The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022 Howdy folks,
It's going on as we watch. How can we play it?
All around us, not only in the US, but overseas as well, we're witnessing (and participating in) a General Strike by workers everywhere. 'Take this job and shove it. I ain't working here no more'.
Workers have more power than they've had in decades and they're using it. Deere and Kellogg are out and on the west coast, the TV and Movie peeps narrowly avoided a strike because management caved in on every issue. At Deere, they were offered 5-6% and the workers are saying, Stuff It. I seriously believe the west coast hospital workers will walk and think of their leverage. And folks, this is only the beginning. Pilots can't strike, but they sure can get sick. Oh, and think how easy it is right now to supplement your strike pay. McDonald's is hiring at $21 per hour. This seems to me that the workers are going to win. Tough to bet against them.
The pandemic has created a perfect storm for workers and employment in general.
1. Not safe to go to work because of the virus.
2. Kids at home.
3. Tired of receiving shit wages for shit work.
4. Additional unemployment benefits [although the bs the republicans spread about exacerbating the problem has proven to be just that - BS. Indeed, the states that cut benefits early not only didn't see any reduction in help wanted signs, but it actually hurt their overall economies more than the states that maintained them due to a reduced aggregate demand.]
5. Lack of some spending - travel, dining out, concerts, movies, etc. - has allowed many households to become cash flush.
6. Perfect opportunity to change careers.
7. Virtual options for financial gain - Ebay, Market Place, OnlyFans, etc. My barber has a friend, who is buying Amazon 2nds for peanuts and reselling them.
Sokay, how to play?
Watch for the companies that figure it out and take the 'high road' vs. the ones that don't. A very easy tell, is whether there are Help Wanted signs or not. The businesses with pervasive help wanted signs are having a very tough time even staying open. How many restaurants do you know with reduced hours and menus? Which are simply raising wages and benefits and not bitching.
New industries that get it (e.g. pot. I was talking with a budista and he said, they were receiving great pay and benefits and it was the best job he'd had in years).
Short? Anyone that relies on truck drivers. Again, POT. To drive a semi, you have to have a CDL. With a CDL, you are subject to random drug testing and pot has a half life of 30 days. Hell, they're pushing to allow teenagers to drive. Feh, in my state, you've got to be 21 to buy pot.
Just a start of a discussion.
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono
Long term owner of MWTRX I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!
If your heart is set on Pimco Income, you may be able to buy the somewhat more expensive institutional I-3 share class PIPNX in
your Fidelity 401K. It's a solid long term holding, though it has at best been mediocre in the past three
years relative to its peers (46th percentile). You can see that in
this M* chart, which compares it to the average multisector bond fund (which it tracks very closely) and to the average high yield bond fund (which has greater volatility but otherwise follows a similar path).
Long term owner of MWTRX Thanks Edmond...great insights! Full disclosure, our household has 3 retirement accounts currently - IRA Rollover (Me), IRA Rollover (Wife) and a 401k (Me at my current Employer)
The 3 Bond Funds I own (1 in each) are DODIX, BCOIX and GIBLX...
GIBLX is in my 401k and this account s my active/tactical account where I take more risk and move $$$ around. The Rollovers are pretty stable and I like to make minor adjustments.
Next move is to find a Fund to pair with GIBLX in my 401k...I've owned PIMIX in the past and have looked at PTIAX too. I have been tracking TCEIX but I can get that exposure with PIMIX...
Bond Funds are not as easy to research with their returns all muted in the past 5 years and not knowing whats under the hood. Cash isn't cash and Gov't issues could be multiple securities. Derivatives, Sovereign/Non-Dollar denominated debt...
Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity @Mark, Thanks for the Jim Sloan's articles. We invested in FMSDX in our tax-deferred accounts several
years ago. It appeared that I bonds cannot be purchased through brokerages and they can purchase only through TreasuryDirect site and the tax refund. I checked my brokerages and only treasury (not I bonds) can be purchased directly.
With that said, we are inclined to use them in our taxable account, but we are unsure how I bond being used in future retirement. So there is much learning to be done.
Long term owner of MWTRX KHaw -- with Tad Rivelle leaving 12/2022, I'd be looking to leave too.
Baird and D&C are both very good funds. WRT funds at Fido, here are a couple core/core+ funds you may wish to consider/evaluate as to suitability:
GIBLX. These guys tend more to make "high conviction" (read riskier) bets then some other funds. Nothing too wild. And they are usually right, if not immediately, then eventually.
PTIAX = I like the way these guys think/explain their positions. They tend to own pieces of the bond market which other funds don't. To that extent they could serve as a diversifier vs. other bond fund positions.
OMBAX. (mortgage) Actively-managed, since there is little credit risk/spreads, the managers throttle portfolio duration up/down depending on their outlook for the direction of rates. They are adept at this. I've been using this (along with another fund I will discuss below) as a place to park cash for a couple years. Duration is presently less than 1/2 of the AGG. It has discretion to shift duration 2-10 years. They generally take on duration ONLY when they are compensated to do so.
I think PIMCO funds should be given careful consideration. PIMCO is Bill Gross' enduring legacy. Fidelity offers "A" shares. If you have serious money in bond funds, I would encourage buying institutional-class shares. Many are available at Wellsfargo/Wellstrade for no minimums.
PIMIX - my longest-lived, and 2nd largest fund position. As a multi-sector fund, its more volatile than the "core-plus" funds. But its returns justify the modestly higher volatility.
PTRIX (mortgage). My largest bond position. Its among the least-known of PIMCO funds - M* perennially mis-classifies the fund as 'core-plus". Because of its low risk profile its returns seem paltry vs much riskier "core-plus" offerings. PTRIX is really a short/inter govt fund. Like OMBAX (mentioned above), the managers make tactical interest rate bets. They excel at this. Duration moves 1-7 years. This fund is a bit more "free wheeling" than its sister GNMA fund PDMIX. Slightly better returns, edges out just a wee bit more on the risk scale with more non-agencies. Still, very safe. -- For those thinking "mortgages=BORING", keep in mind the "core bond funds" (MWTRX, PTTRX, etc) have been largely managed to be extremely safe "cash like" funds since the GFC. In the past 5 or so years, PTRIX has earned MWTRX-like returns with only 2/3 of the volatility...
good luck!
Growth Bubble: Making Money on Companies That Make No Money Interesting article
@LewisBraham.
Hmm. Does this take into account companies are less capital intensive than they were 20-30
years ago? Many growth companies are in the tech segment...building out their eco system and capturing customers ala Apple back in the day. Who cares if the customer is profitable now, they will be way profitable over the next five
years. Many companies are bought for their technology before they become profitable...MuleSoft, by Salesforce, CRM. Look at Avalara, not profitable I believe but growing revenues, taking market share.
Last I checked non profitable companies don't really pay much tax either...think Bezos and AMZN...churned thru money, not profitable, huge free cash flow to invest back in the business, took market share, scaled business, didn't pay much in taxes...anytime they want they can flip the switch and scale profits
I'm on the fence on this one, respect the wisdom of GMO etc, but wonder if this thought process requires adjustment to today's world?
Best,
Baseball Fan
Growth Bubble: Making Money on Companies That Make No Money The Russell 3000 Growth Index was up 84% cumulatively over the last two years through August (more than double the return of its Value counterpart).
Thank you. That is why I preferred actively managed growth over growth-index funds and ETF. I read that small cap stocks in Russel 2000 have even bigger issue.
Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity @lynnbolin2021, thank you for your articles. I too have been reducing risk and using more asset allocation funds including FMSDX. Just want to simply life. Your research helped considerably to narrow down the vast choices available.
Note that the bond portion of FMSDX has a longer duration of 8.3
years than many intermediate term bonds, in the range of 5-6
years. This fund holds several bond sectors ranging from treasury to EM debts. Rate hike may impact this fund more than those funds with shorter duration.