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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Observant1, we also left Vanguard last year to Fidelity after many years of disappointment. For now we only have ARTKX and SFIGX as our main international stock exposure. I like to increase oversea exposure in both bonds and stocks in light of the falling US dollar. Got homework over this weekend.
    Market is up the last 3 days but it is a LONG way from the height of mid-February. Will wait and see until concrete policy is in place.
  • China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war

    most realize it is a momentum mkt, and a short-term correction to all time highs is very much a possibility :
    - being unable to extract any more donations\bribes in 1-on-1 tariff negotiations, trump gets bored and declares victory resulting in status quo via combination of exemptions and suspensions. (abundant signals already)
    - extension of tax cuts actually happen
    - through recession, coercion, or independent decisions, short term rates may get cut
    what the market will get WRONG in its short-term weighting is that there is any viable trump strategy and no longterm economic damage. effective capex injury from halted reshoring away from china has already taken hits for ~10 weeks of uncertainty regardless of MAGA propaganda.
    what the vast majority also gets wrong (continuously) is that they can time it...refer to trump bump and 4 years of a golden age vibe post-election.
  • Tariffs
    Great read! But...
    "...And this time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months."
    Hmmm...That's wishful thinking. But scoring at home, I got it at three years, nine months!
  • Tariffs
    Peter Navarro is 75 years old. Maybe his day in the light of genius is fading and and his day in the cognitive scaffolding of his brain is emerging in an inflexible, narrow, misguided caricature of his former, more broader, genius.
  • China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war
    Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, this would seem to qualify as an investment consideration.
    Finally, yes. After dozens of no.
    But wait, why should most care about one stock? Watch the SP500 and let me know.
    Boeing had problems for years now and the stock lost money in the last 3 years(https://schrts.co/iMhxbfFJ)
    If you believe in all your posts. You should sell everything, or at least all your American stocks + bonds and be In MM until Trump is out of office.
    It will be interesting to see your reaction when the SP500 breaks its previous high. I will be back :-)
  • Tariffs
    This morning's POLITICO Playbook was amusing reading ..... seems the WH continues to cave on trade. Not only is FOTUS changing his public tune again on China and the Fed chair, but they’re now trying to ink ‘Memorandums of Understanding’ with countries vs. full trade agreements or Navarro's "easy 90 agreements in 90 days" - in other words, they’re going to officially agree to talk about future agreements & calling it a ‘win’ for Donnie. Lipstick on a pig face-saving moves.
    But the damage has already been done, trust has been lost, and IMO it's quite possible in the comign years that the global economic system will be restructured *around* the US, not necessarily *through* the US.
    I should add that it's IMF/World Bank meeting week down here so of course he’s getting very ‘yippy’ about things when the *real* power players of the world assemble to discuss his tariff tantrums and the global ramifications of his nonsense.
  • Morningstar on New SEC
    https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-new-sec-leadership-could-mean-crypto-private-markets-more
    "We believe that the SEC will be active in three areas under Atkins’ leadership:
    turning back the clock on cryptocurrency regulation,
    democratizing access to private markets,
    making it easier for companies to stay private.
    ...
    Conclusion
    In summary, three things investors should watch for from this new SEC are a step back from the world of digital assets, greater access to private investments for retail investors, and reducing barriers to capital raising in the private markets.
    All of these potential changes will have significant implications for investor protection that we will monitor in the coming months and years."
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "looking for EX US bond fund/ etf. Ideas? "
    If global bond funds are acceptable, you may want to check DODLX and PFORX.
    VEGBX seems like a good choice for EM bonds.
    I am not much into screens to find funds but one of my favorite emerging market debt fund I have traded the past couple years has been EADOX/EIDOX If there is a better one out there in the emerging market category I would love to know. AGEYX more of a frontier emerging debt fund is another good one.
  • Tariffs
    All they had to do is say they MIGHT have a deal with China, and this schizo market cheers up (short-term). Of course, major victory will be declared by the US regime no matter what the actual terms end up being.
    The only problem is that no country will trust us for the next 4 years and our name is now "Mudd" on the international stage.
    So much...winning.
  • Just received this email. Schwab anti-trust settlement
    Schwab paid millions to buy USAA Brokerage accounts when I was a account holder at USAA. USAA pocketed those millions (nothing came to the account holders) and Schwab eliminated a competing platform (in this case, USAA Brokerage), so this recent class action suit has merit IMHO.
    Before the transfer date of the USAA - Schwab brokerage account merger, I moved my accounts to Merril/BOA and got some compensation by receiving a transfer bonus of $1k from Merril/BOA.
    A few years later, TD Ameritrade was a better option for me and I moved my accounts from Merril to TD Ameritrade and I received a second transfer bonus of $1K from TDA.
    Then Schwab swooped in again. This time they were after my TD Ameritrade accounts. TDA made lots of money selling these accounts to Schwab.
    Before the TD Ameritrade - Schwab transfer date, I decided to transfer my accounts to Fidelity (who offered a small transfer bonus). Today, I am happy to be with a competitor to Schwab's services.
    My personal story is proof that Schwab buys rather than earns its client base. I realize that USAA and TD Ameritrade also "sold me out" so shame on them for not sharing those profits with their members (accounts holders). That is probably where the client got screwed the most and where the class action suit should have focused some of its efforts.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Again, OAKMX is a 5*, LCV fund that tracks well vs the S&P, beating it by 2% over the past 3 years, by 5+% over 5 years, trailing it by a measly 0.5% over 10 years, and beating it by 2% over its LFE.
    I don't diss funds that do that, especially LCV funds! I more tend to own them.
    EDIT: Corrected based on @Shostavovich post
    No idea what this has to do with their international products
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Again, OAKMX is a 5*, LCV fund that tracks well vs the S&P, beating it by 2% over the past 3 years, by 5+% over 5 years, trailing it by a measly 0.5% over 10 years, and beating it by 2% over its LFE.
    I don't diss funds that do that, especially LCV funds! I more tend to own them.
    EDIT: Corrected based on @Shostavovich post
  • US stock markets fall again as Trump calls Fed chair ‘a major loser’
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    President amps up attacks against Jerome Powell, pushing him to lower interest rates to offset impact of tariffs
    US stock markets fell again on Monday as Donald Trump continued attacks against the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, who the US president called “a major loser” for not lowering interest rates. “There can be a slowing of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote on social media.
    In recent days, Trump has amped up attacks against the Fed chair, pushing Powell to lower interest rates to offset the inflationary impacts of the new tariffs. Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut rates, likely to appease the stock market, which plummeted after he announced his newest slate of tariffs. But Wall Street isn’t taking the bait and appears to be reacting in opposition to Trump’s attacks against Powell and the independence of the US central bank.
    The Dow ended the day down 2.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 2.5% down and the S&P 500 fell 2.4%. Former tech stocks favorites including Tesla and Nvidia lost ground, while the value of the dollar fell to multiyear lows against most major currencies. Stock markets had recovered the losses they endured after Trump rolled out his “liberation day” tariffs proposals, which would have imposed huge levies on all of the US’s trading partners. But almost all the gains made in the stock market following Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause of his so-called reciprocal tariffs have been erased amid these new jabs against Powell.
    Powell, known to be extremely measured in his public remarks, has in recent weeks spoken out about Trump’s tariffs and warned that they may lead to a “challenging scenario” for the Fed, implying that the Fed has no plans to cut interest rates anytime soon: “Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation. The inflation effects could also be more persistent,” Powell told reporters on 16 April.
    US inflation peaked at 9% in June 2022 but has slowly come down over the last few years, largely due to the Fed’s careful adjustment of interest rates. The Fed has set its inflation rate target at 2%. Powell often refers to the central bank’s “dual mandate” – to keep inflation in check while maximising employment. Higher interest rates can bring down prices, though it can come at the risk of higher unemployment. Over the last few years, the Fed has been able to bring down inflation while keeping the unemployment rate relatively low, around 4%. Last month, inflation cooled to 2.4%, though the most recent government figures do not account for the Trump tariffs.
    The Fed has long been treated as a nonpartisan, nonpolitical federal agency, though Trump has recently floated the idea of terminating Powell, whose term is up in May 2026. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Trump wrote on social media last week.
    Such a move would be unprecedented and would likely put Wall Street into a further tailspin. In an interview with CNBC, Krishna Guha, the vice-chair of Evercore ISI, an equity research firm, said that there would be a “severe reaction” from markets if Trump fires Powell. “I can’t believe that’s what the administration is trying to achieve,” Guha said.
    It’s also unclear whether Trump has the authority to remove Powell from his post. The supreme court is currently hearing a case that could give Trump more power to fire federal officials before their terms are up, though it’s unclear whether that could reach the Fed. Last week, Powell emphasized the importance of the Fed’s independence from political forces: “Our independence is a matter of law,” Powell said. “We serve very long terms, seemingly endless terms, so we’re protected by the law.”
    But that doesn’t mean the Trump administration isn’t trying. On Friday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters that the administration “will continue to study” if they can legally fire Powell.
    Fed officials meet monthly to discuss potential changes to the interest rate. The next meeting between officials will take place 6 and 7 May.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    I owned it for about 8 years in a advised account until bailing in 2021. It was bad for those 8 years. went to a factor based international fund (to match my 401k) and never looked back.
  • Foreign Trade Zones (FTZ)
    Foreign Trade Zones, a relic of 1930s, are suddenly popular. Goods imported can simply be stored in FTZ warehouses for up to 5 years and the duty is paid only when those goods are withdrawn for sale or use. Suddenly, a tariff problem becomes a logistics problem - logistics is already a huge industry as it replaced much of what old JIT delivery/manufacturing was. Of course, the goods may be outdated or out of fashion/style in 5 years.
    Recent pre-tariff users of FTZs have been consumer goods and retail, automotive, aerospace, and electronics.
    But when tariff rules can change by the day, this is suddenly a good logistics solution. Alternate is not to ship in advance and take the tariff lumps as they come.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/trump-tariffs-import-surge-tax-free-foreign-trade-zones.html
  • Oakmark International Funds
    We have owned OAKMX off-and-on over the years and own it currently. Still a 5* fund that tracks well vs S&P despite being LCV. Was having a very good year until the debacle. Always thought it was/is their best offering.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Long-term investor with Oakmark here (OAKIX, OAKWX, OAKEX, and sometimes OAKBX). I am still with Oakmark, though I don't know why. They really seemed to have lost a lot of their mojo over the past 5+ years. I saw it first with OAKBX; OAKEX has long been a laggard in the space. I think at this point I stay with Oakmark largely for diversification (manager concentration risk) and because they have a wide range of funds I can readily move between.
    On manager concentraiton risk -- I don't like having too much money with a single manager, and I don't want to have funds with a ton of different manager; currently I have 15% from an old Roth I started in grad school with Oakmark. I am split across four major fund families currently.
  • China sends back new Boeing jet made too expensive by tariffs
    China is a big customer for Boeing, and this will hurt. China aerospace industry is maturing, but they should able to export their own passenger aircrafts in coming years.
  • Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Stock Returns
    "Conventional wisdom has long held that the more optimistic consumers are, the better it is for the stock market.
    We decided to put that to the test."

    "What we found is a lot more complicated than some might think.
    That conventional wisdom held true for many years.
    But since Covid struck in 2020, the relationship has reversed: When consumer sentiment has been high,
    stock returns generally have been low, and vice versa."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-complicated-relationship-between-consumer-sentiment-and-stocks/ar-AA1Cmbsj
  • Don’t Buy "Easy Fix" for Stock-Market Craziness
    "With the stock and bond markets stumbling in unison, investment firms and financial advisers
    are pushing so-called alternative funds harder than ever."

    "Many institutional investors, glutted with private assets, are twiddling their thumbs waiting to get their money out. Private-equity firms are sitting on more than 29,000 companies, valued at $3.6 trillion, that they can’t unload. Returns for many alternatives have stagnated. Why buy what these folks are trying to dump?"
    "Over the 10 years through June 30, 2024, the median endowment earned a 6.7% annualized total return net of fees, according to the 2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. That was far behind the 12.8% annualized total return of the S&P 500 over the same period—and not much better than an ETF with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, which grew at 5.9% annually."
    "Many of these institutions have privileged access to the world’s best managers of alternative assets—
    yet barely managed to beat out a boring, dirt-cheap ETF."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/don-t-buy-into-this-easy-fix-for-stock-market-craziness/ar-AA1DbLkK