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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FB to be spanked again !?
    It seems that details from Google are more FAVORABLE to advertisers including FB (which SUPPORTS the move). Google's approach will be PHASED in over 2 years and the final result will be TWEAKS rather than ad shutoffs (like new privacy setting opt-IN vs previous opt-OUT by Apple). That is a different picture than the OP subject line suggests.
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    There’s no way I know of to tell what inflation will be in future years. I hope the low-ball theories are correct. Just for the hell of it I ran a calculation using annual compounding and the latest government reported 7.5% YOY inflation rate. That resulted in a doubling of prices in just over 9.5 years. Admittedly, we’re talking about averages here and a basket of different goods and services. Not everything inflates in price at the same rate. Cars are just one component, but a large portion of most household budgets.
    Taking Kelly Blue Book’s end of 2021 average new and used car prices ($47,000 and $28,000 respectively) that would put average car prices 9 years from now at about $94,000 new and over $50,000 for a used one.
    Point? None really. But I think we all tend to underestimate the impact of inflation as it compounds on top of the prior year’s increase year after year.
  • 2022 YTD Damage

    Just a matter of political will. And a reduction of GREED.
    Perhaps using the word Just in this context is akin to waving a magic wand.
    Here is a piece of the puzzle.....Within each nation and among rich and poor nations it is necessary to reach consensus related to "adequately" addressing the wants and needs of present day adult populations while simultaneously adequately setting aside resources to account for the wants and needs of the young and and the unborn. And, related to that, within each nation and among rich and poor nations it is necessary to determine who pays how much to achieve those goals (and then to successfully monitor and to adjust -- when climatic evidence dictates -- those commitments through extended time periods).......sounds like a tall order based on our checkered human history. Perhaps fumbling our way forward over an extended time frame and avoiding the worst possible outcome is likely (this coming from a person who began to advocate for substantially higher gas taxes 50 years ago as a way to reduce fossil fuel consumption and to account for the external costs associated with their use.) Here is a current article about some of what fumbling our way forward may entail over the next 30 years. (Hawaii takes a relatively mild hit in this telling.)
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    @bee you are welcome and yes about 1 yr. The widespread red is a relatively short term event so far. I find it useful to click through the timeframes of this simple chart periodically. About energy, yes, over 5 years it is still in the red. For a few years, energy was considered a poor investment due to the surge in alternative energy investments and the thinking the transition timeframe to alternatives would likely be fairly short. Now, there seems to be some serious thinking that the transition to renewables will likely occur over an extended enough time frame that the traditional energy sector will remain worthy of investment for at least "several" more years. (I know I still own gas powered cars and my primary house still uses natural gas for heat. Also, I still plan to to take some trips via air once my covid concerns have abated and lots of stuff in my house contains "plastic".) I am presently comfortable having about 10% of my investments in that sector.
  • The Economist
    It’s an interesting snippet. Sorta what my humble non-expert view might be. But one who tends to view worst case scenarios. Off and on there’s been talk of “liquidity problems” in the media. Most recently on Bloomberg’s last Wall Street Week show - and addressed to some length by Blackrock’s Rick Rieder. This liquidity talk always makes me nervous as can cause markets to seize up.
    Yes - the long duration assets would be a lot of ARKK holdings. I’ve heard that argument - that rising rates will strangle them. However, they’ve already been choked to death ISTM. So not too sure how much farther down they can go. Wish I were 25 years younger (don’t we all?). Would probably buy some.
    @Old_Joe used to subscribe to the Economist. Not sure if he still does. FWIW - most periodicals can be purchased single issue at Amazon and downloaded to most any device having the app. Subscribing to a free trial period and than cancelling is another way to obtain latest issue.
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    Of course Hunt has been saying that for years. If you want to just read his views in six pages go to the Hoisington Investment Management Company website economic reports 4th quarterly outlook
    https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2021Q4NP.pdf
  • William Blair to liquidate three bond funds
    Something that pops out when one looks at these funds is that they all had management overhauls within the past couple of years. M* lists each fund's average manager tenure as just one year. The former managers of these three funds, Christopher Vincent and Paul Sularz (all but BIFIX) appear to have retired in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
    William Blair rebooted its fixed income program. It hired Ruta Ziverte in 2019 to "develop[] and execute[] [its] fixed-income growth strategy (in conjunction with other members of the team), team leadership, and select portfolio management." (From M*). One might surmise that the company wasn't thrilled with the short term progress and decided to pull the plug on this relatively small corner of the company (no fund with over $300M AUM).
    Until it was shut down in Nov. 2015 the company did have a MMF - Ready Reserves Fund (RRFXX / WBRXX). Kathleen M. Lynch, the new lead manager of WBLIX co-managed Ready Reserves from 2010 until its demise in 2015; the aforementioned Vincent was the lead manager since 2003. The fund's inception was June 22, 1988.
    The Macro Allocation Fund (WMCIX / WMCNX) has been co-managed by the same two people, Singer and Clarke, since its inception in 2011. The fund does not have a manager dedicated to fixed income. Between 2011 and 2016, Singer and Clarke co-managed PMFIX (as part of a team with more senior managers).
  • WhassUp (This Year)?
    @BenWP, short-term nature of futures leads to high realized gains (and distributions) in strong years. There may be some loss-carryovers to offset those. But the ETF structure alone isn't any help in this case.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    Were you asking Fidelity to transfer cash (ACH) from a mutual fund position at T. Rowe Price, as opposed to transferring money from a TRP cash (brokerage transaction/core) account?
    Transferring cash from a mutual fund would trigger a redemption, and for that a paper form might be required. Even in this event, I would expect the transfer of the cash itself to go electronically.
    If that was the situation, you should be able to effect an ACH transfer by directing T. Rowe Price to sell shares (even if the fund is a MMF) and to send the proceeds to your "bank". For Fidelity, you would provide a UMB Bank routing number and Fidelity brokerage account number.
    It's been a few years since I moved cash between Fidelity and T. Rowe Price, but when I did, I initiated the transfers on the TRP side.
  • Bearish on Bonds / a poignant comment …..
    ding. ring that bell.
    I personally find myself in midstream at the moment, wanting to stick to my own plan, after a fashion--- while at the same time feeling the need to adjust, without throwing the plan out the window... I don't want to lose the reduced volatility provided by bonds, but don't want the bonds to drag me down like an anchor, either. Important, I think, to keep a perspective beyond the moment. I've been slightly overweight in bonds for 2-3 years, now... That weighting has kept my (unrealized) losses so far in 2022 from matching the major stock indices. Still not too much pain.
  • Does the National Debt Matter?
    An immigrant, a worker and a banker are sitting at the table with 10 cookies. The banker takes 9 and then tells the worker "watch out, the immigrant is going to steal your cookie".
    The above pretty much encapsulates the policies of one major political party (and it has worked phenomenally well over the past 6 years)
  • WhassUp (This Year)?
    Yes K-1's are more work but I have been using Turbo Tax for years and it handles K-1's like waffles handle maple syrup. Zero problems or issues.
  • WhassUp (This Year)?
    @MikeM: I assume you will receive a K-1 form from DB for the 2021 tax year. I do my own taxes, so I’m curious.
    I subscribe to a stock picking newsletter that has been advocating for DBA and DBC over the last few years. It has turned out be be good advice, but only since the beginning of 2021. You appear to have gotten in at the right moment.
  • Does the National Debt Matter?
    @shipwreckedandalone et al
    A lot of data points at the below link, which hasn't been posted for years at MFO. Clickable internal links at the site for other data. EXAMPLE: top right corner has debt clock time machine that may be selected for other year dates. Other data may be hovered upon to see source, etc. Note: all data presumed accurate.
    U.S. debt clock realtime
  • Does the National Debt Matter?
    Yes it does. In the worst case scenario....rates rise substantially...and buyers of long term debt come to believe their principal may not be returned in 30 years due to already bloated debt levels ....thus they seek higher safety. Last I checked Fed Debt = $230,000 for each US taxpayer plus interest.
  • WhassUp (This Year)?
    Not much as most everyone knows. I reviewed my TIAA account and was surprised to find that the only fund available to me (including the MMF) that is up YTD is Real Estate. Not only is it up about 1.64% YTD, but it clocked +17.8% for the past year. Two years ago my advisor had me dump my modest holding on the assumption that urban RE would suffer permanent damage from the pandemic.
    A quick look at mainstream RE ETFs revealed -8 to -10% losses YTD. QREARX is an interval fund and I believe many of its holdings are commercial properties that TIAA itself owns in part or in whole. Anyone here with RE funds that are up?
  • FPA semi annual
    Also, fiscal years can have any starting and ending date. But if one hitches one's horse to a calendar year, then one is stuck with, well, the calendar year. So the latter half semiannual (calendar) 2021 would thus cover July-Dec 2021.
    Like in this year & day, why can't this be published by 01/01/2022
    Complain to the SEC. Generally these forms are due in paper form 60 days after the end of the periods they cover:
    Form N-30D and N-CSR due to be printed and mailed 60 days following the end of each half-year by investment companies; the EDGAR filing is due 10 days after the actual mailing date
    Form N-Q due 60 days after 1st and 3rd fiscal quarter-end
    https://www.broadridge.com/resource/corporate-issuer/edgar-filing-calendar?
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    Dan Price, CEO and founder of credit card processing company Gravity Payments:
    Coca-Cola: there's nothing we can do, we have to raise prices.
    Also Coca-Cola: our profit is up 65% in a year, we spent $68 billion on dividends / stock buybacks in a decade, laid off 12% of staff in the pandemic and CEO pay went up 70% in 2 years to $18.7M.

    Granularity, and possible decreasing rate:
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
  • More reasons to leave Vanguard
    @sma3: I had a similar experience when I'd had enough and was leaving V. for Fidelity, ~ 8 years ago. Like Sven said, It was an admiral shares fund that caused the problem and held up the transfer. Took days and days and more than a few calls, but I finally got out of there with the cash after selling the fund.
    (To be clear, the problem wasn't the fund transfer itself, it was how long the account was frozen, and how CSRs said it'd be fixed tomorrow or the next day as the days dragged on.)
    Thankfully that was the final act of the Vanguard drama for me.
  • Federal Open Mouth Committee
    Fed’s Brainard Calls for 1% Rate Hike By July
    Feb 10 (Reuters) - “St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Thursday that he has become "dramatically" more hawkish in light of the hottest inflation reading in nearly 40 years, and he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three U.S. central bank policy meetings.
    “Within minutes, Bullard's view became the market's view, with rate futures contracts now fully pricing an increase in the Fed's target range for its policy rate to 1%-1.25% by the end of its policy meeting in June, with some bets on an even steeper rate hike path.”

    Reuters