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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    This is a very unusual situation. Until the last few years, unemployment was normally roughly in the 4 to 6% range, and when the Fed was on a tightening binge it would typically tend to increase that by at least a few percentage points.
    Since we now have a situation where unemployment is virtually zero (many job openings are going unfilled) it would seem that it would take a very large amount of "tightening" to make a significant difference.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    As I said on Armchair, I wish more PMs were as self-aware and willing to bluntly own up to positions that didn't go according to plan as Giroux. It was a brutal and honest admission about GE ... and I respect him even more for saying what he did.
    Agreed. As long as there isn't too much of that. It's what caused me to leave Foster at SFGIX. Honesty is good, admirable. "But don't make TOO many errors. You're supposed to be GOOD at this stuff, eh?"
    Quote: "...overweight information technology stocks for the first time in many years. We have been able to add to, or initiate, positions in a number of very high-quality, long-term attractive companies—such as Apple, Nvidia, NXP Semiconductors, and Texas Instruments—as a result of short-term concerns around supply chains, recession, and near-term tough comps. I have often said that there is no easier way to make money in the stock market than to buy a high-quality company that is trading at an attractive valuation due solely to short-term concerns."
    Still, it is a clear, candid and thorough letter. My hat is off to Giroux.
  • WSJ: Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings
    I wonder how this trend might affect the TIAA Real Estate fund, which IIRC had a lot of prime office buildings? Remote work trends in many sectors definitely is having an impact on the need for costly "downtown" office properties, let alone large office properties generally. I don't think things will ever go back 100% to the way they were pre-Covid.
    Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/pension-funds-are-selling-their-office-buildings-11661381460
    Major U.S. and Canadian pension funds are cutting back investments in office buildings, betting that prices will likely fall as the five-day office workweek becomes a thing of the past.
    Retirement funds are still buying property, partly in a bid to reduce the impact of inflation. But those investments are more focused on warehouses, lab space, housing and infrastructure such as airports.
    The shift is part of a broader transition away from traditional real estate holdings in offices and shopping centers as the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the rise of e-commerce and remote work.

    < - >
    North American public pension funds manage more than $6 trillion and allocated an average of 8.7% to real estate as of Aug. 19, according to researcher Preqin Ltd.
    Private real-estate funds currently hold 23% of their investments in offices, down from 34% three years ago, according to an index maintained by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. These funds’ holdings in retail space have fallen to 10% from 17% over the same period, the council said.
    Meanwhile, industrial properties have grown to account for 31% of those private real-estate funds’ investments, according to the council, up from 18% in 2019. Pension officials are increasingly seeking out stakes in airports, highways and utilities. Those so-called infrastructure assets have grown to 4.1% of total pension portfolios from 3% in 2017 for retirement funds that report them separately from other real-estate assets, according to Preqin.

    < - paywalled sadly unless you know how to get around them and/or are subscribed - >
  • LNG news thing. 23rd Aug, '22
    24 august '22:
    HOUSTON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. pipeline operator Energy Transfer LP on Wednesday said it agreed to supply 2.1 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year to Shell Plc for 20 years.
    The deal for supplies from its proposed Lake Charles, Louisiana, facility comes as demand and prices for LNG are soaring over Russia's February invasion of Ukraine. LNG prices at the Dutch hub in Europe this week hit $83 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), more than twice that of early March.
    Shell was an original backer of the facility, which received U.S. permits in 2015 to produce 16.4 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of the superchilled fuel. But the British oil giant quit the project two years ago as energy markets tumbled during the coronavirus pandemic.
    Energy Transfer more recently has signed a string of agreements with potential buyers to supply about 8 MPTA. The Shell agreement anticipates first LNG deliveries under the contract as early as 2026. U.S. permits for the project were issued in 2015, but Energy Transfer has not yet reached a financial greenlight. (Reporting by Rithika Krishna in Bengaluru; Editing by Aditya Soni and Richard Pullin)
  • rare earth metals: GREENLAND.
    Purifying to 99.9999% from a crude ore is always costly. The price is driven by the end-product’s performance. Think many of these special magnets are used in space applications ranging from deep-space telescope to land rovers.
    US needs to produce these critical materials for national security purpose. Can’t farm out these critical processes to countries that could be our future enemies. Conflict with China continues to escalate in recent years. If synthetic rubber was not invented and produced in the States, we would lost WWII.
  • rare earth metals: GREENLAND.
    Following are edited excerpts from the NY Times article:
    One of the world’s last processors of rare earth metals outside China is buying mining rights in Greenland to reduce dependence on Russian ore and stabilize prices, in the latest move by Western companies to diversify supply chains following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    Rare earth metals are essential for the manufacture of a broad range of modern products, including electric car motors, offshore wind turbines and smart bombs. Demand has soared as automakers switch more of their production to electric vehicles.
    Dozens of mostly small companies mine rare earth ore around the world, but only two commercial-scale factories outside China perform the difficult task of chemically separating semi-processed ore into usable material for magnets in electric car motors and other applications. Toronto-based Neo Performance Materials buys semi-processed ore from Russia, the United States and Australia and does the chemical processes at factories in Estonia and China. Another company, Lynas, mines rare earth metals ore in Australia and does the chemical processes in Malaysia.
    Neo said on Monday that it was acquiring rare earth mining rights in Greenland from Hudson Resources, a tiny mining company based in Vancouver, British Columbia. The acquisition is the first move into rare earth mining by Neo, whose chief executive said his company planned to start mining and processing ore in Greenland in two to three years, with full production in about five years. The semi-processed ore will be shipped to Neo’s chemical separation factory in Estonia, a former Soviet republic on the Baltic Sea in Eastern Europe. The factory in Estonia currently buys three-fifths of its rare earth ore from Russia and the rest from Utah. The West has imposed many sanctions and other restrictions on companies and exports from Russia, but not yet on rare earth metals.
    Neo’s goal is to free itself of the need to buy ore at world prices. These prices fluctuate more widely than most commodities, surging up to 10-fold during periods of geopolitical tensions before crashing once tensions ease. Neo is also preparing to start building a factory in Estonia that will turn processed rare earths into magnets for electric car motors. With European automakers shifting production quickly toward electric cars, the European Union is offering financial assistance for the creation of a mines-to-magnets supply chain within Europe for rare earths.
    Although Greenland is geographically part of North America, it is an autonomous district of Denmark, a member of the European Union. Neo is not the first company to try to mine rare earths in Greenland. A consortium including a Chinese state-owned enterprise tried to open a mine at the southern tip of Greenland several years ago, at a rare earths deposit that also holds considerable uranium. That project was blocked by local opponents and regulators worried about the risk of radioactive contamination of the environment. A Canadian geologist who has advised Hudson Resources in Greenland and will now become a consultant to Neo, said the deposit in Sarfartoq being acquired by Neo had 97 percent less radioactive material per ton than the deposit at the southern tip of Greenland.
    The Sarfartoq deposit, on Greenland’s western coast, is also considerably smaller than the one at the southern tip of Greenland. Neo said the Sarfartoq deposit still had enough rare earths to meet Neo’s entire worldwide processing needs for at least 30 years, and possibly for a century if further drilling at the edge of the deposit confirms further rare earth ore.
    Rare earths, a group of 17 elements near the bottom of the periodic table, are not radioactive, but radioactive contaminants like uranium and thorium occur naturally in rare earth deposits. Controversies over how to dispose of those contaminants have led to the shuttering of rare earth separation factories over the past 40 years in Japan, Australia, France and the United States. Almost all of the American ore is mined in California and goes to China for processing, although a little is produced in Florida and processed in Utah. President Biden and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California announced plans in February to subsidize the restarting of chemical separation in California.
    Rare earths are essential but mostly used in trace amounts, so the actual value of the industry is small. Industry analysts put the worldwide value of rare earth ore sales at about $2 billion, and the value of completely processed magnetic powders and other rare earth materials at nearly $8 billion.
  • .....And....... fizzle. Again. 24 Aug. '22.
    @johnN
    One of these days, months or years; with your various predictions on an almost daily basis recently, your money ship may arrive.
    Sp500 ~4600 - 4750 by yr end
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Yeah. Thanks @Catch22. I need a simple list of numbers / dates or durations to reference. From that data I can draw connecting arrows, circle things and make little notations on the side with pointy arrows. And instead of a road map, just say “Go north 3 blocks and turn right. Proceed to the next …”
    Yeah - @Old_Joe. For sure. I refuse to stay “signed in” as they and others ask. Of course, that won’t stop the tracking. Off the reservation now (sorry) - But what will be the state of AI in 50 years? / 500 years?
    Might make a good OT thread.
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Hi @hank
    I've used Google Finance for more than 10 years to build and use a "watchlist". Mine is only for watching changes for etf's and/or stocks. These may be viewed "real time" (1 day view) or you may select other time frames (5 day, etc.). If one places a traditional mutual fund ticker, the shortest performance time frame is one month. I use M* to view daily/weekly changes for traditional mutual fund tickers (5 characters). This link should show DKNG real time. You should also see an icon oval with the word "follow". You may click this icon to set this ticker in a watchlist. Using the search window at the top, you may enter other tickers and continue to build a watchlist. The search will also begin to build a "choice list" as you enter a ticker, to help one be able to select what they are searching. You may also remove watchlist items you no longer want to monitor.
    If there are particular news items about a ticker, scroll down the page to check.
    NOTE: to the best of my knowledge, one does not need a Google account or have to log-in to build a watchlist (this link was posted without any log-in). Perhaps one can have more functions with a log-in to Google. I use Google Chrome for the browser, so I don't know what you'll see or be able to do using other browsers.
    So, you won't have piles of data about a ticker, but is a fast and easy reference page for a watchlist.
    Google Finance, set for DraftKings
    Let us know what you discover.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Just want to share that CNBC has a free app that might interest folks looking for a quick overview of funds and stocks. Mine came from Apple’s app store. Suspect it’s available on other operating systems. I’m not seeing a portfolio tracker, although it allows you to create watchlists. When running an ad blocker I haven’t been bothered by distracting ads. To use: Just look for the search icon at the top of page and enter ticker symbol. The numbers generated appear spot-on from what I can tell.
    I’ve been searching for something like this since the excellent Lipper page I’d relied on heavily for years (accessed through a link to Reuters) went blank. What I like to look at, in addition to yearly performance, are: YTD, 3-month and 6-month returns. The CNBC app is rare nowadays ISTM in providing all those parameters. Yahoo might, but it’s also been coming up empty with a lot of fund searches. Wouldn’t even pull up PRWCX this morning which I don’t own but like to watch as a reference point of sorts.
  • Is Berkshire more like a Mutual Fund than a stock?
    Several past posts:
    1) "MSF describes it—blend—a blue chip stock with its heady growth days in the past.
    "Agree with msf and Lewis assessment. The fast growing business (iPhones, computers, music, and AppleTV) since Steve Jobs's returned has plateaued. In some area Apple is trailing."
    2) "Growth is about revenues, cash flow and earnings versus the benchmark and industry peers and it’s forward looking, not from five or ten years ago."
    FD: Reality check, after close to 3 years, Apple proved to be MORE THAN JUST A BLEND BLUE CHIP
    One year performance......AAPL +12.3....VFINX -6.6%......JPM -23.7%
    Three year performance...AAPL +49.65...VFINX +14.9%...JPM +6.1%
    In just 3 years AAPL made 174% more than VFINX(SP500)....221.8 vs 47.8%...see (chart)
  • Time to invest in natural gas ?
    NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers and producers this year have struck deals to sell 48 million tonnes of LNG, which will eventually pump up exports 60% from current levels, although much of the output remains years away.
    LNG demand is soaring as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global prices to their highest in at least 14 years. Buyers in Europe have looked West in a move away from Russian gas, and Chinese buyers are striking long-term deals after a pause.
    New gas-export plants are being developed across the United States, and Mexico and Canada are poised to join as significant gas exporters, with plants proposed for their west coasts.
    Eight North American LNG export terminals are under construction and over a dozen more could receive financial greenlights by 2023. Some buyers have locked in supplies from plants that have not yet been approved for construction, so not every supply agreement may go ahead.
    "The dynamics have shifted," said Charlie Riedl, executive director for trade group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas. "Buyers are trying to lock up firm agreements where they can (to) guarantee that gas is going to be delivered," he said.
    For a factbox on North American LNG export plants, see
    This week, European gas prices hit $84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and U.S. gas futures on Tuesday topped $10 per mmBtu for the first time since 2008.
    'LONG-TERM ROLE'
    Goldman Sachs forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 12% 424 MTPA next year and expects new plants that will supply 156 MTPA to be approved within the next five years.
    Growing demand has made the United States this year's largest LNG exporting nation during the first six months. Approved projects that are expected to begin shipments between 2023-2026 could keep the country in first place.
    "It is important for the United States to supply the market to support allies in Europe and Asia and improve the ability of the developing world to access gas," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global LNG's chief executive. His firm has entered into agreements to sell 18.5 MTPA of LNG since last September.
    Some of the biggest deals are from Chinese firms returning to the U.S. market after a pause over tariff disputes. Late last year, Venture Global LNG struck deals for 11 MTPA with units of China's Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. China's ENN Natural Gas Co signed separate deals last year with Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer.
    Due to the lack of available capacity, some recent deals have involved facilities whose construction have not yet received financial approvals. Those agreements "reinforce our conviction in the long-term role" for LNG in global energy markets, said Tim Wyatt, a Cheniere senior vice president.
    For a factbox on recent North American LNG deals, see
    But rising demand has led to construction of three new U.S. export projects and several more could be approved in 2023.
    "The global energy crisis has been years in the making due to significant underinvestment," said Octavio Simoes, CEO of Tellurian, which recently started construction on its long-delayed plant in Louisiana.
    TOP EXPORTERS
    In 2021, top LNG exporters were Australia at 78.5 MTPA, Qatar at 77.0 MTPA, the United States at 67.0 MTPA and Russia at 29.7 MTPA, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), an industry group.
    The United States, with vast reserves of shale gas, is on track to produce a record 85 MTPA of LNG this year, according to U.S. government projections.
    About 68% of U.S LNG exports went to Europe during the first half of 2022 versus just 35% in all of 2021, according to data provider Refinitiv.
    There are four export plants under construction in the United States that will boost the nation's capacity to produce LNG from 104.6 MTPA now to 156.3 MTPA in 2026.
    In addition, two export plants are under construction in Canada and two in Mexico that will add another 20.8 MTPA to North America's LNG production once all of the facilities enter service by 2027.
    (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
  • LNG news thing. 23rd Aug, '22
    You'll recognize the names that are dropped.
    Taken from the TRP webpage.
    NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) - North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers and producers this year have struck deals to sell 48 million tonnes of LNG, which will eventually pump up exports 60% from current levels, although much of the output remains years away.
    LNG demand is soaring as the conflict in Ukraine pushes global prices to their highest in at least 14 years. Buyers in Europe have looked West in a move away from Russian gas, and Chinese buyers are striking long-term deals after a pause.
    New gas-export plants are being developed across the United States, and Mexico and Canada are poised to join as significant gas exporters, with plants proposed for their west coasts.
    Eight North American LNG export terminals are under construction and over a dozen more could receive financial greenlights by 2023. Some buyers have locked in supplies from plants that have not yet been approved for construction, so not every supply agreement may go ahead.
    "The dynamics have shifted," said Charlie Riedl, executive director for trade group Center for Liquefied Natural Gas. "Buyers are trying to lock up firm agreements where they can (to) guarantee that gas is going to be delivered," he said.
    For a factbox on North American LNG export plants, see
    This week, European gas prices hit $84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and U.S. gas futures on Tuesday topped $10 per mmBtu for the first time since 2008.
    'LONG-TERM ROLE'
    Goldman Sachs forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 12% 424 MTPA next year and expects new plants that will supply 156 MTPA to be approved within the next five years.
    Growing demand has made the United States this year's largest LNG exporting nation during the first six months. Approved projects that are expected to begin shipments between 2023-2026 could keep the country in first place.
    "It is important for the United States to supply the market to support allies in Europe and Asia and improve the ability of the developing world to access gas," said Mike Sabel, Venture Global LNG's chief executive. His firm has entered into agreements to sell 18.5 MTPA of LNG since last September.
    Some of the biggest deals are from Chinese firms returning to the U.S. market after a pause over tariff disputes. Late last year, Venture Global LNG struck deals for 11 MTPA with units of China's Sinopec and CNOOC Ltd. China's ENN Natural Gas Co signed separate deals last year with Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer.
    Due to the lack of available capacity, some recent deals have involved facilities whose construction have not yet received financial approvals. Those agreements "reinforce our conviction in the long-term role" for LNG in global energy markets, said Tim Wyatt, a Cheniere senior vice president.
    For a factbox on recent North American LNG deals, see
    But rising demand has led to construction of three new U.S. export projects and several more could be approved in 2023.
    "The global energy crisis has been years in the making due to significant underinvestment," said Octavio Simoes, CEO of Tellurian, which recently started construction on its long-delayed plant in Louisiana.
    TOP EXPORTERS
    In 2021, top LNG exporters were Australia at 78.5 MTPA, Qatar at 77.0 MTPA, the United States at 67.0 MTPA and Russia at 29.7 MTPA, according to the International Gas Union (IGU), an industry group.
    The United States, with vast reserves of shale gas, is on track to produce a record 85 MTPA of LNG this year, according to U.S. government projections.
    About 68% of U.S LNG exports went to Europe during the first half of 2022 versus just 35% in all of 2021, according to data provider Refinitiv.
    There are four export plants under construction in the United States that will boost the nation's capacity to produce LNG from 104.6 MTPA now to 156.3 MTPA in 2026.
    In addition, two export plants are under construction in Canada and two in Mexico that will add another 20.8 MTPA to North America's LNG production once all of the facilities enter service by 2027.
    (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio)
  • RPIEX: Contrarian Bond Fund
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54925/what-s-a-bond-fund-like-this-doing-in-t-rowe-s-stable-rpiex
    I question whether this fund should any longer be considered “contrarian”. ISTM that for the past year or more it’s been “going with the trend” - that being betting on generally rising interest rates.
    If you really want to be “contrarian” today buy a traditional long-only investment grade bond fund having an average maturity of 15 years or more. I recently speculated that such bonds / bond funds appear ripe to have a good year. Received a “thumbs down” from member. Suspect that would be the prevailing opinion / conventional wisdom today.
    Enjoying the discussion and everyone’s comment.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    The dysfunctions at the IRS are a direct result of the Republicans for years deliberately starving it of the funding necessary to properly run the place. Yet another example, as if we needed one, of their continuous assault on the federal government.
    And no, I'm no fan of the IRS either, but if we're going to run a country we need to be able to enforce the rules and collect the taxes legitimately due.
    Precisely.
  • Mutual Funds and Capital Gains Taxes
    Markets also cooperated by being mostly in bullish trend leading to fund inflows. Remember, VG has been the king of fund inflows.
    Flipside of the connection between VG OEFs and ETFs is that when there were large redemptions/outflows in 2020 (and in any other years), both the VG OEF and the related VG ETF had similar CG distributions. See the short table below.
    Self-standing non-VG bond ETFs didn't have this issue. Much of the benefit from the ETF structure is from the combination of indexing and nontaxable in-kind trading. There are some additional benefits from the VG patented structure of having OEF and ETF classes. VG didn't license its patent to anybody else and others didn't really beg VG for that license. But things may change in/after 2023.
    2020 CGs for several VG bond funds
    VEDTX /EDV 3.16%
    VBLAX /BLV 2.69%
    VBILX /BIV 0.71%
    VSIGX /VGIT 0.71%
    VSBSX /VGSH 0.60%
    So how does this help me? Do I want to own the ETF or OEF?
  • Mutual Funds and Capital Gains Taxes
    Markets also cooperated by being mostly in bullish trend leading to fund inflows. Remember, VG has been the king of fund inflows.
    Flipside of the connection between VG OEFs and ETFs is that when there were large redemptions/outflows in 2020 (and in any other years), both the VG OEF and the related VG ETF had similar CG distributions. See the short table below.
    Self-standing non-VG bond ETFs didn't have this issue. Much of the benefit from the ETF structure is from the combination of indexing and nontaxable in-kind trading. There are some additional benefits from the VG patented structure of having OEF and ETF classes. VG didn't license its patent to anybody else and others didn't really beg VG for that license. But things may change in/after 2023.
    2020 CGs for several VG bond funds
    VEDTX /EDV 3.16%
    VBLAX /BLV 2.69%
    VBILX /BIV 0.71%
    VSIGX /VGIT 0.71%
    VSBSX /VGSH 0.60%
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    @hank
    I dunno Mr Hank...I am not an expert for sure but for certain I am not sanguine on bonds
    I anticpated the following possiblities, scenarios and potentially negative for bond holders
    * China, Japan continue to unload US Treasuries
    *QT
    *In reality, and all political narrative BS aside...inflation continues to go up, product/services continue to go up...gas sure a little cheaper but just wait until after the mid-terms when we replenish strat stock piles at even higher prices
    *Did I mention mid term elections? I did. Wait for it. The cancelation of student debt, so more money to buy weed and shitcoins and sporty event gamblings.
    * Wait for it...next and unlike the prior statement I totally agree with, the discharge of medical debt
    * Wait for it....a complete debt jubilee once the weathy cannot pay the note on their overpriced crappy $675,000 starter homes
    *Who and how is anyone paying on the half empty commercial buildings
    *WAYYY too much debt created over the past dozen years.
    I can see laddering Tbills, 3 month, 6 month, 12 months...but everyting else...dunno, not for me
    To me. Maybe a better allocation funds are the MAFIX, BLNDX...although I am not certain if they are just lucky with their timing, were in OIL/Energy, commodities, FX at the right time? MAFIX maybe better result but more balck boxy than BLDNX? Dunno. Maybe better 50/50 3 month Tbill and solid divy paying value fund, TWEIX like?
    Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Folks can we please try to turn down the volume here. I come here as do most others to engage in thoughtful investment discussions, not to deal with political vitriol. If you don’t like her political or social views then don’t invest in the fund. Simple as that. But Lewis is right her performance for her fund category is actually good. In the top 16% over the past 5 years. No need to go after the manager like that.
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Rondure New World, i.e, RNWOX has beaten its peers handily in the past three years with less volatility than them as well so I’m not sure what the grotesque attack on the manager’s supposed “virtue signaling” is for. If anyone bought this emerging market stock fund expecting its behavior to be comparable somehow to “a 5-year CD,” that’s on you. You shouldn’t be invested in emerging markets at all if you think that. The manager shouldn’t be blamed for the fact those markets are volatile. There’s a reason they have the word “emerging” instead of “developed” in their name.