Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Crypto market crash hits Trump family, wiping out $1 billion of their fortune
    Following are excerpts from a current report in El Pais USA:
    Their wealth has fallen from $7.7 billion at the beginning of September to the current $6.7 billion, according to Bloomberg. The memecoin linked to the president has plunged 85%, while Trump Media’s shares have tumbled 70%
    In just over a month, the crypto market has lost $1.2 trillion in value. The steady declines since mid-October have erased much of the gains received by both small and large investors. Among the latter is a very well-known figure: U.S. President Donald Trump, who is also partly responsible for the euphoria the sector experienced until October.
    But the Trump effect has completely vanished, with digital assets falling back to levels seen before his term. His direct support of the sector and entry into crypto businesses fueled short-term excitement, but investors have forgotten about that now. Today, the focus of the debate is the potential AI bubble and interest-rate cuts. And the Trump business empire has felt the shock of reality: since September, it has lost at least $1 billion of its fortune (dropping from $7.7 billion at the beginning of September to the current $6.7 billion), according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a decline largely due to the Trump family’s growing ties to crypto projects.
    The Trump family went all-in on digital assets: they launched tokens, created companies, invested in the industry, pardoned convicted crypto tycoon Changpeng Zhao, and legislated in favor of the sector, pushing major cryptocurrencies to historic highs. But in this market — marked by extreme volatility and speculation — no one is spared, not even the president. A good example of this was the launch, a few days before Trump’s inauguration, of the memecoin $TRUMP, a token with no backing whatsoever beyond being linked to the tycoon’s image. Minutes after its release, euphoria broke out and the token reached a value of more than $15 billion. But like every speculative wave, the excitement was short-lived, and its price plunged by up to 76% within a few hours.
    In these past months, $TRUMP has gone through ups and downs, but since mid-August its declines have intensified, and it has lost around 40% of its value; since its launch, it is down 85%. As of today, the size of the Trump family’s stake in the project is unclear; according to Bloomberg estimates, those close to him hold around 40% of all outstanding tokens. At current prices, that stake is worth about $310 million, implying a loss of $117 million since the end of August.
    But this is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Trump family’s crypto empire. With their flagship project, the crypto platform World Liberty Financial, they issued the WLFI token, which has plunged 38% since early September: those close to the president hold an amount of tokens that reached an accounting value of roughly $6 billion at its peak, but which today are worth half that — about $3.15 billion — according to Bloomberg data. These assets, however, are not included in the agency’s calculations, as they are not traded on organized markets.

  • BOA Warns of Emerging Credit Risks Tied to Sports Gaming & Prediction Markets
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    The chief executive of Robinhood Markets took the stage at the online brokerage’s annual summit in Las Vegas this fall decked out in a race-car driver’s jumpsuit and customized Nikes.
    Vlad Tenev told the hundreds of cheering traders in the audience that they had chosen “one of the most intense lifestyles out there.” He compared trading to driving a race car. “A finely tuned machine can make all the difference,” he said, “and that’s the role we feel Robinhood plays for our active investors.”
    Risk-taking is back for individual investors, and few people have done more to stoke those spirits than the 38-year-old Tenev. Robinhood’s trading app makes it easy not just to buy and sell ordinary stocks, but to invest in options, cryptocurrencies and other exotic financial products, even to make sports bets and play the prediction markets.
    The company’s critics liken the environment to a casino, but its fans credit Robinhood with democratizing the lucrative world of sophisticated investments.
    “He’s almost building a cult,” said Aaron Cook, a 28-year-old plumber who was in the audience in Las Vegas. Cook said he had used his profits from trading stocks, options and memecoins to buy a Jeep Wrangler and a $60,000 home.
    A host of new products have entered retail-investment markets in recent years and worked their way into the mainstream. Investors are wagering on the price of bitcoin and piling into ultrarisky types of options, such as the “zero-day” variety that expire rapidly and require perfect timing. They are buying futures contracts tied to all sorts of events, betting on whether a Taylor Swift album will top the Spotify charts or whether the Green Bay Packers will beat the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
    Comments:
    • Gambling from your own home! What can possibly go wrong?
        (Other than maybe losing the home?)
    • A $60,000 home?     Say what???

  • Conestoga Mid Cap Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1175813/000139834425021228/fp0096306-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0096306-1_497.htm
    CONESTOGA FUNDS
    CONESTOGA MID CAP Fund
    Supplement dated November 24, 2025
    to the Prospectus dated January 31, 2025
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS. THIS SUPPLEMENT SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
    On November 19, 2025, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Conestoga Funds determined to close and liquidate the Conestoga Mid Cap Fund (the “Fund”), effective on or about January 31, 2026. This decision was made after careful consideration from the Fund’s investment adviser, Conestoga Capital Advisors, LLC, of the Fund’s asset size, strategic importance, current expenses and historical performance. In connection with the pending liquidation, the Fund will discontinue accepting orders for the purchase of Fund shares after the close of business on November 24, 2025.
    On or around the close of business on January 31, 2026, the Fund will distribute pro rata all of its assets in cash to its shareholders, and all outstanding shares will be redeemed and cancelled. Prior to that time, the proceeds from the liquidation of portfolio securities will be invested in cash equivalent securities or held in cash. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective.
    BECAUSE THE FUND WILL BE CLOSED AND LIQUIDATED ON OR ABOUT JANUARY 31, 2026, WE RECOMMEND THAT YOU CONSIDER SELLING YOUR SHARES PRIOR TO THAT DATE. You may sell shares on any business day by contacting us directly by mail or by telephone at 1-800-494-2755. If you invest through a financial institution, you should contact the financial institution for more information on how to sell your shares. If you still hold shares of the Fund on or about January 31, 2026, we will automatically redeem your shares for cash and remit the proceeds to you (via check or wire) based on the instructions listed on your account.
    The sale or liquidation of your shares will generally be a taxable event. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation.
    Please contact Conestoga Funds at 1-800-494-2755 for more information.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    Consolidated everything at Vanguard except one small HSA at Fidelity since VG didn't have an HSA choice at the time I opened it. Haven't been to a brick and mortar bank/brokerage in 20, maybe 30,40 years that I can remember. Although I have no complaints with Vanguard if I had to do over knowing what I know now I'd pick Fidelity as they have better financial tools.
  • New Retiree question. Use more than one retail brokerage for whatever reason ???
    We have been Fidelity and Vanguard customers since the 90’s. Both firms were my 401(K) administrators with different jobs we had. Two years ago, we consolidated most of our Vanguard’s IRA accounts to Fidelity for ease of management. While Vanguard offers many low cost index funds and ETFs, we prefer Fidelity since it has many more financial planning tools than that of Vanguard. Don’t think any large brokerage is perfect, but Fidelity able to meet 90% of our needs. Although we are not their Wealth Management client, there is a private number that you can call them directly.
    We rollover our 401(K) to Fidelity. They make the 3-way phone call arrangement ahead of time, where the process is completed over the phone. The rollover took about 5-7 business days to complete, and Fidelity will keep you informed along the way.
  • SEC approves Dimensional Fund Advisors launch of ETF share class for 13 mutual funds
    I did not find "authoritative" information via the DFA website or elsewhere.
    PDFs from two financial services firms did include the following statement.
    "Unlike traditional fund managers where advisers can place business immediately,
    advisers must complete rigorous training at their own expense before they can recommend
    Dimensional funds to their clients. DFA want to be satisfied the adviser’s knowledge,
    understanding, and business processes share an affinity with their own.
    In addition, advisers are encouraged to follow a program of continual education and improvement."
    https://www.aesinternational.com/hubfs/All%20About%20You%20-%20Wealth/Post%20Discovery/Why%20Use%20DFA.pdf
    https://1435699331.rsc.cdn77.org/operations/2020/Dimensional%20Ethos%20v.2.0.pdf
  • This Day in Markets History
    A little more from DuckDuckGo-
    Victor Incendy (the missing CEO) remains an international fugitive and has not been found to this day. He disappeared amid allegations of financial deceit and fraud related to Cascade International Inc.
  • Partnership between Nasdaq and Singapore bourse.
    sgx has long been a haven for companies desiring better governance (and appearance) than china\HK listings. they have been boosted by the 'china+1' and smaller full china departure trend for western trade partners, not to mention the frenemy position most of south asia holds toward china.
    but i have to say that sgx has been susceptible to rolling out every financial gimmick (as a toll taker) if shown any traction in other markets. spacs, crypto, etc...
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    Winning, as it relates to investing, means having the financial means to achieve your goals.
    Beating some arbitrary benchmark is irrelevant.

    To some extent the goals can be modified as return dictates: Less expensive motor vehicles, shorter vacations, $25 scotch instead of $50. 2 - 3 dolls instead of 10.
    And for some, making 2% less than the next fella and not avoiding ulcers is a fine trade off.
  • Investing In AI Technology
    "Nvidia reported record sales and strong guidance Wednesday, helping soothe jitters
    about an artificial intelligence bubble that have reverberated in markets for the last week."
    "In recent weeks, investors have sold off big tech names, worried that companies
    are spending far too much money
    on data centers, chips, and other infrastructure
    in the race to design and operate the world’s most powerful AI models,
    with little hope of recouping their investments in the near term."
    "Wednesday’s result will allow investors to breathe a sigh of relief.
    Each Nvidia quarterly earnings report has come to be seen as a financial Super Bowl
    of sorts as the AI boom has taken off.
    The company is regarded as a bellwether for both the health of the tech industry
    and the market as a whole."
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/nvidia-profits-soar-soothing-investor-jitters-over-ai-boom/ar-AA1QLvOM
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    Winning, as it relates to investing, means having the financial means to achieve your goals.
    Beating some arbitrary benchmark is irrelevant.
    True to a degree. I used to play tennis with a guy that sold his business for 10-15 million in 1995. He has been invested in 90+% munis.
    He could be in 100% cash? Do you call it a win?
    Someone who read that if you have enough, don't play the stock market anymore and invested in the total bond index, BND, in the last 15 years and made 2.2% annually...is it a win?
    The biggest problem is that most can't define their goals with a specific number for performance, SD and max draw to know if they won. :-)
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    Winning, as it relates to investing, means having the financial means to achieve your goals.
    Beating some arbitrary benchmark is irrelevant.
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    None of my friends like to talk about investing. From the little that they’ve said, it seems that they all use financial advisors. I’ve got no problem with that, but find investing very interesting and would enjoy talking about it.
    its the same here. most will say "our guy says we are doing great" and have no idea whether they are or not and are just happy that someone says its doing great.
    I'm not interested in this because i'm trying to beat the system or "win the game". I just enjoy the math if I had to guess a reason. when someone does express interest and want to talk to me it's usually because they think if i'm interested it's because i have some out-performing strategy and they want in. and then are largely disappointed when i'm like figure out your risk profile and build a well diversified allocation based on your tolerance. Check your risk profile again 5 years later and make changes if appropriate. not what they are expecting to hear.
    I have someone who wants to talk with me at Thanksgiving who sold a few investment properties and wants to talk about what they should do with this money. boy o boy are they going to probably be disappointed when i'm not like "well you see you need to load up on fartcoin and 3X Beyond Meat leveraged ETF's"
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    None of my friends like to talk about investing. From the little that they’ve said, it seems that they all use financial advisors. I’ve got no problem with that, but find investing very interesting and would enjoy talking about it.
  • Anyone talk investments with friends?
    IMO even bogleheads invest very different from each other surprisingly.
    Most of my friends don't care or pay attention to anything around investing or retirement.
    that said they know i pay attention and have asked me for information here or there. I have a few books that i recommend or lend out. most of the time even if they read them, it doesn't bring about much discussion. or we'll talk about it.
    whats funny is that I know pretty well about half a dozen financial advisors and even they don't like talking shop. The one friend who is largely a insurance salesperson moreso an advisor and I have pretty great conversations because he is genuinely curious and feels like he's been led astray somewhat by the industry he's in.
    The guys that taught me were older gentlemen. they loved talking this and its what got me to start paying attention.
    people want conversations around 10X'ing on some stock, nobody wants to talk about what trowe price, vanguard, or capital group is doing in the world of mutual funds and ETF's.
  • How Bad Is Finance’s Cockroach Problem? We Are About to Find Out.
    Jeffrey Gundlach joins the choir.
    DFL/TLDR
    “The health of the equity market in the United States, it’s among the least healthy in my entire career,” Gundlach said. “The market is incredibly speculative and speculative markets always go to insanely high levels. It happens every time.”
    /snip
    “The next big crisis in the financial markets is going to be private credit,” he said. “It has the same trappings as subprime mortgage repackaging had back in 2006.”
    /snip
    “There’s only two prices for private credit — 100 or zero,” Gundlach said. “It looks like it’s safe because you could sell it any day, but it’s not safe because the price at which you sell will be gapping lower day after day after day.”
    Take private loans to Renovo Home Partners. BlackRock Inc. just decided that the loans it made to the struggling home improvement company are worthless. About a month ago, it deemed the debt to be worth 100 cents on the dollar.
    Karine Jean-Pierre, could not be reached for comment before this post was submitted for your attention to this matter. Thank you.
  • ➩ ➩ ➩ 11/18:  MFO site: Balky / Errors / Unresponsive
    I've emailed David and Chip, and they're aware of the situation. A major issue is the fact that back in the beginning the fellow who did the adaptation of the Vanilla software to satisfy the requests of the MFO users made a number of modifications to the basic Vanilla programming, and while that may not be the cause of our problem it makes it very difficult to sort out exactly what might be going on now.
    We have to realize all of this takes a significant toll on the time resources of David and Chip, who do all of this without significant compensation. Viewing that, I suggested to David that perhaps we might explore the possibility of hiring a programmer who specializes in Vanilla to see if the existing platform can be debugged.
    If David chooses that option (and he hasn't responded to my suggestion, so I have no idea what he might think of it) we users will need to seriously consider coming up with some financial resources to cover that expense.
    That's all that I know at this time. Stand by.
    OJ
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    14 Nov '25:
    Can't talk for several days, but I can type.
    Scarlet Fu seems to have taken over as full-time host. It pleases me.
    So, Data drought due to shutdown. ORK! The data we have is stale, some private (vs. gummint) data is being published. Can we trust gummint data under the current regime, anyhow? When data is again collected and published by gummint, it will be slow, incremental. Some October stats will just be skipped, forgotten, left to be forgotten. THERE'S leadership! (Meanwhile Dept. Ag. is requiring all food stamp recipients to RE-APPLY. Because full-time workers who can't make a living need the help, and of course, we must make things as difficult as possible for them all. Just let the billionaires coast on their tax cuts, eh?)
    Odds of a Dec. rate cut are mixed, about 50/50 according to the Talking Heads. There has been a bunch of market volatility in the face of the lack of data. The information-picture will be cloudy for months to come. (Fickle decisions [and suggestions] by the Orange regime.)
    So, although lower rates are expected later into '26, it's a dicey situation for the several months to come, including the end of '25. Some FED Governors are sounding skeptical about rate cuts.
    Credit Caution. Orange 50-year mortgages? Well... Michael Burry was able to get some of the Banksters to CREATE an instrument by which he could short the housing market... For a 50-year (and mortgage portability) to work, there will need to be new financial infrastructure invented. (Watch out for THAT monstrosity!) One of the guests asserted that "only time" will fix the affordability issue. Not a very hands-on strategy.
    Belly of the curve seems a good place to be. And with credit jitters in Junk, it may very well be prudent to stick to I.G. bonds. Yet, Junk issuance has reached $1.5TRILLION in 2025, highest since 2020.
    Yes, we are in a K-shaped economy. I'm luckier than most, yet my portfolio is range bound in 2025. Stinky poopy.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-11-14/real-yield-11-14-2025-video
  • The K-Shaped Economy
     Key Points
    Wages for the top 25% of the U.S. workforce are rising by 4.6% annually,
    while the lowest quarter sees only 3.6% annual gains.
    Financial stress is increasing for lower-income households,
    with 29% living paycheck to paycheck and a record 6.7% of subprime auto loans delinquent.
    The economy’s growth is increasingly reliant on affluent households,
    as lower-income consumers face rising costs and reduced spending capacity.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/what-is-the-k-shaped-economy-and-why-is-it-a-problem/ar-AA1QpHuF
  • The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
    " He's unfit for office and has done terrible damage to the USA "
    He cheated, chiseled and corrupted his way through the commercial and real estate world, and even then went bankrupt six times. Those who voted for him expected a financial genius?