I have been looking at FARIX an absolute return/ Global Macro fund that FD100 mentioned on another board. They have a fair amount of useful data and information on their website. It has low correlations to Global equities (0.3) and FI (-0.3) and a 60/40 portfolio (0.3).
For some reason Fulcrum funds are not in the MFO database, but I looked at the available absolute return funds that are and compared FARIX to the top four over the last year by MFO risk and return. FARIX has a lower St dev and a much lower Max DD ( 5%) and a higher return since inception. It is up 25% in the last three years, and 3% YTD, but only lost a smidgeon in the Covid crash. Avaliable at Schwab and Fido.
I have been mildly burned by other "black Box" funds ( Looking at you TMSRX!) before. I tried a slug of managed futures in the past, but found they were not consistent.
While this is really searching for the "golden fleece" ( hoping not to get fleeced) it seems worth a small nibble.

@fred495, yes hear you loud and clear...still a bit unease with the PQTIX etc...so many derivatives, futures, swap agreements, forward currency contracts....glass box? Black box?
Sheeet hits the fan, does it all go "Poof" or are you bigly wealthier?
Dunno.
Best Regards,
Baseball Fan

For the past seven years PQTIX has done an excellent job of delivering positive returns while consistently zagging when equities zig.
As a retired and conservative investor, I have been trying to follow the motto of another investor who once posted the following: "I don't really need a lot more money - but I certainly don't want to lose a lot. I need to remind myself to err on the side of caution."
Until the proverbial dust settles, I have been sleeping well at night with only 10% of my portfolio in PQTIX and the rest in cash/MM.
Good luck,
Fred

So...anyone else notice that Fan Favorite, Hussy, HSGFX has now ahead of Fan Favorite Woody ARKK, over the past 3 years...?
Anyone else notice that Hussy is ahead of Fan Favorite Groovy, PRWCX for the past 2.5 years?
I know, I know, hasn't been great over the past 10+ years...but let's talk in 6 months...wonder if Hussy will pull ahead looking back 5,10+ years?
Don't count it out....who knows, right?
Baseball Fan

Some friends of ours in SF got a generous promotion from Toyota to buy a fuel cell vehicle. It included a large credit to buy fuel. I don't remember the exact numbers. But they were pretty darn tickled to buy it in comparison to getting another Prius.

That’s interesting. Besides burning hydrogen for propulsion another approach is the fuel cell, which as I understand it, works by combining hydrogen and oxygen. Besides generating electricity, fuel cells produce water as a byproduct. They’ve been been used in manned space flight for many years.
On the investment level, Barron’s recent deep dive into the future of autos tended to disparage Toyota for not doing much with rechargeable electric vehicles. It also mentioned their alternative hydrogen fuel program.

Yes, lumber is going thru the roof, has been for several years.
In the mean time our forests are being consumed by forest fires.
We need to get back to logging, letting ranchers run cattle in forests, create fire breaks and clear cuts to improve live feed.
I expect my Home Owners Insurance will go up again 15 to 20% because of the cost of replacement.

PCFBY is a very thinly traded ADR (about 2K avg volume). You could set limit-buy and forget it. You bought RGR instead to do what? (-:)

...To do what? Well, to di-worse-ify. I taught riflery at summer camp a million years ago. There's even more demand these days for guns. Not just for hunting, but to make the crazy-ass militia-types happy. Last time I was target shooting with my friend was too long ago. Fun. (Spell-checker does not like the word, riflery? Screw it, then.). RGR was on my watch-list. Still allegedly undervalued. (per Morningstar, per Simply Wall Street, per Barron's.)
*Anyhow, that share-price discrepancy rubs me the wrong way. Should not BE, dammit.

Kind of OT but I'm preparing to redo 2 bathrooms. For me, the materials cost is nothing compared to the price of labor these days .. I'm not using anything overly premium or exotic. Was this project not in response to a leak, I'd be putting it off for a few more years - I'm already about 25K over what I envisioned paying for, even in a VHCOL area.

Good advice for most to avoid panic, stress, or sleepless nights.
Me? I prefer knowing what's going on ... and in the case of market swoons, want to be aware of anything worth buying at depressed prices that I can hold for the long term, which has worked out very well for me over the years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/what-warren-buffett-says-to-do-when-markets-are-down.html
Warren Buffett, Jack Bogle and financial planners agree: When stocks are down, ‘don’t watch the market closely’
**Although the financial markets attempted a bounce back on Tuesday, they are largely in the midst of an extended sell-off that has punished some of the biggest names in stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s seven-week slump is its longest since 2001, while the S&P 500′s six-week losing streak is its longest since June 2011, CNBC reports.
While many investors saving for retirement may be wondering what to do in such a tumultuous market, Warren Buffett has said the answer is simple: Try not to worry too much about it.
“I would tell [investors], don’t watch the market closely,” Buffett told CNBC in 2016 during a period of wild market fluctuations.
The Oracle of Omaha added that investors who buy “good companies” over time will see results 10, 20 and 30 years down the road. “If they’re trying to buy and sell stocks, they’re not going to have very good results,” he said. “The money is made in investing by owning good companies for long periods of time. That’s what people should do with stocks.”
These gurus are probably right, buy cheap companies now and hold 10 -20 yrs**
They maybe exactly right long term
Problem folks maybe dead in 20 30 years or companies may not be around 30 yrs,
Maybe better buy sectors etfs instead

And he did. But it wasn't pretty.
On the other hand, at the height of the 70s inflationary spiral I found some very decent "Mormon" bonds out of Utah for new electric generating plants at 14%. Did very well on those, until they were called after some three or four years.
It wasn't until many years later that I realized that those power plants were coal-burning units down at "Four Corners", and major polluters. Nobody thought about that sort of thing in the 70s.

I own it in a taxable account.
Capital gains the last two years have not bothered us. But this should make the fund more attractive to people further up the ladder.
Will it be active? Or will they create a formal index?

I have read Weiner for years, as the newsletter is cheap although he rarely changes anything in the portfolios. However, it would not be my first choice for income, as his income portfolio looses 20% when the market crashes.
Having said that, he is usually correct about individual Vanguard funds in the long run. There are lots of ways to play healthcare, I just don't see any reason to believe Hynes can all of a sudden "get it right".
RYH is an interesting idea. Buffet just bailed on BYM and bought McKesson. Maybe he knows something

Looking for advice, opinions. Any thoughts are appreciated.
Given the expectation of more interest rate increases, messy world events, stock market volatility, inflation, what investment categories would best preserve money. I have enough for retirement but I don't want to lose any more (year to date -15% in dollars, -3% inflation).
Which of these would you choose?
dividend stocks VHYAX
60/40 funds VBIAX
40/60 funds VWINX
intermediate bonds DODIX
short term bonds FNSOX
cds (3%, 3 years?)
Other suggestions?
gold (in what form?)
real estate (in what form?)
Thanks.

“CHICAGO, May 16, 2022 – After more than 30 years of operations in the country, McDonald’s Corporation announced it will exit the Russian market and has initiated a process to sell its Russian business. This follows McDonald’s announcement on March 8, 2022, that it had temporarily closed restaurants in Russia and paused operations in the market. The humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, and the precipitating unpredictable operating environment, have led McDonald’s to conclude that continued ownership of the business in Russia is no longer tenable, nor is it consistent with McDonald’s values.”
McDonalds Press Release
On a more practical investment level, the ongoing fracturing of international cooperation / codependence can’t be good for the individual economies. Can it? I’m thinking less innovation, higher production costs, higher inflation, more shortages and bottlenecks and more GDP devoted to various nations’ defense establishments.

I use RYH as a benchmark for the healthcare sector. Its performance and the VG fund are tied for 1 yr, but RYH has outperformed 3 and 5 yrs. The sector has disappointed in recent years, especially in biotech, as noted by @sma3.

The interview is another example of the declining usefulness of Barron's interviews. She doesn't say anything new, really. AI, Big Data, genomic revolution have been predicted to revolutionize health care for at least the last 20 years. No one talks about how the EHR has enabled Docs to just "Copy and paste" most data making it GIGO.
UNH has yet to demonstrate that owning physicians ( whose interests are directly opposed to the bottom line of a health insurance company) is a better business model that will be competitive. For years UNH has been the nastiest, most restrictive and most anti-patient health insurer around.
Every health care fund has MDs and PhDs, I assume who think they can predict which new drug or monoclonal antibody is going to be successful. It is hard to predict biological success in clinical problems before the results of the clinical trials are available.
Biogen is a classic example of pouring piles of money into a new drug that doesn't work, but then being stuck when you have to face the music. Having invested so much they can't let it go and fund "work arounds" and political pressure to get it approved.
I will pass on VGHCX and look for other options.

Hi @Baseball_Fan . There is a lot of risk in the markets, and some of it reminds me of Tulipmania with high valuations. Bitcoin is now down 35% YTD. Rising interest rates, high inflation, supply chain disruptions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have upended normal investment models. Price to Earnings have begun compressing as they often do during inflationary times with high valuations.
YTD, my baseline fund, the Vanguard Wellesley Fund, has lost 8%, while the Global Wellesley has done slightly better. Safe haven government intermediate bond funds are down 7% YTD while core bond funds are down 10%. As the markets started swooning, I sold the most volatile and added better performers including real return and commodities. I maintain a balanced portfolio, and am down less than the Wellesley fund.
I favor low volatile funds, some of which have a tactical, or "black box" approach. I prefer to leave this to the pros to do the heavy lifting for me. I spread the risk across several of the funds so that any individual failure will not impact me much. I limit overall exposure in case of a swan event. I own multi-strategy (BAMBX, TMSRX), multi-alternative/macro-trading (GPANX, REMIX), systematic trend (PQTAX), real return (PIRMX/PZRMX, FSRRX), Infrastructure (GLFOX), along with utilities and consumer staples, all of which have reduced the volatility in my portfolio. I am also researching CABNX. Each has made more (lost less) than the Vanguard Wellesley. I have also increased cash.
I believe the risk of recession is high for next year. I suspect the markets will calm down in the near term and recover, but expect lower lows over the next two years.
Best wishes.

It is worth knowing that Dan Weiner who has published the Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors (for decades), long ago felt Hynes was doing such a poor job running VGHCX that he advised his readers to sell it and just use the Vanguard Health Care ETF VHT. He has between 8 and 14% of his portfolios in VHT
He has a "hold" ie Sell on VGHCX but rates VHT a buy still.

Mr. Wiener recommended the Vanguard Health Care Fund for many years.
The fund was subsequently sold in all three active Independent Advisor model portfolios -
Growth, Conservative Growth, and Income.
IIRC, Mr. Wiener pulled the plug on the Health Care Fund after Jean Hynes
became the Wellington Management CEO on June 30, 2021.

I have thought about these BRK problems too for a long time as a shareholder. On the optimistic side I feel:
1. Apple after Steve Jobs didn’t feel like it would be able to carry on. But strong institutions have a way to last and thrive will beyond the first generation.
2. We will get to a Day when the index fund holders will get direct ability to vote on proposals. It might be too much for most people to handle. But the options Are more likely to exist in the future than not. The form and design will be decided by the Congress or the sausage makers.
3. Notwithstanding the above, there will be a class of shareholders that will go along with Warren. Their children might not want the shares either. Being an investor today requires having faith in institutional strength beyond the next few years COMPARED to institutional strength elsewhere.

This sentence that @msf posted from Buffett “because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.” is the most worrisome to me as a holder of the stock.
It will enable larger institutions and shareholders to exert a lot more influence and control than they are able to today. I think it represents a very big risk to the future of the company post Warren.
When he first joined the Giving Pledge - I was concerned. Now more so. This MW story offers a good summary of my concerns: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffetts-estate-plan-to-benefit-charities-could-kill-berkshire-hathaway-as-we-know-it-11652386090