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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Obviously a typo.
    If this board were typical of the broader population, a defined contribution pension would be adequate. Lots of well informed and smart cookies here. However, John Q. Public, on a wider scale, is quite lax at planning. Most can’t plan 6-months ahead - let alone 30-50 years out. So they are left struggling in their senior years on SS and maybe a part time job.
    One feature of well run and well funded DB pensions is the almost unlimited time horizon they have to invest over. Allows for greater risk/reward over time. Individuals can’t hope to match that. Our lifetimes are too short.
  • AAII
    I have been using AAII off and on for a number of years mostly because they bring a different perspective to stock and fund analysis as opposed to M* and a host of buy-side analysts. I do not use their 'Shadow Stock' portfolio because it consists of too many stocks I know very little about and don't have the time to dig in to even though they claim to have good success with it. They also feature a number of different stock screening methods following the likes of Buffett, Lynch, etc. which are fun to play around with. I'm not impressed enough to shell out $2500 however.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    However, if you are a conservative investor looking for a low risk floating rate fund you may want to check out MWFRX/MWFLX. It's standard deviation is 6.2%, according to M*, and during the market crash in March 2020 it lost "only" 8.35%, whereas RSFLX lost 14%.
    Here is what dtconroe said about the fund in January 2020:
    "The Bank Loan/Floating rate bond oef, that I would most likely invest in, is MWFRX/MWFLX. It is from a stable of bond oefs, offered by Met West, and it has an established history of being managed very conservatively, at least "conservative" for a sector HY bond category."
    Since we are talking about HY bond funds, and the OP said to "Keep it coming", may I suggest also checking out OSTIX, a short term HY fund that according to M* is "[...] a unique high-yield offering with a strong risk-adjusted return profile, particularly over the longer term." It also rates the fund's risk as "low".
    While its YTD total return is a respectable 5.14%, its 3, 5, 10 and 15 year returns range consistently between 5 and 6%. The fund's average effective duration is currently 2.28, and the standard deviation 5.74%.
    OSTIX's consistent performance over the past 15 years recommends it as a possible long term holding. Thought it deserves to be mentioned.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Anyone adding Chinese stocks /mutual funds etf?
    One interesting ETF is XSOE Wisdom tree "ex-state owned industries" that focuses on companies not contaminated by state control, figuring they will preform better.
    Let's say you have two CEOs in China. One runs a company that is state controlled and has a long-standing relationship with the government, which understands exactly how the company operates. Now let's say the other is the CEO of an upstart extremely popular tech company that has largely been ignored by the government for several years. The latter tech CEO has become extremely rich, powerful and influential in China's politics. Which company do you think the Chinese government will regulate more going forward so that its operations radically change?
  • Robert T. Gardiner announced future plans to change his role at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834421020090/fp0069682_497.htm
    497 1 fp0069682_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST: GRANDEUR PEAK FUNDS
    Grandeur Peak Global Contrarian Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts Fund
    (the “Funds”)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 19, 2021 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND
    PROSPECTUS DATED AUGUST 31, 2021, AS SUBSEQUENTLY AMENDED
    On October 19, 2021, Robert T. Gardiner announced future plans to change his role at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”) in connection with an extended sabbatical commencing on approximately July 1, 2022 (the “Effective Date”).
    During the sabbatical, Mr. Gardiner intends to continue to serve as Chairman and member of the Board of Managers of the Adviser but, for a period of approximately three years following the Effective Date, he will no longer serve in a guardian portfolio management role for these Funds. Therefore, all references to Mr. Gardiner in the Summary Prospectuses and Prospectus will be deleted as of that date.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • 2021 capital gains distribution estimates (mutual funds and ETFs)
    I'm looking in the usual place for the TRP estimated distributions. No show so far. This week they usually publish. I also noted that by the end of November they usually have a closer estimate to the real numbers.
    I used to be in BRUFX and never found any estimations, even when I called. I sold the fund a few years ago, mostly because of the estimated distributions being a state secret.
    Dave
    TRP is up now.
    Waiting on Parnassus next -- they tend to do distributions early in mid-Nov.
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    @Derf: Yes, indeed. I organized pickets one year and carried my 2-year-old daughter on the line another. We had a number of strikes.
    It's worth saying that before MI became a "right-to-work" state, the consequences for striking illegally (i.e., against a public employer) were not strictly enforced by the Employment Relations Commission or the courts for the period of time when the parties were still at the table negotiating. Nowadays, I could well imagine a different application of the law given the party in power and the polarization of the electorate. Indiana and Wisconsin, which also were strong union states, saw public employee bargaining rights and protections severely curtailed in the last 10-12 years. An effort to recall Scott Walker in WI failed and the residents of IN did nothing when Mitch Daniels, by executive order, terminated public employee rights to bargain. There has been a failure, maybe even an apathy, to prevent the erosion of the hard-won rights of labor, even though it was obvious what was happening. Michael Moore has some valuable insights on this lamentable process. I believe it was he who pointed out that the failure of all and sundry to stand up to Reagan's firing of the air-traffic controllers set the tone for the all-out attack on labor and union members we have witnessed in the past 40 years.
    The Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller's 1946 confessional poem regarding German apathy in the face of the Nazis, contains this verse:
    Then they came for the trade unionists
    And I did not speak out
    Because I was not a trade unionist
  • 2021 capital gains distribution estimates (mutual funds and ETFs)
    I'm looking in the usual place for the TRP estimated distributions. No show so far. This week they usually publish. I also noted that by the end of November they usually have a closer estimate to the real numbers.
    I used to be in BRUFX and never found any estimations, even when I called. I sold the fund a few years ago, mostly because of the estimated distributions being a state secret.
    Dave
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    I use to be a fan of MWTRX, but stopped owning it a couple of years ago--glad I did after seeing its abysmal 2021 performance. I am not a fan of Intermediate Core/Core Plus funds which have struggled overall in 2021. If I was only interested in a well known and established Intermediate Core/Core Plus fund, to replace MWTRX, I would tend to lean toward DODIX. If you are looking for a lower risk and safer fund, then PTRIX, is a logical choice. Overall, sticking in this category, I personally like ANBEX. I will just add that I don't like PIMIX as a possible replacement for MWTRX--I consider PIMIX as a previously great fund, built on its performance shortly after the 2007/2008 financial crash, but it has ballooned into an AUM bloated fund, that now has to dabble in more risky assets to try and produce its income. Just recently PIMCO introduced PEGIX, a cousin of PIMIX in the multisector category, run by some of the same good PIMIX managers, and PEGIX is a very attractive newcomer, with great promise. I personally am focusing on shorter duration funds, that should do better in an inflationary market, and it is hard to find those in the Intermediate Core/Core Plus category.
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Here's an NPR piece about how Ford raising his workers' wages helped to create the middle class. It concludes with the statement:
    [A] century after Henry Ford started paying $5 a day, it's not at all clear that today's employers and workers can reach a similar bargain and reboot a 21st century version of the working middle class.
    https://www.npr.org/2014/01/27/267145552/the-middle-class-took-off-100-years-ago-thanks-to-henry-ford
    Just maybe it can happen.
    This will benefit not only workers now but when they retire. The Social Security Primary Insurance Amount (what you'd get if you retired at your Full Retirement Age) is based on your past earnings, adjusted to the year you can first retire (minus 2). That adjustment is determined not by inflation, but rather by the rise in average wages.
    So as the quality of life for workers rises over time (the so called "American Dream"), so does the value of one's SS benefits.
    https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html
    I'm cautiously optimistic about consumer discretionary. Not the Tiffany's, but the Disney's. Sure, costs at places like Disneyland will rise, but as in Ford's time maybe now many people will be able to afford that vacation or that night out at Applebee's that they've been putting off. And not just because of the pandemic.
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    @bee
    Agree. One should/may choose over many years to continue to adjust an equity portfolio, as industries and offerings change; to match what one and others "use/want/need".
    These methods are part of our continued/current exposure to healthcare as with FSMEX and other broad healthcare; as well as technology areas.
    Excuse the serious drift of this thread.............
    Catch
  • The General Employment Strike of 2020-2022
    Howdy folks,
    It's going on as we watch. How can we play it?
    All around us, not only in the US, but overseas as well, we're witnessing (and participating in) a General Strike by workers everywhere. 'Take this job and shove it. I ain't working here no more'.
    Workers have more power than they've had in decades and they're using it. Deere and Kellogg are out and on the west coast, the TV and Movie peeps narrowly avoided a strike because management caved in on every issue. At Deere, they were offered 5-6% and the workers are saying, Stuff It. I seriously believe the west coast hospital workers will walk and think of their leverage. And folks, this is only the beginning. Pilots can't strike, but they sure can get sick. Oh, and think how easy it is right now to supplement your strike pay. McDonald's is hiring at $21 per hour. This seems to me that the workers are going to win. Tough to bet against them.
    The pandemic has created a perfect storm for workers and employment in general.
    1. Not safe to go to work because of the virus.
    2. Kids at home.
    3. Tired of receiving shit wages for shit work.
    4. Additional unemployment benefits [although the bs the republicans spread about exacerbating the problem has proven to be just that - BS. Indeed, the states that cut benefits early not only didn't see any reduction in help wanted signs, but it actually hurt their overall economies more than the states that maintained them due to a reduced aggregate demand.]
    5. Lack of some spending - travel, dining out, concerts, movies, etc. - has allowed many households to become cash flush.
    6. Perfect opportunity to change careers.
    7. Virtual options for financial gain - Ebay, Market Place, OnlyFans, etc. My barber has a friend, who is buying Amazon 2nds for peanuts and reselling them.
    Sokay, how to play?
    Watch for the companies that figure it out and take the 'high road' vs. the ones that don't. A very easy tell, is whether there are Help Wanted signs or not. The businesses with pervasive help wanted signs are having a very tough time even staying open. How many restaurants do you know with reduced hours and menus? Which are simply raising wages and benefits and not bitching.
    New industries that get it (e.g. pot. I was talking with a budista and he said, they were receiving great pay and benefits and it was the best job he'd had in years).
    Short? Anyone that relies on truck drivers. Again, POT. To drive a semi, you have to have a CDL. With a CDL, you are subject to random drug testing and pot has a half life of 30 days. Hell, they're pushing to allow teenagers to drive. Feh, in my state, you've got to be 21 to buy pot.
    Just a start of a discussion.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    I can't buy PIMIX in Fidelity 401k...Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr! I get so disappointed when that happens...it happens a lot!
    If your heart is set on Pimco Income, you may be able to buy the somewhat more expensive institutional I-3 share class PIPNX in your Fidelity 401K.
    It's a solid long term holding, though it has at best been mediocre in the past three years relative to its peers (46th percentile). You can see that in this M* chart, which compares it to the average multisector bond fund (which it tracks very closely) and to the average high yield bond fund (which has greater volatility but otherwise follows a similar path).
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    Thanks Edmond...great insights! Full disclosure, our household has 3 retirement accounts currently - IRA Rollover (Me), IRA Rollover (Wife) and a 401k (Me at my current Employer)
    The 3 Bond Funds I own (1 in each) are DODIX, BCOIX and GIBLX...
    GIBLX is in my 401k and this account s my active/tactical account where I take more risk and move $$$ around. The Rollovers are pretty stable and I like to make minor adjustments.
    Next move is to find a Fund to pair with GIBLX in my 401k...I've owned PIMIX in the past and have looked at PTIAX too. I have been tracking TCEIX but I can get that exposure with PIMIX...
    Bond Funds are not as easy to research with their returns all muted in the past 5 years and not knowing whats under the hood. Cash isn't cash and Gov't issues could be multiple securities. Derivatives, Sovereign/Non-Dollar denominated debt...
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @Mark, Thanks for the Jim Sloan's articles. We invested in FMSDX in our tax-deferred accounts several years ago. It appeared that I bonds cannot be purchased through brokerages and they can purchase only through TreasuryDirect site and the tax refund. I checked my brokerages and only treasury (not I bonds) can be purchased directly.
    With that said, we are inclined to use them in our taxable account, but we are unsure how I bond being used in future retirement. So there is much learning to be done.
  • Long term owner of MWTRX
    KHaw -- with Tad Rivelle leaving 12/2022, I'd be looking to leave too.
    Baird and D&C are both very good funds. WRT funds at Fido, here are a couple core/core+ funds you may wish to consider/evaluate as to suitability:
    GIBLX. These guys tend more to make "high conviction" (read riskier) bets then some other funds. Nothing too wild. And they are usually right, if not immediately, then eventually.
    PTIAX = I like the way these guys think/explain their positions. They tend to own pieces of the bond market which other funds don't. To that extent they could serve as a diversifier vs. other bond fund positions.
    OMBAX. (mortgage) Actively-managed, since there is little credit risk/spreads, the managers throttle portfolio duration up/down depending on their outlook for the direction of rates. They are adept at this. I've been using this (along with another fund I will discuss below) as a place to park cash for a couple years. Duration is presently less than 1/2 of the AGG. It has discretion to shift duration 2-10 years. They generally take on duration ONLY when they are compensated to do so.
    I think PIMCO funds should be given careful consideration. PIMCO is Bill Gross' enduring legacy. Fidelity offers "A" shares. If you have serious money in bond funds, I would encourage buying institutional-class shares. Many are available at Wellsfargo/Wellstrade for no minimums.
    PIMIX - my longest-lived, and 2nd largest fund position. As a multi-sector fund, its more volatile than the "core-plus" funds. But its returns justify the modestly higher volatility.
    PTRIX (mortgage). My largest bond position. Its among the least-known of PIMCO funds - M* perennially mis-classifies the fund as 'core-plus". Because of its low risk profile its returns seem paltry vs much riskier "core-plus" offerings. PTRIX is really a short/inter govt fund. Like OMBAX (mentioned above), the managers make tactical interest rate bets. They excel at this. Duration moves 1-7 years. This fund is a bit more "free wheeling" than its sister GNMA fund PDMIX. Slightly better returns, edges out just a wee bit more on the risk scale with more non-agencies. Still, very safe. -- For those thinking "mortgages=BORING", keep in mind the "core bond funds" (MWTRX, PTTRX, etc) have been largely managed to be extremely safe "cash like" funds since the GFC. In the past 5 or so years, PTRIX has earned MWTRX-like returns with only 2/3 of the volatility...
    good luck!
  • Growth Bubble: Making Money on Companies That Make No Money
    Interesting article @LewisBraham.
    Hmm. Does this take into account companies are less capital intensive than they were 20-30 years ago? Many growth companies are in the tech segment...building out their eco system and capturing customers ala Apple back in the day. Who cares if the customer is profitable now, they will be way profitable over the next five years. Many companies are bought for their technology before they become profitable...MuleSoft, by Salesforce, CRM. Look at Avalara, not profitable I believe but growing revenues, taking market share.
    Last I checked non profitable companies don't really pay much tax either...think Bezos and AMZN...churned thru money, not profitable, huge free cash flow to invest back in the business, took market share, scaled business, didn't pay much in taxes...anytime they want they can flip the switch and scale profits
    I'm on the fence on this one, respect the wisdom of GMO etc, but wonder if this thought process requires adjustment to today's world?
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Growth Bubble: Making Money on Companies That Make No Money
    The Russell 3000 Growth Index was up 84% cumulatively over the last two years through August (more than double the return of its Value counterpart).
    Thank you. That is why I preferred actively managed growth over growth-index funds and ETF. I read that small cap stocks in Russel 2000 have even bigger issue.
  • Best No Load and NTF Funds Available at Fidelity
    @lynnbolin2021, thank you for your articles. I too have been reducing risk and using more asset allocation funds including FMSDX. Just want to simply life. Your research helped considerably to narrow down the vast choices available.
    Note that the bond portion of FMSDX has a longer duration of 8.3 years than many intermediate term bonds, in the range of 5-6 years. This fund holds several bond sectors ranging from treasury to EM debts. Rate hike may impact this fund more than those funds with shorter duration.