I recall fondly this excellent thread (from May 17) containing many diverse opinions. What stood out to me was the voracity with which the proponents of cash (rather than bonds) voiced their opinions. Not to imply they were wrong. Just that it’s been really rewarding for bond / bond fund investors the past couple weeks watching the turn around. Some memorable comments from this spring.

Well, you seem to be (read, "are") picking on me with those quotes, so here's my reply.
Great. Maybe LT bond holders will continue to see massive upswings to continue to recoup their heavy losses over the past years. (Maybe not?) To wit, the vast majority of taxable bonds do NOT have 5-yr TRs equaling 5% yet.
And we'll see how long the bond party lasts, eh? Talk to me in 5 years after our CP CD ladder made us 5+% annually for that period, risk and worry free, allowing me to spend my investment time on stocks, where real money is made. To wit, with all of our stock funds UP 20%-65% this year, except one only UP ~9%, I really don't give a rat's arse what bond funds are doing. I don't want to and I don't have to! My FI money is instead parked in the 5+% CP rate lot where I don't have to waste otherwise quality investment time on it for years to come.

I recall fondly this excellent thread (from May 17) containing many diverse opinions. What stood out to me was the voracity with which the proponents of cash (rather than bonds) voiced their opinions. Not to imply they were wrong. Just that it’s been really rewarding for bond / bond fund investors the past couple weeks watching the turn around. Some memorable comments from this spring.
- ”I sold all of my bond funds in March of 2022. I have not bought any new bond funds since then, preferring Brokerage noncallable CDs and MMs. I have no plans on buying any new bond funds in the near future.”
- “+100”
- ”I’m with you.”
- ”So while bond fund investors over the next 5 years will be putting in time and effort trying to get their 4%-5% TRs, I'll be putting on a slew of golf courses, knowing that we have a 5+-yr CD ladder in place of those bond funds that is paying in excess of 5%.”
- “I look at MMs paying around 5%, CDs paying around 5.3%, and there is little to no risk there. As a retired person, I am fine with collecting 5+% for now.”
- ”As a retired person I am right with you! I am sleeping very well with little to no risk and I have NO FOMO”
- “Just bought two 12-months CDs from two large national banks with a quite satisfactory yield of 5.30%. I am not concerned about eking out a few extra basis points here or there in the future.”

Anytime we talk about CD rates we should always be sure to reference if they are CP or Not CP. BIG difference in the rates and Available Quantities, as well as the strategies/consequences of holding either.
FWIW, I rarely if ever post about Not CP CDs as I have ZERO interest in ever owning one in concert with my overall strategy on FI. All comments that follow are therefore related to brokered, CP CDs.
Brokered, CP rates for 3-yr to 5-yr CP CDs peaked at about 5.20% to 5.10% (based on my tracking, but they coulda inched a wee bit higher) respectively at two different times in 2023, several months ago and a coupla weeks ago.
They are now GONE and we are unlikely to see them again in this interest rate cycle. That said, the topic after all is interest rates, so the direction and magnitude of moves is always a roll of the dice.
Currently, the best brokered, CP rates (and Available Quantities) on Fido for these maturities are
3-yr: 4.65% (6,000)
4-yr: 4.60% (2,200)
5-yr: (None)
I suggested to investors here many months ago to try to NOT be short-sighted (and star struck) with the relatively higher rates on 3-months to 18-month CDs IF they were planning on creating a longer term CD ladder and/or wanted to take advantage of CD opportunities not seen for many prior years.
I suggested those 5+% CP longer term rates would disappear quickly and once they were gone, they would likely be gone for many years...again. Luckily, we all had two swipes at them as noted above. Some acted. Some did not. I acted and built our CD ladder out 5 years.
Those who didn't act are left with the types of questions posted by some of the most recent posters: What to do now?
Yeah, the drop in the 10-yr and CD rates SHOULD improve bond fund TRs BUT that's the rub: Do you want FDIC'd, CP, guaranteed rates of a CD ladder in the 5+% range, or do you want to roll the dice on bond funds, and IMO, basically the hope that you'll match the CD ladder TR? Plenty of worthy arguments on both sides but I will always choose the former based on my minimum FI hurdle and risk/reward considerations. Others had at least two opportunities this year to do the same but it appears they no longer will. So TMMV, and likely will.

The price of food and gas is not the big problem because housings and total expense on vehicles is a much bigger portion of someone expenses. Buying a house in many cases it at least 50% more than 3-4 years ago because prices are 30% up + mortgage rates are more than doubled. That isn't a political view.
Krugman is a political hack. This is what he said
In 2016 https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

The data and employment trends support the argument. However, people will judge economy based on what they spend most visibly (prices of food and gas). So, there is the disconnect.
However, for a middle-class family the percentage of these items is relatively small (food about 10% and gas about 6%). Plus, while prices have these items have increased some due to supply chain issues after pandemic and some simply because economy is good, people have jobs and are actually travelling and in effect creating more demand. Without demand the prices cannot easily go up. Fed is basically trying to curb the demand by increasing interest rates.
Also, if you have travelled around the world, you would see US food prices (especially meat) is relatively on the lower end of the scale. In Europe you pay a lot more for your groceries and gas if we compare US with most other developed countries. Inflation while considered high vs 40 years, it is still a very low number again compared to many other countries (well maybe Japan which often goes through deflationary cycles) I will take a bit of inflation with plenty of jobs available vs, no or negative inflation with jobs getting lost. I have lived in a hyperinflation country and the inflation worries here is just more noise than substantial.
Perceptions are also colored by political propaganda of both parties. So, where do I stand? I take the positive view with a nuance. It is neighter as bad as it is perceived, nor it is as good as it could be.

msf
In case you consider my arithmetic suspect, the same BLS table gives figures in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars:
4th Quarter, 2019 - $362
3rd Quarter, 2023 - $365
===============
FD: good catch, I would start from Q1/2020 to Q3/2023 beginning at 367, ending at 365
Just for reference: what happened in the 4 years prior, from Q1/2016 to Q4/2019: Start at 346, end at 362...just "a bit" better.
BTW, I have discussed the above with many younger people and they have told me that they are way behind in what they can purchase now vs early 2020. Housing+vehicles are the leading factors and both are a high % of their spending.

This stuff does open the debate between those employed vs retired. The employee wages do rise with inflation (maybe not quite as much after tax adjustment), but still in the direction. Whereas retirees are on their own and have to manage the portfolio to get to that positive outcome. Given the total returns in 60/40 over the last 2 years combined one can see where the angst divide lives.

Interesting BBG piece about how a new crop of PE funds (and the existing players) may be setting up for market drama in the coming years due to insanely-crowded trades and positioning ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/ken-griffin-s-citadel-hedge-fund-rivals-draw-scrutiny-over-crowding-leverage?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg
Nevertheless, I'm sure those highly-compensated pension fund advisors will continue singing the praises of such 'alternates' as a good 'diversifier' despite their risks and often exhorbitant fees.....and that many pension fund committees will be only too happy (or stupid / untrained) to go along with it or ask serious questions.

So, an interesting development on the CDs I've posted about here recently.
The previously referenced bank that had loaded 40K-60K of CP CDs in most of the respective maturities (2-yrs thru 5-yrs) accelerated the execution of the Settlement of my two BUYs.
More importantly to others, they pulled all of the outstanding Quantities from the Fido platform.
Not sure what happened there. I've spoken several times over the years to very experienced Fido FI guys and been told institutions sometimes goof on BUYs and their errored/re-thunk BUYs duly end up on the Secondary Issues lists.
Perhaps this bank goofed on the loading side? I dunno. (But I think it did!) I do know I've never seen this happen before.
Bottom Line: The trend continues DOWN on available CP CD rates and Quantities Available.

"record amount of charges on credit cards"... yeah, I've been reading that one for over 70 years now...
"food still very expensive."... now that's for damned sure.

Yup. Every week that I shop at Aldi's, another item that I purchase is up in price. This week it's Clancy's Tortilla Chips up from $1.99 to $2.09 and Friendly Farms Light yogurt up $0.15.

“I step out of my bed these days and then sit down in my wheelchair. So I am paying some price for old age. But I prefer it to being dead. And whenever I feel sad about being in a wheelchair, I think well you know, Roosevelt ran the whole damn country for 12 years in a wheelchair. So I’m just trying to make this wheelchair thing last as long as Roosevelt did.”

"record amount of charges on credit cards"... yeah, I've been reading that one for over 70 years now...
"food still very expensive."... now that's for damned sure.

Charlie Munger was my favorite curmudgeon investor.
He was Warren Buffett's closest friend and consigliere for many years.
His influence on Berkshire Hathaway was tremendous.
I liked that Mr. Munger always spoke his mind - you knew exactly where he stood.
The Washington Post published a nice story about Mr. Munger earlier today.
RIP Charlie Munger.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/charlie-munger-dry-witted-sidekick-to-warren-buffett-dies-at-99/ar-AA1kGpRF

Hi @BaluBalu. This is the information I was looking for earlier regarding Part D, but covers Parts A and B. The page read is short and contains decent examples. Note: About 15 years ago I knew a retired lady who was a good accountant and managed the tax books for her daughter's small hardware store. The mother had always had good health, had started Medicare at age 65, including Part D for meds. A number of years passed and she didn't really have any benefit from Part D, as she didn't take any meds. The daughter was paying the monthly premiums as an expense from the store operations. Together they decided to STOP Part D. A few years later she needed to start taking prescriptions and decided the Part D plan would help with pricing. She was able to obtain a Part D again; but from having stopped and started again, she had a monetary penalty applied monthly that remained until her passing. Medicare and avoiding late enrollment penalties.

Just a side note to this discussion on Medicare IRMAA. I see IRMAA started in 2003. I wonder what has kept the government from enacting the same type regulation to Social Security? If they did it with Medicare 20 years ago, a precedent, why hasn't it even been debated for SS? Just surprising to me.

Thanks Yogi. Excellent chart / post. A few years ago I thought nothing of having 10 K sitting at the credit union earning near 0. Cash rates were so low it didn’t much matter and I felt good supporting the local CU. But like most everybody now I’d guess, that cash has migrated to mm funds. So it goes,

It may not be everyone's cup of tea, but I bought a government agency bond, AA+ rating, at 6.25%, 10 year duration. Callable - yes. Will it last 10 years? Most probably not, But I'll take the rate as long as they want to give it.

”On the way to my doctor, I found I was leaking brake fluid.”

I hope the doctor plugged that leak. :)
Anybody’s guess as to why all the insurance ads. Gosh - Several I’ve thought over the years were damned funny. Well written. Well acted. Talent on display. You don’t have to buy their insurance. What’s not to like?
Recently, Progressive’s “The Other Side of the Rest Stop” caught my fancy. Plays on class division - How the the rich live vs the common folks. Darned funny if you pay attention. Corny too I’ll admit.
https://images.app.goo.gl/kP9kuEc6wkVf24oFA

Some more background info:
Intro piece on mREITS, including basic mechanics and risks:
https://money.usnews.com/investing/real-estate-investments/articles/how-to-invest-in-mortgate-reits

[Head of income equities at TCW, Iman] Brivanlou says: "Dividend yields are a direct function of the riskiness of the underlying collateral as well as the amount of leverage employed by the mREIT, so we would urge caution and increased scrutiny if an mREIT is offering an unusually high yield." ...
"Most mREITs employ leverage to produce their returns," Brivanlou says. "Without leverage these entities could not operate profitably, which makes them dependent on a stable source of funding."

The two main parts of the real estate market in which SEVN invest are middle market and transitional. Each is a section of the real estate market where one hopes to get above average returns with all that implies for risk. Background sources below are from companies working in these markets (thus interested in promoting them).
Middle market: https://www.primealpha.com/middle-market-real-estate-2018-06
Transitional: https://lev.co/blog/financing/transitional-real-estate/
For a sense of rates associated with middle market, see p. 9 on Morgan Stanley's 3Q2023 report on floating rate loans. It shows that average coupons on middle market loans are higher than BBB, BB, and B rated leveraged floating rate leveraged loans, and only slightly higher than coupons on CCC rated loans. CCC's 19.4% YTW is way above market average; middle market at 13.6% is next highest, still well above market average.
https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_floatingrateloanmarketmonitor_q32023.pdf
To refine yogi's comment about most of the YTD return coming from January, SEVN gave back 3/4 of that gain between March and May, and then gained a similar amount from May to July.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SEVN&compare=&id=p67735641417
Over the past five years, its total return has been almost exactly zero. I'd call that "flat", except that its volatility is off the scale. See this comparison with JNK:
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SEVN&compare=JNK&id=p02208364318