Small-caps at all? Looking for some guidance here. As previously mentioned, I hold MSSMX and WAMCX and they have underperformed in 2021: 5.78 and 5.46. I noted
@gk3105gklm comment about how he traded out of them as they are “ex champs”. Wondering what prompted that and when?
Running MFO premium for CSMCX FCPGX MSSGX WAMCX and NEAGX and it’s clear that MFO also dropped my two funds to a 1 and 2 rating in 1 year performance.
Side Note: Wouldn’t it be great to have MFO alert you when a fund in your watch list or port dropped in overall rating? Valueline did that. Would it be in time or advantageous?
The rating drop was deserved based on this
years performance. Sure. These two funds have highest risk in 1 and 3 year as well. 10 yr performance, MFO still doesn’t like MSSGX in terms of overall rating. It’s rated a 2 for 10 yr.
I don’t recall that when I first evaluated. 20 year it’s a 5. FWIW: M* ratings based on past performance remain unchanged 5*.
NEAGX is rated 5 for all periods. Wondering why this fund didn’t make my screening process. I’m still reviewing this.
While I’m deciding whether to stay or make a change with these two funds, I’m equally as interested in learning how to better evaluate an exit or change. Not a momentum trader. “Consistent Underperformance” is somewhat subjective, no? Is that 1 year or 2
years if there’s been no change to mgmt or underlying fund strategy change. It could be what
@BenWP said… just some bad choices in high flying small caps. What makes me confident that they will correct?
I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is “Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now.
We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.”
Although the 5 year average annual return (as of 12/31/20) for ARKK was 45.40%,
it seems improbable that the fund will compound annually at ~40% over the next 5 years.
I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is ...ya...so in the past couple weeks I rec'd back about a 1/4 of my investment in IQDAX, Infinity Q fund...hopefully within the next 2 years after the lawyers and their firms get paid I get another 1/4 back...if I do, I'll consider myself lucky.
Done learnt an expensive financial investing lesson as my hard lesson was monitized. Alledged fraud by the fund mgr who was "adjusting" the NAVs as he felt was appropriate. Alledgedly.
I still think at the end of two years our, I will have taken less of a hair cut that this dumpster fire of a fund, ARKK etc. Someone commented several months ago, ya, at least Wood isn't a crook and if you lose money with her you lose it legit. True that but net, net, fraud, inexperience, marketing charlatan...your checking acccount and spending power doesn't know.
If rates do go up, and personally I think Powell might try and then all kinds of volatility will happen, her funds will really get smacked...who sung the song..."you, ain't seen nothing yet"....BTO? Bachman Turner Overdrive...baby. baby....ya ain't seen nothin'yet....
Best,
Baseball Fan
I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/cathie-wood-says-ark-soul-searching-as-once-stellar-funds-lag?sref=3zYETA5s
The $17.8 billion ARK Innovation ETF has tumbled more than 20% this year, with several of its top holdings like electric-vehicle giant Tesla Inc. and video-streaming platform Roku Inc. down from their peaks. During the same period, the S&P 500 Index climbed about 24%.
“I’ve never been in a market that is up -- has appreciated -- and our strategies are down,” Wood said in a Thursday interview with Bloomberg Television. “That has never happened before.”
Wood says her funds are sticking to their plans even after the rough stretch, and that their models forecast big returns in the next half decade.
“Our strategy is our strategy,” she said. “The opportunity in our strategy is huge right now. We expect a compound annual rate of return of roughly over 40% over the next five years.”
“When we go through a period like this, of course we are going through soul-searching, saying ‘are we missing something?’” she said, adding that in response, Ark has doubled down on its research and modeling.
What does the good book say--pride cometh before...
Updated MFO Ratings and Flows Thru April ... FLOW Updates Daily Usually, I track maximum drawdown across market cycles or other periods of interest, but I found looking by calendar
years fun.
Most
years, investors in the S&P 500 can expect drawdowns as much as 10%.
More details
here.
Climate change Investing - Climate change is real and extraordinarily dangerous to the future of humanity and the planet itself. Yet this long-short vehicle you mentioned does not sound like a good fund. Part of the reason is the difference in time horizons between Wall Street and a phenomenon like climate change. Wall Street investors are short-sighted and only think at best generally about the next quarter while climate change is a slow moving train wreck that has taken decades to unfold. The private sector is ill-equipped to fight climate change because of its own short-sightedness. A company that might offer a technological solution years down the road with R&D will not receive the patience it needs from Wall Street to deliver that solution. Meanwhile, a company that is actively hurting the planet and could ultimately facilitate its destruction could have a good quarter and thus have strong performance. Neither the long side nor the short side may work here. The better option for investors is to starve the worst offenders of capital while trying to change the less worse offenders via shareholder activism. The best option for citizens is to encourage greater regulation of the private sector to fight climate change and global cooperation in hitting emmission goals. Regarding funds fighting the good fight in climate change, Green Century Balanced (GCBLX) holds no fossil fuels companies and is very active filing resolutions to change companies. It is conservatively managed.
Drawdown Plan in (Early) Retirement For what it’s worth, we are spending much less in retirement so far than 4% annually. COVID has made it difficult to meet our spending “goals” because it’s so difficult and risky to travel, eat out and participate in other forms of entertainment. In January, I will have been retired 5 years and my wife 7 years, and we have yet to spend one dime of our retirement savings. We’ve been getting by just fine from our pensions, my wife’s social security and modest withdrawals from taxable savings. I’m holding off drawing from my SS because so far we simply haven’t needed it.
Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile..... Since the start of the Covid pandemic, hospitalizations/deaths follow a wave of infections by about 2 weeks or so. This has happened several times over the past 2 years in the earlier 4 waves. By mid-January, we'll have a pretty good idea of the scope and severity of this most current wave. Since many healthcare facilities are struggling currently with capacity, it may get ugly. The conversations where I live is, don't get sick....with anything. There might not be a bed for you.
So...I'm actually a bit surprised the markets have held up as well as they have given the widespread nature of this most current, the 5th wave. January may be bumpy. I hope not.
Is there a site that tracks fund buys/sells over time? SEC/Edgar fund reports (semiannual, annual) would have that info going back several years, but the manual retrieving and analysis process can be cumbersome.
Many funds post holding reports but the new ones replace the old ones.
Barry Ritholtz’s 12 Investing Tips @bee - Thanks for linking the list of Barry’s mistakes. Nice to see that 2016 was
“apparently without any flaws”. I thought it interesting that he makes a big deal about his errant call on BREXIT and related matters. Kind of runs contrary to his stated aversion (Item #2) to making predictions.
I could write a book about all the things I’ve got wrong. Nearly killed the goose with an ill-advised bet on an Oppenheimer commodities fund couple decades ago. And, like some others here, I invested in HSGFX in its early
years. Abandoned that one before too much damage was done. Just 2 of many missteps over a 50+ year investing history.
-
PS - I think the hardest lesson for me to learn is not to “
double down” on a failing investment. Often that simply compounds the problem. A one-way street!
What moves are you considering for 2022? I suspect we are now beyond the 2020 crash rebound period, and I think we will have to accommodate more rising interest rate impact. I don't have strong predictions about particular funds, but I am expecting bond oefs like IOFIX will come back down to earth and have more "normal" returns.
Today’s 3 cent gain continued a recent pattern of outsized gains one to two trading days before ex dividend date. This is the reverse of the pattern in effect prior to 2020. Their portfolio is trading around 96 cents on the dollar up considerably from the 60 to 80 cents since 2017. So I agree its best days are behind it and thinking 2022 may only see a 4% to 5% total return. Hopefully I am dead wrong. Can’t think of many or any bond fund that had such a stellar return this year. The managers feel the fund has another 25% to 30% before the legacy non agencies play is over. I would probably cut those numbers in half if only because fund managers in general tend to be overly optimistic. Sure has been a unique and special bond fund over the
years and if one was able to sidestep the carnage in March 2020 and return the following month.
