AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/16/25 Hmm, I think we disagree quite a bit on all that.
I think the extreme pessimism is highly warranted and appropriate now and for the next 3 years, 9 months, if he manages to hold the office to term.
We're only three months in and he's already managed to bring markets and economies to the brink of destruction. And he now had Powell in his cross-hairs in an attempt to save his insane fiscal policies.
With all than, AND having endured his 1.0 act, IMO, we are effectively sitting on a ticking time bomb.
capecod, former major league bond trader, CEF savant, and one of the most legendary investment forum posters of all-time, also has a different take. Though he would likely never invest in a CD, he always has regarded (paraphrasing) "meaningful diversification as investment in anything that guarantees a positive total return."
If I scope all taxable bond OEFs available at Fido, I find there are 1802 splattered over 19 pages. If I sort them by "Worst to Best" performance for example 5 years, I find there are 12.5/19 pages that have TRs of LESS than the APY of my 5-yr CD ladder. 3 years, 15.5/19 pages with TRs LESS than.
That ain't "meaningful diversification" to me.
So, to an investor like me, who regards bonds pretty much as a 4-letter word and at one time, a necessary evil, I decided to AVOID dedicated bond funds after their last great crash, except for some small toeholds in 3 low risk finds that I recently bought with stock sale proceeds.
So basically in the past coupla years I exchanged our dedicated bond fund allocation for a 5-yr CD ladder.
I don't have to "hope" (as, IMO, most average bond fund investor do, yourself of course excluded) for annual TRs of 4%-5% from that sleeve. I don't have to "hope' the bond funds I select will be in the minority of dedicated bond funds that outperform my CD ladder. I get 5+% guaranteed, FDIC'd, with Rolex-clocklike interest payments, and full return of my principal at maturity.
And if history at least rhymes, our CD ladder will outperform over time, over 50% of all bond funds available at Fido. Meanwhile, we will, as always, continue to make our real investment money in stocks.
Maybe I misunderstood you, but if not, how is this strategy NOT investing? By definition, we're committing money to earn a financial return.
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war Observant1, the usual, trash Trump and lots of politics.
The facts: during Trump's first admin: inflation was low, real wages went up.
Biden's admin: highest inflation in 40 years, real suffering among consumers.
The rest is just noise = "It's the economy, stupid"
All politicians lie and exaggerate. Nothing is ever perfect.
The left got extreme and was replaced. Many still can't come to the center.
Biden's admin claimed that the border has been closed for years, and they need more money to handle it. That's a lie you can't ignore.
Trump did it in weeks.
Biden's admin let millions of unvetted illegals come in; thousands were criminals. Trump is cleaning up.
Trump told you what he is going to do: lower taxes, close the border, kick out high-level criminals, and impose tariffs. Eliminating boys playing women's sports. Reducing government/state employees. He is doing it.
Most people understand why Trump is using tariffs and admit the unfair practices. They hate how Trump is doing it. I get it. We tried other tactics, and they didn't work. Give the guy several months, and let's talk. Yes, it is difficult; markets are volatile, and Dems scream murder. What matters is the end result. You start from 30-50-150% tariffs...and you get 10%(and some cases a lot more). That's a win. If you start from 10-15%, you get 2%.
In the past:
Trump asked NATO countries to pay more; they laughed until he told them the US would not support them...and they paid more. That was rude, tough, and unconventional among allies...but it worked.
Putin attacked Ukraine during Obama and Biden, but not Trump.
So, go ahead and scream 3 times daily; the Trump's agenda has been implemented...or...maybe come back to center and join forces with more common sense, as Clinton did.
My main point stands: this thread was a rant about NOTHING.
Lastly, what should you do with your portfolio?
The easy route for most is doing nothing. Invest based on your goals.
I'm a bond trader based on current conditions and did exactly that. No complaints.
BTW, using words like ignorance, pathetic, nazi, crazy tell me a lot about someone.
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war So far we have proved that the dollar fluctuated over the
years. It is still higher than 10
years ago.
I love when people quote economists. These people have been wrong countless times, and most of them are liberal-leaning academics.
You don't need to go far and listen to Nobel Prize, Krugman in 2016 (
link).
Quote: "“So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. "
Here is another article from 2016(
link)
"Donald Trump is a "dangerous, destructive" choice"..."The letter, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, was signed by 370 economists, including eight Nobel Prize winners."
Reality: the economy was great until covid-19 hit. You can see the real wages at
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600QBTW, why didn’t these 370 economists criticize Biden for the highest inflation in decades?
Bond yields leap connected to sell-off Two comments.
Volatility creates opportunities.
Injecting daily politics as a basis for investment analysis isn't a good choice.
Heightened volatility due to massive uncertainty increases the likelihood of a serious
"accident."
It's unwise to ignore the ramifications of executive branch actions which forcefully inject politics
into the business/economic realms.
Excellent post!
Investors who ignore the economic and market impacts of politics for the next 3+
years effectively ignore the extremely heightened risk of their personal financial doom. That is, IF you believe that silly little things like tariffs, Treasurys and Benjamins have any real impact on the economy or markets.
You gotta wonder if certain posters have even heard the term "fiscal policy" let alone know what it means/does.
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war Old_joe.
Another outrage rant about nothing from someone with TDS.
The Dollar has been fluctuating.
In the last 10 years USD/EUR has been from 0.75 to now 0.88.
Wow, Europe is more expensive for American tourists.
I'm flooded.
You should start at least 3 new threads daily with hate or maybe post on the same one, after all, it's all similar.
On the other hand you were never outraged about the highest inflation which is the most harmful thing that I have seen in decades.
Get used to the fact that Trump will be in the news every day -:)
Or maybe you should be outrage by the fact that Biden wasn't in control in the last years, his aids hide him and ran our Gov instead.
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war Oh - It involves much more than the relative value of the dollar vs other currencies on the FX. We’ve had a weak dollar at times during the past 75
years while the reserve status remained intact. I can’t ever remember it being seriously questioned in my lifetime.
As the source
here cited explains, the
reserve currency status has been conferred on the U.S. Dollar since the end of WW II
by other nations largely because of the size of its economy, its ability to issue debt, its respected financial regulatory system, its geopolitical power and - yes - by the stability of the currency. If you told me several of those requisites were in decline, I’d not argue with you, but let’s acknowledge that a somewhat diminished value of the dollar (vs other currencies) by itself is not enough to cause a loss of the reserve status.
Thanks for the linked podcast
@Observant1 / Listened to it partially. I’m a big fan of Reuters and a subscriber.
Investors dodge U.S. dollar and Treasurys, scared by Trump’s trade war @FD1000: Please pay no attention to this information- it obviously has no connection to investing whatsoever.
Below are excerpts from
a current report in The Washington Post:
The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day with more than half of that decline coming this month.
The U.S. dollar is an early casualty of President Donald Trump’s us-against-the-world trade war. The dollar has lost almost 10 percent of its value since Inauguration Day, with more than half of decline coming this month after the president’s decision to lift taxes on imported goods to their highest level since 1909.
The weaker dollar — now near a three-year low against the euro — is bad news for Americans traveling abroad and could also aggravate inflation by making foreign goods more expensive. U.S. exporters, however, should gain.
“The administration’s approach to policy and its lack of transparency in terms of motivations have all led to a distinct sense of unease in financial markets,” said David Page, head of macro research for Axa Investment Managers in London, which manages $1 trillion in investments. “It doesn’t look like what we have been used to in terms of well-thought-out policy.”
Those concerns last week sent investors fleeing from the dollar and U.S. government securities, historically a haven during financial crises. This week, after markets quieted, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed those concerns. In an interview Monday with Bloomberg Television, he said there was “no evidence” that foreign investors were abandoning U.S. assets, saying they had been active participants in recent auctions of government debt.
“The dollar is incredibly entrenched in the global financial system in ways that no other currency is. Importing, exporting, borrowing, hedging, using the dollar for collateral, all of these things that major actors in the international economic system use the dollar for, would be so difficult to modify,” said Paul Blustein, author of “King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency.”
As the president’s enthusiasm for tariffs made the United States look riskier, investments in other markets became more attractive. In Europe, the German government last month abandoned a constitutional borrowing limit and made plans to spend heavily to spur the economy and fund a military buildup, raising growth prospects. China encouraged higher consumer spending to better balance its export-heavy economic model. And Japanese 10-year government debt offered its highest return in 15 years.
Recent gains by the Swiss franc, the euro, Japanese yen and gold, which is up more than 7 percent in the past five trading days, support the idea that investors are looking for new ways to ride out the turmoil unleashed by the president.
Yet for major institutional investors, giving up on the dollar is not feasible. The $28 trillion Treasury market is the world’s largest and most liquid, meaning that investors can quickly sell their holdings if they need to raise cash. In contrast, there are only $1.4 trillion in German government bonds outstanding. Alternative currencies likewise fall short. The Chinese yuan is assuming a greater role in global commerce. But the Chinese government does not allow capital to move freely across its borders, meaning investors could find their funds trapped.
The euro also is handicapped. Nations that use the euro share a central bank in Frankfurt, which governs the zone’s monetary policy. But they lack a common fiscal authority akin to the U.S. Treasury and a common bond market.
Even if the era of global dollar supremacy survives the trade war, the currency’s short-term outlook might be poor. Trump’s imposition of widespread tariffs has made a recession more likely, economists say, which could hurt stock prices and prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That would make investing in dollar-based assets less appealing.
FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M* That is not an accurate comparison. VWINX focuses on income (bonds) as the primary objective, and capital appreciation (stocks) as the secondary objective. Holding more long bonds is Wellington choice. FPACX is the other way around, and cash is treated as their tactical position.
When LC tilting growth beat value for 15
years, many claimed it's not an accurate comparison instead of admitting their selection did that.
FPACX beat VWELX (similar % in stocks) by over 60% in the last 5
years: 90+% vs 56+%.
If you invested in VGIT=treasuries in the last 10
years, you made just over 1% per year.
My point about VWIAX is the fact that even with 20% less in equities, PFACX did a much better job in general because performance was 3+ times better.
See chart of all 3 funds (
https://schrts.co/KjQvIJBP).
Oakmark International Funds OAKIX annual returns were often inconsistent.
It wasn't uncommon for 1 yr., 3 yr., and 5 yr. fund category returns
to alternate from top decile to bottom decile and vice versa.
I haven't paid close attention to Oakmark funds for quite some time.
I just checked OAKIX and noticed it hasn't been doing well in recent years.
OAKIX returns in 2022 and 2024 were in the bottom 5% of the Foreign Value category according to M*.
I have an article about Morningstar's International-Stock Fund Manager of the Year nominees in 2013.
Here's a snippet which references David Herro and Oakmark International.
"Herro is no stranger to internationally minded investors.
He won the 2006 Morningstar International-Stock Fund Manager of the Year award
and also received Morningstar's Manager of the Decade prize for international funds in 2010.
Herro has been running this fund, on his own and with comanagers, since its 1992 inception,
and its long-term record is certainly attention-getting.
It hasn't slowed down, either: Oakmark International has ranked in the top 3% of its category
in four of the past five calendar years.
Not surprisingly, money has poured in, and the fund now has $28 billion in assets."
Note: I've previously owned OAKIX (exited July 2014).
Oakmark International Funds Yikes, as a former OAKIX shareholder I recoil at the description of Herro as a "renowned investor." I think we can all see who drove the out-performance of the fund many years ago by comparing OAKIX with ARTKX.
FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M* The expense ratio is something that many have complained about for decades. You can't argue too much about it until you find the exceptions, and that's the problem.
Funds like PRWCX,PIMIX proved it for
years within their categories. I never cared how the manager invests; I only care about results.
I used to treat my portfolio as an NBA team, the best 5 players play. I don't care if one used to be a star; if he isn't now, I replace him. This process makes sure my team goes to the playoffs almost every year.
But, looking at 5
years shows that FPACX made 3+ times as much as VWIAX. See chart (
https://schrts.co/dshhyMyg) and that includes the expense ratio. Sure, FPACX has more stocks but VWIAX can't hide behind these numbers with about 20% less in stocks. This is where flexible manager earns his fees.
FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M* @larryB - I get it. I used to ignore active funds; then funds with er’s over .5%. Now in retirement I find I want an active fund manager(s) to conservatively manage a part of my investment. FPACX’s data is compelling:
- ~60% in equity (Domestic & International) even though our portfolio only holds 35% in equity
- all 3 managers eating their cooking to the tune of $1m+
- 5-yr upside/downside capture ratio 116/81 (pretty good blood pressure)
- top ranked returns 3 of last 4
years.
- and cash right now paying over 4%, I like that they’re looking to invest in their best ideas.
So for now, I’m looking to continue investing here.