowstats but I haven't trusted the gov'ts CPI numbers in decades. I grant that their calculations have been accurate, but the problem lies in what they count and how much weight things receive. It's designed to mask inflation and we all know it. Hedonic adjustments are sweet. If the product is new and improved, the additional costs don't count. What if you can no longer buy the old and unimproved version? Oh, and Greenspan equated burger with steak.
    Now there is another problem. With the current administration, even when the BLS gets back to work, the calculations can no longer be trusted.
    So, plain and simple, we're on our own. As the Governor used to say a long time ago, 'keep your asses low and your flak jackets close'.
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion and Washington is ‘numb to our own dysfunction
    Budget committee warns that U.S. national debt hits $38 trillion.
    Rather, it’s the interest being paid to service it. As of September the U.S. spent $1.21 trillion to maintain the debt— 17% of the total federal spending in fiscal year 2025. That interest rate is also increasing over time. Just a couple of years ago, in 2021, the rate of repayment by the U.S. government was, on average, 1.61%. Now it’s 3.36%.
    According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will add $3.4 trillion to national debt by 2034. That number is the net of a decrease in spending of $1.1 trillion and a decrease in revenues of $4.5 trillion. The White House has repeatedly argued that the revenues expected to be generated by tariffs, estimated by the CBO at $3.3 trillion over the next decade, will effectively balance the books.
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/economy/u-s-national-debt-hits-38-trillion-and-washington-is-numb-to-our-own-dysfunction-budget-committee-warns/ar-AA1P2CuV
    The number should be alarming to treasury holders. Future market on gold and silver are moving up again on Thursday, October 23, 2025. What does that reveal ?
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Like Capital One commercial said “what is in your wallet?” Mine has been moving oversea.
  • At what tax rate do Muni bond funds become attractive?
    One of the muni funds I previously owned was high yield, and it got destroyed when interest rates spiked along with the higher quality funds. The irony to me is that I owned muni funds for many years when interest rates were lower and they were worthwhile holdings. But their yields never increased commensurate with the yields in taxable alternatives. At current yields, it seems that muni funds are only worthwhile for people in high tax brackets.
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    @Mark, the Costco we visited did the switch to smaller chickens. In the past the chicken is very popular and often people get in line to get them. This time many of them just sat on the shelf, unsold. These small chickens are 60% of the previous size.
    Whole chicken costs over $5 by themselves and takes an hour to cook them in the oven. Costco first introduce rotisserie chicken years ago for $5 each and they have not changed the pricing. It is one of their popular items that they loss money but it brings in the customers.
    Food-wise everything are costing more, easily 10%.