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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just placed an after-market sell order at Fido :) :)
    There are pre-market (before open) and after-market (after close) sessions. It is a VERY THIN/ILLIQUID market, so use limit-orders. Even reliable quotes are not available. These sessions don't mix with regular sessions, i.e. nothing carries over between sessions. I have used them at Fido and Schwab. Years ago, Fido did require me to listen to several minutes long stuff that the Rep read on phone about warnings and cautions, but that was it. I don't recall Schwab doing anything like that.
    Example - Nasdaq Quotes on TWTR https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/twtr
  • Remember when a 500 point drop in the Dow was a “big deal”?
    That's for sure... I've been thinking the same thing for years now.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/11/22
    @yogibearbull,
    Any thoughts on the following?
    VIX was down yesterday when S&P 500 was down a decent amount. VIX is having difficulty cracking 35 today.
    AAII- S&P 500 has been down about 10% since 4/28 while Bearish sentiment is also down coincidentally about 10% - focusing on the severity of the moves in the same direction rather than the percentage of the move.
    CNN fear and greed index is at 6 - the lowest in a year. (CNN is no longer giving me a long term chart of this but I do not remember seeing this low reading in ten years, except for in March 2020).
    2-10 yr rates have come down about 20 bps in the past week but not collapsing.
    The question I am asking myself is, is the stablecoin fiasco muddling some of the readings and perhaps the contagion is not systemic enough to call a bottom in the stock market?
    P.S.: Senate confirmed Powell for the second term.
  • Matthews Asia ETFs in registration
    I've owned Matthews funds (MAPIX, MAPTX) previously and believed Matthews was an estimable firm.
    Lydia So and Rahul Gupta left the firm in April 2020.
    Tiffany Hsiao, YuanYuan Ji, and Beini Zhou left August 31, 2020.
    These PM departures occurred within a short timeframe which really concerned me.
    I no longer have a high regard for Matthews because of this and mediocre overall performance in recent years.
    @ProtonAnalyst33,
    I was not aware that a private equity firm has an ownership stake in Matthews.
    Do you know when this PE firm initiated its stake?
    Your list of names made me go dig up my notepad! There were other key PM departures: Raymond Deng who was a brilliant up and coming PM on Pacific Tiger and China left for Genesis in 2021. Robert Harvey, lead PM of their frontier asia fund also left in 2021. I recall the first major PM departure that shocked me was Kenichi Amaki, who was lead PM of the Japan fund (left for capital group in 2019). Brilliant investor and had basically been with the firm his entire investment career up until that point. how could they let him go? That was the begining of the exodus it seems and I stopped investing in the matthews funds and started asking more questions. In total, I recall them losing over 10 next gen PMs in the span of 2 years. Scary for an investment team of less than 40!
    There was also that bizarre hiring then resignation of their President and CIO, Yu Ming Wang. The loss of PMs couldn't be attributable to him b/c many occured before he was even brought in. Truly odd and something I've never seen before in my 40 years in the business. https://citywireselector.com/news/matthews-asia-global-cio-exits-after-less-than-a-year-in-role/a1404581
    I believe their new COO also left in less than 2 years, but the PM departures and their profiles (and where they left to) really spooked me.
    Re the PE firm, I googled and found this. I think its Lovell Minnik. This article says they first invested in Matthews in 2011. That's over 10 years of being invested, which is a bit long in the tooth for a PE fund. Seems that supports the "sales mode" the firm has undertaken. I am guessing that fund life is coming to an end, so PE firm must sell sell sell!
    https://www.themiddlemarket.com/news/lovell-minnick-backs-asia-focused-asset-manager
    Something is going on at Matthews and it doesn't seem great for investors. I'd urge everyone to do your diligence.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.

    Regarding BLNDX, Standpoint, it's done well YTD but...............the 5% down in one day last autumn still holds in my memory and I have reduced my position here....
    Baseball Fan
    I felt that pain last year, too. I like the idea of BLNDX, but that kind of move should not happen.
    ATESX is a long-short fund that has done ok in its 4 years (all positive), and its held up pretty darn good YTD. Could be worth a look.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Charles Lynn Bolin...enjoyed the recent commentary...resonated with me.
    Charles, how do you feel about putting monies into funds that have a somewhat "black box" dynamic to them...yes, they explain their positions but sometimes I wonder, how safe of an investment are some of these funds?
    I've had my eye on Grant Park Multi (GPANX) for a while now and have stepped in, toes first, testing the waters...other than I bonds, and Tbills, 2 yr treasury, I think this type of fund might be the only way you can scrape up mid single digit returns for the next few years.
    Regarding BLNDX, Standpoint, it's done well YTD but I am concerned the mgr's model might not be picking up quickly enough if there is a trend change, meaning stonk markets really flush, like a limit down day I mean and/or bond yields start moving down and the commodity futures trades turn quickly on him...the 5% down in one day last autumn still holds in my memory and I have reduced my position here....did pick up a bit on PQTAX PIMCO Trend as I'm not certain but my perception (and I could be way wrong) is that their models might be quicker to account for a turn in certain markets and likely less stonk mkt exposure?
    Hold on Palm Valley, PVCMX, nibble position started recently in RPEIX T Rowe Global Dynamic Bondo.
    Continue to shovel in cash into 90 day Tbill, 6 month T bill, 1 and 2 Yr T Notes.
    Safety first, rule1 don't lose money.
    Of course, do what works for you, don't listen to anyone on line like me who does not know anything about anything, I just post here to share what I'm doing and only for entertainment purposes.
    Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    FBGRX, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth, has actually outperformed TRP’s Blue Chip fund. Also heavily tech and growth names. Just another alternative for “bottom fishing.”
    Thanks for the information
    I have in the distant past owned TRBCX. Was a fine fund 15 years ago. But things change. It fell 3% today putting it down over 33% YTD. If you liked it at the end of 2021, you gotta love it now - at 2/3 the price.
  • Allocation/Balanced Funds, Past & Future - MFO 5/1/22
    @BaluBalu, in the heady days of allocation/balanced funds, some even touted their performance beating SP500 with one hand tied in the back (i.e. 30-40% in bonds). Of course, that claim couldn't be sustained.
    FPURX now is also much different from the past. It used to have value tilt for equities but the new FPURX has been quite growthy for years (VWELX is going through that shift now but it chose a bad time for that). For the time period you looked at, there was no magic but FPURX lost much less than SP500 by 1974 - i.e. it came out way ahead by not losing that much in that bear stretch (1972-74).
  • Allocation/Balanced Funds, Past & Future - MFO 5/1/22
    Using the FPURX 1/1/65-12/31/80 chart from Yogi's post, I shrunk it to start 2/1/1970 and FPURX nearly tripled in the next eleven years and handily beat SPY. Not sure what conclusions one can make without digging deeper as to the workings of FPURX at that time that allowed that type of performance. Even if we know the answers, how can we use those answers to invest now?
  • Allocation/Balanced Funds, Past & Future - MFO 5/1/22
    Have the first five months of 2022 been the worst start to any year for moderate and conservative allocation funds?
    ISTM that while using calendar year boundaries for losses may make sense from a tax perspective, the market doesn't have that same level of respect for the calendar.
    That said, there's an obvious period to look at, albeit one very different from today: the 1930s.
    According to M* (old chart), VWELX lost 29.18% from 12/31/1931 through 5/31/1932. Keep in mind that M*'s data for this period seems to be monthly.
    So one should set the dates to show five steps, at the end of Jan, Feb, Mar, April, and May. For the old chart, that means using a start date of 1/1/1932, while the new interactive chart works with 12/31/1931 as the start date. Either way, 5/31/1932 is the end date.
    1974 was indeed an ugly year, but it took nine months to reach its nadir. Wellington was only off 9% by the end of May. Both 1932 and 1974 differ from 2022 in that our current market decline started this year, while the market had been declining for at least a year prior in the other periods. Our current decline may and probably does have longer to run.
    Wellington declined from the beginning of 1973 through Sept 1974. And it declined from its inception in mid-1929 through the middle of 1932. The former period was a deep recession; the latter the beginning of the Great Depression. The US has yet to enter a recession now.
    While those eras and in particular those years were significantly different from 2022, differences in Wellington then and now are less clear:
    Bogle said that "Wellington Fund has followed the same balanced approach to investing ever since it began operations in mid-1929." And it has paid quarterly divs since 1930.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added to OPGSX which appears to have gone nowhere in a year. Opened small spec position in GLTR which invests an a mix of precious metals. Had a buy order in on DKNG AT $10, but it rebounded after touching about $10.40. Did buy a bit at $11 yesterday. (currently $11.36)
    I like the action in gold having followed it closely for a few years. Near the bottom of a trading range it’s been in for a year or two. Several macro developments may help - including the recent decline in Bitcoin
  • Matthews Asia ETFs in registration
    I've owned Matthews funds (MAPIX, MAPTX) previously and believed Matthews was an estimable firm.
    Lydia So and Rahul Gupta left the firm in April 2020.
    Tiffany Hsiao, YuanYuan Ji, and Beini Zhou left August 31, 2020.
    These PM departures occurred within a short timeframe which really concerned me.
    I no longer have a high regard for Matthews because of this and mediocre overall performance in recent years.
    @ProtonAnalyst33,
    I was not aware that a private equity firm has an ownership stake in Matthews.
    Do you know when this PE firm initiated its stake?
  • Bond Market Expert Shares His Views
    Mr. Grant's outlook has generally been somewhat pessimistic over the years.
    He currently contends that he is not being pessimistic.
    Ptak: "So, maybe turning back to portfolio strategy, if you will, given the fact that it sounds like you're a bit pessimistic on the 60/40."
    Grant: "I wouldn't say pessimistic. I'm trying to be clear sighted. People who are optimistic, because they're wrong are no more helpful than those of us who are pessimistic and wrong."
    Hah, i read this. Pessimistic people never think they are pessimistic.
  • Matthews Asia ETFs in registration
    I've invested with Matthews for decades, but redeemed in the last 5 years as they have lost a lot of key young PMs and next generation management, and investment performance has become mediocre at best (related, the CEO change is long overdue).
    I saw their ETF announcements but was left underwhelmed.
    1) The china strategy managed by andrew mattock is the most benchmark-aware strategy in matthews lineup. The fund only has an active share of 50-60%. So this looks very much like an index fund, but with a much higher expense ratio and performance is middle of the pack.
    2) Asia Innovators used to be called the Asia Science and Tech fund...irrespective of the name change, the PM Michael Oh is the same and the strategy is still...largely an Asia ex Japan tech fund. They are obviously trying to take market share from Kraneshares and KWEB which is one of the biggest Asia ETFs in existence. So not shocked an ETF version is launching.
    3. Matthews Emerging Markets strategy has been around for almost 3 years, but the track record is pretty mediocre and assets have remained very small. Not surprising since Matthews has not hired any real emerging markets staff since launch. I questioned if Matthews was really committed to becoming a true EM manager when they first launched this fund....I am still skeptical. ETF launch doesn't mean anything to me with that performance!
    My big question: Where are the flagship strategies? Pacific Tiger, Asia dividend are noticably absent from the ETF launch. Not even Japan equity? The absence of these major strategies makes me think this is not a move to try and help investors.
    I am of the same mindset as Crash. Matthews has lost its mojo and I've stayed away. They used to be the pinnacle of active management but now their flagship fund Pacific Tiger can't even beat the index! When you see so many young, next gen staff leave for other firms ---> huge red flag that indicates its time to move on. Also, I've heard from people internally that a private equity firm is a part owner and has been trying to cut costs to "beautify" the firm for sale, which hasn't helped with moral.
  • M* -- 2022 Selloff Has Left the U.S. Stock Market Undervalued
    TRBCX (TPLGX) are mentioned at MOFO as a potential buy. M* fund analysis says that the fund's long term manager retired and a new manager took over in October 2021, and that the new manager previously managed only $7B (compared to the asset base in this strategy $160B).
    The fund has lost 35% in total return since its recent high on November 16, 2021. M* charts show $10K invested 3 years ago in QQQ and TRBCX would result in a balance of $17K and $12K, respectively. TRBCX balance is the same as it was pre-Covid (February 19-20, 2020) (i.e., gave up all the gains since beginning of Covid).
    Is the PM change a concern, as in, does he need more time to prove himself?
    Is the large asset base a concern?
    Edit: the fund’s P/E ratio is 31 as of 3/31/2022. At a time when the market seems to have low tolerance for high P/Es, is the high P/E ratio of its constituents ( and thus of the fund) a concern?
    P.S.: the fund is open to new investors.
  • Bond Market Expert Shares His Views
    Mr. Grant's outlook has generally been somewhat pessimistic over the years.
    He currently contends that he is not being pessimistic.
    Ptak: "So, maybe turning back to portfolio strategy, if you will, given the fact that it sounds like you're a bit pessimistic on the 60/40."
    Grant: "I wouldn't say pessimistic. I'm trying to be clear sighted. People who are optimistic, because they're wrong are no more helpful than those of us who are pessimistic and wrong."
  • Bear market coming?
    @WABAC- Thanks so much for your note. I well remember the old Customs Building on Kearny Street- at 18 I first went there to enlist in the Coast Guard; four years later went there to get my FCC license. I loved the LORAN service- after the year at Tarumpitao Point they sent me to another LORAN station up at Point Arena in Mendocino County.
    My folks had a weekend place at Guerneville, which is roughly halfway between SF and Point Arena. I learned to drive on Highway 1, which in those days was typically a 1 1/2 lane "highway" where you were lucky to have a painted line down the center. Great memories, for sure. My four year Coast Guard stint and my final 20 years with San Francisco Public Safety Radio were the most rewarding years of my employment life.
    Semper Paratus.
  • A Case for Small Caps?
    @JonGaltill: I am reluctantly facing the fact that my current SCG funds would have to rally an amazing amount to get me back to level. The arithmetic is against me.
    SCV has had some success, notably Bridgeway’s BRSVX. Charles’ write up on bond, equity, and alternative funds above water this year mentions Aegis Value. The manager looks to be a genius by transforming AVALX into a highly concentrated fund, 71% basic materials and 23% energy; that is not a diversified fund in my mind’s eye. The value equity funds that showed some success YTD all hold big energy positions. My fave, one that did not make the list, is GQEPX, up 6% YTD. It is wrongly classified as a LCG fund by M*, but the holdings tilt towards value.
    The managed futures egg heads really look like geniuses this year; several AQR offerings and PIMCO’s PQTAX are shooting the lights out. However, those are funds I have never considered for purchase because they were real plodders for many years and my understanding of what they do is inadequate. PQTAX holds 40% in the home town commodities fund; will the PMs of these concentrated funds be able to turn their ships around quickly when the prices of « stuff » return to earth? Will alternative funds resume their pedestrian ways when the current crisis wanes?
  • Musk to Buy Twitter
    @ Derf- Even in hot-to-trot California things are dicey. A recent survey found that almost 25% of existing charging stations are either inaccessible or out of service at any given time. By far the larger factor is the installation of home charging stations: how many people are actually going to wait for half an hour or more to charge at some public station? Especially if when they get there they have to wait in line for a charger to become available?
    By the way, the survey that I mentioned did not include any Tesla charging stations- those are not available to the general public- only Tesla vehicles.
    I get the distinct impression that many of the upcoming electric vehicles will start availability in the next couple of years. How many years does anyone think that it's going to take to get a reasonably sufficient charging infrastructure into place? And who exactly is going to pay for all of that?
    None of this should be interpreted to suggest that I'm against the transition- in the long run, it's necessary. But I'm very skeptical that it's going to be a smooth one.
    ☞ Link to article: "California wants more electric cars. But many public chargers don’t work"
  • Bear market coming?
    @Crash- Your pic is eerily reminiscent of my year of isolated duty as an electronics tech at Tarumpitao Point on Palawan Island in the Philippines. The Coast Guard had chains of very high-powered navigation broadcast stations all over the word at that time (1950s/60s), many located in very isolated and remote areas. (Those stations were made obsolete by satellite GPS technology.)
    Certainly one of the best years of my life.