There have been days when I thought people were throwing the baby out with the bathwater (i.e., capitulating), at least with respect to certain corners of the market, but I've been wrong thus far. After years during which my personal rate of inflation far outran the official numbers I'm now finding that those numbers are exceeding my cost of living increases (I'm paying more for gas and food but not rent, a mortgage refinance, a new or used car, etc.). Pretty soon it looks like returns on my cash could be catching up with what my mortgage is costing me in interest (2.75%). I've been dribbling money in, to absolutely no positive effect thus far. So, bringing this all back to the OP, I'm in the "bearish" sentiment category also.

I didn’t want to start a separate thread, so hope no one minds by adding some possibly related thoughts … (2)
- Maybe I’m naive, but I’m sensing some kind of capitulation in the broader equity markets just staring at the numbers, including a 600 point early morning downdraft in the DJI today. Personally, I’ve been adding bits and pieces across the board to various types of equity holdings, including a recent stake in ARKK. Albeit, I may be completely wrong. Furthermore, even should the markets stop or slow their rapid decent, there’s no assurance they won’t later fall much further.
- I spoke to an acquaintance yesterday who has been retired 10 years with no pension. Surviving on Social Security. Little in savings. Owns a home. Not a very prudent course financially of course! However, did very well managing $$ during the past decade of inflation (0-3% as measured by the CPI). Individual is utterly “lost” in this new era of 8-9% inflation. Have to feel for folks like that. Perhaps this anecdote relates to the “Sentiment Index” in some small way.

That is so true! Last year was bad for large cap growth funds with large capital gain distribution. In some case even they have a negative return year. Index funds would be a better option for taxable account. I have done that several years ago.

Only fund from TRP we have owned for about 20 years is TRAIX. I've paid very little attention to it now.

TROW $110.77 this morning.
My guess is TROW will be a lot higher in a few years - if you have a long term horizon. Asset managers tend to wax and wane with the overall equity market since their earnings are based largely on fees assessed on those invested assets. In a bear market, like now, those assets have declined in worth - reducing fees earned. As some investors flee, it worsens the effect. A double-whammy this time around is that fixed income assets under management (ie bonds) have declined in sync with equities. On reflection, I don’t think these (asset managers) are a good hedge inside an equity heavy portfolio (for obvious reason).
I’ve been trying to think through the possible effect the bonanza double digit yield on one-year inflation adjusted treasury bonds has had. Certainly, $10,000 isn’t enough to rock the risk markets. But magnify that sum by X number of investors and it has to have had an effect. I’m wondering too how that has possibly impacted the short term muni market?
I often check the YTD Numbers on BB and they’re beginning to look stark. Last evening:
DOW -14%
S&P - 19%
NAS - 27%
Suspect we haven’t enjoyed this much drama in the markets since ‘08.

Wonder if it’s recent 40% drop in share price was a result of institutional selling verses “dumb money” investor’s selling.

I doubt that. But let’s look at this a different way. I wonder if more individual investors have fled the markets or stopped contributing to their workplace plan? And whether TRP with its stellar history of serving those smaller investors has felt the impact more than some institutions that cater to higher net worth investors?

@Derf: it used to be possible to average one’s income over 4-5 years, thereby reducing the pain from a big spike. The IRS did away with that provision, but I don’t know when.

Any chance to spread the real estate CG. payment, over two or more years to ease the pain ?

Thanks @sma3
What we've done over the years is to not withhold much tax from the monthly pension payments, knowing we will underpay for the year; but when pulling the RMD's for the IRA's in December, we withhold extra tax for these distributions. This maintains our tax obligation amount for the year; and we have a bit of extra money monthly from the pensions. Fidelity makes it easy to set how much Fed. and state tax to pull for the RMD distributions.
Thanks @msf
I'll look at your links, as I already have a few saved from the IRS site for further study. I'm going to peek inside last years tax program, too; for any guidance there. As this capital gains event will take place during the 3rd quarter, we don't have flex via earlier calendar periods to pay estimated taxes then. As we are retired, we don't have a method to withhold more taxes from employment income, for an offset.

I am fairly certain if you pay 100% of your 2021 total on time, there will be no penalty regardless of your 2022 income.
If you take RMDs, you can pay all of your estimates taxes at the end of the year and have it count for entire year without penalty. Ask your brokerage to send the amount you determine is due to the IRS as a tax payment. Just make sure you file for the withdrawal with enough time for them to process it before 12/31/2022
This also reduces the value of your IRA, making next years RMD lower.

The 30 day SEC yield is the best approximation of what a fund would return if it held its bonds to maturity/call. If one thinks of a portfolio consisting of a single bond, the SEC yield would be the YTW.
For example, a 5 year bond selling at $104, with a 5% coupon would yield 4.1% to maturity. That's the same as buying a 5 year bond selling at par with a 4.1% coupon. From the point of view of your total return, no difference. These are even treated the same for tax purposes - the higher coupon is treated as return of principal, so that at the end of five years, cost basis of the first bond is $100.
If what you care about is higher interest payments (5% vs. 4.1%) and the loss of 4% in principal (over the life of the bond) is not of concern, then look at the trailing or current yield. If what you care about is total return, including loss (or gain) in principal because bonds don't always trade at par, then look at SEC yield.
There's another SEC yield figure, which is the 7 day yield. It is used for MMFs, and is effectively a current yield calculation. Which makes sense because MMF portfolios mature extremely quickly - current yield and YTW are very similar. With MMFs, looking at TTM is silly. Consider:
VMFXX TTM (1 year) return was 0.17%, while its SEC (current) yield is 1.45%
Vanguard MMFs
Here's what Calamos says about 30 day SEC yield:

30-day SEC yield was introduced in 1988 by the Securities and Exchange Commission to standardize the inputs mutual funds employ to calculate the statistic, allowing for a fairer comparison. The calculation uses the current yields to worst of all fixed income portfolio holdings to estimate how much interest the fund’s assets would have earned over the past 30-day period. After deducting the fund’s expenses and fees, the income earned is annualized and divided by the net asset value on the day of calculation. While standardized, the 30-day SEC yield is limited in that it is based on a static portfolio as of month-end. However, because 30-day SEC yield is based on the yield to worst methodology ..., it is more forward looking and can provide a more accurate indication of the income an investor might expect to receive.

https://www.calamos.com/globalassets/media/documents/sales-ideas/yldcom-033031-0917o-c_final.pdf

I wonder whether the problems discussed above are related to the personal decision not to buy TIPS or T-bonds and hold them until maturity? I am considering buying T-bills. I never did it, so maybe I am confused by something, but I see that 52 week T-bills yield almost exactly 3%. I understand that I would miss liquidity for 1 year, but can you suggest anything else risk free (apart for I-bonds) which gives 3% per year guaranteed? Same logic should apply to TIPS, but holding them for 5 years is something to be considered more carefully. Any comments?

Yet another way to decide if TIPS are interesting is to look at the Break Even Yield.
1yr 3.99
2yr 3.45
3yr 2.99
5yr 2.75
7yr 2.47
10yr 2.37
30yr 2.24
What do these numbers mean? The 1yr 3.99 means that the "market" expect CPI_U to be 3.99% over the next 1 year. Over the next 7 years, on average, the CPI_U will be 2.47% a year.
How should we process that? Should we trust the bond market that inflation is going to come back down to more or less what it was before the recent spike to 8-9%?
Should we disagree with the market? If one thinks inflation will be much higher, and I dont have the slightest idea, what inflation will be, TIPS offer a way to protect against that. The Mark to Market of holding a 7 year TIP doesnt matter if in the end the inflation is going to come out at 6% (for example).
At 6% inflation for next 7 years, TIPS will win hands down, and fixed bonds will get destroyed. I gave the 6% number as an outlandish case to prove a point.

I have written on TIPS earlier for MFO in the Feb issue. Here is the link:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2022/02/thoughts-on-inflation-protection/
The 1st tool for inflation protection and the easiest one is Series I bonds. Each American tax payer can buy it for 10K online and 5k in paper through Tax refunds. That is the easy part because you can never lose mark to market money in that product. One doesn't even have deflation risk (I know, an odd think to think about right now) in Series I bonds. You are always protected at a zero inflation floor and get paid more than that if CPI is higher.
But what should we do AFTER I bonds, if anything.
One can always leave money in cash. Cash is always going to protect the notional value, provided, the 8-9% inflation we have witnessed in the last 12 months does not bother the person.
It's understandable if people look for protection against inflation. When you've satiated your I bond capacity and don't want to leave in cash, what are the other tools available.
1. TIPS
2. Commodities?
3. Real Estate?
4. Thoughtfully managed short-end taxable mutual funds?
There are no guaranteed answers but TIPS have a 100% correlation to CPI-U. Do remember that the calculation of CPI in the TIPS accruals is lagged by 3 months.
Complete details on how TIPS work can be seen in this video I produced a few years back:

A great website on TIPS is maintained by David Enna: tipswatch.com
I can tell you why I continue to hold short-dated TIPS.
YTD, the VTIP (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF) is down 1.53% year to date. How should I process that information given the high CPI we have witnessed thus far.
YTD, the price return of VTIP has been -3.8% and the total return has been -1.5%.
This means, TIP owners have been paid 2.5% in "interest" from CPI. But because of lagged use of CPI and not enough time gone by, this 2.5% is less than 6-7-8-or-9% that might be accrued due to CPI increases when the year is done. Not all of the interest will accrue right away but it will all make its way through the TIPS eventually.
Another question to ask is: what would I have held instead that is Bond like?
1. TIP (7.5 year duration) -8.9% ytd
2. LTPZ (20year duration) - 26% ytd
3. Short Term Treasuries -3.5% ytd
4. Intermediate Term Treasuries -7.7% ytd
5. Long Term Treasuries - 22% ytd
What would have been US Government paper and "safer"? Maybe 3 month T-bills would have been fine. And that's the same as cash.
Once an investor goes outside of the TIPS universe for inflation protection, one opens up a can of unknowns.
Equity REITS -20%,
Commodities and Commodity stocks did great for a while and recently had a 30-50% correction based on what one owned.
Volatility matters for meeting goals. VTIP was the cleanest among the dirty shirts.
If absolute returns is your goal, and it's a good one, in the Fixed Income Taxable bond universe, RiverPark Short Term High Yield Institutional, RPHIX, is UP on the year. David Sherman's been phenomenal in keeping the fund above the surface in 2022.
FPA New Income, apparently Open, but I cant buy it because it shows up Closed due to Schwab not having updated their database, is also long a lot of Floating rate bonds that will help the fund in the future.
I continue to be long VTIP because I believe that even if Fed raising rates further has an impact on Duration and Real Yields, and it hurts VTIP, eventually you get paid through CPI as long as inflation remains sticky. And if inflation comes down, the portfolio would benefit from OTHER assets. *unless we are in stagflation, in which case, God help*
Hope this was helpful.

Thanks for starting this thread. I DO own PRWCX. I had been following traditional advice about a 60/40 portfolio in retirement, reducing equities, and growing my bonds. Then came the party after fed stimulus, when covid struck. Then came the war in Ukraine. Then came supply chain issues. A can of hash here costs $5.00, last time I looked. Then came souped-up inflation and Central Banks raising rates. And the market downturn.
Because I am me, I responded to it all late and inadequately--- as ever.
I bought some funds just as they were turning DOWN, earlier in the year. I'm down to 20% bonds, and my one bond fund is a TRP HY animal, now. TUHYX. I'm up to 73% stocks. PRWCX = 36.73% of total today.. (Hank says he's be adding to it now, in these current circumstances. I just did add a couple of thousand dollars to it, about a month ago. I would not dare to do that with any other fund or stock, letting it get SO big.)
Same goes for my still rather small stake in single stocks. I just started to grow THAT garden as the Market turned south. But as I have been able, I've been adding, given depressed equity prices these days. I keep my eye on a watchlist. But my retirement IRA and my brokerage account are like swimming pools with a very tall wall between them. If I take too much from the former in order to give to the latter, I'll owe taxes I don't want to pay. i live in the ZERO bracket these days. Still have a couple of years before RMDs begin.
The common wisdom is to put a limit of 20% on any single holding. That's what I'd heard. I blew THAT one out of the water. After PRWCX, my other stuff, in order of size is:
PRISX. 14.9% of total.
PRNEX. 11.45%
TUHYX. 10.7%
TRAMX. 7.4%
PRFDX. 5.53%
BRUFX. 5.36%
BHB. 3.54%
ET. 2.94%
RGR. 1.45%
I'm down significantly YTD, but I'm in good company. I don't do shorts, don't invest in inverse, 3X upside-down bear funds. I'm waiting this out. When a recession shows itself, The Fed will cry "uncle," I bet. With 34% of my total in financials around the world, I'll be happier than a pig in shit when rates come down.
That was more than @Bobpa and everyone else needed to know. Sorry. Great question, though.

Treasury Direct (TD) has only a virtual keyboard for password entry and you cannot get rid of it. Unusually, the TD passwords are not case-sensitive (most typically are, while usernames are not). TD is just an older and clunky website.

For years I cursed the virtual keyboard until I discovered that my password manager (1Password) will fill in the password and bypass the keyboard on my desktop Mac.

”I presently have 77% in 5 funds in nearly equal amounts.”

Sounds reasonable. You posted some time back that you had 20% in PRWCX. (LINK). Not a bad choice. By all accounts it’s a great moderate risk fund. I sold it last week. But if I still owed it I’d be adding now with it down roughly 12-15% from recent highs.
No rule of course. When I was 25 I owned one. My workplace Templeton “advisor” had me in just one good global growth fund, Worked fine. (And I could have cared less at that age,) But over the following 50 years both my experience base and also the sheer amount of investment information available have multiplied. I don’t know how many mutual funds existed in 1972, but likely fewer than 10% of today’s choices. Bottom line - I’ve gone from 1 holding to over 20 (funds and stocks) in those 50 years.
One holding would still work. There are some good fund managers who can achieve nice diversification within a single fund. However, I don’t find tracking 20+ holdings that tedious using a good modern day tracker and with so much information now at my fingertips. Being at a NTF brokerage is somewhat of a new experience. If I’m going to “reach” a bit and dabble in some individual equities, far better I think to diversify and spread the risk around. After all, that was the overarching purpose of mutual funds in the early days - to spread market risk across a diversified cross section of stocks.
More directly to your question: While 1 fund could work, 5 might not work if they were the wrong choices or outside your risk parameters. Personal bias - I’d rather see people trying to hone in on the right allocation model for their risk appetite and needs rather than fretting about how many funds to own.

An update on the user interface aspect would be very helpful to investors. This is typically government sites that were build many years ago and with minor and I frequent updates.

The savings bond calculator will display the value of a savings bond as of any given month. To find the net amount of interest credited to the savings bond between two given months ask for the values on those two months and take the difference.
Note: this shows net interest credited. One doesn't get credit for the last three months of interest until the savings bond has been owned for five years.
For example, if you input your month of purchase, 03/2022, and an amount of $1,000 (since $10K paper bonds are no longer issued), you'll see $6.00 of interest both total and YTD (useful if you're electing to pay taxes yearly). Multiply by 10 to show the interest on a savings bond worth ten times as much (i.e. $10,000).
Unlike TIPS, with savings bonds there is no adjustment to principal. The entire increase in value is due to interest.

Right about Montpelier; the state capital with the fewest number of inhabitants, a sweet town. That splurge was many years ago, when I had a metabolism like a volcano.

Several prominent fund managers and the CIO exited Matthews Asia since 2020.
Bill Hackett, the CEO for 13 years, retired on June 30, 2022.
From the July M* FundInvestor newsletter:
"Cooper Abbott joined Matthews International Capital
Management as CEO on June 13, 2022, succeeding
Bill Hackett, who had served as CEO for 13 years and
is retiring on June 30. This development is unsur-
prising, because Matthews announced in December
2021 that Hackett was planning on retiring in
mid-2022 and that a search was underway for
his replacement."
"Abbott has more than 20 years of senior investment
management experience. He previously served
as president and chairman at Carillon Tower Advisors
(where he led that firm’s acquisitions of several
asset managers during his tenure) and as executive
vice president of investments and co-chief operating
officer at Eagle Asset Management (which is an affil-
iate of Carillon Tower Advisors)."