@Observant1, why did you sell River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund RCTIC?

Not Observant, but I also used to own RCTIX. It underwent manager changes a few years ago, the performance started to suffer, and there seemed to be some uncertainty. So I sold it. It later improved and recovered. The fund is 55% securitized. When I was thinking about getting back into the fund, I saw that SYFFX, a securitized fund, was outperforming RCTIX. SYFFX outperforms RCTIX at every trailing period I look at. So if I when considering RCTIX, which has more than 50% exposure to the securitized sector (a sector I was underexposed to), I thought that I might as well go with a dedicated securitized fund that has performed better.

Grantham has been wrong for over 15 years.
Hussman and Arnott have been wrong for as long.
These people forgot that markets collapse many times based on special conditions/situations.
2008-MBS
2018-Fed raised rates 3-4 times within a year.
2020-Covid
2022-Inflation made the Fed raise rates very rapidly.
Valuation models aren’t gospel. They’re frameworks, often rigid ones. Markets don’t “obey” a PE ratio, a CAPE model, or any single metric. They move based on flows, positioning, liquidity, sentiment, and risk appetite — none of which those “experts” fully capture.
Articulation ≠ expertise. Some people build reputations on talking smoothly on CNBC or writing clever papers. But if you look under the hood, their track records are mediocre or not disclosed at all. A true expert has numbers behind them, not just words.
Macro talk rarely drives short-term results. Tariffs, inflation debates, and political narratives — they sound convincing, but the link between those stories and stock prices in the next 1–12 months is weak. Liquidity and momentum can swamp those factors.
The real experts are rare. They don’t talk much because they’re too busy managing money. They know the limits of prediction and don’t oversell their opinions.
So, how can anyone listen or invest with these guys?

He was on a episode of the Compound with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. I was super impressed with Grantham and his ability to speak intelligently about markets, the past, future estimates. But I still can't get around how poorly he's navigated the past 15 years.

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Aaron Back.
On this day in 1787, John Fitch launched the first successful steamboat run
in U.S. waters when his 45-foot boat smoked and boomed up the Delaware River.
But he never got costs under control, so Robert Fulton—whose own steamboat launch
came 20 years later—is instead remembered as the father of the steamboat.

Bengen's definition of "safe" means that an investor can maintain a certain withdrawal rate
over a 30-year timeframe regardless of market performance.
In a worst-case scenario (very low probability), the portfolio would be depleted after 30 years.
For those interested in leaving a legacy, they may wish to decrease the withdrawal rate accordingly.

Jeremy's next big prediction after getting the real estate fiasco correct was to begin heavily divesting from us markets and focusing on emerging markets. He has basically reiterated that stance for 15 years. since then, emerging markets have been 4X'ed by the US market. So eventually they'll be right. but to the normal investor who invests some in international, its going to take quite a correction to make up for 15 years of garbo returns in VWO.
signed person who overweights EM in his international allocation and has for 7 years.

It's worth noting that Bengen's "rule" assumes a 30-year time horizon and that the portfolio is emptied just as the investor takes her last breath. Most people don't want to cut things that close. They want a measure of safety in the event they last longer than 30 years, and most want to leave a legacy, perhaps a good-sized one. These additional factors militate in favor of a lower withdrawal rate (or a longer work life) and Bengen is up front about that.

@PopTart- Yes, both parties gerrymander. That's why I voted for California's independent redistricting commission, which I believe has worked very fairly. And now our governor wants to "temporarily" shut down the commission for five years to offset Trump's work in Texas. "Nice guys" just can't win.

[snip]
According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."

The Financial Times recently published their Business Book of the Year 2025—the longlist.
The following book was on the list.
In Outclassed: How the Left Lost the Working Class and How to Win Them Back, Joan C Williams looks
at the US left’s failure to challenge the rise of Trump, through the lens of workers and the working class.
She aims to explain how that happened and how the Democratic elite might use economic and political tools
to recover support.

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Aaron Back.
On this day in 1982, the stock market finished a week of shattering records,
with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 10.3% in five days.
Just days earlier, most investors had thought a bull market was still months, even years, away.

I owned OTCFX, in taxable and tax-deferred, for a couple decades. I sold it a few years ago when it started to underperform. I am assuming that a lot of investors did same.
Despite talk of a resurgence in small caps lately, the fund is only up 3% YTD. I did not buy it to diversify, rather to beat the S&P. Both 2023 & 2024 were underwhelming, as well. Though. by then I had sold.

My personal belief is that those people were there all along, but until the communications revolution of the internet and streaming video they were relatively isolated, without the ability to easily communicate with others of similar beliefs, and they were essentially isolated into fairly small but unorganized groups.
Now they've found each other, and all hell has broken loose.
Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.

You may have a point, Old Joe.
According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."

Wondering if Housel is onto something with his book, Psychology of Money...also wondering if the most proficient wealth advisors are adept at managing and growing wealth but also the soft side of understanding the human mind and emotions...understanding how we are carrying around a "blueprint" from our upbringing...
Recent convo with a health care provider friend who owns his own business...wealth advisor advised him to ladder CDs out for the next 5 years with half his monies and the other half in SP500 buffered ETN/ETF, with first 0% downside protection and upside capped at 10% annualy....maybe speaks to a balanced approach with a psychological safety net?

The T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock Fund (OTCFX) closed to most new investors on January 2, 2014.
At the time of the closure, the fund had experienced a significant increase in assets under management. As the fund becomes larger, it becomes more difficult for portfolio managers to invest in smaller companies without significantly impacting the stock prices of those companies.
But Small Cap Value has been open for many years. Maybe assets weren’t growing so fast in the small cap value fund?
It may have been closed to new investors in 2013-2016 time period.

The country is ideologically split. Ignorant and racist white males---many of them--- resent losing pride of place. So, they're engaging in a backlash. Criminal Doctor Orange feeds them the pap they want to hear. He's of the same ilk. Ignorant women, as well. As long as they're MAGA, the Orange Doink doesn't care.
So many voters spent their ballot on a man-child who is immature, spineless, ignorant; he is a Superfund site dressed up like a human. They are dragging down the country, and the rest of us along with them. And project 2025? If ever there was a recipe to subvert the USA...
But the Market possesses no more of a conscience than many of the voters. It will carry on apart from the politics, until it can't... How big is that deficit by now? And in 10 more years? Ask the CBO. By then, it will hardly be worth counting. The Orange coup continues apace, from within. It's an undeclared Civil War again.

Historical 60-40 (150+ Years)
A historical view is presented for allocation 60-40 over 150+ years (real returns; +5.56% for 60-40 vs +6.98% for 100-0; the cumulative return differences appear more dramatic) & 5 years (nominal returns?). The 2022-24 period (post-pandemic & Russia-Ukraine war) was among the worst periods for 60-40 & its drawdown was comparable to 100-0 (i.e. bonds offered no help) - it had never happened before.
For drawdowns, both the max & recovery period are important. A "Lake Volume" measure is used that seems to be the area of the drawdown (precise methodology isn't provided, but it could just be proportional to the average decline for the drawdown). Then, there are 2 ways to look at this in a Table shown:
(i) the worst 1929 era lake-vol was used as 100% (max "pain"), & then all others are shown as relative % or relative "pain" measure,
(ii) in each drawdown, the difference in normalized lake-vol % for 60-40 & 100-0 as reduction in pain with 60-40.
Of course, compared to the 1929 era, 2022-24 was a nonevent (but unique in its own way).

Morningstar Article https://www.morningstar.com/economy/6040-portfolio-150-year-markets-stress-test

Thanks @Old_Joe / Will run some tests on an unregistered device before sharing more. 5 monthly allowed. So only 1 remaining this month.
Re the discussion - I’ve held a Real Assets fund (big holding) for several years. Mine is only 5% in gold bullion. They are all different in their allocations. Right now it holds 25% in real estate. Also, I opened small “token” positions in Swiss Franc / JP Yen last week as a counter to dollar assets. If they rise they will mitigate downside a small bit. Very low allocation to equities in general. As article may note, longer dated bonds / bond funds aren’t a good choice if higher inflation accompanies the weaker dollar (likely). 1-5 year part of the curve may be appealing.
RAPAX is my real assets fund. Not as successful longer term as Price’s PRAFX. But it’s much less volatile than Price’s offering. I also have a lot of respect for this non-mainstream asset manager.

Tom Russo explains PM in his portfolio this way:

Philip Morris International (PM) as one of the most remarkable examples in the author's portfolio of a company with the capacity to reinvest and transform itself. Over the past 14 years, PM has invested aggressively into developing Reduced Risk Products (RRPs) like IQOS, VEEV ONE, and ZYN. IQOS, its flagship heat-not-burn product, is now a major success in Japan and expanding in Western Europe.

https://wealthtrack.com/how-to-make-the-cut-in-semper-vic-partners-private-funds-portfolio/

OP link has interviews with several advisors. Suggestions are typical - foreign stocks and bonds, US multinationals with overseas revenues and alternatives.
When dollar is weak, foreign investments and profits get a boost on currency conversions. Some of that has been going on already.
BTW, this also why foreign diversification hasn't worked for years as strong dollar imposed a penalty on currency conversion.

@rforno- Interesting to see American Funds EuroPacific and Washington Mutual again after all these years. We used both of them (but class A) fairly heavily when we were in our accumulation phase. American Funds was really good about allowing us to group all of our various IRAs and non-retirement accounts to meet their minimum for no-load purchases.