Assume comes up once again ! Let's say you put your plan to work a few years ago, 3,4 5. Along comes rate increase , now over 5% that's taken place. Would you be willing to stand pat , or clear out some equity & jump into CD's & T-bills or notes ? I know I've lowered equity side by 5 to 7 %.
With that said, I 'assume" ones age would play a big part where one invests.
@Observant1 Thanks for posting I enjoyed your info !

Those suggested allocations for VG PAS in 60s & 70s (60-40), early-80s (55-45), late-80s & beyond (50-50) are much higher than those for target-date funds (TDFs), including Vanguard TDFs. Of course, the questionnaire for PAS determined the specifics.
Most TDFs have 50-50 in 60s (retirement age) and then flatten out to 20-80/40-60 over several years. TDFs also have issues. But I am just noticing the huge discrepancy between the VG PAS recommendations and TDFs.

@Observant1- In the many years that I've been with MFO I've never seen anyone present such complete, detailed and interesting information with respect to a retirement plan that was recommended by a financial firm. Nice job! It should be useful to other MFO members, and initiate some healthy conversations.
Regards- OJ

Thanks, OJ!

@Observant1- In the many years that I've been with MFO I've never seen anyone present such complete, detailed and interesting information with respect to a retirement plan that was recommended by a financial firm. Nice job! It should be useful to other MFO members, and initiate some healthy conversations.
Regards- OJ

I contacted Vanguard a few weeks ago regarding an unrelated issue.
The Vanguard rep suggested a complementary meeting with a Personal Advisor Services (PAS) professional.
A preliminary financial plan was developed and sent to me yesterday.
I won't delve into all the specific details but will provide an overview since this info may be helpful to others.
Age: Early 60s
Goal: Retire in two years
Withdrawal rate: I requested a specific dollar amount which equaled 3.03% of my total portfolio
Asset allocation to age 80: 60% stock/40% bond - completed questionaires and discussed with Vanguard
Asset allocation from age 80 to 85: 55% stock/45% bond
Asset allocation from age 85 to 100: 50% stock/50% bond
The Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) is used to forecast returns for stocks, bonds,
and short-term reserves as well as inflation rates.
Monte Carlo simulations are run to project outcomes to age 100.

If FR/BL are so bullish, why have PRFRX and FFRHX been in redemption for probably 1 1/2 years?
Just read in Wednesday's WSJ that individual investors have pulled $13 billion from FR/BL mutual funds and ETF's this year. Are they the "smart money" or the "dumb money"?
Asking for a friend.

There is nothing more bullish than a bond category that is steadily rising amid heavy fund outflows. Early 2014 in junk munis come to mind. Once inflows become heavy and consistent the party is nearing an end. One of the most bullish things about bank loans earlier in the year and which I alluded in June was the steady and persistent outflows. In fact outflows had been the story for years on end. Most recently the outflows have reversed into small inflows. Hopefully @yogibearbull can shed more light on recent flows. Overall I have never been much of a fan of the bank loan category (except for mid to late 2016) because they could never compete with junk corporates performance wise. Obviously this year another rare exception.
Edit: The 10 year in the overnight market is trading at 4.44%. Yikes!

If FR/BL are so bullish, why have PRFRX and FFRHX been in redemption for probably 1 1/2 years?
Just read in Wednesday's WSJ that individual investors have pulled $13 billion from FR/BL mutual funds and ETF's this year. Are they the "smart money" or the "dumb money"?
Asking for a friend.

So, if you have SPLG /SP500 at ER of 2 bps, do you really need SPY/SP500 at ER of 9.5 bps?
Yes, would say State Street - for higher liquidity for institutions. But retail investors would be just fine with SPLG.
SPY is State Street's original cash cow that may fund its other ETF businesses. State Street wants to have it both ways for a while - low and high ER ETFs for different types of clients.
iShares/BLK used a similar trick years ago when it introduced overlapping low ER ETFs. Sure, those had poor liquidity initially, but all investors wised up and now those newer lower ER iShare ETFs are larger than its older higher ER ETFs.
Remember this when SPLG (AUM $19.9 billion) becomes bigger than SPY (AUM $411.6 billion) in a few years.

I am overweight CD’s and loving it. As an older middle aged dude it’s great not to think of the next 50% correction. The only thing I worry about is when to go out longer to lock in a living, risk free return. I think that life is cool at 5.5% and I have no FOMO at all.

Yep, I am also weighing my options of at least devoting part of my portfolio for longer CDs--maybe 2 or 3 year CDs. 2 year CDs have been the longest I have previously invested in, but with 3 year CDs over 5% now, it at least deserves some consideration. With my taxable account, I prefer limiting my CD terms to shorter options of 6 months to a yearfor liquidity purposes, but with my traditional IRA CDs, I am looking closely at longer terms. A 3 year laddering approach looks interesting to me in my IRA account.
For most of my retirement years, I had a target objective of 4 to 6% TR, using low risk bond oefs. It is a little strange to be able to get that so easily with CDs these days.

3 years, top 2% of category.
5,10, 15 years: top 1% of category.
OK by me. If additions to my account would not be non-deductible, I'd be adding.

One can't help wonder if Giroux's prowess over the years (or at least his name?) is getting over-extended by TRP? I don't like being around 'rock star' fund advisors b/c sooner or later they all end up flying too close to the sun and crashing. Of course, Giroux may be different ... my sense is that he's not comfortable doing publicity and only rarely does interviews/talks, which does put my mind at a little bit of ease as a longtime and large-position PRWCX owner.

PRWCX has an absolutely incredible long term record under Giroux. Looking nearer term, the M* numbers say the fund lost 11.94% in 2022 and is up about 12.55% so far in 2023. Since it takes a larger % increase to make up a loss, this would mean that investors in the fund are roughly back to where they were at the beginning of 2022?
That’s more of a question than an assertion. As I said, long term there is no disputing the manager’s success. I know 20.5 months is a very short term in investing. Just find it interesting to pick apart numbers in various ways. (And investors’ investment horizons appear to be getting shorter. Giroux has mentioned in the past that 3 years is a reasonable “break-even” point for this fund. There’s little doubt he has exceeded that.

From my point of view, the Fed officials "screamed" for weeks that they were going to raise rates. This is when the Fed officials come on TV several times and make the case for raising rates aggressively for weeks.
2022 was one of the worst years. Doing well is relative.

Thanks for the responses. Given that Mr Giroux is widely acknowledged to be a brilliant fund manager and the access to his talent has been limited for years I would have expected faster growth. After all, investors have been waiting to invest with Giroux for years.

The official reason for the abrupt departure is family issues back home in Toronto. That aside, the Bloomberg article mentions the difficulty recent CALPERS investment chiefs have had dealing with a sometimes obstinate, quarrelsome board of directors. Tenures have been brief in recent years.
Musicco had much success in running both public pensions and private investments in Canada before taking the CALPERS position in February, 2022. Her frequent absence from the office, related to commuting from Toronto, appeared to be one source of friction with co-workers. She emphasized direct investment over indirect ones through advisory firms to save on fees. Her attempts to buy professional sports teams was questioned by some at CALPERS. As the largest public pension fund in the country, CALPERS is seriously underfunded and needs to make up lost ground. Recent performance has been “underwhelming.”
Decent article from Yahoo: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resigning-calpers-cio-led-private-050000716.html
”Calpers appointed Musicco to CIO in February 2022, during a period in which the pension fund set its focus on growing its exposure to the private markets. In late 2021, it had adopted an asset allocation plan to increase its PE investments from 8% to 13% and added a private debt allocation of 5%. Musicco brought private market investment expertise into her new role at Calpers, joining the fund from RedBird Capital Partners as head of the firm's Canadian unit. Prior to that, Musicco managed the private markets investment program at the Investment Management Corporation of Ontario and spent 16 years at the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, where she led both the PE and public equity teams.” (Credit to Yahoo Finance)
Excellent in-depth piece from Bloomberg (if you subscribe or can otherwise find a way to access):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/biggest-us-pension-s-investment-boss-pushed-sports-deals-before-calling-it-quits
”Musicco’s attempt to import the so-called Canadian investment model, which emphasizes direct investments to reduce the fees paid to outside managers, didn’t sit well with key investing staff at Calpers, because there was no clear path communicated on how to do it, according to people close to the pension who were not authorized to speak publicly.” (Credit to Bloomberg)

Since the advent of the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index (floating rate bank loans) in 1992 there have only been three down calendar years. 2008, 2015, and 2022. In each case the index bounced back sharply the following year more than making up for the losses.
With 2023 on track for the category’s second best year since 1992 some could argue we are in the later innings of this move. Investors are notorious for chasing what has been hot based on recent performance and then regretting it. And recent performance since we began discussing bank loans here over the past many months has been exceptionally robust.

M* piece on floating rate funds, from mid 2022. It mistakenly says there are only two "medalist" floating rate funds. Fidelity's FFRHX is also a silver medalist.
In addition to the types of floating rate securities Yogi mentioned, there is also the late, unlamented category of adjustable rate mortgage funds. ARMs were very hot (with homebuyers) for a short time in the early to mid '90s as people looked for ways to reduce mortgage costs.
Investing mostly in government-backed mortgages, these ARM funds had little credit risk and in theory (being adjustable rate) little duration risk. It didn't work out that way for a variety of reasons including lag in adjustments - they often had multi-year "starter" rates. Even after a starter period ended, the loans adjusted only once or twice a year, and only within specified limits. More recently, over the past several years performance has been slow (very slow) and very steady. Not recommended, but mentioned for completeness.
Few of these funds remain. As mortgage rates declined over the years, the demand for ARMs (and thus the supply of debt) shrank. Consequently, one of the three surviving ARM funds, Franklin Adjustable U.S. Government Securities Fund FISAX changed its objective to ARMs and fixed rate mortgages last year. It is now Franklin Low Duration U.S. Government Securities Fund.
https://www.franklintempleton.com/forms-literature/download/Notice-FranklinAdjustableUSGovernmentSecuritiesFund
The remaining adjustable rate funds are FEUGX (Schwab Select List) and ESAAX.

M* Fund Reports include a fund's turnover rate for the past 10 calendar years.
You may be able to access M* Fund Reports online via your public library system.
I'm not aware of any websites which provide annual turnover statistics spanning multiple years.

I'm a "M* Investor" subscriber. They only show the last year's turnover on https://investor.morningstar.com/ and the standard Morningstar site. Am I missing something?

Hi @LogicalInvestor,
I was referring to M* Investment Research Center¹ to access fund reports via the public library.
I should have mentioned this in my prior post.
¹ "enhanced" database experience coming in September. :-(

'Tis that time of year again! Some preliminary estimates are now available. As in years past, please alphabetize your funds. To make it easier for readers post (new) next to your additions to differentiate it from your older existing posts. Be sure to check the entire page for other various posts with possible links. Thanks to everyone who contributes and posts their information! Please keep in the mind that it is early, and the estimates posted are tentative.
1290 Funds:
https://secure.alpsinc.com/MarketingAPI/api/v1/Content/1290funds/1290funds-comm-20231115.pdf
AAM Funds:
https://docs.aamlive.com/fisdocuments/marketing/mutualfund/distributions_estimated_all.pdf
AB Funds:
https://www.alliancebernstein.com/content/dam/alliancebernstein/us-retail/us-retail-pdfs/tax-center/FINAL_GEN-5796.pdf
Abrdn Funds:
https://www.abrdn.com/docs?editionId=931def41-161f-48c8-8c9f-b09701494978
Aegis Value Fund:
https://www.aegisfunds.com/assets/pdfs/Aegis_Value_Fund-2023_Distributions.pdf
Akre Fund:
https://www.akrefund.com/historical-distributions/
Alger ETFs:
https://www.alger.com/AlgerDocuments/Distrib_ETFs.pdf
Alger Fund:
https://www.alger.com/AlgerDocuments/Distrib_FUNDS.pdf
Allspring Funds:
https://www.allspringglobal.com/globalassets/assets/public/pdf/product-alerts/20231018-productalert.pdf
AlphaCentric Funds (new):
https://alphacentricfunds.com/Capital Gains/CapGains2023.pdf
American Beacon Funds:
https://www.americanbeaconfunds.com/downloads/resourcecenter/TaxAndDividend/2023EstYearEndDividends.pdf
American Century Funds:
https://www.americancentury.com/plan/tax-center/estimated-distributions/
AMG Funds:
https://media.amgfunds.com/content/dam/amgfunds/documents/tax-resource-center/AMG Funds 2023 Distributions Estimates 10-23.pdf
Angel Oak Funds:
https://angeloakcapital.com/2023-estimated-capital-gains/
AQR Funds:
https://funds.aqr.com/-/media/Funds/Tax-Documents/2023-Estimated-Distributions-Memo_Final.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=692B406626D4AB131E6059701781F089
Arbitrage Funds:
https://arbitragefunds.com/news
Aristotle Funds (updated):
https://assets.website-files.com/642414d0e893bb9d9596f597/654d668f6e8c86842fef0bff_Capital Gains_10.31.pdf
Artisan Partners Funds:
https://www.artisanpartners.com/individual-investors/resources/tax-center/distributions.html
Avantis Funds:
https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-estimated-distributions/
Ave Maria Funds:
https://avemariafunds.com/fund-family/distributions.html
Baillie Gifford Funds:
https://www.bailliegifford.com/literature-library/funds/mutual-funds/estimated-capital-gain-distribution/
Baird Funds:
https://www.bairdassetmanagement.com/siteassets/pdfs/distributions/2023-estimated-capital-gains.pdf
Baron Funds:
https://www.baronfunds.com/tax-center
Blackrock Funds:
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/fact-sheet/blackrock-funds-distribution-estimates.pdf
BNY Mellon Funds:
https://im.bnymellon.com/content/dam/im/documents/tax-forms/early-estimated-capital-gains-september-2023a.pdf
Boston Partners Funds:
https://www.boston-partners.com/uploads/2023/11/55a705d26b7fcd9a383b52c968e72b34/bp-funds-2023-estimated-cap-gain-dist-10_31_2023-website.pdf
Bretton Fund (new):
https://brettonfund.com/2023-distribution-information/
Bridge Builder Funds:
https://www.bridgebuildermutualfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/current/Bridge_Builder_Capital_Gains_Estimates_2023.pdf
Bridgeway Funds:
https://bridgewayfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/2023-Distribution-Estimates-for-Website.pdf
Brown Advisory Funds:
https://www.brownadvisory.com/sites/default/files/2023-10/2023-Distribution-Update-October.pdf
Brown Capital Management Funds (click link for Distributions under "Key Documents"):
https://www.browncapital.com/investmentstrategies/smallcompanyfundinst/
Bruce Fund (new; pays 12/18)
Ordinary income - $15.7868
STCG- 0
LTCG- $16.6610
Buffalo Funds (in Excel):
https://buffalofunds.com/wp-content/uploads/Buffalo-Funds-2023-Capital-Gains-Distribution-Estimates_10.31.2023.xlsx
Calamos Funds:
https://www.calamos.com/globalassets/media/documents/tax-center/2023-calamos-estimated-capital-gains.pdf
Calvert Funds:
https://www.calvert.com/media/public/27727.pdf
Cambiar Funds:
https://cambiar.com/capital-gains-estimate-2023/
Capital Group:
https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/tax/2023-year-end-distributions.html
Carillon Funds:
https://www.rjinvestmentmanagement.com/our-funds/fund-dividend-and-tax-information
Castle Focus Fund:
https://www.castleim.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Castle-Focus-Cap-Gain-Estimate-Nov-2-2023.pdf
Catalyst Funds (new):
https://catalystfunds.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/12/catalyst-distributions-2022-12-final-1.pdf
Champlain Funds:
https://cipvt.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Champlain-Estimated-Yr-End-Distributions-2023.pdf
Clipper Fund:
https://clipperfund.com/document/read/2023_estimated_year_end_capital_gains_distributions
Coho Funds:
https://www.cohofunds.com/relative-value-equity-fund/tax-information/
Columbia Threadneedle Funds:
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/binaries/content/assets/cti/public/2023-year-end-cap-gain-estimates.pdf
Congress Asset Funds:
https://www.congressasset.com/assets/2023-capital-gains-flyer.pdf
CRM Funds:
https://www.crmfunds.com/funds-overview/shareholder-resources/distributions/
Cullen Funds:
https://www.cullenfunds.com/srp/lit/NpKv9x/Capital-Gains-Estimates_Cullen-Funds-Mutual-Funds_31-10-2023.pdf
Davenport Funds:
https://www.investdavenport.com/download/davenport-funds-estimated-tax-info/?wpdmdl=6546
Davis Funds:
https://davisfunds.com/funds/distributions
Delaware Funds:
https://mim.fgsfulfillment.com/download.aspx?sku=CGE-RET
DF Dent Funds (new):
https://dfdent.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Capital-Gains-Distribution-2023.pdf
Diamond-Hill Funds:
https://www.diamond-hill.com/sitefiles/live/documents/distributions/DHF-year-to-date-capital-gains-as-of-8-31-23.pdf
Dimensional Funds:
https://www.dimensional.com/dfsmedia/f27f1cc5b9674653938eb84ff8006d8c/75512-source/options/download/distributions.pdf
Dodge and Cox Funds:
https://www.dodgeandcox.com/content/dam/dc/us/en/pdf/dc_us_estimated_year_end_distributions_2023.pdf
Doubleline Funds, closed end funds and ETFs:
https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/11-9-2023-DoubleLine-Funds-Estimated-Capital-Gains-1.pdf
https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/11-9-2023-DoubleLine-ETF-Estimated-Capital-Gains.pdf
https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/11-9-2023-DoubleLine-Closed-End-Funds-Estimated-Capital-Gains-1.pdf
Driehaus Funds (updated):
https://www.driehaus.com/system/uploads/fae/file/asset/419/DMF_Year_End_Distributions_2023.pdf
DWS Funds:
https://fundsus.dws.com/download.html?doctype=MARKETING&name=capgains.pdf&docId=024368

M* Fund Reports include a fund's turnover rate for the past 10 calendar years.
You may be able to access M* Fund Reports online via your public library system.
I'm not aware of any websites which provide annual turnover statistics spanning multiple years.

I'm a "M* Investor" subscriber. They only show the last year's turnover on https://investor.morningstar.com/ and the standard Morningstar site. Am I missing something?