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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @hank ; I see DODBX had a rather large CG !
    Added : Have you held this fund as a long term hold, say over ten years ?
    Umm CG? Is that something good?
    I’ve owned DODBX for about 20 years - the same amount of time I’ve been with D&C. It’s just one of several of their different funds I’ve used from time to time over those years. So the amount in DODBX has waxed and waned over time. Presently it serves as the major part of the “growth” portion of my portfolio. Yes - it contains bonds too, but those have rarely accounted for as much as 30% of the fund.
    Hope I’ve addressed the thirst of your question adequately @Derf
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @hank ; I see DODBX had a rather large CG !
    Added : Have you held this fund as a long term hold, say over ten years ?
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    Many moves made in late 2021 that helped/distracted this year.
    1. Sold all bond funds to stable value, CDs, T bills and money market (just as we need 529 fund for our kids in college)
    2. Bought commodity futures and energy and sold half of it last month
    3. Sold all EM funds and bought conservative value overseas funds
    4. Rotated from growth to value funds as value lagged for so many years (sheer dumb luck).
    5. Reduced loss with dividend growth funds
    5. Alternatives were flat.
    6. Precious metals were flat in light of high inflation. Bitcoins must attracted the $.
    For the year, we have a negative single digit loss. Hopefully we are in good position to do better in 2023.
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    What worked was alternative funds. Had members exchanged their balanced funds either three years ago or just one year ago for REMIX, in the first instance, or PAEGX in the second, they would be crowing about their gains.
    @LewisBraham was spot-on to point to PGAEX in June of '22 as a fund worth watching. That fund has made money for its entire short existence and with a very steady climb. BLNDX/REMIX was profiled by @DavidSnowball back in 2019 as an alternative fund that promised to deliver. It did so, but the ride was rough at certain junctures.
    I did not get out of my balanced funds (JBALX, PRSIX, BRUFX) all at once or soon enough, so I did not see great gains from my REMIX stake. However, I do not have losses for 2022.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Volatility in 3 years… particularly during the beginning of pandemic in March 2020. It rebounded strongly after Powell cut the rate. Nevertheless it showed the magnitude of drawdown.
    I am watching carefully and have pared back some BL/FR funds. Question is what can Giruox do with a such large asset fund. Right now, he is holding some treasuries, perhaps as a hedge in case things get back. He stated I several interviews that US market is strong fundamentally and we will not in a recession.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    LB's article in Barron's looks at pros and cons of FR/BL.
    Keep in mind that FR/BL are a subclass of HY and their rate resetting mechanism works fine when rates are rising or stable. If rates start declining, or economy finds itself in recession, then they will be hit hard like other HY. Davis Giroux runs a capital appreciation fund PRWCX with some exposure to credit spreads and he won't be doing B&H for FR/BL.
    Fido FFRHX, 1-yr (default). Switch to 3+ years to see volatility. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FFRHX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80706396341
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @MikeM, are we reading the same Barron article by LewisBraham. One I read is “
    Floating-Rate Loan Funds Have Promise—and Hidden Risks” and David Giruox was part of the interview. If that is the case, I came away with a different interpretation from yours on bonds in which risk is higher today with bank loan funds than previous years.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Thanks @Catch22
    From Whitman: “The ship has weather’d every rack …”
    Owning bonds / bond funds felt like “bow-shock” aboard ship or plane all year long. The talking heads and market gurus I monitor mostly speak optimistically of a splendid 2023 for longer dated bonds. In particular, Rick Rieder of Blackrock appears to have trouble “containing” himself during interviews on this point. We shall see. I had plans to pull some $$ from PRIHX about now after having held it 3 years or more. But stinks so badly now that I won’t touch it. I’ll let the money “ferment” longer (like fine wine) and hopefully recoup this year’s losses some day.
    You really need a sense of humor to invest today. :)
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    They settle on a relatively consistent, usually conservative monthly distribution early in the year, with the result that most years, there's excess income to distribute at the end of the year.
    This is by design. Many CEFs including PDI have a managed distribution policy. It's a little hard to see this in the prospectus, but it is there.
    Closed-end fund managed distribution programs are designed to facilitate regular, relatively consistent distributions to shareholders, typically by:
    1. Estimating a fund’s long-term total return (both income and long-term appreciation, net of expenses)
    2. Setting a regular monthly or quarterly distribution amount intended to match the fund’s total distributions to its total return over time
    https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/closed-end-funds/understanding-managed-distributions
    From the PDI prospectus:
    The Fund makes regular monthly cash distributions to Common Shareholders at a rate based upon the past and projected net income of the Fund. Subject to applicable law, the Fund may fund a portion of its distributions with gains from the sale of portfolio securities and other sources. The Fund’s dividend policy, as well as the dividend rate that the Fund pays on its Common Shares, may vary as portfolio and market conditions change, and will depend on a number of factors.
    RPHYX/ RPHIX doesn't manage its distributions. Generally, what you see (earn as income) is what you get (as income divs).
    ----
    David Sherman's CrossingBridge Pre-Merger SPAC ETF, ticker SPC, also gave a .24/share distribution yesterday. Nice Christmas present from these 2 holdings.
    I hadn't taken a close look at SPC. Interesting fund. Follows Sherman's RPHYX approach of investing in "remnants", but in a different pool ("money good" SPACs, i.e. ones "trading at par value or at a discount" ).
    These divs come out of NAV, unlike divs in funds that declare divs daily. Whether the fund sells more assets to pay a larger div, or the shareholder sells shares to generate the same cash flow, the effect is the same.
    This is why I prefer to focus on total return. Though I do understand that receiving a dividend (especially a large one) "automatically" somehow feels different.
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    Pimco has a habit of making special December income distributions, larger than the previous months' in their OEFs and CEFs (maybe their ETFs too, don't have much experience with them). They settle on a relatively consistent, usually conservative monthly distribution early in the year, with the result that most years, there's excess income to distribute at the end of the year. No idea if that's what's at work w/ Riverpark.
    Two Pimco examples from this year: PDI had a consistent 0.2205 income distribution through the year and then issued a special income distribution of 0.65 Dec 27; PIMIX (which somewhat uncharacteristically boosted the monthly twice during the year) put out a special income distribution of 0.1036 the same day.
    I'd guess that funds with shorter durations (and/or high turnover) during a period of rising rates might tend to land in that situation -- as they replace lower yielding securities with higher yielding ones.
  • Dividend Paying with Funds
    Does any one have suggested Dividends that are good buys either quarterly or monthly by companies who has paid them for many years. Thank you so much.
    Ron Dombcik
  • How to get rid of comment, that I didn't post ?
    Thanks to ALL for their suggestions. With that said I could have stated the problem with a little better wording.
    I took my comment, that I forgot to post & sent it to "save draft" where I was able to relieve myself of the post I forgot to post .
    Happy New Years to ALL, Derf
  • VWINX
    @sma3, note that @Sven was talking about both VWINX and VWELX. Only VWELX has modified its equity orientation from value to blend/growth. I haven't heard any such recent thing for VWINX (of course, it has changed gradually over the years).
  • Time is your friend.
    @MikeM. Gotcha. Of course, Hawaii is super expensive. And Honolulu is the most expensive. I would not choose to own, unless I could go back to my teens and re-orient my entire life so that I had some level of interest in things practical, technical and mechanical. The maintenance overhead never goes away, no matter where the house is.
    Rochester is snow country, but you also have the universities. So, there's THAT. I lived in the Southern Tier for 5 years. The sky never needed a reason to throw snow down on us. Miserable. In nearby Olean, NY, you can still buy a house for $60,000.00. "Location, location, location." STILL, it would not be worth it to me. I pay rent, but the headaches belong to the Landlord. We seem to have found a trustworthy, reliable guy. Something to be glad about in such a stinky year.
  • VWINX
    In the long run, VWINX is a fine allocation fund for conservative investors. Wellington has a deep bench of managers and new managers are likely been a co-manager for several years before assuming the role as the full manager.
    LewisBranham is spot on. It is common that value managers buy growth stock when valuation becomes attractive (and potentially providing better earning in the future). So timing is crucial for getting at a good price. Case in point, VWELX picked up several FAANG stocks too early this year and it did the opposite.
    On the bond allocation, VWINX’s duration was a bit longer than the intermediate term bonds, 5-6 years. This was pointed out by another MFO poster. It is tough to have more long duration bonds in the mx in order to provide decent yield to investors, but also affect the bonds more with the aggressive rate hikes. The recent reduction on its duration is to improve the bond risk going into 2023.
  • How to get rid of comment, that I didn't post ?
    Select the 'Flag' to the right of 'time'. This will open a message window. Type your comment and send. David receives the message and reviews what was written. I've used this several times many years ago, when there was a time period of several trolls who had created an account and writing nasty stuff.
    Derf will have to clarify the circumstance he is trying to correct.
  • The PCE index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, slowed to 5.5% in November
    @Old_Joe, I notice the same changes in bank CD yield too, but I don’t know more than you do. Wonder if that is related to mortgage lending and the demand has greatly reduced after rounds of rate hikes.
    Right now there are few 2-3 years non-callable CDs with yields above 4.60% at Fidelity. Have you consider treasury bills? 26 weeks (6 months) and 52 weeks (one year) treasury bills are yielding about 4.75% at auction as of past Tuesday. I was expecting the yield would go up a bit after the 50 bps rate hike, but it didn’t.
  • Time is your friend.
    I know I don't know how to invest for the end of civilization as I know it.
    I know I have some investments that have been sitting around through 30~40 years of sturm und drang, I wish I had had more to invest at the time.
  • Time is your friend.
    Unfortunately, @Bopa appears to have deleted most of his original content (OP) on July 31. The intellect here is so massive that a great discussion has ensued for nearly 5 months afterward. :)
    I can only say that I’m glad I retired nearly 25 years ago to live in a home I already owned rather than relying on the vicissitudes of the rental market. Your experience(s) may differ.
  • SEC comes through for small investor
    It did not really take much doing. I just filed a complaint with the SEC with the details like Ticker symbol, share amounts, price change etc. IT took about ten minutes.
    I had a similar thing happen several years ago but for only 20 or 30 busks difference I think. Still is probably worth complaining even for $20.
    Beats filling out all those class action lawsuit things. I have never gotten more than a few bucks from those
    Same. Often the amount of time it takes for a person to research stuff to complete the class action form far outweighs the pittance we get by joining the class.