The CME report is very informative on the terminal rate of 5.25 - 5.50% !
Yields are getting quite attractive, yields near 4.5+% now. Potentially it will get over 5%+ and would make them competitive to stocks and bonds in coming years.

By the way, last week I bought a 2-yr CD with call-protection (4.7%) from Morgan Stanley. CDs are getting more rewarding now. When they reach 5-6%, they become more attractive than stocks and bonds in coming years.
Also treasuries are catching up to the CD yield. One year treasury is yielding 4.72% as of Wednesday evening. The 3 mo, 6 mo and 9 mo Treasuries are higher than the CDs of the same duration.

@sven
It depends on your views of inflation. At 70, while I was not investing at the time, I am old enough to remember "Stagflation" in the late 70's and 80's. My wife and I thought we had it made in "Dreyfus Liquid Assets fund" that paid 14% (?). We didn't realize Treasuries paid 15% and if we had bought them we could have held them for 30 years.
Anyway, if you think this will be an ordinary recession/ deflationary scenario then buy long term bonds.
IF you think inflation is currently being driven by many external factors (ie war, Russia, etc) and the Fed will be unable to control it, would stay in short term bonds and cash and even in oil and commodities.
Personally, I am still largely in cash and short term bonds, but buying some ten year Munis and Treasuries in case interest rates do drop.
I am overweight in Energy and Commodities especially agriculture ( DBA and MOO ). Longer term I expect rare minerals and stuff used in electric vehicles and clean energy will do very well. Most of these stocks have crashed along with all the other high PE stuff, but they may bounce back quicker than AMZN, MSFT and of META

Excerpts from M* article posted 10/31.
"And sometimes, autocracy risks can even render an investment’s value almost worthless overnight. Last year, the profitability of Chinese tutoring firms was placed at risk by a government order forcing all such companies to register as nonprofit organizations. Since January 2021, ADRs of TAL Education Group (TAL) have lost 93.9% of their value, while those of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU) are down 86.7%."
“'Increasingly, what you’ve been seeing over time is that the government of China is not hesitant to stick its hands in public companies’ positions,' says Daniel Sotiroff, senior manager research analyst at Morningstar. Sotiroff also points to the failed IPO of Ant Group—Jack Ma’s financial-technology company owned partially by Alibaba (BABA), set to be the largest IPO in history—as an example of government regulations affecting the markets. Just hours before the planned debut, Chinese regulators suspended the offering on the basis of new regulations."
“'China has been the fastest-growing economy for years, by a long shot,' Sotiroff says. Since 1992, China’s gross domestic product has risen from $426.9 billion to $17.7 trillion—that’s growth of over 4,000%. 'And for a while, the stock market did grow, but it never really turned into great performance compared to other markets.'”

Link

When a fund manager is making more, in aggregate, than a fund's investors that sends up all sorts of red flags for me.

The same can be said for almost every actively managed bond fund manager in the last three years, thanks to this year's terrible performance, yet most investors think bonds, and often active bond funds, are worth owning. Still, I agree fees are too high in general in the active world.

I'm in agreement with @Ben. For my money (and Ms Geritz has none of mine), I would have preferred to read about specific stocks owned by the two funds and why investors haven't made a nickel since Rondure's inception. I think we get enough macro-economic analysis in print and in electronic media. Fund managers ought to tell us why we need their expertise and how they deployed their skills in concrete ways.

This is on point. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see why the world needs another fund company with, apparently, a grand total of around $200m in AUM (after five years in business) which doesn't even count as a drop in the bucket. Seems more like some kind of vanity project.

@sma3 : " I haven't trusted these guys for several years since they retroactively changed the price of a fund I sold a week or two later, in their favor "
I didn't know a MF could do this. Would it be possible to explain more on this rip-off ?

Does this mean that only those who purchase after Oct 31, 2022 get the benefit of the 41 bp fixed rate addition? The rest of us get only 6.48%.

Yep! The fixed rate at purchase remains forever (well, 30 years).

I haven't trusted these guys for several years since they retroactively changed the price of a fund I sold a week or two later, in their favor

@msf- sleeping dogs and all that stuff... :)

Yeah, I know, and I thought about it. But this strikes me as that rare, real win-win situation.
Contrast it with something like NTF (aka "free") fund transactions. When NTF trades were introduced, we were told that it was a win-win. Fund companies had significant account servicing costs. Brokerages were designed to provide those same services for less (economies of scale, core business, etc.). So the fund companies would make more money by outsourcing and investors would get more convenience.
That was likely true decades ago, with paper statements, paper application forms, paper checks, etc. But as servicing got cheaper and as the brokerages raised their fees (I think they started at 25 basis points and are now around 40 basis points), this became a big win for brokerages and a loss for investors.
Or contrast with "money back" annuities. These are annuities where, after so many years, if you don't annuitize you get your initial investment returned. "Free"? Hardly. You're paying with opportunity cost over many years.
With CDs, one can reasonably argue that buying through a brokerage is a win-win. You do effectively give up the ability to redeem early, but there are also some CDs sold at banks that are even more restricted. They don't permit early redemption, period. That's even worse than the brokered CDs, which at least purport to have a secondary market.

Thanks for the link.
China is far from out of the wood. Wuhan is having another COVID outbreak. China lacks effective vaccines and implementation program that will continue to impact their economic growth. This draconian zero-tolerance policy does not work for industrial countries.
https://theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/27/china-locks-down-part-of-wuhan-nearly-three-years-after-first-covid-case-emerged
Several months ago, China wants to buy Moderna’s vaccine but also want Moderna to reveal their trade secret within their patents. And Moderna said “NO”. Moderna already has many orders for boosters from many part of the world.
https://reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-refused-china-request-reveal-vaccine-technology-ft-2022-10-02/

Well, the analogy to new cars is interesting. I'd guess that any "product" that continually changes in original cost and of which there is an almost unlimited supply will always rapidly fluctuate in perceived value as the market moves up or down. Why buy a used one if you can get a new one at the same or even better price?
As msf and others have noted, if you buy a bond or CD do so with the sole perspectives of overall safety and how much income it will generate over it's lifespan. The intermediate pricing of the instrument is just noise.
Another way to look at this is to compare to fixed mortgages. For the mortgage issuer, the perspective is similar- the issuer is concerned with safety (your ability to repay the mortgage) and how much income it will generate over it's lifespan.
At various times in my life I've made good money in second mortgages. Pretty much the same perspective- ability of the borrower to repay, intrinsic value of the property, and income generated over the second-mortgage lifespan. During that lifespan (typically a couple of years) it's "resale value" is likely nonexistent, as there's really no resale market for second mortgages.
With an FDIC CD, just find one with a rate and duration that works for you, buy it, then forget it.

@LewisBraham: thanks for that comment, with which I agree. The country risk seems to be ratcheting up. Among a number of very troubling developments over the past couple of years, Xi’s ouster of those politicians who represent a threat to him was vividly captured on a video analyzed by The NY Times this week. Forget traditional respect for one’s elders in Xi’s China, just have the previous leader removed from his seat at the side of the Chairman by cooperative underlings.

https://www.seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/security-over-growth/
Glad to have that available, LB. Thank you. Foster writes with precision, even eloquence, if I may say so. I was in his fund several years ago and left it after disappointing returns. Surely, it was not all his fault. He is as sharp and smart as can be.

If inflation stays elevated and above the CD yield, you are still losing unless you own IBond.
Still it is nowhere near as bad when the bond index fund this year, -16% YTD. You are indeed doing very well to stay positive this year while many of us are not as lucky. The CD yield will climb as long as the ST rate continues to rise. Sometime next year it may get above 5-6% yield and it become very attractive to lock in at higher rates for several years. You can also consider a CD ladder would cover all the base.

I use Schwab Brokerage exclusively and they offer a wide array of CDs, at very good rates. You do need to be careful about the "Call" feature, as it is easy to overlook that possibility of getting a callable CD. I bought a Schwab CD in May of this year, and it got called in September. Fortunately, I was happy this occurred as it was paying 2.1%, and after getting back $200k that I originally invested, I was able to reinvest it in new CDs paying 4% and 4.25%. I can't speak to Fidelity or Vanguard, but I suspect they have similar offerings. I am looking forward to several other short term CDs maturing in the next few months, and I anticipate reinvesting it a short term ladder when that occurs. I have not ruled out shifting some CD money to bond oefs in the future, but I am not expecting the bond oef market returning to total return strength in the near future. Just as side note, I am able to hold almost all on my cash in money market funds at Schwab that pays about 3%. for liquidity purposes. I am retired, 74 years of age, and I am loving the higher CD rates for investments.

I am loving the higher CD rates--just bought a 6 month CD at 4% and a 9 month CD at 4.25%. I have several other CDs maturing at the end of this calendar year and in the early part of 2023. Owning CDs have allowed me to have a positive Total Return YTD. I am retired, in mid 70s, and I focus on shorter term CDs, which pay a monthly yield, and the predictable yield allows me alot of opportunities for what I want to do with the investments. As far as what I expect in the future, I fully expect another .75% rate increase in November, and possibly another .75% rate increase in December. For 2023, I still expect rate increases, but smaller and less frequently. I fully expect to get 1 year and longer CDs, with interest payments at 5% or more by the end of this calendar year, and I think they will go up closer to 6% in 2023. Since my retirement total return objectives have been 4 to 6% for several years, I find CDs as a no risk opportunity to achieve my retirement performance goals, with minimal stress and risk.

Derf,
Yes, I converted my taxable Vanguard account to a brokerage account years ago.

bought 2 year CD at Fido yesterday 4.7 % from Goldman Sachs. I am staying away from Ally bank, Discover and unknown banks
I had a couple of CDs go bust in the 1980s. Eventually got my money back but it takes a while
extending maturities out to 5 years would lock in rates, but if you hope to sell above par, probably better to buy bonds, I would think.
If interest rates drop implies inflation is under control. The question is will it require a recession and negative growth to get there?

BAC - 24% YTD
APPL - 19% YTD
BRK - 12& YTD
Does diversification work ? Looks like over YTD it does.
Have a good day, Derf

YTD? Look at the last 10 years and see why you needed only APPL.
I'm talking more about wider range funds, not single stocks.