Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    @PressmUP I'm a similar style investor - I'd say I'm 85% in quality dividend equities and equity funds (mostly individual stocks, though) held for the long haul. What little FI I hold is either stuff from 40-ish years ago I was given as a child or included in some of my funds. I may hold short-term treasuries from time to time just to put idle cash away for a while, too
    I'll run numbers in another week or so, but while I'm down for 2022 as well, I've still done better than the broader indices, which is fine by me.
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    Rules for claw-backs under bankruptcy are complicated. It depends on intent, purpose and parties involved. Although 2 years is often mentioned in the media, the range be 90 days to multiple years.
  • What’s Wrong at the New York Times
    .... Like Chris Hedges, now Rev. Chris Hedges, as of a few years ago. (Presbyterian Church-USA.) And then the Times dumped him because he didn't toe the line on the Israeli occupation of Palestine. In my opinion, he and Matt Taibbi are two of the best.
  • Barron’s Posts past year’s “Winning Record” (stock picks)
    Agree with @MikeM that stocks are tough for small investors. Long term, personally, I’ll take good low-cost actively managed funds over anything else. I presently have only 4 stocks. A couple very small holds in metals / mining. Need to trade a lot (add or reduce exposure) in those volatile sectors and mutual funds wouldn’t allow it - although etfs would. In mining a little bit of exposure provides plenty of action. The other 2 are in the food distribution sectors - one large cap and one mid cap. I figure people will need to eat come hell or high water.
    Over past couple years about 3 out of every 4 Barron’s stock picks have served me very well. But one or two have badly misfired. Goes to show there’s no free rides.
  • What’s Wrong at the New York Times
    I agree with Crash, but one thing I’d like to add, which should be self-evident on this board, is that a company’s stock performance is not the same as its performance as a business or its underlying profitability. I haven’t done a deep dive on the Times’ operations, but my impression is its stock is down sharply this year not because of operational disappointments but because it is a highly valued stock and stocks with higher valuations are underperforming as interest rates rise.
    The stock is highly valued because as a business the company has significantly outperformed its peers in recent years. That kind of performance would justify a pay raise for employees. In fact, just looking at the stock’s performance, it has completely trounced its peers in the flagging newspaper business and even the market overall in the past five years. So why fixate on 2022, a bad year for all stocks?
    Moreover, in an industry where intellectual capital, i.e., content is king, the creators of that content should be well compensated. That content has won the Times several Pullitzers recently.
  • howard marks. 16 minutes.
    Is he talking about his Sea Change memo?
    I’ll save folks a few thousand words of reading. The ”sea change” comes at the very end of Mark’s memo:
    “We’ve gone from the low-return world of 2009-21 to a full-return world, and it may become more so in the near term. Investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments, meaning they no longer have to rely as heavily on riskier investments to achieve their overall return targets. Lenders and bargain hunters face much better prospects in this changed environment than they did in 2009-21. And importantly, if you grant that the environment is and may continue to be very different from what it was over the last 13 years – and most of the last 40 years – it should follow that the investment strategies that worked best over those periods may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead. That’s the sea change I’m talking about.”
    Love Mark’s thinking. @Crash’s 15-20 minute video is well worth the time. In a nutshell, Marks looks for whatever appears “cheap” at the moment. (I affectionately term this practice “dumpster diving”).
    I thought the memo kind of boring. Blame that on my short attention span. But generally I’m one who comprehends things better verbally than in writing. I treasure Mark’s book “The Most Important Thing” - the audible version of which I’ve listened to a number of times.
    Back to basics, Mark’s “sea change” rests on his perception we’ve moved from an environment of ultra-low interest rates to a more moderate range of 3-4% on investment grade paper. The ramifications of this are too widespread to cover here. But, seemingly, investors will be inclined to to shun riskier assets now that decent returns are available with safer ones.
    Not much new here. Working on a new sleeve in the allocation model which will include a 5-10% allocation called “La-La Land” - essentially high volatility funds like GUG (that I own) which employ options strategies, tons of leverage and charge exorbitant fees. :)
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    Oh my gosh! It has happened! I've been waiting years for this moment! Thank you so much for the heads up Shadow!
  • Donald Trump NFT Collection Sells Out, Price Surges
    Maybe a few of the people who bought those whatever-they-ares intend to leave them to their children. Maybe in fifty years Antiques Road Show will appraise them for twice what they cost. Allowing for inflation, at least they might break even.
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    I use BitWarden for my corporate accounts and LastPass for personal. Will probably switch out of LP soon.
    My prior references to SIM hijack was an attacker taking control of your phone number through the port process, not emulation.
    2FA can also be hacked with malware on your phone that surreptitiously forwards SMS.
    RoboForm used to be an excellent offline password manager, no idea if the company is still around.
    I've also used the open source VeraPass which was really good but no idea if still around.
    The most secure means of password mgmt is portable USB or fob based (RoboForm had a specific To Go product for that) but it is not convenient in the world of smartphones. If one is a heavy PC user, nothing can beat the security of encrypted passwords on a USB disk.
    I did that for many years, very secure. Pop the portable USB fob into machine, RoboF pops up, I go through 2 different passwords-- first decrypt the disk and then the password to RF itself. Super secure but less convenient than LastPass.
  • What’s Wrong at the New York Times
    To me, the cost of living adjustment indexed to inflation or COLA described in the article makes the most sense. If the Times is worried that inflation won't last and they'll be promising too much, COLA would hedge their bets but also ensure that employees' wages keep up with prices everywhere else instead of being a wage reduction after inflation. From the article:
    Whatever pay increase the Times eventually agrees to, the NewsGuild is calling for a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that would equal inflation, that would hold Guild members harmless against any increase in inflation. The Times has rejected that COLA proposal even though enlightened employers often agree to cost-of-living adjustments. Not only do such provisions protect employees from having their pay eroded by higher-than-expected inflation, but if inflation remains low, COLA provisions would help the employer’s bottom line by holding down any promised raises. I hope that Times management will see the light on this—and take the enlightened approach.
    It’s not as if the Times can’t afford to give newsroom employees a 22.7 percent raise over four years. That’s around ten percentage points above what the Times is offering, and with each percentage point translating into $1.5 million a year in raises, that would cost the Times $15 million annually. That represents just 10 percent of the $150 million stock buyback and a small fraction of the Times’ current $465 million in cash on hand.
  • What’s Wrong at the New York Times
    In the current negotiations, the NewsGuild is demanding a wage increase averaging 5.25 percent a year over four years.... According to the union, the Times’ latest wage offer comes to 2.875 per year...
    Meanwhile, the Times raised paper subscription rates 10% at the start of 2022, and will raise them another 12% at the start of 2023. That's more, cumulative, in just two years than the workers are asking for spread over a period of four years.
    I had been thinking about cutting back the number of days I get the paper in hardcopy. But after reading about how the Times values its employees, I'm thinking of skipping pay subscriptions altogether and taking the free digital subscription offered through my school.
    I appreciate the service that the Times provides, but it shouldn't be on the backs of its employees or its customers alone.
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    @david
    Boy you love to bluster and also change the goalposts I see. Inspired by the current soccer World Cup?
    So we went from "show me how a brokerage account can be wiped, post some links" to "without operator error, how can an account be wiped" and "CNBC does not have competent editors" because strangely enough this became an exercise not about commenting on the substance of the issue but about CNBC citing 3 sources when they pinkie promised 4 at the top of the article.
    I take it then you're an InfoSec guru + writing wizard. Any other skills you'd like to dazzle us with? Why do you spend time on this forum with us uneducated folks when you could be monetizing your genius and be consulting with CNBC, Cloudflare and the like. InfoSec is hot David, you are severely underutilizing your skills. Google, Mandiant and Microsoft will pay you top $$ I assure you.
    On the topic of how your PC can be hacked without operator error, I suppose Microsoft and Google are both being run by rubes because they keep issuing OS and Chrome browser patches all the time coz -- hey they got nothing better to do. They also offer big bucks for zero-day exploits because hey tech companies have a lot of moolah to burn. Meanwhile users who haven't updated Chrome or Windows for more than 6 months wonder how in the hell trojans and worms got onto their machine.
    While Lapsus$ can directly breach Microsoft, they don't stand a chance of breaching David's system. If I didn't know any better I would have thought Pegasus is just a mythical stallion and not also the name of a product that can hack into a phone without any action needed from the owner of the phone. Egads, can't happen. All humbug. The entire Khashoggi story is all urban legend. Also humbug is all of the stuff that Edward Snowden described in great detail in his book as to what the NSA was capable of more than 10 years back. Because technology and hacking sophistication move backward, not forward. With the passage of time and exponentially more powerful CPU's (that can brute force password cracks) hacking actually gets more difficult.
    Hackers also reduce in number and age out even as world population grows and rewards for hacking (including new pathways for hacking such as crypto) grow ever larger.
    Meanwhile we all scratch our heads and wonder why when Windows, Chrome, Android etc.. are becoming impenetrable why companies and talent in cybersecurity are fetching top $$. All of the breaches mentioned at --> https://www.upguard.com/blog/biggest-data-breaches-us all baloney, all operator error. Had Mr. Moran been the CISO at all these places, none of this would have occurred.
    But all of this to no avail to our (super)man Moran. If there ain't a written manual, it ain't true.
    Peace
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    @stayCalm- Definitely not wanting to engage in any hostilities, but I'm wondering about your comment regarding being a "pretty heavy user of PersCap". Is PersCap some sort of aggregation setup? And if it is, do you think that the hacking risk is acceptable?
    I just eliminated all of my aggregation accounts at Schwab, and I guess that the next step would be to change the passwords on those accounts because it's likely that some residual information will still be at Schwab's aggregator.
    This has all turned out to be a very interesting question, and I'm really surprised that in all of the many years at MFO apparently we haven't discussed this before.
    Thanks- OJ
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    I have own this fund Long term... off nearly 20% YTD... 10% of my portfolio.
    So here the deal. Buy into this fund a little at a time and monitor its performance. It has under performed for the last 5 years so pay close attention. If its performance reverts to it's 10 and 15 year performance you will be in a good position long term.
    On a one year basis, I would suggest PRNHX in a better fund to take advantage of the '22 swoon.
    My question for buyers, when have we bottomed?
    The financial markets still seem attached at the hip with the Fed so until they stop raising rates we will just attempt at guessing how far prices will revert.
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    The Primecap funds have certainly endured a few years of bad luck -- POAGX in particular was perfectly positioned to crater when covid struck as it had outsized stakes in things like airlines and cruise lines. Yet the fund is idiosyncratic, that's for sure. All three of the funds have seen significant redemptions, resulting in large capital gains distributions for several years (worsening tax-adjusted performance). Anyone considering a new investment should take a look at the portfolio and be comfortable with the huge chunk of biotech and pharmaceuticals in there. It's almost a healthcare fund.

    You bring up some very good points.
    Primecap is a benchmark-agnostic firm and tends to favor certain industries.
    The following data was gleaned from M* reports published July 2022.
    POAGX: ~20% in biotech/pharma, ~13% in semis
    VPMAX: ~20% in biotech/pharma, ~13% in semis
    VPCCX: ~18% in biotech/pharma, ~11% in semis
    Primecap-managed funds may underperform common benchmarks for several consecutive calendar years.
    Investors should be prepared for this possibility.
    POAGX: lagged Russell Mid-Cap Growth from 2018 - 2021
    VPMAX: lagged Russell 1000 and S&P 500 from 2019 - 2021
    VPCCX: lagged Russell 1000 and S&P 500 from 2018 - 2021
    All three funds had top-decile 10 Yr. and 15 Yr. fund category returns through 11/30/2022.
    Primecap-managed funds can generate large capital gains distributions
    and are best held in tax-deferred or tax-exempt accounts.
  • tax loss selling question
    If your loss exceed $3,000, the remaining balance gets carry over next year.
    Back in 2008, I incurred capital loss that covered next several years. If I would be more patient, these funds would have recovered in several years. In the retrospect, I should be patient just like Warren Buffet.
  • Morningstar Inches Closer to 4% with 3.8% Safe Withdrawal Rate
    Excerpt from The Long View podcast episode (published 12/14/2021) featuring Mr. Bengen.
    Benz: How about the reverse of that where you believe that equity valuations are notably scary? Would it be advisable to potentially take the equity weighting way down with the assumption that you would ramp it up later on?
    Bengen: Yes. And essentially, that's what I'm doing in my portfolio. I'm only about 20% equities right now, because I think evaluations are ridiculous. And if you look at the chart of the CAPE, you'll see that when it reaches these peaks, in 1929, and it did so in the mid-60s, and then around 2000, that there was a sharp decline from that. It may take a number of years for it to happen. But it has always happened historically, and I don't know why this would be any different, the current environment. I just can't predict when it will happen. It will be six months, two years, who knows. But I'm a believer that the mean reversion--if we don't have mean reversion, it means we're in a whole new era and that the historical data doesn't mean really that much. So, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
    Link
  • PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund re-opening to new investors (Here's your chance to get in!)
    The Primecap funds have certainly endured a few years of bad luck -- POAGX in particular was perfectly positioned to crater when covid struck as it had outsized stakes in things like airlines and cruise lines. Yet the fund is idiosyncratic, that's for sure. All three of the funds have seen significant redemptions, resulting in large capital gains distributions for several years (worsening tax-adjusted performance). Anyone considering a new investment should take a look at the portfolio and be comfortable with the huge chunk of biotech and pharmaceuticals in there. It's almost a healthcare fund.
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    Info that @Observant1 provided from Fido is similar to what I have seen at other places too. Please read it carefully. Banks/brokers say that if you share your login with ANYONE, they are no longer responsible. I assume that ANYONE to mean relatives, friends, 3rd party a/c aggregators, etc. Question to ask is who is responsible if something goes wrong?
    I think that my discomfort level about 3rd party aggregators rose significantly years ago when in addition to account# and password, they started asking for info on other forms of authentications - images (this system is getting old), authentication codes, etc.
    As others have noted, there are risks in anything we do. But I decided that this risk from aggregators isn't worth for me. I do use Portfolio services (old M* Portfolio - offline, new M* Investor, Stock Rover) but there too, I don't link my brokerage accounts and rely on manual update of transactions.
  • Are the risks of Financial Account Aggregation really worth it?
    Using Yodlee via Schwab vs. using Yodlee or equivalent directly does not offer any additional security. Yodlee is a cloud based service, it can be hacked directly without needing to hack Schwab.
    Note that the account credentials you are providing (either to Schwab or Yodlee directly) are traversing the internet from your machine to Schwab and from Schwab to the aggregator. Yes it is encrypted and all that good stuff but it can be hacked including from bad apple insiders (this is how Capital One was hacked)
    In a cloud based world, hacking is a lot easier than the pre-cloud world because of the distributed nature of all services. In the age of the internet, security and privacy are not realistically possible. Over the last 5-7 years at least 5+ of my accounts with large corporations have been hacked -- Target, Capital One, Home Depot, Experian, etc..
    Hell LastPass recently got hacked, in effect LastPass is the equivalent of an account aggregator but much worse since it has a lot more confidential stuff than just financial accounts.