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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The BOND KING says
    @FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!

    Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
    Why would anyone predict the future?
    Great question!
    I dunno.
    But many former M* participants will likely remember a couple of years ago when you presented YOUR projections of TR and SD for THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (sic) for a long list of bond OEFs.
    Do you still have those projections? Would love to see them again!
    Given your "bond OEFs are better than sliced bread" mentality at that time, and the last coupla years of bondland disasters, gotta think (read, "know") YOUR projections were off by miles!
    But I trust (in your world) not as far off as your former bond god, now monthly punching bag, Gundlach!
    stillers stillers in Other Investing
  • The BOND KING says
    @FD1000, way to go digging those. @Baseball_Fan: Great term "confidently wrong"! I love it!
    Mr. G isn't the only "expert" that has been wrong but still keep predicting. I collected over the years many of these for other experts.
    Why would anyone predict the future?
    FD1000 in Other Investing
  • When the Market is Rising
    Sincere props and congrats to you @FD1000, glad to see someone doing well in the markets, they are challenging and tricky for sure....
    What makes me go hmm, when I read your posts is why does a guy who is comfortably retired make huge moves in and out into various markets when you obviously "have enough"...kinda like an old Harley, if its running good, don't F*#K with it, leave the wrenches in your tool box.
    Your models/strategy has obviously worked well but say what the heck would happen if y Iran launches a barrage of missles that overwhelm the missle defenses...what happens if Biden takes seriously ill or worse and we get Kamala in as president (I am intentionally NOT trying to bait anyone into a political kerfuffle) just saying that would jerk the markets limit down, no? You'd likely lose several years of profit in your investments, so why expose yourself to that possiblity?
    Good Luck to you and ALL,
    Baseball Fan
    Baseball_Fan in Other Investing
  • When the Market is Rising
    I said the following on another forum starting on Nov 1.
    ==============
    In other threads I said to start looking to get into the market in October and wait for the entrance.
    SPY had a ST+mid term signal buy
    VIX is down
    Other stuff looks better too.
    Momo looks good in the last several days. All = a buy before closing.
    ==============
    You can just play it simple: no diversification, no predictions, no narrow range funds, looks like tilting LC growth is here to stay which = SPY/VOO or you can gamble and use some QQQ.
    Earlier in the year I posted that value looks better, based on 2022, but within several weeks, growth started to lead again.
    ===============
    I stick with a simpler approach. Under/Over value don't exist ST(weeks-months) and sometimes for years. I have no idea about a short covering because I don't look for it and I don't know when it started and how long.
    I always listen to the Fed. The Fed blinked on Wed. The charts sensed it even sooner, the chart confirmed it. Most stock+bond funds lost in the last several weeks, usually, they recover some or all.
    I changed 80% of my portfolio last week which I held for several months. My previous funds are still good but why not make more for several days-weeks. Small changes do not make sense to me, never did.
    I also said before that usually it's that time of the year.
    I would stick to what worked lately (weeks-months) and wide range funds. I don't know why investors look for bottoms for a narrow sector or what MAY do better (gold, health care, energy, value) when something has been working for months (SPY,QQQ)
    When will I sell? no idea, the chart and uptrend will tell me what to do.
    I actually mad at myself as to why I didn't change 100%, I got lazy. These periods are the ones where one week can equal several months of performance.
    FD1000 in Other Investing
  • The BOND KING says
    Mr. G is the king without clothes
    FEB 2022([www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
    "Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
    Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2%
    ====================
    MAR 16 2022 (www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html)
    G: stocks will go higher from here
    Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
    ==================
    August 26, 2021(www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down"
    Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move.
    ==================
    Gundlach predictions for 2019 (www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html)
    EM should outperform. Reality: they underperformed
    Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 28%.
    The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat
    ==================
    Gundlach predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
    Reality: On 12-31-2021 it was at about 1.5%.
    FD1000 in Other Investing
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Nov 4 Episode:
    In this exclusive interview, he talks about his deep value, contrarian approach, his current strategy, and the lessons he’s learned over the years.
    Berkowitz’s Fairholme Fund was once a top performer, returning better than 13% annualized returns in its first decade. But it has since lagged the market and become extremely volatile. Today, 82% of the fund is concentrated in one stock: The St. Joe Company, a Florida real estate developer and manager.
    Berkowitz reveals the highs and lows of his career and shares his insights on value investing, contrarian thinking, and the future of the markets.

    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    Curious development with regard to new issue CDs available at Fidelity today. I’m setting up another 5-year CD ladder in our taxable account so we’ll have cash available to pay property taxes near the end of each year. Yesterday, there were a bunch of noncallable 2-year CDs available paying about 5.4%. They all disappeared overnight, and I could find only one noncallable 2-year CD paying 5.3%. I ended up buying a 21-month CD yielding 5.4%, but don’t understand why all the 2-years disappeared overnight.
    Hmmm...not really all that "curious" to some investors at least.
    You may have missed that @hank duly asked on Nov 2:
    Anybody know how today’s sharp dip in rates across the board is affecting CDs? I’d imagine a bit of a crunch to get in the door before rates drop further. Are 1 & 2 year CD’s above 5% still available?
    Well, we got some of our answers!
    A HUGE move in 10-yr Treasury this week caused potential CD BUYers of ALL durations to act.
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/20/first-time-seeing-treasury-yield-move-like-this-in-20-year-career-says-exante-datas-jens-nordvig.html
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/11/01/u-s-10-year-yield-falls-sharply-following-better-than-expected-treasury-announcement.html
    NOTE: There was a similar, though even more dramatic run on ALL CP CD offerings earlier this year, following a previous 10-yr plunge. After that run the CP CD cupboards were completely bare! (There are still a few left this time!)
    Over the next several months after that prior plunge, and right up until last week's action, ALL rates had moved UP to their respective YTD highs. This time though, IMO, FWIW, we are now likely past peak CD rates.
    There will be plenty of, new, New Issue offerings posted next week. It will be interesting to see just how far respective maturities rates have fallen due to the action on the 10-yr this this past week. Thenwe'll have all of our answers to the great questions posed by @hank!
    All the more reason to
    (1) looking forward, get up speed on how to play in the Secondary Issues sandlot, which is where I will be spending considerable time as several rungs fall off our ladder in Nov-Feb and
    (2) in retrospect, have already bought longer duration CDs (that is, 3-5-yr) as I had been suggesting on other prior CD threads.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    Curious development with regard to new issue CDs available at Fidelity today. I’m setting up another 5-year CD ladder in our taxable account so we’ll have cash available to pay property taxes near the end of each year. Yesterday, there were a bunch of noncallable 2-year CDs available paying about 5.4%. They all disappeared overnight, and I could find only one noncallable 2-year CD paying 5.3%. I ended up buying a 21-month CD yielding 5.4%, but don’t understand why all the 2-years disappeared overnight.
    Someone with lots of cash and expectation of interest rates falling down could have mopped all those issues. Also, Banks that issued them might be cancelling unsold issues if they see rates falling.
    Investor Investor in Fund Discussions
  • The BOND KING says
    Too cute by half, but still a huge fund of savvy. I left his retail core-plus bond fund some years ago.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Longleaf Partners reduces expenses on two funds
    Would be interested to hear if anyone here has stuck with them over the years. They had such a good story years ago, but I gave up when the returns didnt materialize
    sma3 in Fund Discussions
  • Panama Canal drought: El Nino. news item.
    David, it seems to me there is a leak somewhere. Someone call a plumber ! On a more serious side I do recall Old Man River running high to very high in the spring. On the other hand I can't recall many years where the water level dropped so low ! I believe more than climate change is effecting the water level. Irrigation & increased draws are also playing a part.
    Derf in Other Investing
  • High yield long term CDs
    Curious development with regard to new issue CDs available at Fidelity today. I’m setting up another 5-year CD ladder in our taxable account so we’ll have cash available to pay property taxes near the end of each year. Yesterday, there were a bunch of noncallable 2-year CDs available paying about 5.4%. They all disappeared overnight, and I could find only one noncallable 2-year CD paying 5.3%. I ended up buying a 21-month CD yielding 5.4%, but don’t understand why all the 2-years disappeared overnight.
    Tarwheel in Fund Discussions
  • the Samhain edition of MFO is live
    And either spooky or briskly autumnal, depending on your perspective.
    Devesh and David Sherman had a sort of eat-and-greet in October. One thread of their discussion is whether stocks are worth owning just now. That seems to build on Howard Marks' "sea change" article. We shared David's thoughts, bits and pieces of Marks' article and then I tried to follow up by looking at the effects of stocks on your portfolio.
    The traditional asymmetry would say: returns up, volatility way up, and so risk-adjusted returns down. That's certainly true in the very long run, say 1926-2008. Since 2008, in a period I dubbed The Great Distortion, that relationship dissolved. Stocks boosted both raw returns and risk-adjusted returns as the Fed's action eviscerated cash, punished caution and rewarded speculation. But if you begin factoring in the years beyond The Great Distortion, the 20 year record is the target in my essay, suddenly (a) more risks = falling risk adjusted returns and (b) high-yield bonds start working as a risk-reduced equity substitute. Not sure that "bonds for the long run" is the mantra of the future, but I wanted to share the perspective and a bit of data.
    Did a quick study of First Foundation Total Return, mostly at the board's behest. The record is unambiguous but I'm still not 100% sure of why. The change from its performance as Highland TR to its new incarnation is pretty striking. And the managers are pretty ... hmm, restrained in the frequency and bread of their written communication with shareholders?
    Lynn did a great piece on short-term momentum and The Shadow did great work on tracking down the reopenings of solid funds, among other bits o' industry intelligence.
    I'm intriguing by the impending GMO US Quality ETF, which might be interesting for those of us who'd have to choose between picking up something nice for the holidays or making the $500,000,000 minimum for GMO's lowest cost shares.
    David
    David_Snowball in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    Holding period would have some bearing on how good of a deal it was.
    Sure. That CD was 3-yr term.
    But think of it this way. We're talking guaranteed, FDIC'd, fixed income. An investor has made a decision to lock up $50K for 3 years. The only real question is, "Does the investor want to spend a wee bit more time on the BUY to possibly earn MORE on it?" If "Yes"...
    To wit...
    As of yesterday, Fido had New Issue, CP, 5.15%, 3-yr CDs available.
    An investor spends 15 minutes scoping out Secondary Issues, and finds a CP, 4.0%, 3-yr, CD that someone is selling for a whopping discount, that has an effective yield of (ANYTHING ABOVE 5.15% but let's say) 5.50%. The investor BUYs the latter.
    Over 3 years, total earnings on the former is $7,725 and $8,250 on the latter, for a difference of $525. (As NOTED in my first post on this thread, the mechanics of the the latter also gives the investor MORE $ at time of BUY via the discount.) That money can also be invested, or spent!
    The only REAL question THEN is,
    "Was $525 more in total earnings over 3 years worth the investor's 15 minutes?
    FWIW, I answer "Yes" to that every day of the week. YMMV.
    Wouldn't the brokerage take advantage on this instead of passing it down to it's customers ?
    Not sure I understand your notion here.
    Brokerages are just the middle men in CD transactions. On a $50K CD BUY, Fido gets a ($ based) $50 Commission. The Commission is included in the above-noted numbers.
    Thanks for your time, much appreciated.
    You're welcome.
    Busy day. Might be able to add more over the weekend.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    @stillers : "
    I've netted anywhere from a % or 2 to upwards of 4%-5% extra proceeds over the years. For example, one BUY I still have the detail on shows I paid $47,739 (priced at 92.931) for a $50,000 CD for an effective Discount of 4.52%. Yeah, after all of the funds slushed through over the CD's life, that was worth my time and effort! "
    First question , how long did you have to hold this CD in order to collect the $50K ?
    Holding period would have some bearing on how good of a deal it was.
    Wouldn't the brokerage take advantage on this instead of passing it down to it's customers ?
    Thanks for your time, much appreciated.
    My opinion of brokerage education about CD investing is not that good. When I have engaged in communication with brokerage experts on CDs, they fail to do a good job comparing the differences between brokerage CDs and bank CDs, fail to do a good job of explaining ongoing value fluctuations of brokerage CDs that are reflected at the end of each trading day, fail to explain termination fee information for brokerage CDs, fail to address liquidity concerns for brokerage CDs in taxable accounts vs tax deferred accounts, fail to discuss ways of measuring the financial health of banks offering CDs on the brokerage platform, fail to discuss callable vs. non-callable CDs, etc. etc.
    These threads about CDs, started by posters with limited knowledge about brokerage CDs, can be very complicated, especially when the OP provides minimal information about the details of their personal financial situation and investing objectives.
    dtconroe in Fund Discussions
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold the I-Bonds I bought a couple of years ago, now that the combined yield is less than 4%. Although newly issued I-Bonds are yielding about 5.3%, I’m going to reinvest the money in my CD-Treasury ladder due to its greater flexibility.
    Tarwheel in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    @stillers : "
    I've netted anywhere from a % or 2 to upwards of 4%-5% extra proceeds over the years. For example, one BUY I still have the detail on shows I paid $47,739 (priced at 92.931) for a $50,000 CD for an effective Discount of 4.52%. Yeah, after all of the funds slushed through over the CD's life, that was worth my time and effort! "
    First question , how long did you have to hold this CD in order to collect the $50K ?
    Holding period would have some bearing on how good of a deal it was.
    Wouldn't the brokerage take advantage on this instead of passing it down to it's customers ?
    Thanks for your time, much appreciated.
    Derf in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    @stillers : Thanks for the info. Would you mind commenting more on what would be a good buy on the secondary market & how to figure out what one's profit would be. Thanks for your time, Derf
    Sure, but keep in mind, there have been very few good opportunities, if any, in the (Fido, at least) Secondary Issues market over the past several months. We'll find out whassup with the current offerings via this exercise! A coupla rungs drop off my ladder this month so let's get it on!
    NOTE: There is a LOT to know about all this. I'll try to provide the whole enchilada but will surely miss some stuff that perhaps can be resolved via questions.
    NOTE: Fido has a very worthy Fixed Income Desk filled with some of the sharpest minds I've ever encountered on all things Fixed Income. Suggest using them as your ultimate source. Depending on workload, they may very well walk you through the scoping. But better to have done some work yourself in advance, allowing you to compare what you developed as a possible BUY to what they KNOW are the best offerings on the table! And no, I'm not providing their number here - readily available by calling main Fido number.
    NOTE: BUYing on the Secondary Issues market is a wee bit different than New Issues as respect to your funds flows. You may BUY a 3.00% CP, 3-yr CD for a whopping discount and earn IN TOTAL more than a New Issue 5.15%. The difference? You will be able to internally book a potentially BIG time interest gain at time of BUY, but you'll have 3.00% interest payments over the life of the CD versus the 5.15%. On the flip side, you'll have the Discount in your pocket at the time of the BUY to invest wisely (sic) elsewhere.
    Alright, off we go...
    First, you need to have a Fido a/c to even view the Secondary Issues offerings.
    (Same CDs are usually available on both Fido and VG. No experience with other platforms.)
    On top ribbon, go to News & Research
    Then Fixed Income, Bonds & CDs
    Then CDs & Ladders
    Then Secondary CDs (Link is under the current rates)
    Enter your Maturity Dates (I'll use 11/2023 to 12/2026, 3-yr, for this exercise)
    Note that the highest rate on New Issue 3-yr Call Protected CDs is currently 5.15%
    So that will guide me to look for something better than 5.15%
    Enter at least 5.15% as the minimum Ask Yield to Worst
    At the Show More Criteria link
    Enter a Price & Coupon max of something near but under 100 (I'm using 99.908)
    NOTE: Anything above this ain't worth looking at - selling at a Premium!
    Select Yes for Call Protection
    Enter other desired variables there if any
    Press See #### CUSIPS
    You are now In The Game!
    Sort data in descending order by Ask column, Price and/or Yield to Worst
    Note: Anything priced at/above 99 might be a worthy BUY but that's a general line of demarcation (so-to-speak) to gauge the overall opportunities. I'm always trying to score under say 99 and change, but of course that generally means you are living with a pretty low Coupon CD for its life.
    NOTE: Some/many following along are likely getting a wee bit confused by now but it all shakes out in the end!
    And to address one other part of the question here...
    I'm always shooting for something that's worth my time and effort to qualify as a "good buy."
    YMMV.
    I've netted anywhere from a % or 2 to upwards of 4%-5% extra proceeds over the years. For example, one BUY I still have the detail on shows I paid $47,739 (priced at 92.931) for a $50,000 CD for an effective Discount of 4.52%. Yeah, after all of the funds slushed through over the CD's life, that was worth my time and effort!
    Gonna post this much now so this stuff ain't lost.
    Will follow-up with another post picking up from here.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • High yield long term CDs
    @Jan: "I saw a 5.8% yield on a 10 year CD through my Fidelity brokerage account.
    The bank can call the rate and I haven’t checked the penalty for early withdrawal but I imagine it would be harsh..."
    Unlike CDs issued directly by banks to customers, there is not a "penalty (per se) for early withdrawal" of brokerage CDs. That's not the mechanics of a brokerage CD - you cannot just withdraw your money.
    If you want out of a brokerage CD before maturity, you must list it for sale on the "Secondary Issues" market.
    There are currently hundreds/thousands (?) of Fido brokerage CDs that owners no longer want to own. Virtually none of them are selling now, and haven't been selling for many months. Owners are generally asking far too much for their unwanted CDs and investors are far more apt to buy "New Issues."
    Aside: FWIW, I've made a bunch of easy money over the years playing in the "Secondary Issues" market, but have been unable to score a worthy BUY there all of 2023.
    Bottom Line: If you BUY a brokerage CD, be reasonably certain (read "absolutely certain") that you WILL hold it to maturity. Your "penalty" for wanting out of it is effectively the inability to sell it on the "Secondary Issues" market and you being stuck with it until maturity. In a best case scenario, you might be lucky enough in the current market to SELL it for a substantial discount (loss).
    And FWIW, "callable" is a proverbial four-letter word to me - I have/would NEVER buy or own one.
    stillers stillers in Fund Discussions
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    @MikeM - I’m not in Warren Buffett’s league. Nor do I expect, or even hope, the 3 equities I hold (3.33% each) will perform better than Buffett’s Berkshire. So, for those who want to duplicate Buffett’s return, they should put 100% into BRK. They would, ISTM, be assured of earning whatever Buffett does.
    You also make the case for owning funds over individual equities. I agree on that point as a general rule. 90% of my assets are in funds. What I see in having some limited stock holdings are (1) an opportunity to dampen the volatility of an “all fund” portfolio and (2) a way to reduce average management fees across the portfolio. To be sure, those potential benefits come at increased risk. No two ways about it.
    I have no long term record of owning individual stocks (umm …only 2-3 years). So you might be right that “average” retail investors (like you and me) should not own individual stocks - that it’s an area only for professionals like Buffett to participate in. I really can’t say. I was simply trying honestly to answer your earlier questions which I took as:
    - Has exposure to individual stocks helped or hurt your overall return? (both)
    - Have you compared your individual stocks’ performance to a broader index? (no)
    To Mike’s point - Re ”comparative indexes”.
    Mike, I track about 20 mutual funds / etfs (and 1 stock) daily for clues about volatility. I especially like to look at VWINX, PRWCX, BRK.B, PRSIX, AOK, ABRZX, TMSRX, BAMBX.
    For performance longer term I like to watch TRRIX, PRPFX, VWINX. But - No, I have no objective measure of how I’m doing. Take whatever the market gives me. Keep volatility low. Enjoy the ride.
    Hope that answers your question. :)
    hank in Other Investing