Regional Fed Bank President Reappointments by Federal Reserve
The significance of early reappointments of Fed Bank Presidents on 12/11/25, the day after the FOMC rate announcement on 12/10/25, was largely missed. But it's becoming clear in the hindsight.
There had been speculation that the routine February annual reappointments of the Regional Fed Bank Presidents by the Federal Reserve may be disrupted. Federal Reserve acted, in hindsight, preemptively by (i) early reappointments in December 2025 & (ii) the new reappointments are for 5-years (02/2026-02/2031), not annual. So, no drama this February, or the next February, or the next... Unless this is somehow overturned.
12 regional Federal Reserve Banks are private entities with their own boards but operate under the overall supervision of the Federal Reserve. That's what makes them lightly semi-public & makes FOMC semi-public: 7 Federal Governors nominated by the President & confirmed by the Senate, & 5/12 regional Fed Bank Presidents selected solely by their boards.
Facebook post LINK
LinkedIn post LINK
Federal Reserve press release https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20251211a.htm

I used to think this pretty reliable. For years there seemed to be a 1-2 day lag after major buys / sells in updating, but not a problem. Then one day last week my equity allocation increased by 10% virtually overnight for no apparent reason. Enough to cast doubt on this analyzer. Albeit, I had long suspected the lower equity reading was incorrect. Wonder about others' experiences if you typically use this feature?

"For those Scotch drinkers, has your purchases gone sky high due to tariffs?"
I think some local retailers have used tariffs as an excuse to jack up prices the past few months. Michigan sets a minimum price for every spirit which retail can't go below, but there's no cap on what they can charge. Sky's the limit for some.
Aberfeldy has gone up from $40 to $45. But hadn't purchased it in 3 years until recently. Still a reasonable price for a half-decent single malt. Chivas has a relatively new 15-year blended product that's interesting. But after 2 bottles this year I still can't decide if it's worth the $50 price tag. Have an unopened one in the cabinet. Dependable JWB has gone up slightly in recent years, but still can be had for around $40.
Not much of a beer drinker, but ISTM there's been a greater price increase in that product. BTW, wine has held very stable in recent years, although some retailers try to price gouge. Popular Mark West Pinot can be had for under $12 - about where I remember it being forever (not my normal choice).

Bourbon & Scotch are whiskies. But Bourbon (OP link) isn't Scotch (OP comment).
US exports of Bourbon have dried up due to counter-tariffs or behavior changes as in Canada.
Tariffs have indeed led to higher prices of Scotch imports. Don't know current prices because I quit drinking 5 years ago - not a drop since.

I asked Google AI, "How long have CLOs been around". It said about 40 years, but there have been MANY changes: CLO-initial, and CLO 1.0, 2.0 (it emerged after GFC that crushed CDOs), 3.0 (now).
CLO is a subclass of CDOs. CLOs have been battle-modified, but has their popular form CLO 3.0 been fire-tested.? The worst case 50% recovery is just an assumption. Could some underlying portfolios do worse in the next debt-crisis? As a made up example, there are various cuts of beef, but if the herd is found to have Mad Cow disease (BSE), do you still eat your Prime steak and risk vCJD?
I think it's OK to have some JAAA, PAAA, etc.
"AI Overview (Google Gemini)
CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) have been around since the late 1980s, created by banks to bundle leveraged loans, with the "modern" structure emerging in the mid-to-late 1990s to offer investors different risk/reward tranches, evolving through vintages (CLO 1.0, 2.0, 3.0) with regulatory changes, and proving resilient across multiple market cycles.
Key Milestones:
Late 1980s: The concept of bundling loans into securities (CLOs) began, mirroring earlier mortgage-backed structures to manage bank balance sheets.
Mid-to-Late 1990s: The first "modern" CLOs (CLO 1.0) were issued, packaging loans and some high-yield bonds, becoming the market standard.
2008 Financial Crisis: Issuance dried up, but CLO structures proved more resilient than CDOs, leading to tighter credit support and reinvestment rules (CLO 2.0).
2012 Onward: The US CLO market rebounded, with increased issuance and greater acceptance, leading to CLO 3.0 vintages focusing on reduced risk.
In essence, CLOs have a history spanning over three decades, adapting to financial shifts while offering diverse fixed-income opportunities. "

True, but those bond funds are still recovering from the 2022 disaster. Even a middling allocation fund like WBALX has shown twice the return of any core bond index fund when measured over the past three years running, and that spread widens dramatically the farther back you go.

VWIAX is always a very good partner to have when hard times fall but it has been stuck in the bottom quartile of "Moderately Conservative Allocation" (40/60) funds for the past two years. Still, it is on track for an 11% return this year, a modest gain but perhaps the beginning of a turnaround for the fund and only a couple of points shy of PRWCX. I expect improvement from both funds in 2026 and beyond, while the US market overall holds far less promise.

I reinvest all of my TRP Capital Appreciation dividends and CG distributions every year, a practice which is unique to this fund in my portfolio and which has made it far and away my largest single holding. I may discontinue doing that going forward, but I would take a hard look at the fund's performance overall and especially in down markets before I reduce my position. If Mr. Giroux can continue to provide double-digit returns in the years to come I suspect I will again be entirely satisfied with this fund.

I watched Wall Street Week last night.
As previously mentioned, it was a decent overview of the past 25 years.
The program didn't delve into much detail regarding specific events
(e.g., dot-com bubble, Great Financial Crisis, COVID shutdown).
I enjoyed the conversation with Ray Dalio.

I wasn't overly enthused, either.
FWIW saying, for a few months I've toyed with reducing my position to raise money to put into (mostly) income-producing equities and did NOT make my annual $10K contribution to it after annual distributions were paid, which breaks with ~15 years or so of tradition.

Just watched full video.
- Ed's been in the investment business 40 years. (I've been investing for longer - over 55 years - but won't hold that against him.)
- Ed draws many parallels between today's markets and the 1920s.
- Importantly, many have predicted a recession during this decade but none has occurred, nor does he see one coming.
- In the 1920s there were no recessions until the end of decade.
- His biggest regret is not having poured 100% of his money into the NASDAQ and shut his eyes decades ago.
- He sees the prolonged rapid rise in the equity markets as similar to the 1920s and highly stimulative. Should that upward momentum go into reverse, he concedes it could trigger a recession.
- He notes friends and relatives are taking expensive cruises and inviting him along. He declines because he gets seasick easily. However, these friends' stock portfolios are growing faster than they can spend them down.
- He sees even 4% on money market funds as stimulative. Savers are being rewarded much more now than 5-10 years ago when rates were near zero and then spend the extra money.
- He makes brief reference to the resumption of QE (bond buying) by the Fed, characterizing it as creating "instant money" out of thin air.
- He focuses on dramatic increases in productivity. In tech he remembers having to load data into computers by manually punching holes in cards.
- He sees the Fed as having the back of investors. They learned their lesson in '07-'09 and now know how to prevent such disasters.
- He mentions Trump's talk about sending out tariff rebate checks and appears to think such talk alone is stimulative; it's also emblematic of the degree to which the Administration will go to spur growth.
- Overall, Ed sounds like a raging bull. He "can see" the S&P 500 at 10,000 by decade end.
- However, his crystal ball appears clear at best only out to about a year. He often hedges by saying, "I'm assuming" ... I'm assuming ..."
Thanks for linking these interviews @bee / Mack attracts some excellent guests. (It should go without saying that I don't necessarily agree with Ed Yardeni.)

"How about leaving your cell phone at home so AI cannot track your physical window browsing?"
You could do that.
Or you could run a privacy-first mobile OS like GrapheneOS.¹
Or you could store your cell phone in a high-quality Faraday bag.²
Note: Cell phone tracking was an issue long before AI became popular several years ago.
¹ https://grapheneos.org/
² https://mosequipment.com/blogs/blog/myths-vs-facts-debunking-common-misconceptions-about-faraday-bags

This article from M* seems to paint a different picture. I don't see the article discriminating between retail and institutional investors.

Consistent with the past several months, flows favored taxable bonds, especially lower-risk areas within it, as well as international stocks over US equities. That said, US equity funds broke a six-month streak of outflows, tech sector funds posted their first outflows since April, and crypto assets lost some allure.

snip\

Taxable-bond funds continued to rake in assets in November, with 22 of 27 categories gathering assets amid a rate-cutting cycle. Their $51 billion of inflows marked a seventh straight month of inflows above $50 billion. In the past three years, total net assets in taxable-bond funds increased 38%.

snip\

US equity funds gathered a scant $3.4 billion in November, good enough to reverse a six-month streak of outflows.

It's inevitable, wall street has been at it for years getting their computers as close to wall street as possible. High frequency trading can depend on being microseconds closer to trading platforms. AI is a little scary, are we all going to be paying a different prices based on our past actions? Time to create a "miser" gmail account?

A decent overview and rewind of some events since 2000..........that Y2K year, eh? AND the here and now; and what is around the corner.
Video program, December 19, 2025, 56 minutes.

Right, good point on the style box. I have many portfolios built. Such as, "Cash/cash equivalents", "All Fixed Income", "Individual stocks' and a "Total Portfolio" that encompasses everything, except life insurance cash value (minimal), home equity, pension lump sum, and such miscellanea. This allows me to benchmark appropriately, mainly for individual equities and Roths, etc.
The "Total Portfolio" view is down to 1% for each: small value, core and growth. Mid is 6/9/5 for value/core/growth. 3 years ago, these were much higher weightings.
I am good with these allocations. As far as large caps go, I used to have a very large weighting towards "growth". That was pared back in the last 18 months, with more emphasis on value and core. Large core being the highest weighting now. Value and growth about equal.

Man, you cannot even give these people money! No matter, It amounts to small potatoes.
Also small potatoes, but something I've been doing for the past several years is paying by credit card. As the third party fees have come down (now 1.75% and 1.85%) if you pay by credit card (e.g. Fidelity 2% cash back) it's not hard to come out a french fry or two ahead.
https://www.irs.gov/payments/pay-your-taxes-by-debit-or-credit-card
This has the added bonus of getting a float for up to two months (if you make a payment early in your billing cycle). Note that payments are posted as of the day you make them - you can't schedule them for future dates.
If you have Chase Freedom Card, it's currently (for December) giving 5% cash back on Paypal transactions and you can use Paypal to make estimated payments. Though Chase limits the amount of cash back. Still, with 5% back (less 1.75% fee), we're past small potatoes, all the way up to russets.

Folks on SeekingAlpha are gaga over ET but they seem a bit too cowboyish for my tastes.
I'd rather have a boring stable MLP (EPD, MPLX) or pipeline (WMB) or one with decent growth and and a recent acquisition that supports existing NG infrastructures (WES) than one rushing to build new facilities from scratch. I've owned EPD for ages and WMB for a few years.

Thanks @msf. Great reminder to those of us who may have large capital gain in 2025. I have increased my withholding this year to meet close to 100% of the tax. Years ago we received large capital gains and we have to pay penalty due to underpaid amount. Since then we switched to index funds. Other tgan dividends, no more surprising capital gains.

Remember to avoid a penalty all you have to pay is 100% to 110% ( depending on MAGI of last years bill.