@Starchild, you must be refereing to the Kummelweck roll which has the kosher salt and caraway seeds...if in Buffalo you need to go to Charlie the Butcher's for one of these.
Come to think of it, I haven't been to Buffalo that often, last time was a couple years ago for work, but love the people, they are all so authentic, good decent folks, love the city, love the Beef on Weck's!
Baseball Fan

Yes! unfortunately, 350 miles is a treck for a sandwiche!

We can't force the timing, though. It might be starting here, but this week is just as likely to be nothing - a minor blip.
Remember Meredith Whitney's classic MUNI bond "crash" call back on 60 minutes years ago? Nice pearl necklace and all. The markets never listen to those in the prediction business.
The Schiller PE ratio can still make it all the way back up into the low 40s. Why not.

Actually, Hussman’s flagship gained a bit more than reported above by @Baseball_Fan
HSGFX +.29% yesterday.
As @Derf reported, PRPFX (which I also own) was up slightly. A miracle considering several of its components were soft on the day: equities, real estate, precious metals, treasury bonds. I was expecting much worse.
Cuggino‘s got the bond duration all the way down to 2.3 years. Helps explain why it held up better. Often mentioned as a “static allocation” fund, they do play around a bit - particularly with the bond component.

Yup, beef on Weck. I lived/worked for about 5 years in that ski resort town, about 90- minutes south of Buffalo. (Ellicottville.)

@Starchild, you must be refereing to the Kummelweck roll which has the kosher salt and caraway seeds...if in Buffalo you need to go to Charlie the Butcher's for one of these.
Come to think of it, I haven't been to Buffalo that often, last time was a couple years ago for work, but love the people, they are all so authentic, good decent folks, love the city, love the Beef on Weck's!
Baseball Fan

Not to get to far off-topic from the original post, but even EVDIX or EVDAX (Camelot Event Driven Fund - event driven) is having one of its best years since the fund commenced operations.

Hi @JD_co. I think there is plenty of room. I bought DBC a couple months ago so I'm up since that buy, but it's been trending up for about a year with the steepest up tick starting in Nov 2020. I believe it will be an up trend for a couple years to come. All commodities have been in a drought for a decade or more with low inflation, dropping interest rates and a strong $. Times they are a-changing. Just my 2-cents.

@BenWP - You can’t go wrong with RPGAX, IMHO. I expect it to lag a while until the dollar eventually weakens. Then the international exposure will begin to help. That said, the fees are high on it. FWIW - My equity exposure isn’t high and is primarily divided among RPGAX, DODBX and PRWCX.
Re TMSRX ... It isn’t intended to be a stand-alone investment. Those who put a lot of faith in their self-designed allocation models can benefit by using it as an offset / hedge against other risk assets they hold - or possibly as a diversifier. I believe all the fund houses, including TRP, tell you their funds aren’t intended to be stand-alone investment# - but in the case of TMSRX it’s really true.
And just noticed M* gives TMSRX a 4-star rating. LOL - that’s nuts (and I own it). IMHO it hasn’t been around long enough to rate. And trying even to rate a fund like this would seem tantamount to telling the wind to stop. Give it 5 years minimum and see what kind of personality it develops in many different market environments.

...if we get more yield-curve control policies in coming decades, (then) bonds become even more useless. Now, they are a lot less useful than they need to be.
Well, ya, my bond fund investments amount to a surrender, an admission that I won't make as much as I could if the money were in stocks. But the market has a rocket in its pocket, zooming upward toward unreasonable valuations and prices. I'm still making money, just standing pat. Just not as much. But you see, I'm NOT desperate to squeeze-out the conceivable ultimate maximum profit that might be possible. When it comes to the Sharpe ratio, these days I'm happy with a fair-to-middling performance--- deliberately. I want to make money, but not at any substantial level of risk, in retirement. But I'm still optimistic: I just renewed my US passport for another 10 years. :)

Independent eateries and bars have gone weeks without wings, owners say. Chicken breast prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, and wing prices have hit records, according to market-research firm Urner Barry. “The overall supply is constrained. That affects every part of the bird,” Wingstop Chief Executive Charlie Morrison said in an interview earlier this week. Wingstop said it is paying 26% more for bone-in chicken wings this year ... One reason for the higher prices is the chicken sandwich wars of recent years.
WSJ May 8, 2021

A Barron's conversation with the soon to be retired manager of TRBCX.
Link
Note: I'm able to access this article without a Barron's subscription.

I'm investing in etfs solely to avoid early redemption fees. If, for example, Fidelity would eliminate early redemption fees on their funds, I would buy their funds and reduce my etf purchases.

Hi Carew,
Fidelity eliminated short-term (under 60 day) fund trading fees from their own FIDO mutual funds years ago. Did you mean from all of their 3rd party fund offerings?

I think it is worthwhile ensuring that in the event of a substantial bear market with drops like 2008 and a duration like 1930's you have enough cash to avoid selling at the bottom.
It is possible that it will take five or more years for losses to recover, even after a modest bear market.
QQQ didn't hit it 2000 peak until 2015. DJIA lost 40% in the 1930's, was up only 5% in the 1970's and many of us can remember the loss of 10% in the 2001-2010.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-performed-over-the-last-100-years-51620421855?mod=past_editions
Having just entered retirement without a pension, I can ill afford to loose 30% of my savings nor wait ten years for it to come back.
To answer your question, if there is a substantial drop, I might DCA back in to about 50% of where I was at the start but little more.

I believe Baseball_Fan forgot one point. Would you & you're well thought out plans be able to withstand a long drawn out Mr. Market collapse of two or three years ? Patience, can & will slowly go away , at least for me . During the 2008-9 market fall I was able to make a few buys as the market sank. Then at some point I got caught in the headlights & the buys stopped ! I sold nothing so trying to buy back into the market wasn't a problem. Also age & wealth play into these so called plans.
To answer the questions , I'd be a buyer on the way down or possible on the way up. Time will tell.
Have a good weekend, Derf

I'm 71yo and have my Scheißfest plan all set. The plan is to do almost nothing.
My AA is almost 70% equities, all in mutual funds and ETFs. I keep 5 years of expenses in my credit union savings account. I am a low spender.
March 2020, I sold some ETFs in my taxable account where I could TLH. Anything that had gains, stayed. Within a few weeks, all that loose money was invested in new ETFs. So I'm fiddling with my taxes.
Since I likely won't need the money in my investment accounts, it doesn't matter what they do in the near term. I'm able to weather the storm, it seems. In March 2020, the value of my portfolio went down by more than my house is assessed, and I shrugged and did something else. This was part of my written plan. In late 2019, after a great year, I restated what do when the Scheiß hit the fan. Didn't know I would have to implement it so soon.

Watched this years annual meeting start to finish. It was a really interesting Q & A and not because of the news about ESG and the Funds like Blackrock trying to exert influence on Berkshire to address environmental reporting concerns. Although, Munger had some pretty succinct and pithy responses to those questions.
What struck me was how smart both Buffett and Munger are compared to the future leaders of Abel and Jain. One terrific example which struck me was the moderators question on whether BH would insure Elon and Space X trip to Mars. The immediate response from Jain was no- he’d pass. Buffett quickly followed up on Jains misstep by saying... it depends on how much the premium was and whether Musk was on the rocket. <— Just great instincts from a sage value investor- it depends on the price. Turns out, other viewers noticed the same: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-on-price-versus-value-morning-brief-095654774.html
That’s not to say that I’m not long on Berkshire or in the least bit concerned about the future leadership - I just appreciated the dichotomy between their experience.
View the Annual Meeting in its entirety: https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream/

@Michelg I owned LAND for a few years, as diversification and the dividend, but got concerned about the debt level and sold it. It also has a very large exposure to California farms, and the fire situation there gave me pause. My cousin runs an avocado farm and almost was burned out.
I have dipped my toe in commodity ETFs for awhile, using DBA, MOO, general natural resources ETFs HAP and a large copper company FCX. These are less inflation plays but more of a sustainable energy idea and climate change in general, without the high flying nature of ETFs solely focused on clean energy
Most of the ETFs focused on commodities are heavily concentrated in energy.
However, GCC from Wisdom tree is more broadly based with only 20% in energy.

@carew388: are you batting .388 on your stock and fund picks?
I can see playing the materials/natural resources sector by using one of my old favorites, FIW. It’s performance has been outstanding for the past 5 years and it does not have the volatility of other natural resources such as fossil fuels or lumber. It holds some great growth companies like Danaher and Ecolab and is light on international holdings. I think water is likely to be inflation-proof or even a beneficiary of rising rates.

@Rbrt: I doubt that I have my tax records for those years (2008-2012) as I jettison them after five years.

In February, my homeowners replacement coverage policy increased 29% with Chubb. I have not had a claim with them in 30 years. Being that I consider Chubb crème de la crème in this market, I will not look elsewhere.