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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Buy Sell Why: 2022

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Comments

  • edited May 10
    carew388 said:

    FSAGX has gone nowhere as well.

    Not necessarily bad. The miners can be extraordinarily volatile / the metal to a somewhat lesser extent. OPGSX has experienced at least one selloff of 70% or greater over consecutive 2-3 year periods. Reason I commit very little and usually lighten up after a good run. “Buy low - sell high” is apt for these types of funds IMHO.
  • Crash if you're committed to the high-yield sector RSIVX has lost less than half a percent. My Fidelity screener indicated that short-term HY has lost less than HY, and funds from Fidelity, Janus and MetWest have been hammered like TUHYX
  • edited May 11
    Great tip, @carew388. All my TRP stuff is sequestered and married to TRP in the T-IRA. I will be saving-up cash and hopefully buy RSIVX via my brokerage.... *Edited to add: the divs. look lean, but of course, it's Total Return that matters. Thanks, again.
  • edited May 11
    There will surely be more pain..... I'm adding to my oil/gas midstream play, ET....... FINANCIALS have been killing me, constantly, since I bought-in, earlier in '22. Really sucking cow farts. My biggest bite in Financials is in PRISX, TRP. .....Bar Harbor Bank, less so, but nothing to write home about. (BHB.) Still rated "BUY" by the only TWO analysts who bother with it. Regarding my long-time darlings, the big Canadian banks: All are trading at Fair Value (Morningstar) except for CM, at a -13% discount at the moment (Morningstar.) And I still own ZERO in any of them. But if we are in the midst of a "Grand Re-Pricing" event in this moment, now may be a good time to grab me a buncha CM... Decisions, decisions.... What's a mother to do?
  • Crash said:

    There will surely be more pain..... I'm adding to my oil/gas midstream play, ET....... FINANCIALS have been killing me, constantly, since I bought-in, earlier in '22. Really sucking cow farts. My biggest bite in Financials is in PRISX, TRP. .....Bar Harbor Bank, less so, but nothing to write home about. (BHB.) Still rated "BUY" by the only TWO analysts who bother with it. Regarding my long-time darlings, the big Canadian banks: All are trading at Fair Value (Morningstar) except for CM, at a -13% discount at the moment (Morningstar.) And I still own ZERO in any of them. But if we are in the midst of a "Grand Re-Pricing" event in this moment, now may be a good time to grab me a buncha CM... Decisions, decisions.... What's a mother to do?

    Hold tight to financials. The bank always wins in the long run. preferred players, BTO and KBWP.
  • edited May 11
    Are fund firms / brokerages a good buy now? I think they ebb & flow with number of participants and AUM. So are they beginning to bleed yet - or is it still way too early?
  • @Charles Lynn Bolin...enjoyed the recent commentary...resonated with me.

    Charles, how do you feel about putting monies into funds that have a somewhat "black box" dynamic to them...yes, they explain their positions but sometimes I wonder, how safe of an investment are some of these funds?

    I've had my eye on Grant Park Multi (GPANX) for a while now and have stepped in, toes first, testing the waters...other than I bonds, and Tbills, 2 yr treasury, I think this type of fund might be the only way you can scrape up mid single digit returns for the next few years.

    Regarding BLNDX, Standpoint, it's done well YTD but I am concerned the mgr's model might not be picking up quickly enough if there is a trend change, meaning stonk markets really flush, like a limit down day I mean and/or bond yields start moving down and the commodity futures trades turn quickly on him...the 5% down in one day last autumn still holds in my memory and I have reduced my position here....did pick up a bit on PQTAX PIMCO Trend as I'm not certain but my perception (and I could be way wrong) is that their models might be quicker to account for a turn in certain markets and likely less stonk mkt exposure?

    Hold on Palm Valley, PVCMX, nibble position started recently in RPEIX T Rowe Global Dynamic Bondo.

    Continue to shovel in cash into 90 day Tbill, 6 month T bill, 1 and 2 Yr T Notes.

    Safety first, rule1 don't lose money.

    Of course, do what works for you, don't listen to anyone on line like me who does not know anything about anything, I just post here to share what I'm doing and only for entertainment purposes.

    Good Luck to all,

    Baseball Fan
  • Threw in the towel, yes it was a white towel ! Sold TMSRX. I ran out of bourbon !

    I caught an article in Wed. WSJ . It states dippers are still on the loose .
    Data from Vanda Research , 2014 to YTD.
    Thursday , largest buying day on record.
    March, Largest buying month.
    Thinking this buying was from individual investors.

    Now what to think of this ? Any ideas ?

    Have a good evening, Derf
  • edited May 11
    Hi Derf - Welcome to the “Ex-TMSRX” club.

    I just read that same WSJ article. It began by reporting that last Thursday there was a flood of $$ moving into stocks from individual investors on a big dip. Also - that larger institutional investors have pulled back. Have to check - but don’t recall buying much Thursday. Monday I did buy a lot - but scattered across 9 different holdings.

    However, near the end of the same article they say that brokerages are now seeing less trading from individuals. Mentions Robinhood & Webull as reporting lower trading volume lately. So, the article may be contradicting itself or the trend may have changed more recently

    What to think? I thought the undercurrent (unspoken message) in the article was that individuals are too early to buy and taking more risk than they realize. But, others may come away with different interpretations.

  • Regarding BLNDX, Standpoint, it's done well YTD but...............the 5% down in one day last autumn still holds in my memory and I have reduced my position here....
    Baseball Fan

    I felt that pain last year, too. I like the idea of BLNDX, but that kind of move should not happen.

    ATESX is a long-short fund that has done ok in its 4 years (all positive), and its held up pretty darn good YTD. Could be worth a look.
  • edited May 12
    Derf said:

    Threw in the towel, yes it was a white towel ! Sold TMSRX. I ran out of bourbon !

    That's a cardinal sin of trading, investing, teaching, or ... well, anything! You should always have enough bourbon in your hump to last 3 days, just in case! :)

    I'm stalking a few equity positions if they hit my lowball buy points, which may be hit sooner rather than later. Also somewhat intrigued by CGDV, one of the new active ETFs from Capital Group.

    (I bought another large slug of VZ last week, plus sold CNM this week for a slight profit as part of portfolio adjustments.)
  • More oil and natural gas stock and commodities. Tip toeing into more CVX XOP FFCGX

    May add to DBA. I doubt food prices will come down much
  • edited May 12
    Small adds today to PQTAX and AMFAX plus a smallish starter in AHLPX. Sold DBA, last of the pure commodity vehicles I owned; leaving that allocation up to the managed futures guys. Why? They're working in a very tough investing environment.

    @Baseball Fan, I think you've got PQTAX pegged about right. It's had a few rough days here and there, but the bounceback so far has been pretty swift.
  • edited May 12
    rforno said:

    Derf said:

    Threw in the towel, yes it was a white towel ! Sold TMSRX. I ran out of bourbon !

    That's a cardinal sin of trading, investing, teaching, or ... well, anything! You should always have enough bourbon in your hump to last 3 days, just in case!
    If it was a case of either giving up TMSRX or bourbon I think Derf made the correct decision.:)

    Plunked a little more in FLJP. Getting killed by the strong dollar which I don’t think can continue much longer.
  • edited May 12
    Sold out of PRIDX, used proceeds to buy more PRNEX.
    7.63% in energy now. I'll be growing that via ET. Financials are up to almost 35%. PRWCX still =34.91% of total. TUHYX and PRFRX are neck-and-neck at 9.3% each in portfolio.
  • @Crash. I also have a commitment to PRFRX..Divs have declined slightly Jan thru April.. Aren’t they by definition supposed to “float” up with interest rates? And the gentle but steady decline in share price leaves me cold. Not loving this one,,,, which is capable of massive drawdowns too.
  • larryB said:

    @Crash. I also have a commitment to PRFRX..Divs have declined slightly Jan thru April.. Aren’t they by definition supposed to “float” up with interest rates? And the gentle but steady decline in share price leaves me cold. Not loving this one,,,, which is capable of massive drawdowns too.

    you're right. But somewhere I read that the ability to re-price is through a 6-month window of time. I don't completely understand. But I stay in it for the divs. A MM would pay me zilch, eh?
  • Hi Crash. I too invested for the divs but I am having a hard time staying to lose. Based on historical returns the share price is not likely to increase. So if I put the whole pile under my mattress and took out 3.5% every January I might come out a bit better.
  • larryB said:

    Hi Crash. I too invested for the divs but I am having a hard time staying to lose. Based on historical returns the share price is not likely to increase. So if I put the whole pile under my mattress and took out 3.5% every January I might come out a bit better.

    yes, the numbers don't lie. but i want not to be solely in junk bonds, either. that's my other. total bonds in the portf. = 28 percent now.
  • Most floating-rate/bank-loan (FR/BL) securities are low-rated, so they are a subclass of junk/HY. They may have long maturities but their durations are just their rate-reset intervals. Newer and speculative companies favor FR/BL (and convertibles) because the traditional fixed-rate bond market is not accessible to them or the fixed-rates will be quite high. Beware that when rates stop going up, or go down, FR/BL act just like short-term HY.

    This obviously doesn't apply to Treasury floaters, 2-yr FRNs, etc.
  • Yesterday I topped off a position in AAPL and added to BIAWX & BIAYX.
  • Most floating-rate/bank-loan (FR/BL) securities are low-rated, so they are a subclass of junk/HY. They may have long maturities but their durations are just their rate-reset intervals. Newer and speculative companies favor FR/BL (and convertibles) because the traditional fixed-rate bond market is not accessible to them or the fixed-rates will be quite high. Beware that when rates stop going up, or go down, FR/BL act just like short-term HY.

    This obviously doesn't apply to Treasury floaters, 2-yr FRNs, etc.

    Thank you for clarifying, yogi. :)
    @Mark. BIAWX worked nicely for me, back before the pandemic. Good luck with it.
  • Sold-out of my Chilean DAWG (ENIC) on the one day it pops. "Good riddance to bad rubbish." Used the proceeds to add to ET at $10.96. Under $11.00, so I'm pretty happy.
  • Hi @Baseball_Fan . There is a lot of risk in the markets, and some of it reminds me of Tulipmania with high valuations. Bitcoin is now down 35% YTD. Rising interest rates, high inflation, supply chain disruptions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have upended normal investment models. Price to Earnings have begun compressing as they often do during inflationary times with high valuations.

    YTD, my baseline fund, the Vanguard Wellesley Fund, has lost 8%, while the Global Wellesley has done slightly better. Safe haven government intermediate bond funds are down 7% YTD while core bond funds are down 10%. As the markets started swooning, I sold the most volatile and added better performers including real return and commodities. I maintain a balanced portfolio, and am down less than the Wellesley fund.

    I favor low volatile funds, some of which have a tactical, or "black box" approach. I prefer to leave this to the pros to do the heavy lifting for me. I spread the risk across several of the funds so that any individual failure will not impact me much. I limit overall exposure in case of a swan event. I own multi-strategy (BAMBX, TMSRX), multi-alternative/macro-trading (GPANX, REMIX), systematic trend (PQTAX), real return (PIRMX/PZRMX, FSRRX), Infrastructure (GLFOX), along with utilities and consumer staples, all of which have reduced the volatility in my portfolio. I am also researching CABNX. Each has made more (lost less) than the Vanguard Wellesley. I have also increased cash.

    I believe the risk of recession is high for next year. I suspect the markets will calm down in the near term and recover, but expect lower lows over the next two years.

    Best wishes.

  • @rforno, you mentioned adding a large slug of VZ to your existing holding. Any particular reason(s) other than it's steadily boring but also pays a good dividend?
  • Mark said:

    @rforno, you mentioned adding a large slug of VZ to your existing holding. Any particular reason(s) other than it's steadily boring but also pays a good dividend?

    Nope, not really. Unless you want to include that there are only a few dominant communications providers in the country and everyone needs to be linked. :)
  • rforno said:

    Mark said:

    @rforno, you mentioned adding a large slug of VZ to your existing holding. Any particular reason(s) other than it's steadily boring but also pays a good dividend?

    Nope, not really. Unless you want to include that there are only a few dominant communications providers in the country and everyone needs to be linked. :)
    Thank you. I've been tracking it for awhile and it seems to float around in a fairly narrow range, currently at the lower end of it, but finding support each time it gets near it's 52-wk low. I picked up a half position earlier this morning for the reasons you alluded to.
  • Continuing to build these positions: ET and BHB. And initiated a spot in PSTL, a Postal REIT. Hope these Limit Orders will "take" shortly...
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