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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PWC China Operations
    "China suspended the operations of PricewaterhouseCoopers for six months and imposed a record penalty over lapses in its auditing of China Evergrande Group. The accounting firm was fined 441 million yuan ($62 million) for its work on Evergrande’s inflated financial reports from 2018 to 2020. Regulators also ordered the closure of PwC’s branch in Guangzhou. PwC has been under scrutiny since China launched one of the biggest investigations of financial fraud in history. Authorities have said developer Evergrande’s main onshore unit Hengda overstated its revenue by 564 billion yuan in the two years through 2020. PwC “turned a blind eye” to Evergrande’s fraud, securities regulators said."
    I want to know how much PWC paid to CCP to get away with a meagre $62M fine. That is peanuts.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    Some 96 percent of union members voted in favor of the strike, rejecting a proposal that would have boosted pay and benefits even as it fell short of other demands.
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post.
    SEATTLE — Boeing workers picketed outside the company’s plants in Washington state early Friday morning after voting overwhelmingly to strike. Tens of thousands of machinists voted Thursday to reject a proposed deal between the company and the union that would have significantly boosted pay and benefits even as it fell short of other union demands.
    Some 96 percent of members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 voted in favor of the strike — far more than the two-thirds needed to launch the work stoppage.
    The walkout is a stinging rebuke for Boeing and could represent the most disrupting challenge yet for a company that has spent much of this year in damage control as it careened from crisis to crisis.
    The strike risks derailing the aerospace giant’s recovery from ongoing financial and safety challenges and could cost the cash-strapped company an estimated $1 billion per week, according to analysts. The union plays a key role in assembling some of the company’s best-selling aircraft.
    The most direct impact is on Boeing’s assembly plants in Washington, especially in Everett and Renton. An extended work stoppage could also impact Boeing suppliers and possibly shrink its share of the aerospace market.
    Machinists in Seattle said the strike was long coming: “We just want to be treated right and they’re not doing it,” said mechanic Charles Fromong, who has worked for Boeing for more than 37 years. “So I guess we’re going to get it done.”
    Boeing said early Friday that it would return to the bargaining table: “The message was clear that the tentative agreement we reached with IAM leadership was not acceptable to the members,” the company said in a statement. “We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”
    After a string of tense, marathon negotiating sessions over the last several weeks, the IAM and Boeing announced Sunday that they had reached a tentative four-year agreement, including a 25 percent pay increase over four years and enhanced health and retirement benefits. Also significant: If workers had voted to accept the deal before the current contract, Boeing committed to building its next new aircraft in Washington state, a key union demand. Both sides and investors had cheered the deal.
    “Four years is not enough to make up for the last 16,” Boeing worker Roger Ligrano said before he voted. He said he was voting to strike, in part, to give union members more time to understand a deal.
    Harold Ruffalo, who has worked for Boeing for 28 years, said after the vote results were announced that too much corporate greed is impacting the company, and workers need more money to live as inflation hits paychecks.
    The Biden administration was monitoring the situation; acting Labor Secretary Julie Su has been in contact with both sides.
    Leading up to the strike deadline, analysts said they were worried about how long a strike would last. They said that many workers have not forgotten previous rounds of negotiations in which Boeing pushed for concessions — including the end of the traditional pension program — to keep aircraft production in Washington state.
    Michael Bruno, Aviation Week Network’s executive editor for business, said in previous rounds of negotiations Boeing threatened to move airplane production to other states to extract concessions from the union, which soured relations.
    The last time IAM members struck was in 2008, a 57-day day walkout that Moody’s estimated cost Boeing about $1.5 billion a month. Boeing reopened negotiations on that contract twice, in 2011 and in 2013, and won significant concessions from workers.
  • WFC Wells... big surprise.
    Sept. 12, 2024:
    "Citi analyst Keith Horowitz calls Wells Fargo’s formal agreement with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency related to deficiencies concerning its financial crimes risk management as a “step back.” However, this is not a consent order and does not include a monetary civil penalty, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As a result, the firm does not expect a meaningful change to the expense outlook and it notes Wells reiterated its outlook as recently as this week. The stock traded down 4% on the news, which “seems strong” but reflects the overhang from existing consent orders, contends Citi. It keeps a Neutral rating on the shares with a $63 price target."
    ****************
    Sept. 13, 2024:
    "JPMorgan says that in a “significant new negative development” for Wells Fargo, the bank’s anti-money laundering issue is back with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announcing an enforcement agreement for anti-money laundering and financial crimes “on an enterprise-wide basis, not just a particular business area.” The news is very surprising given that Wells had resolved a consent order for anti-money laundering in January 2021 after many years of work and expense, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan says fixing this will likely add to operating expenses and much of the expense will likely be ongoing. It will also slow the bank’s growth and expansion, the firm contends. JPMorgan keeps a Neutral rating on Wells Fargo."
    Source: The Fly.
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    Not really
    I find a lot of it informative
    Perhaps I don’t read enough financial journalism
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    "M only regret about my early financial decisions is not having our retirement accounts 100 % inequities when I was in my 30s and 40s. But I wanted to sleep at night!"
    I also was not 100% invested in equities during my 30s and 40s.
    Taking risk tolerance into consideration, it can be beneficial to construct
    a portfolio that an investor is comfortable with to decrease anxiety.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    In general, models like these are helpful to me, but I rarely do exactly what they recommend
    It is difficult I have found to accurately predict what your spending will be in retirement. I ran multiple [plans over the years but the reality in retirement has proven most of them were too high, especially when you look at just the necessities, ie food utilities rent and insurance
    One of the reasons we have adequate savings in retirement is we were rather frugal when we were working. We splured only on the kid's education which paid of. Small house, cheap cars camping vacations mean we don't have to worry about running out of money.
    M only regret about my early financial decisions is not having our retirement accounts 100 % inequities when I was in my 30s and 40s. But I wanted to sleep at night!
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    "Investors have been conditioned for decades to believe they can withdraw only 4% a year
    through a theoretical 30-year retirement, adjusted for inflation."

    "But several studies and retirement experts now view 4% as too conservative and inflexible.
    J.P. Morgan, in a recent report, recommended about 5%.
    David Blanchett, who has a doctorate in personal financial planning and has studied retirement withdrawal rates for years, says 5% 'is a much better starting place, given today’s economic reality and people’s flexibility.'”

    "The inventor of the 4% rule agrees.
    Retired financial planner Bill Bengen tells Barron’s he is revising his benchmark in an upcoming book,
    and that a rate 'very close to 5%' may be warranted."

    This article (link below) places too much emphasis on bucket strategies.
    While a formal bucket strategy can be beneficial for certain investors, it is not essential.
    The "4% rule" is not an ironclad rule - it's only a decent starting point for retirement withdrawal rates.
    1) What are your thoughts regarding retirement withdrawal rates of ~5% for the general population?
    2) Which withdrawal strategy do you utilize and why:
    a) fixed real withdrawal amount (FRWA); b) FRWA which skips inflation adjustment after annual portfolio loss;
    c) RMD method using IRS Life Expectancy Tables; d) "guardrails" plan developed by Guyton and Klinger;
    e) other strategy.
    Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
  • WealthTrack Show
    Personal finance master Jonathan Clements is turning his recent terminal cancer diagnosis into an important teaching opportunity on money and life.


    Also,
    Previous Clements interview:
  • WealthTrack Show
    Personal finance master Jonathan Clements is turning his recent terminal cancer diagnosis into an important teaching opportunity on money and life.


    Also,
    Previous Clements interview:
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    I’m tempted to delete all my posts in this thread. Never did I imagine that my attempt to mock today’s public stock market bullishness (which is accurately portrayed in the piece) by noting humorously that the writer describing said bullishness was only 8 when the NASDAQ began a 78% nose-dive and 16 during 2008’s market nadir would somehow be interpreted as disparaging of the writer or of youthful writers and investors. It was a literary gambit on my part which I fear has been greatly misunderstood. Certainly some young people can write and invest well. Conversely, age is no guarantee of intelligence or investment wisdom.
    I love reading the WSJ and willingly pay to read it along with several other financial publications to which I subscribe. Certainly, the fact that Gunjan Banerji’s work meets the Journal’s high standards is testament enough to her journalistic achievement. There never was any intent on my part to question her judgement, character, intelligence, balance or other. I’m especially saddened if anyone took my post as an unkind affront to a friend they know personally or an online personality they have close contact with. It wasn’t meant that way.
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    Thanks for sharing your perspective @catch22. Possibly relevant - the front page of today’s print edition of the WSJ features a story on aging.
    ”The Crushing Financial Burden of Aging at Home” - by Clare Ansberry and Anne Tergesen
    It’s a sobering read detailing the story of seemingly hefty life savings wiped out in a few months, the difficulty of finding trustworthy trained in-home care workers, the burdens faced by care-giving relatives.
    I won’t try to link it. But if you have access to today’s WSJ, highly recommend.
  • Duke premier notes
    Any fresh thoughts re investing a few bucks here?
    A number of companies package up variable rate demand notes into bank account-like accounts. Features may vary slightly (e.g. min required, check writing ability, min transaction amount) but the underlying investments are similar as are the way these accounts work.
    Companies that offer these accounts seem to be rated BBB or A and are using these accounts as a relatively cheap way to get cash. Some BBBs: Duke, Dominion, GM, and Ford. Some As: Toyota, Mercedes-Benz (only accredited investors), and Caterpillar
    A couple of webpages from 2021 on these types of investments:
    MyMoneyBlog: https://www.mymoneyblog.com/big-list-of-car-demand-notes-non-fdic.html
    Bogleheads thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=340088
    And a 2021 WSJ article cited in the Bogleheads thread (subscription or library card required):
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/car-maker-notes-attract-investors-seeking-short-term-yield-11605781801
    Called "variable denomination floating rate demand notes," the securities are basically unsecured bonds, paid by the company's cash from operations. There is no public market and investors can typically withdraw their money at will. Rates can be changed at any time by the company, which can call the securities at its discretion.
    What's the risk?
    For my money (pun intended), I'd rather go with a Treasury MMF yielding around 5.1%; since it's state tax exempt that's not much different from 5.5% fully taxable and a whole lot safer.
    https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf
    If I had to go with a single issuer, I'd look at the A rated companies.
    A nuclear accident that bankrupts the company?
    Not likely.
    [The] Price-Anderson [Act has since 1957 freed] nuclear plant operators and all firms involved in nuclear construction and maintenance of any liability for offsite accident damage. The only chance for additional compensation lies in the act’s declaration that if accident damages exceed the legal limit “Congress will thoroughly review the particular incident” and will “take whatever action is determined to be necessary” to provide full compensation to the public. In short, a Fukushima-level accident would toss the costs of compensation and cleanup unto the lap of Congress.
    https://thebulletin.org/2020/02/the-us-government-insurance-scheme-for-nuclear-power-plant-accidents-no-longer-makes-sense/
    This was recently extended (for another 40 years) and expanded with little publicity. It's a sizeable and relatively unknown industry subsidy.
    What was publicized were billions of dollars allocated in the Inflation Reduction Act for maintaining existing nuclear plants and building new ones.
    https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/inflation-reduction-act-keeps-momentum-building-nuclear-power
  • Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
    Thanks @Observant1 for the “probing” article on Americans’ current love affair with stocks. In reading I became curious about the author. From the linked article: “The typical salary for a journalist in the United States is $49,887 per year”. Had no idea they were so underpaid.
    Gunjan Banerji was born in 1992. For some perspective …. That year Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week was completing its 22nd season on PBS. 5 years had passed since the global stock market “flash crash” of ‘87. She would have been 6 or 7 when the tech sector sizzled and 8 when the bubble burst in 2000. (Maybe some nervous playground banter?) She would have been 16 in 2008 during the depths of “the great financial crisis” (and subsequent 50%+ drop in the S&P). No doubt, this great unwinding of stock market mania was discussed / analyzed to extent in her high school business / social studies classes during these teen-age formative years.
  • RIP Bob Brinker (82)
    Many listened to his radio shows or subscribed to his newsletter "Marketimer" - despite its name, it didn't promote active timing. His approach was simple and steady investing and he focused on financial freedom. He rarely made big calls, but when he did, those moved the markets. I think that we was aware of this, so he made/published big calls rarely.
    From X/Twitter LINK,
    https://tipswatch.com/2024/09/04/remembering-bob-brinker-and-his-life-changing-advice/
  • Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances
    BF,
    No pension or any other safety net here.
    As to planning tools, the only one I use is the M* portfolio which I started using about 7 years ago when I realized that I had way more cash than I thought I had which meant I was unrealistically risk shy.
    I have only spent on what I needed and had worked when work was available. All the good things that happened to me are not because I planned any of them. My success rate of my long term planning is near zero if not zero. I do not plan for financial outcomes, and hence, I do not need to use any tools. May be I fall under your category of "wing it as man plans and God laughs."
  • 31 Years of Stock Market Returns
    Hi@Anna
    Yes, INDEED !!! 8,760 hours, one after the other.....
    Our house is completely and fully acknowledged that we are where we should be with financial comfort; from becoming informed investors and students of sound monetary practices starting in the late 1970's, and mental reasoning; which should include a large amount of prudence; or call it 'common sense'.
  • “Other” in Fido’s analytics tool?
    With 9% of my holdings being reported as “other,” I’m curious what all that includes.

    Just guessing
    :
    - Precious metals, real estate / timberland / farmland?
    - Physical infrastructure - like buildings, toll roads, railroads, communications satellites?
    - Positions in non-dollar denominated currencies thru the FX markets?
    - Options to buy something?
    Other ideas?
    I think it’s significant in assessing risk because if these “other” assets are as risky (or riskier) than equities, than your portfolio might contain substantially more risk tied to the broader financial markets than a lower “equity” number might lead you to believe.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    BaluBalu said
    "I have not been following this thread well. So, pardon my enquiry. Why are you guys following the price ticks of this thing? Is there are catalyst, such as vesting, dilution, etc., tied to a price level? "
    many reasons those fascinated with the financial sector are following djt.
    the history of scams in financial markets is endless, but never has such a influential and powerful politician continuously checked every box known to be a marker or EVIDENCE of a market scam.
    in summary, this is very different from any other meme event in history, and a substantial number of retail investors are still HOLDING and BUYING djt.
    am not going to recap the whole redflag history here of the controlling shareholder and the step-by-mistep evolution of djt.
    the complexity of the the lockup and lawsuits pose an amazing real life case of game theory, for those more interested in just the mathematics.
    i would end with the notion that out of those who had invested among the entire history of financial scams, one will find the label 'rube' quite apt. newsflash, many on the internet use much worse terminology daily, including the djt namesake.
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/10/politics/pence-book-excerpt-trump-power/index.html
  • Market Broadening?
    ”I wonder where the hell they find these financial "journalists". I guess the same place they find the so-called "analysts" who simply follow each other around staying close to consensus "thinking". Maybe they recruit in middle schools!
    (Comment by “Mr. Skin” / Bill Fleckenstein’s Daily Market Rap - 8/29/24 / subscription required)
    My own thought is to apply a different twist to Marie-Antoinette’s famous “Let them eat cake”. In good times the media and their porn-star analysts deliver to the adoring masses that possessing the outer appearance of cake. Later there may occur a nasty case of indigestion.
  • SEC drops swing pricing proposal for mutual funds
    Passive ETFs require daily holding disclosures
    A common conception but the rule is actually the opposite. Based on the premise that investors already have a very good if not exact idea of what's in a fund that passively tracks an index, disclosure of such a fund's daily holdings is generally not required.
    From NASDAQ, under passive ETF listing requirements is this requirement, applicable only to leveraged ETFs. "Regular" passive ETFs need not comply.
    Passive ETFs which seek a return based upon a multiple (positive or inverse) of the underlying index performance, must disclose the following information regarding the portfolio on their website daily:
    • The identity and number of shares held of each specific equity security
    • The identity and amount held for each specific fixed income security
    • The specific types of financial instruments and characteristics of such financial instruments
    • Cash equivalents and the amount of cash held in the portfolio
    https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/ETP_Listing_Guide.pdf
    It's true that the vast majority of passively managed non-leveraged ETFs disclose portfolios daily. Vanguard is the notorious exception that proves the rule.
    While it discloses daily the holdings of its standalone ETFs, it discloses only monthly holdings of those ETFs that are share classes of its OEFs. For example, VYM (a share class of VHYAX) currently shows holdings as of July 31.
    Each Vanguard fund relying on Rule 6c-11 under the 1940 Act (e.g., standalone ETFs) generally will seek to disclose complete portfolio holdings, including other investment positions, at the beginning of each business day. These portfolio holdings, including other investment positions, will be disclosed online at vanguard.com. ... Each Vanguard index fund, other than those Vanguard index funds relying on Rule 6c-11 under the 1940 Act (e.g., standalone ETFs), generally will seek to disclose the fund’s complete portfolio holdings as of the end of the most recent month online at vanguard.com, 15 calendar days after the end of the month.
    Vanguard SAI supplement, July 19, 2024