Thank you @davidsherman. I've been a happy customer of RPHYX for quite a few years, and SPC since it's launch. I've been very impressed and kind of amazed with the steady trend line SPC has had over the past year. It's nice to see that both of these funds surpassed treasuries and CDs for 1 year return, though that may be a bit more difficult moving forward if CD's and T's are now in the upper 5% range going forward. But, still betting on you.

Agree, BaluBalu. Those who know me know that I've spent a lot of time looking at the Allocation-type funds over the years, and while traditional bonds have done them no favors with rates rising; we're already talking about reductions next year - maybe. Of all of these types of funds, PRWCX and FBALX seem to always stand at the head of the class.

We go through the same ritual every year - anecdotes about how prices of some class of items or another has shot up. Then a leap from that to inferring that the average increase in prices nationwide can't possibly be what the BLS is reporting.
Three years ago it was lumber. Soaring through the roof as people sheltered in place and decided to build more shelter. Anyone check the price of lumber recently? It spiked around $1700 during the pandemic, and is now around $500, having dropped 16% over the past year alone.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
Similar figures for some other commodities, such as wheat down a third (33%), dairies (cheese and milk) down about a fifth, and coffee down a quarter.
OTOH, OJ has roughly doubled in the last year. Climate change (hurricanes) and disease are the attributed causes.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/food-inflation-orange-juice-prices-florida-economy-eggs-olive-oil-2023-10
This Oct 2023 piece goes on to note: "Other breakfast staples like eggs and bacon soared in price last year but have gotten cheaper in 2023, thanks to higher interest rates dragging down overall inflation."
That seems consistent with @davidrmoran's random googling above.

Are coming closer to - or below - par (most of 'em) again, which got me interested as long-term income holds for QDI.
Then I noticed their Dec AGM is going to hold votes "on the amount of cash patronage and equity redeemed and distributed to owners" which kind of put my interest on temporary hold until this is resolved.

"In the last 15 years, the volume of allocated equity has tripled – and it’s more than five times the equity held in 1999. Allocated equity has grown every year, even during times when CHS had strong earnings and returned a significant amount of cash to CHS owners.
Continuing to manage equity this way will likely mean the CHS equity program has less value to owners over time, since it will likely take decades longer to redeem equity."
More @ https://www.chsinc.com/about-chs/owners-and-investors/equity
Since I know some here hold and/or like these things, I figured it worth passing along the item as an FYI.

I’ve noticed the same effect at the local WalMart where I do a lot of grocery shopping. Prices spiked sharply almost overnight 1-2 months ago. Interestingly, that coincided with about the time they did a whole lot of new hiring. Prior to that you might wait in line 30 minutes to an hour to check out. I more than once walked away leaving behind a cart full of foodstuff. But after all these new hires showed up the lines got much shorter / are moving a lot faster. And the new, mostly younger, folks working checkout seem like happy campers too. Looks like WalMart raised the pay / benefits of to attract new workers. That, I think, translated into sharply higher shelve prices almost overnight. . Given a choice, I’ll pay an extra 25-50 cents for a jar of pickles or loaf of bread if it means saving 30 minutes at checkout. “Time is money” as the old expression goes.
I hope the above doesn’t sound trite. The labor shortage is real and affects the cost of living. In part, it’s a consequence of we aging baby boomers weaving our way through those golden years while the remaining active labor force struggles to keep up with growing demand. Lots of other factors too - like union busting tactics over the past half century that have lowered compensation for common labor, making work less desirable for the less educated.
I don’t know how current all those recently reported inflation numbers are. But it seems possible to me that the spike in food prices antidotely observed / reported by @fundly and myself are yet to be reflected in those stats. In fact, there was an unexpected spikes in inflation reported this morning that seems to have tanked equitiy prices today out of fear of still higher interest rates.

Nice post from @Catch22 that explains how CPI is calculated. Problem is: There’s no “average” American, so everyone’s affected differently. I did read somewhere that auto insurance has skyrocketed recently - a lot to do with all the technology that goes into new vehicles today. ”Computers on Wheels” to a degree. So if you smash one up repairs can be enormous. I haven’t noticed it yet. Carry a relatively high $2500 collision deductible. (At least my insurance agent considers it so). House insurance has been greatly impacted by all the natural disasters in some regions. In some areas people are lucky to obtain it at any price.
What sometimes gets overlooked in thinking of inflation is the compounding effect. 5% a year for 5 years works out to better than a 27.5% cost of living rise in only 5 years. And, future annual increases compound off of that number. Adds up fast.
Thanks for the spreadsheet @msf. Enlightening

@yogibearbull Yuppers.....a most decent fund over the years.....1986.

I just checked with my wife about me possibly being "sophisticated”. She looked at me funny and broke into uncontrollable laughter. I wonder what that meant?

a fine image
>> ... cash should not be thought of as an equity substitute.
>> Investing is a game where success usually follows those who think using probabilities, rather than certainty.
>> Over a five-year period, the difference between stocks and cash is more than 50%. Over 20 years, it’s more than 700%.
I mean, seriously.
Maybe I shoulda written 'unsavvy'. The first line above is prizewinning, though.

To clarify: you don't get interest in the month that you sell.
So if you sell at the beginning of a month you've only lost a day's interest (for that month). But if you sell near the end of the month, you get nothing for those 30 days or so.
It is better to sell them at 6 month intervals from the purchase date to make full use of current rates.
That works if you're out of the penalty period (savings bonds held for at least 5 years). If you're subject to a 3 month penalty, then it's better to hold the bonds for 3 months past the final month of the old rates. That way, you get the full use of the older (presumably higher) rates. You just lose 3 months interest at the new (presumably lower) rate.
https://keilfp.com/blogpodcast/when-to-cash-out-i-bonds/#When_Should_I_Cash_Out_My_I_Bonds

For many I-Bond holders, the decision may to hold or fold. If they bought last year, they have to wait at least 12 months, and then up to 5 years, there is 3 month interest penalty (Treasury Direct value shown is net of applicable penalty). It is better to sell them at 6 month intervals from the purchase date to make full use of current rates. Also, sell early in the month to still get whole month's interest (flip side is to buy late in the month, although most won't be buying).

RWJ ticks the SCV box for me. FMIMX is smidish, and valueish by P/E. XMHQ is my other smidish.
CALF is an interesting alternative to RWJ. I am keeping my eye on it.
I have no idea why funds weighted on revenue, or cash-flow yield, should end up in the value box, but there they are.
I have owned VSIAX for many years. Sold out in the IRA for investments named above. And probably soon to be sold out in the taxable for same. It doesn't seem to do anything very well in any conditions compared to funds based on the S&P 600 and 400.
I have owned other small caps in the past, like QRSVX and RYSEX. NBGNX was the best of those funds in those days.
I had a nice run with HSCSX while Teach and Morris were part of the team. Sold that after Ashton left because it was already fading in comparison to its peers. One of the best sales I have made.
Going back to the OP, I guess I can say it has always been time for me to hold small caps.

I sure hope small caps go up and soon!!!! Ive owned WAAEX for years-held on too long I think- Ill just say its downhill racer!!

US inflation the last year has been under 4%.

.
Exactly. Cash position is for short term only to pay bills and others. Stocks, the most volatile asset class will likely be ahead of inflation in the long term.
When money market pays little for so many years, 5% yield today sounds pretty good. Back then inflation was about 2%.

Hi, guys.
On my EM investments, I'd simple. I have a plan, I stick with it. My average holding time for funds is some combination of "15 years or since inception." I sold my MACSX position mostly because the stock/bond and domestic/international balance was so badly off. That was the same reason that I moved my monthly SIGIX contribution down to quarterly.
As long as Seafarer and Grandeur Peak honor their part of the bargain, I'll honor mine. I'd certainly make more money if I sold at the right time, but I've never shown that skill before and don't suppose it's snuck up on me now.
David

”I played the game for many years … “
That’s my take too. It’s all about risk / reward. Than again, I’m not very “sophisticated”.
:)

This is kind of beating that poor old dead horse (yet again) but all of this stuff totally depends upon one's age, needs, and resources. I played the game for many years: stocks, stock funds (of many areas and types), bonds, bond funds, Mmkt funds, CDs and Treasuries, real estate rentals (both commercial and residential), even second mortgages (did very nicely on those).
Of course results varied over time, and certainly we weren't into all of those things at the same time. Some were certainly turkeys, but overall we did pretty darned well. At this point we are well out of the accumulation phase and into the preservation phase. 5% does the job very nicely, thank you.

>> ... cash should not be thought of as an equity substitute.
>> Investing is a game where success usually follows those who think using probabilities, rather than certainty.
Who thinks like this?
>> Over a five-year period, the difference between stocks and cash is more than 50%. Over 20 years, it’s more than 700%.
Jeez does this need an editor for, what's the word, sophistication. It's the 5%, not only the certainty of cash.
US inflation the last year has been under 4%.

Thanks all for the enlightening thoughts. Especially to @msf for the M* story. Please know the article does not represent the view of the FT. The paper publishes a wide variety of viewpoints. As someone noted, there’s a nearby column in the same issue by El-Erian with a somewhat contrary opinion. I chose to share it more because of the attention-grabbing title plus what seems like a contrarian point of view. FWIW, former head of Bridgewater, Ray Dalio was calling cash “trash” just 2-3 years ago, but has changed his tune and thinks it’s an excellent investment today at higher rates. Who is Karen Ward? First time I ever heard of her. But she works for J.P. Morgan as some sort of investment analyst. Her job description appears in the article.
Cash represents safety. At around a 5% yield it represents a return at / near the recent level of inflation (depending which gage you use or who you believe). Personally, with Social Security and a decent pension I can afford to take more risk in investing than many. So, carrying a very low cash balance doesn’t upset me much. Most of my investments might be described as “alternative” type funds of one sort or another. I try to keep them in relative balance, adding to those that have lagged lately (utilities is one example) and skimming profits from the recent better performers. To me, that represents a more stable less risky approach than owning plain vanilla equity or balanced funds. A caveat, however, is that fees are a lot higher on most of the types of (alternative) funds I invest in. I’m willing to pay that extra price in betting I can at least keep pace with cash over multi-year periods with minimal volatility (ie: pain) and possibly exceed it by a percent or two.
To each his own. I’ve never found El-Erian particularity good at calling the shots. Always sounds pessimistic to me. Since David Giroux is such a favorite here, one might wonder what his position is currently regarding the opportunities in select stocks and longer dated fixed-income securities? Wouldn’t surprise me if his fund is carrying a healthy chunk or cash, being the conservative manager he is.
Investing is always a gamble. With an overweight cash allocation one gambles that other types of investments won’t appreciate substantially during the time one is sitting in cash and that the current appealing cash returns will persist for very long. From @msf’s linked M* article: ”Investing is a game where success usually follows those who think using probabilities, rather than certainty.”
Thanks again for all the comments.

So declares Spencer Jakab, a WSJ writer, in the October 11 WSJ.
His argument is that small caps are historically undervalued relative to large caps: "the ratio of the Russell 2000 to the Russell 100 index, which has moved between a low of 58% ... to a high of around 115% ... is back down to 74%, indicating a fairly stressed level." At the same time he admits headwinds: small caps are far more exposed to interest rate changes than are large caps. Their debt is more likely floating than fixed and the average maturity on their debt is 4.4 years versus twice that for large caps.
Why consider them? Small caps have outperformed large caps, by an average of 16.51%, coming out of every one of the past 11 recessions. (SJ's wording is odd here: "in the 12 months after a recession was declared every time." The Lords of Finance generally officially declare a recession about eight months after it ends.)
In particular, small value is a good place to be. Focusing on small-value "could have the added benefit of supercharging returns during a recovery. For example, the years 2001-2004 saw $100 investing in the S&P 500 turn into about $98 which an investment in the Russell 2000 Value grew to $180."
The "almost" is the "they do well after a recession but suffer during one" part, I would guess.
My own exposure to the small cap sub-class is divided between the ultra-cautious Palm Valley Capital (micro-cap value, $250M AUM, 13% invested in stocks, up 5.3% YTD) and the ultra-charged Grandeur Peak Global Micro (micro-cap growth, soft-closed with $41M AUM, fully invested, down 2% YTD, but top 1% over five years).

It's all the money that went in on net basis but then simply went to the "money heaven". Of course, some may ask to look at percentages, but the gross $s lost provide an interesting snapshot of the current times - note the types of funds that made the list; Twitter link also has a similar list from 4 years ago.
Billions gone are billions that are gone from investors and the market.