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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's Best Fund Families, 2024
    "Barron’s has conducted its annual survey of fund families for more than 20 years,
    focusing on one-year performance across a range of actively managed funds for its primary ranking."

    "Because the Best Fund Families results are asset-weighted,
    firms’ largest funds have the biggest impact on their rankings."

    "This year’s top five families showed some significant changes in the top two spots,
    with Lord Abbett jumping from No. 39 to No. 1 and Sit Investment Associates rising from No. 11."

    I believe it's unwise to select the "Best Fund Families" focusing on one-year performance.
    Consider also that the largest fund(s) may have produced excellent returns (luck?)
    while the vast majority of funds in the firm's stable may have greatly underperformed.
    This article is an interesting read but Barron's rankings provide little value.
  • Barron's Best Fund Families, 2024
    Barron's Best Fund Families, 2024
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-fund-families-nvidia-market-810af9e6?refsec=mutual-funds&mod=topics_mutual-funds
    Top Families for 2024: #1-Lord Abbett, #2-Sit, #3-Fidelity, #4-PGIM, #5-Nuveen/TIAA, #7-Capital Group/American Funds, #8-JPM, #10-MS, #12-DFA, #14-T Rowe Price, #20-Invesco, #23-BlackRock, #30-Pimco, #31-BNY Mellon, #36-Franklin Templeton, #37-Vanguard,...to #50.
    Top Families for 5 Years: #1-SIT, #2-Fidelity, #3-DFA, #4-Pimco, #5-Thrivent, #7-Nuveen/TIAA, #9-Capital Group/American Funds, #12-JPM, #21-BNY Mellon, #24-MS, #26-T Rowe Price, #29-BlackRock, #30-Vanguard, #36-Invesco,...to #50.
    In 2024, most active equity funds lagged major indexes. Those without much exposure to Magnificent 7 also lagged. But there are a few strong performers beyond the Magnificent 7. Securitized debt did the best among fixed-income, but bonds did fine too. Most investors had decent returns (and if they lagged major indexes, so what?).
    Eligible fund families required at least 3 active equity OEFs/ETFs (including smart-beta), 1 global equity fund, 1 allocation/hybrid fund, 2 bond funds and 1 national muni fund. Scores in each of these categories were combined using category asset weights to determine the overall rankings. Shown above are the rankings for 2024 and 5 years (all #1 to #5, then only selected families). There are also tables for 10 years and for each category - 5 best and 5 worst.
  • Significant workforce reductions' are coming to the Social Security Administration
    "Does anybody know calculator that can tell you how much you gain or loose by filing a few years early?"
    SSA.tools Social Security Calculator
  • Significant workforce reductions' are coming to the Social Security Administration
    @Old-Joe
    Thanks. My wife and I were talking about this this morning. She was going to wait 2 1/2 more years before filing but maybe we should file now before it becomes almost impossible.
    I believed until recently that they would not attack things that were critical to their MAGA base but I am not longer so sure.
    Does anybody know calculator that can tell you how much you gain or loose by filing a few years early? We know what her two payments would be, and could figure our the return on the early money sorta but it is complex
  • Significant workforce reductions' are coming to the Social Security Administration
    Following are excerpts from a current NPR report:
    The Social Security Administration (SSA) announced Thursday that it "will soon implement agency-wide organizational restructuring that will include significant workforce reductions."
    The planned cuts, which are in line with an executive order from President Trump to broadly slash the federal workforce, are raising concerns about staffing at the agency that disburses retirement savings, as well as disability and survivor benefits, to tens of millions of Americans.
    Advocates say long wait times for services have plagued the agency for years, and its staffing of some 60,000 employees is already at about a 50-year low. Ahead of the looming broader cuts, at least five of eight regional commissioners have recently resigned, according to a senior SSA official who was not authorized to speak to the press.
    Morale at the agency is extremely low, the source said, as staff are crying in meetings and managers are trying to reassure their employees during a time of great uncertainty.
    "The public is going to suffer terribly as a result of this," the source wrote to NPR. "Local field offices will close, hold times will increase, and people will be sicker, hungry, or die when checks don't arrive or a disability hearing is delayed just one month too late."
    Trump has said that Social Security "won't be touched" as he continues to make sweeping cuts to the federal government.
    Until now, the SSA has been largely spared from efforts, mainly overseen by billionaire Elon Musk, to slash the size of the federal government. That includes a federal hiring freeze and more recent dismissals of large numbers of mostly newer workers. But in the last week or so, the agency has faced much of the same chaos and disruption that has been experienced by other federal departments. Changes at the agency are also leading to worries among employees and cybersecurity experts about the protection of sensitive records.
    The agency's prior acting commissioner, Michelle King, was recently replaced after clashing with associates of Musk's Department of Government Efficiency who sought access to sensitive personal data held by the agency. King has been replaced by Leland Dudek, who was being investigated internally before being promoted, according to the SSA official.
    The protection of sensitive data is one of the top concerns for SSA employees: "SSA is incredibly risk averse. And for good reason," the SSA official said. "The data we house is intimate and comprehensive. Every U.S. man, woman and child (living and dead), has a Social Security Number and records of their work, income, tax, disability and civil relationships. And now DOGE has access to all of it."
    The SSA's servers are vast, complex and archaic, processing billions of data points a day, often using programming languages that few people are familiar with, the source continued. Those systems are already under constant attack by digital adversaries from around the world, creating a constant challenge for those tasked with protecting the systems.
    There are no indications that the engineers working with DOGE have gone through required training to protect federal records, the source said, nor specific agency-level training to work in each department's unique systems. Lawmakers have already begun to raise the alarm about cybersecurity concerns of DOGE's access to federal systems, while legal cases about DOGE's access are ongoing.
    Max Richtman, president & CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, told NPR that the process to get disability benefits, in particular, is "so cumbersome and difficult to navigate" and insufficiently staffed that in the last couple of years, "about 10,000 claimants who appealed for their benefits die waiting for their claim to be resolved."
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Nice post & link @WABC
    “Globalization” was, I think, unjustly scapegoated as a cause of lower income workers’ distress in recent years. A lot of these swing voters felt they could help their situation with an administration that imposed heavy tariffs. Those people may have been wearing blinders, as some are beginning to realize that the “cure” for free-trade / globalization is going to be worse for them than the “blight” they railed against.
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    Not that it matters, but this "bug" was not well reported.
    The way many of the reports came out (COBOL, ancient people supposedly getting benefits) made it sound like a Y2K problem. A lot of business programs, often written in COBOL, represented years as two digits (e.g. 1945 would be represented as 45). So the system would get confused with anyone over age 100. For example, is someone born in '01' 24 years old or 124 years old?
    Yogi may have had this in the back of his mind, since he suggested that SS stops paying for people over 100 years old. Actually, the SSA system stops paying benefits at age 115. So it isn't a Y2K issue, or even a COBOL issue per se.
    1875 may have been programmed in as the default year of birth for unknown years, but it is not something designed into the COBOL language. Unlike, say, Jan 1, 1970 00:00:00 is designed into the C language as the "epoch tine".
    The takeaway from this nonsense is that the DOGE "whiz kids" didn't care about what SSA's programs really do, and also that tech reporters seem hardly more enlightened. My mother was a COBOL programmer (one of multiple careers) and would likely have been laughing at all of this.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/26/25
    The consequences of both layoffs (government and freezing funding) could be much bigger than initially thought of on the economy. Consumer spending in 2008 was very bad and it took several years before people want to spend. The worst part is that it is all self-inflicted!
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    @FD1000, I was comparing returns the last few period, and want to ask you of the bond players here why for the last several years you did not simply combine FIGXX or similar at Fido with STIP, instead of putzing around w PONAX and all of the other bond funds you do?
  • Can the market go down?
    Were you investing in 1986, 2000, 2008, 2020 and 2022? Market drops happen much faster than rises. And sometimes they take many years to recover. The S&P actually lost money from 2000-2010.
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    @Anna

    Oh my, all this time I thought/assumed that, originally, it was set up this way so as to avoid taxing state governments. 76 and not to old to learn. ;)
    Still a youngster - we can collect SS until 150 years old, like those collecting now. ;)
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    I suspect all of us on the board, followers of David and MFO, me since 2011 and before that with Fund Alarm, look to build our own FOFs.
    David publishes his periodically.
    In recent years, the proliferation of model portfolios, do essentially provide FOFs.
    Ditto most FAs or RIAs, either those they download from their platforms, likely sponsored, or those they create on their own ... the more independent and thoughtful ones, perhaps.
    Target Retirement Funds are essentially FOFs too.
    At quick search on MFOP shows there are presently 1719 FOFs offered in the US: 1276 are Mixed-Asset, nearly all "actively managed," including 386 Insurance Funds.
    Focusing just on actively managed OEFs and ETFs, Federated Hermes Global Allocation (FSTBX) is the oldest at 65 years. And, not surprisingly, Vanguard Target Retirement funds are the largest, followed by American Funds Target Date Retirement funds.
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    What's the difference between constructing your own "Fund of Funds" and being told by some MFOers that having too many funds is inefficient, wasteful, and self-defeating, as we've all heard here so many times over the years?
    d - My response has always been: Give me 10 funds as good as PRWCX. The combined return should be the same.
    I consolidated down from 15-20 funds to just 6 (+ cash) over the past couple of years. FD was one of the posters that I listened to. I found that with fewer funds you tend to concentrate more on the quality of each fund (management / goals / methodology, holdings, etc.). There’s a lot more money riding on each selection so you are pushed to do more due diligence. All good.
    It does create a bit of a headache should you decide to exit a fund in favor of another, as you are moving a much larger sum of $$. I actually had trouble selling all my shares of a Cambrea etf the other day because it is so thinly traded. Took several sell orders over about 10-15 minutes to fully exit.
    I explained earlier my thinking in creating a fund-of-funds with the proceeds from one of those 6 major positions. I want to learn whether I can take advantage of the volatility of CEFs by actively trading them - mostly within the group of 7. Don’t know. Seems like a reasonable exercise for someone who follows markets closely. I can report back in a year whether the experiment was successful.
    Re “Funds of Funds” & fees. Most do not add an additional layer of fees, but some do. TRRIX from T. Rowe is an example of a fund-of-funds. With an equity target of 40% the fund (Silver at M*) has returned better than 6% annually since inception (2002). The 0.49% ER reflects the aggregate of fees from the underlying funds.
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    What's the difference between constructing your own "Fund of Funds" and being told by some MFOers that having too many funds is inefficient, wasteful, and self-defeating, as we've all heard here so many times over the years?
    How many articles did I read at M* telling me I didn't need a utility sector fund in my IRA? Whoopsie. When utes took off I was already there. I won't claim that I anticipated what happened.
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    What's the difference between constructing your own "Fund of Funds" and being told by some MFOers that having too many funds is inefficient, wasteful, and self-defeating, as we've all heard here so many times over the years?
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    DODBX used to be among the very aggressive allocation funds. But a few years ago, it started a small hedging program to tame its volatility (5% nominal hedge via derivative or shorting). There was some related news then of the uniqueness of doing this in a allocation fund. So, its declines in future may not be as severe as in the past, but some upside may be sacrificed.
  • Ever try constructing your own “fund of funds”?
    DODIX DODGX 50/50 And forget about it.
    Why not just 100% DODBX?
    I wondered the same. I read somewhere a couple decades back that D&C was essentially combining components of DODGX and DODIX to arrive at the correct percentage for DODBX. Might be different today. I moved on a couple years ago. But my longtime experience with D&C was that it typically carried a bit more in equities than your run-of-the-mill “balanced” fund - often close to 70% equities.
    Now, as fine as those funds are, over a 2-year span (2007 & 2008) DODGX managed to loose more than 43% of its value. (DODIX gained 3 or 4%.) You younger ones like @Charles can afford to sit back and ride out a 2-year storm of that magnitude But for some of us “old geezers” just trying to pocket a couple percent better than what cash generates, two years might seem an eternity.
    How did DODBX fare over that 2-year span? Somewhat better, losing only 34.8% of its value.
    (Numbers from Yahoo Finance / Performance)
  • A good year to date for many bond funds.
    Some random thoughts on bond funds which in many cases are beating stocks YTD. The big winner so far has been emerging market debt. Some funds there are already coming off two consecutive years of double digit gains. Yet we seldom read much on that category. That is a good thing. Many of the better bond traders are heavy there. The greatest bond bull run I ever witnessed was the emerging market bull run from late 98 through the early 2000s.
    While everyone is enamored with the CrossingBridge bond funds - RSIVX, CBLDX, and NRCDX - and rightfully so, how about some love for CBRDX. Its November performance caught my eye and it has continued to outperform. My fear is they fold this small and concentrated fund into one of their larger ones.
    As much as I abhor junk bonds they have been more than resilient. Like MNHYX there and learned long ago not to let my opinions impact my positioning.
    The MBS funds continue to sparkle especially my favorite SEMMX/PX as well as BDKNX/AX. Interesting though that some of the bond funds tied to the lowest of low in MBS, the legacy non agencies from yesteryear such as EIXIX, IOFIX and a few others aren’t shining at all.
    The CLO funds are hanging in there but underperforming. Would not expect a repeat of the past two years performance in funds such as HOSIX or SCFZX nor the CLO ETFs. It was a good run for the bank loan funds but they too are underperforming. The cat bonds while also hanging in there, at least for CBYYX and EMPIX, doubtful they will see anything close to their double digit returns of 2023 and 2024,
    The Treasury secretary has on numerous occasions mentioned his desire to focus on the 10 year Treasury bond. Almost so much you would think he would welcome a brief recession to get it even lower. But you would think junk bonds would have to break before that. The administration also seems intent on lowering oil. So a lot going well for bonds YTD. The action in treasuries and emerging markets explains much of the renaissance in PIMIX YTD, Will the recent run in bonds continue or will inflation be the big bugadoo. Your guess is as good as mine. Just go with the flow.
  • The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. Everyone else hasn’t.
    Many Americans are pinching pennies, exhausted by high prices and stubborn inflation. The well-off are spending with abandon. The top 10% of earners—households making about $250,000 a year or more—are splurging on everything from vacations to designer handbags, buoyed by big gains in stocks, real estate and other assets.
    Those consumers now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. Three decades ago, they accounted for about 36%. All this means that economic growth is unusually reliant on rich Americans continuing to shell out. Moody’s Analytics has estimated that spending by the top 10% alone accounted for almost one-third of gross domestic product.
    Between September 2023 and September 2024, the high earners increased their spending by 12%. Spending by working-class and middle-class households, meanwhile, dropped over the same period.
    Taken together, well-off people have increased their spending far beyond inflation, while everyone else hasn’t. The bottom 80% of earners spent 25% more than they did four years earlier, barely outpacing price increases of 21% over that period. The top 10% spent 58% more.
    The buying power of the richest Americans, who tend to be older and more educated, stems in part from the swelling values of homes and the stock market over the past several years. Rising asset prices are widening the gap between those who own property and stocks, and those who don’t.
    During the pandemic, Americans across the spectrum saved at record levels. Then inflation struck, and prices rose sharply. Most Americans turned to their extra savings to keep up with their rising bills. But the top 10% of earners kept most of what they had saved up.
    And with respect to that 90% who most likely are not MFO readers-
    Following are excerpts, severely edited for brevity, from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    President Trump cautioned lawmakers earlier this month about making cuts to Medicaid. But just after Trump left the room, one budget hawk remarked: “We could get $2.5 trillion if we cut Medicaid.”
    House Republicans are deeply divided on Medicaid, split between spending hard-liners who want big savings and pragmatists who warn against angering voters. Steve Bannon recently warned about the dangers of cutting Medicaid. “A lot of MAGAs on Medicaid,” he said. “Just can’t take a meat ax to it, although I would love to.”
    House Freedom Caucus members and other budget hawks successfully pressed for an amendment that directly ties $2 trillion in spending reductions over 10 years to the party’s tax-cut effort. Under that provision, the more the GOP pulls from Medicaid and other programs, the more financial room Republicans have.
    States help fund and manage the program, which provides health insurance for roughly 72 million people, or about one in five Americans, including children and people with low incomes or disabilities. The federal government spends about $600 billion annually on Medicaid.
    Republicans aren’t allowed to touch Social Security in the fast-track legislative process they are using, and Trump has said he opposes reducing Medicare benefits, leaving Medicaid as one of the remaining ways to significantly shrink spending. Within a 24-hour period, Trump stated that Medicaid shouldn’t be touched but also posted on X that he backs the House-led package that is likely to rely on cuts to Medicaid to meet its targets.
    White House spokesman Kush Desai said that the Trump administration is “committed to protecting Medicaid while slashing the waste, fraud, and abuse within the program—reforms that will increase efficiency and improve care for beneficiaries.”
    Some House Republicans say keeping Medicaid intact is essential if they want to hold the House majority in 2026. Some are privately warning party leadership that there are scores of members—including some in safe GOP districts—who oppose deep cuts. Rep. David Valadao (R., Calif.) argues that the Trump coalition now includes many Medicaid recipients.
    The program is popular. A recent poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation found nearly 80% of respondents—and 65% of Republicans—think the federal government spends about the right amount or not enough on Medicaid. But budget hawks believe now is their best chance to address deepening federal deficits, which have ballooned the U.S. debt to $34 trillion.
    Comment: So here we have yet another disconnect: the majority of voters are not in that lucky top 10%, and many within the Trump party that they voted for would cut their Medicaid so as to transfer even more wealth from the 90% to that top 10%.
    Note: Text emphasis was added to the above WSJ reports.
  • Vanguard lowers fees across mutual funds and etfs
    I'm currently reading the second edition of The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein published in 2023.
    I read the first edition of the book many years ago.
    In a brief section where "The Vanguard Effect" is mentioned, Mr. Bernstein writes:
    "As an admirer of the late John Bogle, it pains me to admit that customer support at Vanguard has deteriorated, with not infrequent clerical errors and extended phone hold times,
    in contrast to the generally fast, knowledgeable, and accurate support at other firms."