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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
    I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
    and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
    This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
    For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
    to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
    "So, it boils down to timing and trading."
    No, it really doesn't.
    Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
    It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
    suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
    and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
    Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Throughout history ruling classes have done whatever it takes to create an underclass equivalent to financial slavery, to perform labor that is ruinous to health and long life. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration is intent upon choking off any type of support for low-income Americans, which will eventually force them into the farm fields to replace the workers who are now being deported.
    If you had made this comment a year ago, I would probably have laughed at you. But nobody here is laughing now.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Throughout history ruling classes have done whatever it takes to create an underclass equivalent to financial slavery, to perform labor that is ruinous to health and long life. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration is intent upon choking off any type of support for low-income Americans, which will eventually force them into the farm fields to replace the workers who are now being deported.
    3/28- This, thanks to a lead by @Crash. Edited excerpts from a report by CNN:
    Florida debates lifting some child labor laws to fill jobs vacated by undocumented immigrants
    Florida has been working for years to crack down on employers that hire undocumented immigrants. But that presented a problem for businesses in the state that are desperate for workers to fill low-wage and often undesirable jobs.
    Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state legislature have a potential solution: children. The state’s legislature on Tuesday advanced a bill that would loosen child labor laws, allowing children as young as 14 years old to work overnight shifts. If the new law is passed, teenagers would be able to work overnight jobs on school days. They are currently prevented from working earlier than 6:30 am or later than 11 pm per state law.
    The bill passed through the Florida Senate’s Commerce and Tourism committee on Tuesday with five votes in favor of the loosened child labor restrictions and four against them. The bill will pass through two other relevant committees before being put to a vote with the full Florida Senate. DeSantis is supportive of the law and has been vocal of cracking down on immigration, echoing President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. However, economists have warned that could backfire, sparking further inflation and labor shortages.
    “Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally, when you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts, college students should be able to do this stuff,” DeSantis said last week at a panel discussion with border czar Tom Homan, as first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
    The state has been easing up on child labor protections for years. Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing home-schooled 16- and 17-year old teens to work any hour of the day.
    The state’s Republican-led legislature on Tuesday will debate the new law, which also includes a number of changes including eliminating working time restrictions on teenagers aged 14 and 15 if they are home-schooled and ending guaranteed meal breaks for 16 and 17 year olds.
    The number of child labor violations in Florida has nearly tripled in recent years, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
  • T Rowe Price ETFs in registration
    @WABAC,
    If my memory is right, I thought TRP ETFs are semi-transparent. Do you by any chance know if TCAL is fully transparent?
    TCAL volume today is 14K. I did not check its launch AUM.
    Edit: The newer TRP ETFs are transparent, while the older ones continue to be semi-transparent. You can find the list here (the ones notated with * are semi-transparent) -
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investment-research-tool.html#investment=Exchange+Traded+Fund&assetClass=u.s.+equity&category=All&shareClass=All&tabname=Performance
  • Removal of Reliable Economic Data
    Would it be possible that by removing advisory boards it might be easier to cook (even maybe overcook) the government books?
    You mean like redefining words to mean what the government wants them to mean (thank you Humpty Dumpty)?
    Reuters: US Commerce Secretary wants to remove government spending from GDP
    ECONOMISTS ARE WARY
    Economists cautioned against changes to the current national accounts structure as it would make GDP very volatile and difficult to get a clear view of the economy's health, creating more uncertainty.
    "I don't think the stock market, the financial markets would like that," said Sung Won Sohn, Finance and Economics professor at Loyola Marymount University.
    It would also be impossible to compare the U.S. economy's performance against its global peers.
    Looking at the private sector alone would not give the full picture on growth, Sohn said.
    "Economic growth over time would become a lot more volatile. The reason is, when the economy slows or, when we are in a recession, for example, the government spends a lot of money," he said.
    Removing government spending from GDP would distort the figure as government productivity is assumed to be zero whatever the production is in the computation of GDP.
    "It's imperative that we keep the current system because, we need to make comparisons, and it's important to know how well we are doing compared to a year ago, five years ago, 10 years ago, and we can learn from our mistakes," Sohn said.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    @FD1000- Hey there - you think that any of this might impact your financial situation?
    Edited for civility. OJ, good sir, please don't let your annoyance take over.
  • Tesla’s Europe sales drop nearly 45% amid row over Musk’s Trump links
    "Just trying to make the board a place where persons of all political persuasions feel comfortable sharing and benefitting from investment insights. Why would we discourage 50% of all investors from feeling welcome and participating here? Let’s keep financial content over here and political rants in OT. "
    I agree with @hank.
    Since this discussion forum focuses on investing, I avoid posting overtly political messages
    in the Fund Discussions and Other Investing categories. I'm not always successful in this regard...
    I use Off-Topic when I critique the Trump administration or start a thread which can become "hot" politically.
    It can be challenging to disentagle politics from financial impact in the current environment.
    Just my 2¢...
  • Tesla’s Europe sales drop nearly 45% amid row over Musk’s Trump links
    Thanks @gman57. I owe you one! All of us occassionally mix political and financial content together - self included. It’s a challenge not to. Let’s try the best we can to keep those separate to the degree possible.
    Why?
    - Both sides of the political spectrum invest and know a lot about investing. It is not in our best interest to discourage input from either side. The more contributions and perspectives on investing, the better for all of us.
    - MFO is funded by donations. Why discourage members of “the other side” from contributing? We all lose in that case,
    - The Off Topic board has long been utilized for moaning, groaning and political venting. And I can’t ever recall any MFO participant complaining about that. I for one feel fortunate that Off-Topic exists as a place to share things like books, films, travel, songs and - yes, the often unseemly going-ons in our nation’s capital.
    Thanks again.
    @gmam57 Re: Shorting TSLA - Yes that would be an appropriate investing topic. In fact, @rono has started such a thread.
    Shorting is fraught with risk. Losses can be infinite if the stock keeps rising. Even if you know you are right, at some point the costs of “covering” your shorts could drive you out of the market. I like to play the long-short game through funds. Even the experts find it a challenge (lackluster returns). But you won’t lose your house playing with them. In the L/S realm I own CPLSX and CPZ. Together they comprise near 20% of my portfolio. Both of those funds run by Calamos have indeed been shorting TSLA. Another one I used to own is NLSAX. Also a decent fund. Why Shorting Stocks is Risky
    @gman57 - Here is the portion of your previous post (later deleted by you) which I objected to: ”Yes, I'm going to a takedown Tesla event 3/29. Sooner or later we each are going to have to stand up. I'm going to do it before it gets so bad it's no longer effective. Are you going to wait until we attack Greenland?”
  • Tesla’s Europe sales drop nearly 45% amid row over Musk’s Trump links
    @gman57
    Your post belongs in Off Topic. I don’t think political action planning belongs in the investing section. Of course you are free to travel to whatever events you want and to voice those opinions.
    @Old_Joe’s linked article and comments relate to TSLA from a financial standpoint. It’s been an incredibly strong performer for many years. As I noted above, if you own any growth funds or the S&P 500 you almost certainly own TSLA stock yourself.
    Not trying to be the “cop on the beat”. Just trying to make the board a place where persons of all political persuasions feel comfortable sharing and benefitting from investment insights. Why would we discourage 50% of all investors from feeling welcome and participating here? Let’s keep financial content over here and political rants in OT. Thank you.
  • Crypto Stablecoin USD1 Launch
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250325773694/en/World-Liberty-Financial-Plans-to-Launch-USD1-the-Institutional-Ready-Stablecoin
    "WLFI’s USD1 will be 100% backed by short-term US government treasuries, US dollar deposits, and other cash equivalents. Initially, USD1 tokens will be minted on the Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Smart Chain (BSC) blockchains, with plans to expand to other protocols in the future. Each token is intended to maintain a value of $1 USD, fully backed by a reserve portfolio audited regularly by a third-party accounting firm...USD1 reserves will be custodied by BitGo"
  • WealthTrack Show
    March 22nd Episode:
    Trump tariffs are upending financial markets, causing influential economist and strategist Ed Yardeni to turn from bullish to cautious.
    https://youtu.be/9QLvhdYJ9-Y
  • Fidelity, Schwab Block Orders of BlackRock and Texas Capital ETFs

    Per BBG:
    Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp. are prohibiting clients from investing in money-market ETFs on their trading platforms, an unusual move for the financial powerhouses who typically permit easy access to funds that already trade on an exchange.
    The two firms are blocking purchases of three exchange-traded funds offered by BlackRock Inc. and Texas Capital, the first to track money—market securities such as Treasury bills and other government-backed debt in an ETF structure.
    The new funds serve as a direct challenge to mutual-fund providers, who have long been big, established players in money-market products. Fidelity and Schwab alone manage trillions of dollars in money-market assets, and this month, Schwab filed plans to launch its own government money-market ETF.
    A Schwab spokesperson said its decision is consistent with the firm’s “long-standing approach” of only making available Schwab affiliate money-market mutual funds, while a Fidelity spokesperson said this is an extension of the company’s policy to “generally restrict” third-party money-market mutual funds.
    Yet, the move stands out because trading platforms like Schwab and Fidelity typically don’t restrict exchange-traded funds, even if those funds are in competition with existing in-house offerings.

    In Schwab's case, they need to drive folks into their MMFs because even there they profit from customers' stored cash with those more expensive MMFs. Fido's rationale, I can't tell -- I thought they had more customer-friendly cash management policies/offerings.
    I'll stick with SGOV or equivalents at Schwab.
  • EXTREMELY late TRP tax documents just arrived, 21st March.
    I was recently notified by USPS Informed Delivery that a letter from TRP will be delivered. ... I did not receive the said letter... Two days later my neighbor brought over the TRP letter.
    ...
    I would trust USPS over TRP for service reliability.
    Let me see if I've got this right. USPS failed to deliver a letter to you. If not for the good graces of a neighbor, you never would have known what happened to the letter, let alone recovered it. And you are willing to place any measure of trust in the USPS?
    I've watched the USPS lose certified letters that I've sent; leave bags of mail destined for various addresses in the middle of our lobby for hours (as though we were some sort of substation); lose packages that it claimed it delivered to me.
    Whatever happened to the 31st JANUARY deadline???
    Until this year [2009], the deadline for sending Form 1099-B, Proceeds From Broker and Barter Exchange Transactions, was Jan. 31, the same as for Form W-2 and other information reporting forms. Congress extended the deadline to Feb. 15 in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which also will require brokers to report the cost basis of securities sold, effective in phases starting in 2011.
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2009/feb/late1099bmailings/
    More generally, IRS deadlines (unless the financial institution requests an extension) are here:
    https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1099gi#en_US_2025_publink1000287056
    Until an institution has the information for an entire account, it will hold off on sending what would be an incomplete combined 1099. For various reasons, some funds are unable to provide complete information quickly and routinely request extensions. For example, in the past PRSVX has distributed some unrecaptured 1250 gains (box 2b). I suspect that it is because of the possibility of these distributions that TRP delays this fund's tax mailings.
    Here's TRP's complete mailing schedule (for investments held directly in mutual fund accounts)
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/preparation/tax-mailing-schedule.html
    This year, Fidelity delayed sending me a combined 1099 because it was waiting on information from a money market fund, more specifically a Fidelity MMF!
  • ECB’s Lane Backs Digital Euro to Avoid Rising Stablecoin Risks
    A growing part of me is witnessing not just day-to-day drama, but sensing potential seismic shifts in the Western World order on things like defense and finance. Moving away from a USD-oriented global payment system may become a thing at some point, maybe? I certainly appreciate the EU's concerns here -- and as I recall, China, India, et.al. were exploring/developing a regional currency to diversify some away from the USD several years ago. (We're already seeing the EU ramp up its defense expenditures, and Canada leapfrogging the US in obtaining bleeding edge systems.)
    Are we heading toward some kind of inflection point and global realignment in the coming years?
    Per BBG....
    Europe needs a digital currency to safeguard against threats from new forms of money like stablecoins, and reduce reliance on US payments firms amid heightened political tensions, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said.
    A digital euro would “limit the likelihood of foreign-currency stablecoins gaining a foothold as a medium of exchange in the euro area,” Lane told a conference in Cork, Ireland. “The digital euro is not just about making sure our monetary system adapts to the digital age. It is about ensuring that Europe controls its monetary and financial destiny, against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical fragmentation.”
    European interest in the stablecoin market, which is overwhelmingly tied to the dollar, is “increasing rapidly,” Lane said Thursday. He also highlighted the current dependence on US payment-card providers Visa and Mastercard, as well as technology companies including PayPal, Apple and Google.
    < - >
    Earlier on Thursday, President Christine Lagarde told lawmakers in Brussels that the continent must accelerate progress on a retail and a wholesale digital euro, which would bolster sovereignty and lower vulnerabilities.
    President Donald Trump is alarming European politicians not only with his tariff threats and efforts to strike a peace deal over Ukraine but also by promoting dollar-backed stablecoins worldwide as part of a broader crypto strategy.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added to NRDCX and invested the smallest amount in an individual corporate bond
    - cusip # 37046AFR1 General Motors Financial Corp
    - 4.85% yield (BBB)
    - 2-yr
    - first call 3/26
    I have been investing in treasuries and agency bonds. This was a very small investment in an individual corporate.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @PRESSmUP- What an interesting question. Not my best knowledge patch, but I'd think that maybe some state's finances will come under significant pressure due to the removal of federal support, especially if there are significant cuts in Medicare payments.
    Indirectly some cities may be in the line of fire also: for instance, Musk/Trump have said that they intend to shut down three major federal buildings in SF, fire or transfer all of those workers, and sell the properties. If that comes to pass, that will cause a significant deterioration in all business activity associated with those federal operations, with resulting tax loss to the city.
    Under those "scenarios" there would be financial damage to the cities and states, but it would likely not be immediate, but rather increase over a period of time.
    Others here at MFO will most likely have much better ideas on this.
  • Mirova Global Green Bond Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/770540/000119312525053920/d916411d497.htm
    497 1 d916411d497.htm NATIXIS FUNDS TRUST I
    Supplement dated March 13, 2025 to the Mirova Global Green Bond Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2024, as may be revised or supplemented from time to time.
    Mirova Global Green Bond Fund
    On March 13, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Natixis Funds Trust I (the “Trust”), on behalf of the Mirova Global Green Bond Fund (the “Fund”), upon the recommendation of the Fund’s adviser, Mirova US LLC, approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Fund pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about June 25, 2025 (“Liquidation Date”). Any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed on that date.
    Effective March 13, 2025, purchases made by existing shareholders will not be subject to front-end sales charges. No commission payments will be made to intermediaries on purchases effective this date. In addition, redemptions made by existing shareholders will not be subject to any sales charges, including contingent deferred sales charges. The proceeds from any such redemption will be the net asset value of the Fund’s shares after expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or otherwise provided for. Lastly, the Fund may make one or more distributions of income and/or net capital gains on or prior to the Liquidation Date in order to eliminate Fund-level taxes.
    Effective March 13, 2025, Natixis Distribution will no longer accept investments in the Fund from new investors (subject to intermediary discretion). Effective June 11, 2025, Natixis Distribution will no longer accept additional investments in the Fund from current shareholders of the Fund, including additional investments through automatic or systematic investment plans.
    On or before the Liquidation Date, the Fund’s affairs shall be wound up and its securities and other assets shall be sold for cash or cash equivalents. The Fund shall have the authority to engage in such transactions as may be appropriate to its dissolution, winding up, liquidation, and termination. In connection with the liquidation, the Fund may deviate from its investment strategies disclosed in its Prospectus and intends to invest all of the Fund assets in short-term cash equivalent securities starting in mid-June, to facilitate the payment of distributions, if required, and an orderly liquidation on or about June 25, 2025. For federal income tax purposes, the automatic redemption on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated like other redemptions of shares and may result in a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes. If Fund shares are capital assets in the hands of a shareholder, such gain or loss, if any, generally will be taxed as short- or long-term capital gain or loss depending on how long the shareholder held the shares. 
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth under “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their shares, subject to investment minimums and other restrictions on exchanges as described under “Exchanging or Converting Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. For federal income tax purposes, an exchange of the Fund’s shares for shares of another Natixis Fund is generally treated as a sale on which a gain or loss may be recognized. Each shareholder should consult with his or her tax adviser for more information on his or her own situation.
    Absent an instruction to the contrary prior to the Liquidation Date, for shares of the Fund held in custodial accounts within an IRA, Roth IRA or plans such as SEP, SIMPLE, SARSEP or 403(b), or in certain other accounts, Natixis Distribution, LLC (“Natixis Distribution”) will exchange any shares remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date for shares of the Loomis Sayles Limited Term Government and Agency Fund at net asset value. Please refer to your plan documents or contact your plan administrator, plan sponsor, or other financial intermediary that maintains your account to determine whether the preceding sentence applies to you.
  • NOAA Said to Be Planning to Shrink Staff by 20 Percent
    Well Edmond, why don't you just explain to us exactly why accurate weather forecasts have no investing connection to agricultural or transportation or aviation or insurance or construction or emergency financial operations.
    Ya see, I didn't start the thread, I am simply reacting to it, and engage in a discussion which you began, presumably because it was relevant to, oh, investing...
    But maybe its not relevant at all?