Barron's Revisits Pimco Income I have a special place in my heart for PIMIX.
It was the first bond fund I owned and the longest from around 2010 to 01/2018 at 50+% for
years.
It was the fund I used to change my stock/bond % until I retired
But since 01/2018, the magic has been gone. I sold and never looked back.
The cheap, on sale MBS trade was gone. PIMIX AUM grew like no other.
I found better funds to replace it, such IOFIX until ithe meltdown.
For
years now I stated that RCTIX invests mainly in securitized but have a better risk/reward and a much smaller AUM.
https://schrts.co/NIzzEXtpPIMIX is s still open...why?
I stopped listening to PIMIX managers, no matter what the question is, they still like securitized/MBS for over 15
years.
It doesn't matter to me what a fund made 3-5-15
years ago, I care what it has been doing lately with a look at the future.
Add to PIMIX it's derivatives and a black box tools and I'm skeptical.
Is PIMIX a good fund? Sure, but I continue to stay away.
One time Social Security payments mystery
Watching the Muskrats at SSA and reading YBB's post above, it almost reassures me that for many, many years I've not planned on SSA being a significant part of my retirement income that I would depend on ... if it's even around then. ;/
One time Social Security payments mystery When I turned 70 a few years back. I transitioned from freeloading off my wife's SSA record to benefits based on my own record. I started receiving two checks a month. Not good. They were deducting Medicare off both, of course. I called, I texted, I e-mailed, I visited the district office. Not interested. "They will catch it eventually." It took months. Then, of course, we differed on what the appropriate adjustment should be.
My advice on an SSA issue is to do what it takes to force a resolution ASAP.
As global tariff tensions rise, here's the latest on U.S. trade with top partners Yep, its all part of encouraging bilateral trade discussions, by helping foreign govts to focus on making trade arrangements which are less dis-advantageous to the US, than most prior admins have done.
S. Korea, I know a bit about -- have a friend who migrated from SK to the US. She volunteered that SK is extremely protectionist of its auto industry in particular. SK levies very heavy tariffs on any non SK autos. Meanwhile, they are given an easy / low-tariff market here in the states to sell plenty Kias and Hyundais.
The trade rules have been grossly uneven for decades against the US and in favor of our trading 'partners'. I suspect a lot of it was to 'buy' military/strategic allies to contain the USSR -- basically, we allowed the US middle class to be destroyed -- offshored. The Cold War ended 35 years ago. Long since time to require reciprocal trading arrangements.
Countries which will want access to our market will renegotiate/agree to the fair trade. Those that don't are free to develop their economies without a subsidy from the US working man/working woman.
Barron's Revisits Pimco Income
Once upon a time, PIMIX was my largest position in dfd, Roth and taxable accounts. Had held/added to those positions over several years. Own none now. Was really un-impressed with PIMCO's performance across all of its funds in the 2022 bond bear. For being the 'best' bond mgr in the world, they handled rising rates like a deer in the headlights. JMHO.
For those who like PIMIX's approach, there is a shorter-duration version PFTPX which might be of interest.
On the ETF side, PYLD has some decent non-PIMCO competitors in the multi-sector space: JPIE, CGMS, and BINC. I own none currently, favoring the ultra-short space, But when time to nibble, I will likely give the nod to BINC.
“There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets” @larryB - Yes, my younger self also responded differently from the current me. I was w*rking in 2000 and 2008 then and socking money into my retirement funds while they were cheaper. My equity position was approx 75% at the time. As I entered retirement 7
years ago, I reduced to 35% and then during the 2020 recession I timidly added to stocks.
I agree, this time may be completely different as noted by previous posters and threads. I have kept a significant (for me) cash stash, to aid my wife and me through this *downturn.* Enough to cover 2-3
years even if social security is impacted.
So my head isn’t in the sand regarding our nation, economy, and stock market; and I’m not looking to be *right* in this post. I am looking for direction just like everyone here, and find evaluating the data that the stock market is giving, even if it becomes stale immediately, that’s what I’ve got.
I may be looking at the wrong data and would always appreciate additional information.
“There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets” At Level5. Speaking for myself,,,, how I responded to significant market events 18 or ten years before retirement has little in common with my response in 2025. Younger me was out to grow my nest egg and old me is out to preserve it. The fear factor is real and that doesn’t even factor in that this time really is different. The rule of law no longer applies. Maybe in six months the fog of war will lift but maybe in 20 months a national emergency will be declared and the mid terms will be called off. Nobody knows.
The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks there is certainly nothing booming quite like the MAGA economic excuses sector.
it has dethroned doomsaying clickbait , wrong for 4 years, but still going strong.
Rekenthaler: it's not all about the tariffs I think it unwise to base investment decisions on any macro read. It’s hard enough for professionals to get it right. Why should a retail investor so attempt? Here’s an (albeit extreme)
example of how an early macro read based on national governance might have proven incorrect.
“In the space of four years, Nazi Germany changed from a defeated nation, a bankrupt economy, strangled by war debt, inflation and lack of foreign capital; into full employment with the strongest economy and biggest military power in Europe.”
Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown People are already nudging an absolutely *livid* AOC to run for his seat in the Senate at the Dem retreat this week.
Frankly, she's done a fair bit of growing up in recent years and 'calmed down' in some ways from when she first landed on the Hill as a 'novelty' ... she also tends to make more sense in her remarks/speeches now that she's seen how this town works and is much better informed, imho.
I'm not a New York resident but I'd certainly endorse that idea.
The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks S&P joins the Nasdaq in correction territory today - the Nasdaq had entered correction territory last week:
Wall Street tumbles to its first ‘correction’ since 2023 amid Trump’s escalating trade war
Economy Mar 13, 2025
NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street’s sell-off hit a new low Thursday after President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war dragged the S&P 500 more than 10 percent below its record, which was set just last month.
Payback time. VOO has averaged 17% yearly for past 5
years. And the QQQ has averaged over 22% annually over the same period. Does anyone seriously believe money grows on trees?
Trump is the catalyst for sure, but correction overdue. S&P fell about 50% during ‘07-‘09. So anything is possible. Current S&P level is nowhere near where I’d jump into U.S. large-caps. But am keeping an eye out for other potential sector buys. Always fun observing. Sometimes the baby goes overboard with the bathwater. :)
There are other markets. Utilities gained today. VPU is up 2.5% YTD (which would work out to a 12% annualized gain thru year end). And that’s on the heels of a 24% gain in 2024.
Fidelity’s SPAAX (money market fund) is currently yielding
3.98%. That’s likely to continue falling in the foreseeable future. Yes - higher quality bonds have been hot, but that trend can reverse the moment longer term interest rates move higher. Fed cutting at the short end could have the opposite effect farther out.
Schumer now says Democrats will support Republican funding bill to avoid shutdown Here are edited excerpts from a statement by Senator Schumer
as reported in The New York Times:
Trump and Musk Would Love a Shutdown. We Must Not Give Them One
Over the past two months, the United States has confronted a bitter truth: President Trump has taken a blowtorch to our country and wielded chaos like a weapon.
Most Republicans in Congress, meanwhile, have caved to his every whim. The Grand Old Party has devolved into a crowd of Trump sycophants and MAGA radicals who seem to want to burn everything to the ground.
As I have said many times, there are no winners in a government shutdown. But there are certainly victims. This week Democrats offered a way out: Fund the government for another month to give appropriators more time to do their jobs. Republicans rejected this proposal.
That leads Democrats to a difficult decision: Either proceed with the bill before us or risk Mr. Trump throwing America into the chaos of a shutdown. This, in my view, is no choice at all.
For sure, the Republican bill is a terrible option. It is deeply partisan. It doesn’t address this country’s needs. But even if the White House says differently, Mr. Trump and Elon Musk want a shutdown. We should not give them one. The risk of allowing the president to take even more power via a government shutdown is a much worse path.
To be clear: No one on my side of the aisle wants a government shutdown. Members who support this continuing resolution do not want that. Members who oppose it do not want that. As bad as passing the continuing resolution would be, I believe a government shutdown is far worse.
First, a shutdown would give Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk permission to destroy vital government services at a significantly faster rate than they can right now. Under a shutdown, the Trump administration would have wide-ranging authority to deem whole agencies, programs and personnel nonessential, furloughing staff members with no promise they would ever be rehired.
Second, In a protracted shutdown, House and Senate Republicans could bring bills to the floor to reopen only their favored departments and agencies while leaving other vital services that they don’t like to languish.
Third, shutdowns mean real pain for American families. For example, a shutdown could cause regional Veterans Affairs offices to reduce even more of their staffs, further delay benefits processing and curtail mental health services — abandoning veterans who earned, and depend on, those resources.
A shutdown could continue to slash the administrative staffs at Social Security offices — delaying applications and benefit adjustments and forcing seniors to wait even longer for their benefits.
A shutdown could further stall federal court cases and furlough critical staff members — denying victims and defendants alike their day in court, dragging out appeals and clogging the justice system for months or years.
Finally, a shutdown would be the best distraction Donald Trump could ask for from his awful agenda. Right now, Mr. Trump owns the chaos in the government. He owns the chaos in the stock market. He owns the damage happening to our economy. The stock market is falling, and consumer confidence is plummeting.
In a shutdown, we would be busy fighting with Republicans over which agencies to reopen and which to keep closed instead of debating the damage Mr. Trump’s agenda is causing.
I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country, to minimize the harms to the American people. Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open.
Barron's Revisits Pimco Income YBB,
Paywall for me.
"It’s unclear how (or, if) the Administration will calibrate policies with economic data and market signals."
The administration is shooting for a somewhat inverted yield curve and as I see it, that is how PIMIX is positioned for. What is up with M*, showing PIMIX holdings as of Sept 30?
I had not checked PIMIX stats in years. I did a quick check. seems like their webpage has changed quite a bit since I last checked. I had to download the Portfolio Stats spreadsheet to see some of the detail I thought I used to be able to see on their website.
In any case, as of Feb 28, it is 85% US and UK+ Australia another 15% with Germany and Japan short. Not a whole lot of EM which surprised me. But they can have naked currency exposures which i have not yet checked. I strongly urge forum members downloading the spreadsheet and checking the details.
“There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets” Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
Thanks. I wondered about junk bonds. Don’t track them much. I do track FKIQX (OEF) and INCM (it’s sibling ETF). Both hold a lot of junk and a lot of income producing stocks. Both seem to be unwinding in recent days. My guess is that high dividend equities are turning south along with junk.
I wouldn’t touch JBBB after the run it had in ‘24 - even before then …
“There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets” Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
“There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets” I think the term “the markets” as applied to the big U.S. stock indexes is misleading. These indexes are still very pricy. But I for one don’t think that is reason to hide out in cash or short term fixed income. Some reading and study may uncover some attractive valuations. Not a fan of gold, although it’s riding the wave and may go a lot higher before it breaks. Real assets, some commodities, real estate, foreign equities (and the extra kick from FX exchanges) may be attractive. There are also funds (OEF / ETF / CEF) that try to make lemonade out of lemons playing in the long-short area. The last I looked, oil was trading at $67. A few years ago it topped $100. There’s another thread on small caps’ relative value over large. But you might need to wait 2 or 3 years for the payoff - a time frame that seems very long by present day standards (including my own).
Far be it from me to offer investment advice. But I don’t buy the idea that there’s nowhere to invest except hiding out in cash.
Recession? Looks like one may be in the works. But there’s no way to know for sure when it will start, how long or how severe it could be. Nor does a recession preclude making money in certain types of bonds, equities long-short or market neutral funds. . Likely, some foreign economies would hold up or prosper. And then you get into the potential “double-dip” scenario - recession / uptick / recession. You could drive yourself silly trying to predict where things might lead. Hedge funds try. Many do well at it, while others loose fortunes and shut down.
A good motto: ”In inflation we trust.” Just as Chauncey Gardner trusted in the eventual regeneration of his garden come spring, we may trust that there will always be inflation. It’s characteristic of paper currencies. Protect your assets by investing to keep up with or outrun inflation.
NIH Cuts Create a Lost Generation of Scientists From Bloomberg News Absolutely agree! Poor policy often have significant consequences. The top talent will move overseas so they continue their research.
This is similar to the Alzheimer diseases during Reagan administration. The stoppage paused the momentum that last many years later. Ironically, Ronald Reagan was diagnosed with early stage of Alzheimer. Some said the vice president and the cabinet ran the country during the second term as signs of decline became serious. Nancy Reagan pleaded with the medical community to find treatment for the disease, but valuable time was wasted. Reagan passed away 7 years later according to their daughter, Patty Davis.
