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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Finominal.com's Review of Vanguard's Primecap Fund [VPMCX]
    Finominal (2017- ) is a UK-based fintech committed to independent and free financial information (don't they all start that way?).
    https://finominal.com/AboutUs?country=US
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    ...also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
    Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company?

    What is this "bitcoin" you speak of?
    As regards fund managers, I keep looking at AQR funds. They stunk it up a few years back, and then changed out a bunch of their managers. Since then, they have been performing very well. Can they be trusted?
    HMEZX - a super steady merger-arb fund, but the Fund Manager (Dondero) has a checkered past. Is there hidden risk there?
  • A Conservative portfolio design
    I noticed nobody has proposed for consideration a portfolio solely made up of ETFs...kind of surprising as there are many model portfolio's like that floating out there..."The Lazy Portfolio", the three ETF portfolio, etc...
    Also find it interesting that some are looking at past results as a comparison...last 15 years relatively low inflation until recently...also tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Who knows that the future holds...some of you might remember a few years ago when I mentioned high grade rubies, you can fit a million dollar of them in your sock and no one would know..also interesting that no one has mentioned bitcoin...are we just a bunch of older dudes fighting the last war or are we going to open our minds and skate to where the puck is headed not where it is and has been?
    Looking forward for this exercise, I am considering "continuity of fund managers", what are their ages and what is the bench strength and financial soundness of the fund company? Maybe need some international exposure as what if dollar weakens substantially?
    What other inputs are folks pondering that maybe haven't been discussed yet?
  • Ransomware attack on Patelco Credit Union
    Just as we were extolling the services of credit unions, I received an email today informing me (see the quoted text below) that my information was compromised. I closed the account a couple of years ago and that was the last of the small financial institution relationship I had.
    "What Information Was Involved?
    The information in the accessed databases included first and last name with Social Security number, Driver’s License number, date of birth, and/or email address. Not every data element was present for every individual."
    That is an extensive breach which makes me think their data segregation was not proper.
    "[W]e contained the threat by proactively disabling all unauthorized access to our network, restoring all data, and immediately commencing a prompt and thorough investigation. We also notified law enforcement. As part of our investigation, we worked very closely with external cybersecurity professionals experienced in handling these types of incidents. The investigation revealed that an unauthorized party gained access to our network on May 23, 2024, leading to access to the databases on June 29, 2024. Following the investigation and a thorough review of the data involved, we confirmed on August 14, 2024, that the accessed databases contained your personal information."
    Patelco does not say if they paid the attackers but they say they restored all the data. I think in most cases the Ransomware attackers delete the information accessed if they are paid. How can I find out if they paid the Ransomware attackers?
    "What You Can Do
    To help protect your information, we are offering a complimentary two-year membership of Experian IdentityWorksSM Credit 3B. This product helps detect possible misuse of your personal information and provides you with identity protection services focused on immediate identification and resolution of identity theft."
    I already have credit frozen at all three credit unions (Experian calls it "security freeze"). Experian had said that they send you an alert every time someone tries to access your credit file. I recently opened a B0A account and evidently BoA checks your credit file but I have not received any alert.
    Does anyone have experience with "Experian IdentityWorksSM Credit 3B"? Any negatives in signing up for this service?
    Thanks.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Apologies @bee. Will stop screwing around. Preparing for Rate Cuts
    - Well, the conventional wisdom is to lengthen out maturity bit. If I wanted to put a lot of $$ into bonds I’d aim for around 3 years maturity. Farther out is a gamble if inflation reignites.
    - Two short term ETFs: I use LSST for a short term bond fund. There are lower fee options if that’s critical to you. On my radar is TDTT which adds an inflation-protection component - also about 3 years maturity. Very low fees.
    - For more conservative folks an ultra-short might get you a bit extra as rates fall. TBUX looks excellent in that category.
    - I’d say keep your inflation hedges up. Lower rates may eventually push it higher.
    - There’s an old expression: “Buy the rumor. Sell the news”. The presumption is that stocks will go even higher if the Fed cuts rates. Maybe yes. Maybe no.
    - The financial world may look much different following the November election. Enjoy the fun for now. Hope it lasts a couple more months. But don’t get too giddy.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    We still have a safe deposit box at another bank that we kept for transition to BoA. My desire to consolidate financial institution relationships down to two (or at best three) is not going so great.
    I would be ashamed to work at an institution that has a customer satisfaction rating of 1.6 out 5. May be the new crop of American workers are all Buddhas!
    Any way, part of my reason to post about BoA is to let the forum members know that however bad our brokerage experiences are, judging by banking experience, brokerages appear to be quite good. It seems there are worse companies in America for customer experience. Banking experience impacts wider society than us brokerage customers.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    If anyone here has a self directed BMO brokerage account, please share your experience.
    (My family has a small relationship on the banking side (walking distance to my home) and the BMO branch people are always very customer focused and the manager sits in the open for people to go talk to.)
    BMO is the Bank of Montreal (I checked up on this awhile ago when I was considering BMO Alto for an online savings account):
    The Bank of Montreal was founded in 1817, making it Canada’s oldest incorporated bank. ... Today, the various components of the Bank of Montreal are collectively known as BMO Financial Group.
    https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/bank-of-montreal
    While the bank has a US operation, even with a branch near you, its self-directed brokerage appears limited to Canadian residents:
    Opening a BMO InvestorLine Self-Directed account is easy. Here’s what you’ll need:
    • to be a Canadian resident (you live or have eligible ties to property, family or social services in Canada)
    • a valid Social Insurance Number (SIN)
    • to be at least the age of majority in your province or territory
    Maybe it's that they don't charge transaction fees on mutual funds that caught your attention?
    https://www.bmoinvestorline.com/selfDirected/pdfs/SDFeeSchedule_E.pdf
    That's offset by their charging $9.95 (Cdn) for stock and ETF trades, except for 95 NTF Canadian ETFs.
  • Repost - 5 Star Bond Fund HOBIX loses over 2.70% in four trading days this week
    My post delete and your response crossed. Sorry. Your input though is appreciated, They made a bad bet with the preferred of Riley Financial and were called out on it months ago by noted short seller Marc Cohodes, This week the chickens came home to roost, Hopefully the same management team doesn’t someday make a similar bad bet in their other five star rated bond fund HOSIX.
  • Repost - 5 Star Bond Fund HOBIX loses over 2.70% in four trading days this week
    It is always an eye brow raising event when you see a five star rated short term bond fund lose over 2.70% in four trading days. Morningstar shows a one week loss of 2.58% as daily accumulated dividends are included. Apparently this loss is due to their holding of the preferred shares of Riley Financial. Riley Financial is in a world of hurt as their common shares have lost 75% this month. Noted short seller Marc Cohodes for the past many months on X (Twitter) has been on a rampage against Holbrook Holdings and their management warning of dire consequences for holding Riley Financial. Chalk one up for Marc.
    While I don’t hold HOBIX my concern is with HOSIX. HOSIX is a newer bond fund at Holbrook, also five star rated, and has been the “It” fund since its inception of the bond crowd due to its amazing persistency of trend. It is primarily a CLO fund and CLOs have been the latest rage in Bondland. While HOBIX and HOSIX are not similar they do share the same management team. HOSIX has seen a huge surge in AUM this year. My fear is the management team in their haste to employ new money will make a similar mistake as they did with Riley Financial in HOBIX.
  • Leuthold: going anywhere
    "Is this a buy and forget fund, as I am looking for one? If this is not a buy and forget fund, what purpose does this fund serve in a portfolio?
    I would never buy an OEF (traditional mutual fund) that I didn’t consider a long-term hold (“buy and forget” to use @BaluBalu’s words).
    Luthold as a money manager has a great long term record. I believe they were primarily engaged in research / analysis for various big players (and well respected) before launching their own mutual funds. But nothing is guaranteed. The manager turnover is the main reason M* recently downgraded its rating of LCORX to silver from gold. Interestingly, LCOR retains their gold rating.
    To tread a bit further out onto the thin ice … The fund replaces DODBX in my 10-segment (equal weight) portfolio. I believe DODBX to be a better moderate risk long term hold. They’ve refined their process in recent years to reduce the potential for losses in bear markets and their fees are much more compelling. Not to argue the merits of each. Just perhaps to address BaluBalu’s question of where it might fit in a portfolio.
    Why did I get out of DODBX after a couple decades? I decided about a year ago to consolidate all holdings at Fidelity. While DODBX transferred in OK, it became awkward, to say the least, to rebalance it or increase its weighting without getting hit with a fee. Wasn’t worth the aggravation for me.
    I believe funds to an extent are captive to the economic environment of the day. No manager can prepare for every eventuality. While I loath the P-word infiltrating the investment part of the board, I think in about 84 days the economic / financial / social / political backdrop that now seems normal will transition to a much riskier more difficult environment.
    My last comment in this thread. Got a couple bucks riding on tonight’s Dodgers / Brewers game. :)
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    @Derf, You’ve referenced one of the true greats from both at FA and MFO. For those who don’t know, BobC was a professional financial adviser somewhere in Ohio. As I recall, he transitioned out of active involvement at MFO sometime after retiring.
    Note - The date Derf provides is Dec ‘09. If that’s accurate the comments cited were made about 9 months after the end of the ‘07-‘09 bear market.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    Y'all need to consider that many quote smart prognosticators we're thinking the market was going to get cut in half again from the low in 08, 09'. And Gartner and the ex Goldman sachs guy, I forget his name held an emergency weekend meeting in attempt to negate a complete collapse of our financial system.
    I seem to recall that guy had a three page document that stated he would have complete control of all decisions..what an attempt to circumvate... luckily that didn't happen but oh so close
    Ya in hindsight why say screw around with cost averaging in, should have just pushed all the chips in...
    I do distinctly remember Grantham saying hold your nose and average DOWN with 10% of your money in chunks....he was correct...
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    @Derf. Thanks for pulling up a FA excerpt from February 25, 2009. The bear market ended just 2 weeks after that post. Yet, all sounds calm.
    I really like this line …
    ”Your mix of ETFs should match your investment time table, your age, your level of risk acceptance, your income needs, and any other financial considerations.”
    That was standard mantra for many years in discussing investment choices. It wasn’t about making the most money but rather about matching investments to your own needs and risk tolerance. You don’t hear that much (or as much) anymore.
    Nah, I am logged in & checking things most every day, and that's fine. But I don't fixate on inter-day performance, so at least for my mindset, it's no big deal. By contrast, I'm sure for most retail investors, they shouldn't check every day b/c they may not have the mindset/discipline/knowledge to know that 'doing nothing' often is the best course of action.
    I check fund performance via M* Portfolio Manager almost daily.There is no good reason for me to do this since I seldom trade. Bad habits are sometimes difficult to break!
    Same here. It’s so damn easy to tap an icon on whatever hand-held device I’m already on - and up pops everything. This habit (of looking during the day) has helped occasionally, as when some more speculative hold enjoys a big intraday bump and I can quickly trim some off. But watching is largely a waste of time.
    Were I to look only every 3 months I’d probably pull back the risk profile in advance. Add more cash / short term bonds. Carrying less risk would make it easier not to look, but would also impact performance negatively I think.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    FROM FUNDALARM
    by WhiteSoxWinner on February 25, 2009 at 09:38:09:
    In Reply to: Ping WhiteSox Winner posted by Dave on February 25, 2009 at 07:54:22:
    Hi Dave,
    I think you're making the right move by switching to ETFs.
    You might think about a core and explore approach, where index ETFs are the core of your portfolio and the explore part is reserved for active funds or other strategies.
    It's important to remember there's no accurate way to hedge an active fund or even an index mutual fund. With the ETF, one can buy insurance via put options -- which would offset any losses in your long ETF positions. To me, it's not gambling, anymore than buying insurance on your automobile or home is gambling. Why not protect your portfolio or at least have that flexibility? ETFs give you that choice. Even if you don't use it, it's still there for you.
    I don't own the Fairholme Fund, but I'm a fan of Bruce Berkowitz. He recently sold Berkshire Hathaway, which tells me he's got more guts and backbone than all of America's portfolio managers combined. If you're going to bet on fund managers, stick with the radical kooks that don't hug their benchmarks.
    Maybe Investor or one of the other FundAlarmers can provide some research links, but there's no academic or statistical proof that active mutual funds perform any better during bear markets than straight index funds. Such views are rooted in marketing propaganda and mischievious myth. The active funds that do "protect" their shareholders during a bear market, often end up underperforming during bull markets because of their cash drag and mis-timing. A tiny percentage of active funds may protect their investors during a bear market, but knowing them in advance is impossible.
    Regarding your asset allocation, just ask any one of us for an opinion on your ETF mix. Most FundAlarmers will be delighted to give you their opinion. Your mix of ETFs should match your investment time table, your age, your level of risk acceptance, your income needs, and any other financial considerations.
    I own XLU, which is a Utility Sector ETF. Sector Funds are OK, but for you, it's probably best to use a core and explore method. You would make broad index ETFs like VTI, BND, CWI, TIP, RWR the portfolio's foundation, then you could add explore or satellite positions in sector ETFs around that.
    Most of the major ETF Provider Websites like iShares.com, SPDR.com, and Vanguard.com/etf are good resources and have valuable information/tools on portfolio construction with ETFs. I also like to read ETFGuide.com and they have a portfolio service too.
    Good investing to you, friend.
    WSW
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    Marketwatch 02/15/09
    Gold has been the preferred inflation hedge down through the ages. Investors have long prized the disaster insurance the precious metal provides during market panics and inflation surges when governments debase their currencies in response to crises.
    Gold futures were trading well above $900 an ounce last week as investors were disappointed by the lack of details in the Treasury Department's latest plan to rescue the financial system.
    Investors have been piling into the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). The amount of gold held by the ETF continues to set new records -- it is now backed by about 1,000 metric tons of the precious metal. SPDR Gold Shares has an expense ratio of 0.4%, although investors pay broker commissions to buy and sell ETFs.
    SPDR Gold Shares is one of the largest ETFs, with about $30 billion in assets. Although it is the biggest precious-metals ETF, several other exchange-traded products are tied to gold, silver and platinum, for example. Some provide leverage. Others such as Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) track miner shares. Investors need to be aware that gains on some futures-based commodity ETFs and ETNs can be taxed at a higher rate than those on funds indexed to stocks.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Schwab is at the bottom of the performance rankings YTD, 1 year (the only robo with single digit returns, more than a point behind second worst), and 5 year (tie for worst). Over three years it did 0.2% better than the worst.
    As a blind guess without checking, I suspect the cause is cash drag, especially since Vanguard has outperformed Schab recently by more than 3%, and by more than 1% over three and five years.
    Schwab ranks in the middle of the pack overall. That seems to be due to broad financial planning tools and features like Intelligent Income (mentioned by Barron's) for managing a monthly income stream. Raw performance only counts for so much; with Barron's that's 25% of the total score.
  • Anyone have old pages or recollections of the tenor of posts in 2008? (Fund Alarm)
    As a follow-up to @rforno’s “newbie” thread, it might be interesting to reflect on what the board looked like during 2008 - right in the middle of an eventual 17-month decline in the S&P (greater losses globally and in some domestic sectors). The period is known as ”The Global Financial Crisis” and is also sometimes referred to as ”The Great Recession”. Even money market funds had become unsafe and investors began fleeing until the government exercised extraordinary authority to backstop them.
    It is easy in hindsight after these rare episodes to say: “Do nothing”, “Let it ride …” , “Just don’t look. It won’t really matter 20 years from now.” These are all intelligent responses. But is that how it really was?
    Anybody recall the general tenor at Fund Alarm (predecessor to MFO) back then? And what the smart, well informed, articulate posters were generally saying? Was the general feeling one of “I’m sitting tight.”… “I’m not making any moves.”, “I’m not even looking because longer term everything will be great.”
    Possibly some were reading / participating on other investment forums, or possibly some recall what their friends, family members, co-workers and / or neighbors were saying and doing.
  • Just a friendly reminder for any newbie investors (8/5/2024)
    I didn't have much money allocated to equities in 1987 since I was young and "poor."
    Having read a bit about investing, I thought the 1987 market crash might present a buying opportunity.
    Despite this knowledge, I didn't actually take advantage of the situation.
    During the dot-com bubble (circa 1995 - 2000), I was employed in the tech industry.
    Many coworkers were discussing massive gains in Yahoo, Cisco, and the like.
    It was very difficult to ignore this continuous chatter - FOMO is real!
    Since markets appeared to be in a bubble, I resisted the siren song of the dot-coms.
    I didn't panic during the subsequent crash but should have purchased more equities afterward.
    The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007 - 2008 was very challenging for me.
    There were many bankruptcies, multiple bailouts, bank runs on money market funds
    (Reserve Primary Fund "broke the buck"), and rising unemployment.
    Congress initially rejected the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
    ($700B Troubled Asset Relief Program was a component) which led to a ~9% decline
    in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite that day. The legislation was passed a few days later.
    The seemingly endless onslaught of severe economic events caused significant anxiety.
    To me, it felt like the US economy might suffer a precipitous decline analogous to the Great Depression.
    Once again, I didn't panic but should have increased equity purchases after this major crash.
    I hope to never experience a similar scenario again during my lifetime!
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2024
    Robo-advisors are now $1.09 trillion business. Those are no longer seen as steppingstones to other strategies. In fact both the young & the people approaching retirement like them. The leaders in the AUM now are all latecomers with financial &/or marketing muscle; the original pioneers Betterment & Wealthfront do have respectable presence. So, it isn't all about ERs. But the competition is tough & some big players like JPM, GS have left this business.
    Performance Ranking (overall based on multiple criteria): Fidelity, Merrill, SoFi, Vanguard, Wealthfront, Betterment, Schwab, Empower, Ally, USB, E*Trade/MS, SigFig, Wells Fargo, Acorns
    1-Yr Performance for Allocation 60-40: SoFi, Fidelity, Vanguard, Wealthfront, USB, Empower, Betterment, Merrill, Ally, Schwab
    AUM: Vanguard, Edelman, Morningstar, Fidelity, Schwab, Betterment, Wealthfront, Guided Choice
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-robo-advisors-c2b901fe?mod=hp_columnists
  • Merrill revisited
    I recently opened a CMA account as a replacement for a Vanguard Cash Plus account. That is, an account where we could access a better yielding treasury only MMF and get a decent yield on FDIC-insured money (non-sweep). My SO also opened a new IRA (for promotion $$) and I added to my existing IRA for promotion $$. The experience has been largely disappointing.
    On the plus side:
    - good promotions: fairly high bonuses for fairly low amounts brought in; relatively short 90 period for bonus
    - BofA Preferred Rewards (based on Merrill balance): increases cash back on BofA credit cards
    - Decent rate on FDIC-insured account (though not a sweep account)
    - Access to high yielding (institutional) MMFs with $1 mins
    On the minus side:
    - 24 hr phone service is limited; was told I needed to wait until 8AM for "financial advisor" to be available to deal with some issues
    - preferred award system missed one new account in calculating level of benefits we were qualified for
    - bond research/trading issues
    Trading Treasuries:
    - cannot buy Treasuries at auction except through rep with fee
    - search tool is limited
    --- no depth of book
    --- does not display bonds if min purchase quantity is greater than one (i.e. greater than $1K)
    - cannot buy a bond, even by CUSIP, if min purchase required is more than one bond
    We have these accounts for the plusses above. We don't really use them for trading. E*Trade also offers access to higher yielding third party MMFs.