This job report released today is the main cause of the spike in rates.
Story
ISTM the Fed’s control farther out (10 years) is minimal. Simply jacking up the overnight lending rate (which has been signaled in advance) could have the opposite impact on the 10-year bond if it causes investors to think the economy is about to slow. They might actually sell equities and buy bonds for protection. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds or begins to sell off their huge existing balance sheet that should cause longer rates to rise, as there’d be a larger supply of bonds looking for new owners.
It’s worth considering the effect on various types of hybrid funds. Balanced or allocation funds holding longer dated bonds will suffer inordinately. So will many hedge-type funds. Funds like TAIL (I own), SWAN, and DRSK invest mainly in bonds (around 90% of their assets). The remaining roughly 10% is used for options trading designed to protect against equity market downside.

If one could reliably predict that variance (1.51%) 10 years in advance (as in the case of fixed rate mortgages) I’d be moved.
But I don’t know how to forecast that far out. I find the two funds’ returns over a full decade remarkably similar considering all the unknowns that exist over that long a period. I’ll continue to hedge my bets by holding both in roughly equal amounts. Should those past numbers hold into the future, I’ll see a difference (loss) of roughy $2,150 over the next decade for every $10,000 invested. Averaged out over 10 years that’s approximately $215 per year or 60-cents a day on a combined $10,000 investment - the added cost of spreading out risk.
Great number crunching from everyone. The visual from @Observant1 is very impressive.
Afraid I couldn’t even name the current manager of DODBX today. (Low in celebrity status). Am aware that fund may soon be undergoing some revision by D&C.

The ten year numbers are also the difference between a 197% cumulative return and a 240% one. Both calculations are correct, just a difference in perspective, one cumulatively from the initial investment, and one the percentage of difference—14.4%—between the end investment numbers. For a $10,000 investment, it would be the difference between a $34,000 end investment after ten years and a $29,700 one. The more money you invest, the worse those differences seem.

Thanks for the fact checking. Remember the old Avis commercial from the 70s?
“We’re #2. So we try harder!”
In another year after DODBX has pulled ahead for 10 years, please run those numbers again.

I'm fairly certain the difference between a 13.01% annualized return and a 11.50% one over ten years is more than 14.4% cumulatively, more like 40 percentage points if this is correct: https://investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator I think it is the difference between a 239% cumulative return and a 197% cumulative one from the base investment, although I'm tired and my math could be off.

To say “Over 10 years, it leads DODBX by only 1.5%” annualized and assume that is a small amount I would suspect misunderstands the power of compounding. But I haven’t done the math in this case.

For 15 years PRWCX outperforms DODBX by 2.44% PER YEAR, that's a substantial difference.
9.87% vs 7.43%.

One of the things I’ve noticed on MFO Premium and Morningstar results is anything with technology held up well in 2020 and has skewed volatility rankings when searching for something less volatile lately. It’s probably skewed things for 10 years, but doesn’t look like it will work going forward if this trend continues.

:(

PRWCX down -1.16% today.

I don’t care if PRWCX is up or down. Just tired of Giroux being worshiped at the alter!
Over 10 years, it leads DODBX by only 1.5%. The gap has been narrowing for a year or more. And DODBX did slightly better today.
10 year performance from Lipper as of yesterday:
PRWCX +13.01%
DODBX +11.50%
Not to trash PRWCX (I own it). Just don’t believe in hero (or fund) worship.

Yes but think of how much they've gone UP over the past many years.....
But sadly mass-market psychology (and/or lack of experience) doesn't always understand that context.

@Derf- I don't understand your suggestion of a connection between Apple, Amazon, and Google. While we don't use a smartphone or Kindle, we do use Apple desktops exclusively, Firefox browsers, and do purchase from Amazon very frequently.
On those platforms we've had no problems of any kind. As a matter of principle for at least fifteen years I've done everything possible to avoid use of any service offered by Google, as it was evident to me many years ago where this whole tracking/privacy/advertising thing was headed.
With respect to Amazon, certainly there's a great deal of search operation within Amazon itself when you're looking for various products. I have no idea if Amazon does all of that itself, or possibly uses Google or some other search provider to help power it's internal searches. In any case, I've never experienced any suggestion of a connection to me as an Amazon customer and Google.
As a general comment on the whole tracking/privacy/advertising issue, we have never joined any "social" organization such as Meta (nee "Facebook") which on the face of it has absolutely no reason for existence other than to abuse user privacy for financial profit. Immense profit, at that.

Buffett’s original advice (quoted by @bee) was initially offered 8-10 years ago as I recall. Go back and check the major indexes than (much lower). But I won’t dispute that he probably still adheres to the recommendation made when he was a youthful 82 or 83.
And we did “bat that one around” quite thoroughly here 8-10 years ago when it was first announced. Geez - would have been sometime in the first 2 or 3 years of MFO’s existence. Thanks @larryB for posting the question. All of us can reflect / learn from this.
For continuation of thread …

Gentlemen: Thanks for the thoughtful replies. As far as using WB as a model that has to be a non starter for most seniors. A 90 % equity allocation ? Everyone has a different set of circumstances. As for us, our withdrawal rate is essentially zero and I have no need to maximize returns. I do, or will have a need to simplify our already simple portfolio at an equity position close to our current allocation. Thanks again for responding.

@Mark -- the metaverse is more than a name change or re-brand as i understand it. Zuck has been working for sometime on related projects (oculus). I don't think it's smoke and mirrors.
That said, i struggle to see the allure of a all-encompassing virtual reality platform (although i had a junior colleague tell me few years ago that many of her peers were actively planning to live the majority of their lives in the virtual world).

Apparently images are not supported on this site. It was to show that TRP has no 1099's for my account (for 2021, or any other year). Yeah, I feel like this is beating a dead horse! I sent them one final message:
Even though you claim to support 7 years of tax forms and statements, I cannot view ANY 1099's (including 2021), and viewable statements end on 7/31/20. I received my 2021 1099-D in the mail last week. What is going on at TRP? I'm beginning to worry about the safety of my investment with you!

Wow. Who isn’t thinking about that? Depends so much on somebody’s situation. I tend to worry a lot. So I’ve long contemplated that the worst possible “1-2 punch” in retirement might be: (1) loose half or more of your invested assets in a market crash and than (2) get hit with very high inflation for the next decade. That’s not a prediction. Just a worst case scenario, Like I said, I worry a lot.
I’ve heard good things about Wellesley on the board over the years. It appears to be moderate risk with a beta according to Lipper of .38. I’d guess my own do-it-yourself portfolio (age 75) right now to have a beta somewhat lower than that - but have never attempted to measure it. At Lipper / Marketwatch, clicking on “Risk & Return” ” tab brings up a fund’s beta - one measure of volatility.
I think your thinking in terms of late life portfolio positioning is on the right track Larry. As far as the cognitive issues, it’s an area I can’t offer any insights on. I work out daily, eat a healthy diet, etc. etc.

“It may be that there is no such animal as a good ex-US allocation fund because no single manager, playing the role of Mr Giroux, could cover all the bases, international investing being so complex.”
1. How many international developed markets have outpaced the U.S. since PRWCX opened in 1986?
2. What are the odds a manager would have successfully guessed which markets in advance?
As an owner of PRWCX since the mid 90s I’m always a bit mystified by its ability to draw assets. Recall old line about how “past performance does not guarantee future return.” (sacrilege I’m sure)
PRWCX itself is somewhat of a “moving target”, having evolved from a conservative mid-cap focused and less risky alternative for those investors who wanted something more tranquil than Price’s (much larger) most ubiquitous and highly successful fund, PRFDX, in those years. Without checking, I’m confident the average market cap of its holdings has increased steadily as the AUM has spiraled upwards.

@david - tks
Here is the two part exercise I did
(1)Screened for international funds older than 5 years, Sortino > 2 and APR > 10. PRWCX Sortino and APR for past 5 years are 2.33 and 15.2 respectively
(2)Run a correlation matrix on the result set with PRWCX
The highest correlated are
WCM Focused International Growth Inst (0.87)
Brown Capital Management International Small Company Inst and WCM International Small Cap Growth Inst both tied at 0.85

I scanned for funds with high five-year correlations to PRCWX and high international exposure. I'm not arguing for or against them, but I'll note the Pax Sustainable Allocation (PAXWX, formerly Pax World) and Fidelity Advisor Multi-Asset Income (FAYZX) have correlations in the 90s with TRP and double-digit exposure to international equities. Both are lower vol / lower return (12% APR vs 15% for TRP) over the past five years but the correlation implies the possibility of some comparable thinking.
The oddball is Prospector Capital Appreciation, which was launched by TRP Cap App's long-time manager (Richard Howard, who left after 7 years) to be a more nimble version of the fund. Fairly high correlation (93) and slightly more international, but distinctly weaker performance (50% greater volatility, 50% lower Sharpe, trailing by 350 bps).
And yes, I am supposed to be writing two lectures for tomorrow's first-day-of-term classes. (sigh)

Has anyone an idea of what's going on at TRP? They don't respond to messages, and I'm not getting on the phone merry-go-round. Although I received my 2021 1099 in the mail last week, it's still not posted online. Even though they say I can view seven years of statements and tax forms, they don't have ANY tax forms, and the last viewable statement was 7/20. Did they have a fire or some other disaster that we're not hearing about?