From JohnN’s above post:
“ … long term investors absolutely need dca /buy now.”
I suppose it depends on your definition of “long term investors” - among other things.
- If 25 years or more from retirement / needing the money one might ask why they are not already 100% in good equity funds.
- If we shorten the definition to mean 7-10 years from needing the money, I’d still argue for adding some equities at today’s levels, the degree of which dependent on the individual’s risk tolerance.
- Some folks consider only 3-5 years “long term”. With that short a time horizon the prospect of adding equities at today’s (still arguably elevated) valuations becomes much dicier. I probably would, but it’s far from a done deal.
(Not intended as advice)

reminds me of a prof i had for a class many years ago. smart, interesting, but with a voice that was smooth and so soothing, i could not help falling asleep. i went back and listened again, twice. that was some great shit. well worth listening to. thank you.... he recommends diversifiers right now, like EM debt. and commodities. even local currency EM debt. i'm out of EM debt. have been for a long time. it was PREMX. It once upon a time served me very well. but between PREMX and AGEPX, the latter certainly looks like a better deal today. ... as for commodities: he's been reading my own book: I've been averaging-into NHYDY. Vertically integrated. ALUMINUM. They even mine their own bauxite. cutting back on production lately. expected fall in demand. recession.
"Aluminium is the world's largest exchange commodity for metals in terms of trading volumes. It accounts for nearly a third of all contracts made on the LME."
https://investor.morningstar.com/quotes/0P000102MI
https://investor.morningstar.com/quotes/0P00002PHU
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/NHYDY
Forgot Real Estate. PSTL.
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/pstl/research-ratings?mod=quotes#subnav
And here's one I continue to track but do not own: SCHN.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/schn
***Confirmation bias, anyone...????????? Hmmmmm? ***
Anyhow, I can't take credit for following Arnott's advice before ever hearing it.

The fund website indicates about 150 companies each on the short and long side. That is 300 companies. They use technology to screen companies to hold in the portfolio. Is it fair to call this a long-short quant fund?
If you readily have the links, could you please direct me to info that confirms the fund strategy is long value companies and short growth companies? M* does show the fund in the value box for all years since inception.
The fund's performance since inception is good, though the fund's negative performance since June 8, 2022 gives me a pause if in a malaise whether cash is not a better option. If we are already getting closer to the bottom of the current bear market, is this the right fund to be in to spring up. I think this is a good fund but I will have to think if now is a good time to get into it, giving up cash.
With current money market fund yields in the 3-4% range, the fund should be able to cover its ER from the cash it holds (net long seems to vary 20-30%).

@BaluBalu
Individuals like Putin don't stop with "just a little bit". Button pushing for more won't stop. What's to lose???
Not unlike Hilter doing a bit of government rework for the country of Czechoslovakia in 1939.

@catch22,
Until I saw @Crash post, I assumed that you understood what I thought about Putin - that he is not to be trusted and he will take whatever he can get and more. Just to be clear, I support Ukraine to pursue its dreams and aspirations and the West to stop Putin and not surrender to his threats (nuke or not). I personally like to see Putin defeated and removed from power ASAP because of the societal cohesion it might bring in our own country.
Notwithstanding my personal desires, I still have to consider the probabilities of various outcomes of the war based on 20+ years of West's dealings with Putin, even when I personally dislike some of those outcomes.

This has been an extremely challenging year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio.
It's very rare for stocks and high-quality bonds to both be down for two or more consecutive quarters.
From Ben Carlson:
"The 6 month returns for a 60/40 portfolio were in the bottom 2% of rolling returns going back to 1926.
This means 98% of the time, returns have been better than what we just lived through.
It was also just the 4th time over the past 100 years or so that stocks and bonds were down two quarters
in a row at the same time.
The last time U.S. stocks and intermediate-term bonds were both down two quarters in a row occurred
in the first two 3 month periods in 1974."
Link

I read Hussie commentary for many years. Good writer and it all made sense and I was invested with his fund for many years but turned out to be a money loser.
In investing, unfortunately one has to be right and get the timing right too.

@Hank -
I don't believe HSGFX is a bear fund, but does attempt to adjust market exposure due to the market via examining certain metrics, valuations etc. He has been wrongly positioned during the past years primarily because his models didn't account for the Central Banks pumping money into the system. No funds invested their for me now but have to say every time I read his commentary it makes sense, at least to me.
I guess my point was many funds who have received accolades and done well with the wind at their back and some were arguably positioned correctly but still lost investors money due to outside influences...now let's see how they do when that outside influence, the insane largess of the CBs goes away...meaning QT, rate hikes etc. In other words, the tide is going out, who is wearing swim trunks?
Not sure about a Great Depression, I sure hope not, but quite possible, maybe likely an extended malaise ala the Jimmy Carter years...it does seem crazy that many believe rates get hiked, mistake is made, market crashes, then QE and up go the markets again...I'm not certain that will be the case this go round.
Best Regards,
Baseball Fan

The author at that link ends with, "[U]nder any reasonable strategy, using the weapons is unthinkable and so threatening their use is by definition a bluff."
I would not be so sure. If he has to give up any territory he wants to control (probably smaller than what he claims to be Russia but making Russia contiguous to Crimea which has all along been his goal of this war (NATO threat is a red herring)), he will use all means. He has already made massive areas of Ukraine (he does not want / care for) uninhabitable; nuke is just a word. This war has been in the making for at least 10 years - he played a long, incremental game. USEIA shows Europe substantially increased its energy dependence on Russia after Crimea annexation, clearly sending Putin a signal that Europe is too selfish to stop him. ISTM, as long as he is in Power, either Ukraine gives up or there is going to be no resolution to this war. Does the West really have the resolve to isolate Russia and strangle its economy for at least 10 years if he does not withdraw from Ukraine to pre-2014 borders? It was not easy to strangle South Africa and Russia is a whole different ball game. The West are still working on getting Sweden and Finland into NATO - shows who is in control.
ISTM, if there is a peace agreement in Ukraine, he will give up some of the Ukraine territory he claims to be Russia but does not control or need. IMO, the [most likely] outcome for this war is not much different from Russia's last war with Finland. Any agreement he enters is only as good as how much of it he wants to adhere to - we know how his agreement with Georgia is being implemented. There never was a Putin or Hitler, without enablers. In Putin's case, there have been plenty of enablers both inside and outside Russia.
I hope my assessment is wrong for the world's sake and hope there is a speedy resolution to Ukraine's misery, but the above is how I am investing. A positive consequence of the Ukraine war has been that we now have far fewer serious cyber attacks from Russia. Let us hope Russia forgets how to do those for lack of practice!

“Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest.”
Sure. I’ll comment. HSGFX is a bear market fund. It should surprise no one that the fund has soared in a year in which the S&P has fallen 25% in a mere 6 months and the NASDAQ more than 32% during the same period. If your point is that HSGFX is a better fund than PRWCX over multi-year periods, than you should buy it. However, past performance doesn’t support that.
It is certainly possible we’re entering another Great Depression era during which markets will continue falling for multiple years and than not recover / return to “break-even” for 2 decades - as in the 30s and 40s. If that’s your call, than invest your $$ in bear funds, Personally, I refuse to believe that’s where the U.S. and global economies are heading for the next 20 years. But that’s just my largely uninformed optimistic outlook - perhaps the unfortunate consequence of having watched far too many Louis Rukeyser programs during the 70s, 80s & 90s. Your money. Your call.

PRSIX (“T. Rowe Price Conservative Allocation Fund”) is down 17.14% YTD after today. A good bell-weather to watch. I’ve followed it for years and have always admired the firm’s demonstrated management prowess. It’s highly unlikely the folks at TRP have started taking “stupid pills”. So, other thoughts might be entertained as to why that fund suddenly fell out of bed in the course of a short 9 months. Might be some lessons there …

Rough year for sure. Perhaps one silver lining is for Roth conversion at the market low.

Yup. It’s called “making lemonade out of lemons”. :)

Thanks, @msf.
"There are some elections - basically how accretion is calculated (there are multiple methods) and whether one chooses to declare income annually or upon sale."
If the above applies to OID as well, I would be interested if you have a citation on top of your head to be able to defer income inclusion annually, allowing an investor to include in income the entire OID amount when the bond matures or when sold. This is particularly useful to a cash basis taxpayer (like us) who does not receive the OID interest until maturity. This can also be very useful if one is buying OID bonds issued by foreign entities / governments. There can be a lot of change in exchange rates after issue date. If the dollar appreciates, one may actually end up losing money on the investment, notwithstanding high OID. It would be worse, if one is required to pay tax on accrued interest each year just to get a big loss at the end when one's tax rate could be lower. (I remember once when I invested in a CD with early withdrawal penalties, the bank issued me a 1099-OID every year even though I did not get the interest until the CD matured.)
Edit: From an earlier post from you - § 1278(b) Election To Include Market Discount Currently. (Without this election, it appears market discount is included in income only upon sale or maturity of the bond.)
You had also included this useful link related to that election - https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/customer-service/fixed-income-reporting-instructions.pdf
Most of the bonds I am currently buying have massive market discounts. If I do not make the section 1278(b) election, it seems Fidelity will include the market discounts at the time of maturity. Not making the election will defer the tax liability to a later year. This election needs to be made by December 31. I may make this election if the brokerage is going to report (without the election) the market discount as capital gain on Form 1099, notwithstanding what they are supposed to do - I spoke with three different Reps and got three different answers.
The statutory text of the deminimis rule you mentioned -
"I.R.C. § 1278(a)(2)(C) De Minimis Rule — If the market discount is less than 1/4 of 1 percent of the stated redemption price of the bond at maturity multiplied by the number of complete years to maturity (after the taxpayer acquired the bond), then the market discount shall be considered to be zero."
I added the above Edit info so it may be useful to others.

The question on AKREX is a good one. A great fund for it's 1st 10 years with Aker managing. Hasn't been great since Chuck gave up the lead. Maybe this fact is coincidental but it certainly is something to point to. I have owned it for a while, but I am considering a dollar for dollar switch to something else.

"Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were 'fan favorites', kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves."
"Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE."
I don't personally own any of the mentioned funds.
When an investor owns actively-managed funds, they should expect periods of underperfomance.
It usually comes with the territory.
If an investor can't tolerate bouts of underperformace, perhaps they should utilize broad-based index funds instead to capture market returns?
Mr. Hussman anticipated market crashes associated with the dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis.
He's been a perma-bear since the GFC and his funds' long-term performance
was terrible last time I checked (it's been a while).

I for one would be sorely tempted by guaranteed 5% returns. I once new someone who told me that during the Volcker era she bought very long term fixed income securities of some kind (CDs? Treasurys?) that paid a double-digit rate of interest and enjoyed that for many years, when all other returns were paltry.

I'm thinking to invest in longer-term CDs over the next quarter or two, but keep some cash aside (20%?) in Money Market Funds in case the Stock market really tanks. Or maybe go 100% CDs and take the early withdrawal penalty if need be.
Saw some Morgan Stanley 4.8% 10 year CDs at Fido today, though they are callable. Over 5% is soon to come.

I for one would be sorely tempted by guaranteed 5% returns. I once new someone who told me that during the Volcker era she bought very long term fixed income securities of some kind (CDs? Treasurys?) that paid a double-digit rate of interest and enjoyed that for many years, when all other returns were paltry.

Agree with @yogibb. This is a good time to review your mutual funds even though many have not announced their CG estimates.
After the 2008's aftermath, I switched to index funds to minimize the unexpected large CG even in poor years.

My jesting a few days ago (in response to @Derf’s question) about heaving the ship’s deck furniture and than lifeboats into the boiler to keep the ship sailing had a practical intent - possibly overlooked. The point was - as an investor’s ready cash on hand to add to riskier assets dwindles, the eventual last resort is to cannibalize other assets which are down less, selling them to buy riskier assets. Might be bond funds, allocation funds, long-short funds, an energy stock - anything thar’s still above water or has fallen less. Should the downturn last for many years, one might end up 100% weighted all in the growthiest stocks. This is not advice. It may not even make sense to most. A similar path worked for me in the ‘07-‘09 period. That was, however, by historical standards a somewhat short bear market. And, personally speaking, my time horizon was considerably longer then than it is today.

This is just conceptual and largely off the top of my head, so take it for what it's worth. Also, I'm discussing taxable bonds with (original) maturities of more than one year that are not zeros. So this excludes T-bills and STRIPS. In addition, T-bills are non-covered, so unlike other bounds purchased since 2014, their purchase price may not be reported to the IRS.
OID accretes (it is gradually added to the "natural" price of a bond). This portion of "appreciation" is treated as interest. (Think of a zero; all of the interest is reflected in the increase in price of the bond over time). Since this OID interest comes from the original issuer, here the Treasury, it is taxed the same way as if that interest had been part of the coupon. IOW, state tax exempt, federally taxable.
Market premium or discount is relative to the OID-adjusted price. You will likely sell at a higher or lower discount (or premium) than you got at time of purchase. For example, you might buy bonds with a total discount of $50, but sell them with no discount. This "gain" of $50 is treated differently depending on the YTW at which you bought the bond.
If you bought that bond with the expectation (i.e. YTW) that you would get $30 more at sale (instead of the $50 you got), then $30 is treated as ordinary (not Treasury) interest. After all, you purchased the bond for that yield. Now you lucked out, rates dropped, and you got some extra (market) appreciation. That extra appreciation is taxed (fed and state) as a cap gain.
There's a de minimis rule: if the amount of market gain (i.e. excluding OID adjustments) is less than 0.25% x number of years you hold the bond, then the entire accretion (gain) is treated as a cap gain.
What if you bought a bond at a premium and sell it for less, or what if you even bought it at a discount but sold it at a bigger discount? That loss is used to reduce the amount of interest you receive. If you purchased a bond with a 3% coupon, but with a 2% premium, then you're effectively netting 1% in interest. This is reflected in how the bond is taxed.
I'm almost positive I've gotten something not exactly right here. Just trying to sketch the broad outlines.
There are some elections - basically how accretion is calculated (there are multiple methods) and whether one chooses to declare income annually or upon sale.
See Pub 550 generally. And look for explanatory pieces. The IRS is good at mechanics, not so good on explaining the concepts. I'm sure you can find better stuff than what I jotted down here. I haven't looked at this in depth in several years.

FARIX, Fulcrum Diversified Absolute Fund...mentioned on the boards in the recent past...did Schwab send out several statements to shareholders of the fund with restated values of the fund on each statement? What if anything should one read into it? I have no idea what that is about but I was a shareholder of IQDAX when I received about a dozen similar statements with restated values from various backwards looking months and a few months later the fund closed and the manager was charged with some kind of malfeasance. NOT saying this is the case here meaning FAIRX, but do wonder what the reason for this is. Any explanations, why would they have to do this? Where is the governance?
Anyone care to comment on AKREX (-29% YTD) or TMSRX (-5.5% YTD) ? Seems to me they were "fan favorites", kind of crickets lately, anyone still holding? Talk amongst yourselves.
Anyone care to comment that Hussy, HSGFX is in fact AHEAD of PRWCX for the past 3 years now? What's that, oh go back more years, ok I get it, I hear you, fair point, but let's see what happens going forward when the CBs globally are not pumping in trillions of dollars and the fund managers need to navigate the markets and invest without the QE.
Got to like the 4.3 2YR CD Schwab, 4.4 3YR, 4.5 5YR...do I hear 5% 5 year? when that happens, I can hear a whooshing sound of folks over 60 bailing on the stonk market and locking in. Thoughts?
CDX IG spread is bigly....what does it mean? lotsa stress in credit markets, can't be good, or do we blast off in big tech names soon with squeeze or does it all go down the sheeeter soon?
Good Health and Good Luck to ALL
Baseball Fan

I haven't investigated the tax ramifications of selling Treasuries in the secondary market.
Except for I Bonds which I've been purchasing for years, I've started buying Treasuries
(13-week / 26-week T-Bills) only recently in May. I buy at auction and will hold to maturity.