Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Concerning SPY and concentration in top 5 holdings
    correction indicator :)
    For many years my father had an investment timing / trend analysis service whose most beautiful feature was his individual (per client) hand-drawn and -colored moving averages serving as graphics for his nicely written newsletter. That is some swing in the WSJ poll.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @LewisBraham- Sorry, but I have to disagree on this one- the Examiner article refers to an individual as I described above in reply to Anna: an ordinary person who has fallen on really bad times. There are in fact a number of organizations here in SF who do really excellent work in helping out in those types of situations, and my wife and I have substantially supported them for many years.
    To repeat- the majority though, at least here in SF, are druggies, thieves and crazies who respond to nothing other than their next high. A number of the hotels described in the Examiner article were substantially trashed during the pandemic temporary housing program- something that the Examiner chose not to report.
    A short excerpt from a pertinent report in the San Francisco Chronicle:

    Hotels are seeking millions from S.F. for damage when they were homeless shelters.
    Hotel Union Square’s cleanup bill was steep — $5.6 million to repair rampant smoke damage, broken light fixtures, mold and other problems.
    As city supervisors consider shelling out millions to settle the dispute over damages at one of San Francisco’s hotel homeless shelters, taxpayers could be on the hook for millions more to settle similar claims from other hotels that participated in the program.
    In September 2021, the owners of Hotel Union Square filed a claim with the city, alleging unhoused residents who the city had placed there had caused $5.6 million in damages — and cost the Dallas-based hotel operator hundreds of thousands more in lost rent.
    City officials created the Hotel Program in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and used it to house more than 3,700 high-risk residents in 25 hotels. With federal and state funding drying up, the city has gradually closed most of the hotels.
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    Old_Joe said , "For a couple of years during the pandemic SF leased a number of smaller hotels- decent buildings- to use as temporary housing for a number of the street people. When the leases were up, the hotels were found to have been largely trashed. Now the taxpayers are on the hook to fix that, too."
    I don't doubt that one bit !!
    @yogibearbull : Are you suggesting the city use TIF to convert the hotels to living quarters ?
    Heck, hire a doorman & desk clerk & let the homeless in !
    Just joking, Derf
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    Tax-incremental-financing (TIFs) only waves future incremental tax revenues for a while (20-30 years) and there is no immediate money commitment from the local government. So, the current "low" taxes on that property continue now, and for the future, until the TIF period expires (and taxes jump to the new property assessment level). Real cost to the local government is higher level of city services it has to provide on the new property if it comes to fruition (many such projects are delayed or fall through, and then the local government doesn't lose anything except face).
    If in addition, the local government issues bonds (munis), to be supported by the future property revenues, then it on the hook to the extent spelled out in the bond issue. Those holding munis know these as AMT munis.
    However, there is multiplier effect with the TIFs because private funding becomes more easily available, and some federal funding can also be tapped.
    I think TIFs are great.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_increment_financing
  • The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings
    @Derf- For a couple of years during the pandemic SF leased a number of smaller hotels- decent buildings- to use as temporary housing for a number of the street people. When the leases were up, the hotels were found to have been largely trashed. Now the taxpayers are on the hook to fix that, too.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    DT: Good on ya. Can't tie up my $$$ for very long like that. Of course, I'm investing, and that's long-term. What you're doing with CDs, I'n doing with bond OEFs.
    Crash, I understand. I am retired and focused on preserving principal, while making a decent TR with CD interest payments. After I retired, I focused on making 4 to 6% TR, but CDs paid nothing, and so I chose to focus on low risk bond oefs. Loved those years with PIMIX from which I collected monthly income payments that were very predictable and dependable. I had several other bond oefs that I did well with--SEMMX, VCFIX, NVHAX, etc. When the FEDs got serious about raising interest rates, bond oefs got less appealing to me, but CDs became attractive alternatives. I have no idea how long I can ride the CD gravy train, but for now, I will enjoy the stress free 5% returns during my "golden years". I keep watching Floating Rate Bank Loan funds, which I played with for a few years, and keep wondering when they will start benefiting from the rising interest rate period.
  • Pimco Secular Outlook Webcast June 7
    Will we be in another decade where a good manager, deploying a multi-sector bond approach, provides equity like returns from a collection of bonds... with a lot less volatility?
    That sounds like their contention, for five years anyway. (And another strong run for HY munis sounds good to me.)
  • Income vs Total Return
    @larryB, you can play with that PV Run template to test other possibilities. Free PV database goes to 1985, so 38 years is the max that you can go back with this type of PV analysis (Paid PV may have longer database). PV also defaults the the shortest common period, so you have to use funds that have all existed for 38+ years (Paid PV will use similar funds to fill the time gaps).
    At some future time, I may add examples of some conservative- (VFINX) and moderate- (VWELX, PRWCX) allocation funds.
    Let us see how this thread develops. I don't want to spend lot of time cranking out numbers if there isn't much interest.
  • Income vs Total Return
    Income vs Total Return
    Some want reliable monthly income; others are fine with total return (TR) growth and selling as needed (that may be easier said than done). The TR formula shows that one cannot have high income and high growth:
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Dividend_growth + %Change_in_P/D
    For very long-term, the last term has a small contribution, so if dropped, we get the Gordon Equation approximation for multiple years (so, don’t create examples of annual exceptions):
    %TR = %Dividend_yield + %Dividend_growth
    I have seen this debate about income vs TR go on and on for years. My suggestion is for income-oriented posters to assume a fixed monthly/annual withdrawal rate, e.g. 5% annualized (not adjusted for COLA), and then compare the terminal balances using, say, Portfolio Visualizer (PV). In the example below, I will use utilities XLU, CEF PDI, REITs VNQ and VFIAX/SP500; the data will go back to 6/1/12 due to late-05/2012 inception for PDI; also, PV allows only 3 portfolios plus 1 benchmark at a time.
    PV RUN
    All 5% fixed withdrawal programs were successful in that the terminal values > initial values. The best for terminal values were, in order, SP500 (highest), PDI, XLU, VNQ (lowest).
    Intrinsic portfolio income varied, but the withdrawals were full covered by PDI, only sometimes by XLU and VNQ; so often, the withdrawals consisted of intrinsic income plus some principal.
    There were 3 equity funds and 1 leveraged CEF and their volatilities were high. The 3-yr volatility order was VNQ (highest), XLU, SP500, PDI (lowest).
    Max drawdowns were for PDI (highest), VNQ, SP500, XLU (least). That this order was different from that for volatility was a bit surprising.
    What happens to the withdrawn amount doesn’t matter. But it is most likely spent by the income-oriented investor. Some don’t need the income and reinvest it – but in that case, only a straight TR comparison (TWRR) matters, and the order then was SP500, PDI, XLU, VNQ.
    The period under consideration included the Covid pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war.
    As expected, there was no clear conclusion. It boils down to the current needs and volatility tolerance (comfort level) of the investors
    It may be useful to add conservative/moderate-allocation funds into this mix but that is for another time.
  • Owner to give up two of San Francisco’s largest hotels
    Following is a current report from the San Francisco Chronicle. Anyone holding investments in real estate might want to take notice.
    Park Hotels & Resorts, the owner of two of San Francisco’s biggest hotels — Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55 — has stopped mortgage payments and plans to give up the two properties, in another sign of disinvestment in hard-hit downtown.
    Park Hotels & Resorts said Monday that it stopped making payments on a $725 million loan due in November and expects the “ultimate removal of these hotels” from its portfolio. The company said it would “work in good faith with the loan’s servicers to determine the most effective path forward.”
    The 1,921-room Hilton is the city’s largest hotel and the 1,024-room Parc 55 is the fourth-largest, and together they account for around 9% of the city’s hotel stock. The hotels could potentially be taken over by lenders or sold to a new group as part of the foreclosure process.
    “After much thought and consideration, we believe it is in the best interest for Park’s stockholders to materially reduce our current exposure to the San Francisco market. Now more than ever, we believe San Francisco’s path to recovery remains clouded and elongated by major challenges — both old and new,” said Thomas Baltimore Jr., CEO of Park Hotels, in a statement.
    Those challenges include a record high office vacancy of around 30%, concerns over street conditions, a lower rate of return to office compared to other cities and “a weaker than expected citywide convention calendar through 2027 that will negatively impact business and leisure demand,” he said.
    Park Hotels said San Francisco's convention-driven demand is expected to be 40% lower between 2023 and 2027 compared to the pre-pandemic average.
    San Francisco Travel, the city’s convention bureau, expects Moscone Center conventions to account for over 670,000 hotel room nights this year, higher than 2018’s 660,868 room nights but far below 2019’s record-high 967,956. And weaker convention attendance is projected for each following year through 2030.
    Tourism spending more than doubled in 2022 to $7.4 billion compared to the previous year. A full recovery isn’t expected until 2024 or 2025.
    The company expects to save over $200 million in capital expenditures over the next five years after giving up the hotels, and to issue a special dividend to shareholders of $150 million to $175 million. The company's exposure will shift away from San Francisco towards the higher-growth Hawaii market.
    Parc 55 is a block from Westfield San Francisco Centre, the mall where Nordstrom is departing, and the block where Banko Brown, an alleged shoplifter, was killed in a shooting outside a Walgreens in April. Nearby blocks are also full of empty storefronts, as tourist and local foot traffic hasn’t fully recovered.
    Other hotels have faced financial distress. Atop Nob Hill, the historic Huntington Hotel was sold earlier this year after a mortgage default.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Good idea on FLOT, @Sven. I didn't realize it's investment grade, primarily corporate, per M* ... a completely different animal from junk loans, a la BKLN, SRLN, and equivalent OEFs (what Yogi was warning about above).
    FLOT's objective, from the ishares site:
    The iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment-grade floating rate bonds with remaining maturities between one month and five years.
  • California Insurance Coverage: First- State Farm, now Allstate also quits California
    Hi @WABAC Some Arizona areas to limit and/or restrict new home construction. Multiple article links.
    This (water) has been a long time discussion among friends who moved to Arizona for work. One couple returned to Michigan last winter permanently, from where they started 30 years ago. We've also discussed the Taiwan Semiconductor factory being built and what will be the water source for such operations going forward. They also grew weary of the traffic flows around Phoenix. So, they gladly trade the summer heat of Arizona for the winter chill of Michigan.
  • California Insurance Coverage: First- State Farm, now Allstate also quits California
    Taking trips back to St. Louis, and seeing all of the brick buildings, has always been a jolt after so many years in California. Nothing to take me back there anymore.
    Wild fire tends to show up more often in California.
    Both states share flooding problems in different ways.
    Arizona is strangely tranquil, all things considered.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    @WABAC, what is the best way to invest in US floating rate treasury bills?
    2 yrs FR bills are auction only 4 times a year. iShares floating rate bond ETF, FLOT, has a 0.15% ER with a 30 days SEC yield, 5.75%.
    https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/summary?symbol=FLOT
    The 1, 3 and 5 years total returns are ~2.5% due to the low interest rate.
    I tend to invest in T bills (less than one year), and ST- and IT-treasury bond funds.
  • State Farm halts new home policies in California due to wildfire risk, rising costs
    @Old_Joe, Problem can creep up during the annual policy renewal. It is getting hotter and drier in Portland, OR area in recent years. Many houses hear are built with wood sliding and composition roofs; both are flammable. Some have metal roofs but very few have stucco siding due to the wet and rainy winter.
    Problem in CA now could move north in next few years. Read elsewhere the insurance companies hike the rates and/or caping the coverage amounts to limit the rebuild cost.
  • State Farm halts new home policies in California due to wildfire risk, rising costs
    @Sven- I have no idea, since we haven't had a mortgage for many years. I can tell you that with respect to our weekend place at Guerneville, by the Russian River, a number of major carriers have declined or cancelled coverage, for a number of reasons, including the type of construction. We have been fortunate to find coverage through a smaller insurance carrier, who was recommended to us by agents representing the larger carriers who refused or cancelled our coverage.
    It's a very unsettled situation, to be sure.
  • New to brokered CD's
    I had one CD that matured at the end of last month. I have a couple more short-term CD'sthat will mature between now and January. And there's a T-Bill in there somewhere.
    I'm glad I did it. But I decided on VMFXX for the taxable cash, and USFR for the IRA cash. They seemed the most flexible if buying opportunities should arise; and I think they will. And I think we'll be happy enough over the next 1-2 years with the returns.
  • Done Deal !
    Really kind of bipolar markets data etc....first you hear of layoffs increasing then you get this jobs report... I'd hate to be a macro kind of investor right now...how could you trust your quote signals?
    Do know that a ton of tech workers were let go but also know that other industries have seen reductions of staff too ..
    Still crazy expensive at the grocery store...
    Kinda understand folks who buy indexes and why they do it..also kinda like what the fellas at the bretton fund do ..solid companies that they know will do well looking out five years etc .
    Do still like that 5% plus tbills CD you can get out there ..
    Good luck to All
    Baseball fan
  • California Insurance Coverage: First- State Farm, now Allstate also quits California
    An excerpt from a current report in the San Francisco Chronicle-
    Allstate has stopped writing new homeowner, condominium and commercial insurance policies in California, the company confirmed to The Chronicle.
    The insurer, the fourth largest property and casualty insurance provider in the state in 2021, paused new policies “so we can continue to protect current customers,” spokesperson Brittany Nash wrote in an email to the Chronicle.
    The pause began last year but appeared to receive only a passing mention in industry publications. The Chronicle learned of the development this week, after reviewing an Allstate rate increase request to the California Department of Insurance.
    It was not immediately clear what prompted Allstate’s pullback on new policies. But State Farm, the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in California, made waves in late May by announcing it would stop issuing new homeowner policies in the state due to inflation, wildfires and rising reinsurance costs.
    That Allstate quietly did the same thing last year signals that the insurance woes in the state may be more severe than the public is aware of.
    “State Farm is unusual in that it announces such underwriting actions. It is not required by law and most insurers do not,” said Rex Frazier, president of the Personal Insurance Federation of California, in an email to The Chronicle over the weekend.
    The only public disclosure required of insurers pulling back eligibility in the state comes when they ask the California Department of Insurance for rate increases, Frazier said Thursday.
    At least two other insurers, AIG and Chubb, which cater to high-end homes, have pulled coverage for some of their customers in recent years.
  • Advisers love bonds, cash and value stocks, shun growth and gold - BofA survey
    stillers: BTW, I'm starting to feel genuine sorrow for your family. And I consider that a big step on my part.
    FD: Your usual, I post about investments and you troll my thread and attack me personally. After years that you claimed I don't have a clue, would never retire, and would never make it in retirement, the opposite is true. I retired years ago in 2018. Our portfolio size grew from 25+ times our expenses to close to 50 times, not including SS. All documented (here). We keep spending money on weeks of travel around the world, restaurants, and a new vehicle and are extremely busy. Life is good, no need to feel sorrow, unless you are talking about yourself.