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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    When I have responded to the OP in this thread I have tried to keep in mind that he just might know his own druthers better than I do.
    If I was looking to creep out on the duration limb I might look at similar constraints.
    But, you know . . .
    So I tacked CBLDX onto my query.
    I did not put a duration floor on my query, and it should go without saying that the funds mentioned below will have much less of it.
    I'm not making any adjustments in the ranking for multiple share classes.
    At five years CBLDX would have given you the better Sharp, but BATPX would have returned 8.2 vs 6.1
    At four years CBLDX wins on Sharp, but is outperformed by BATPX, LCTIX, and ENIAX.
    At three years CBLDX still leads on Sharp. There are now seven funds ahead in performance one of which is ENIAX only .12 behind in the Sharp race.
    At 2.5 years CBLDX falls to 16th place on Sharp. It ties for 6th place on returns.
    At two years CBLDX drops down to 20th place on Sharp. It ties for 9th place on returns.
    At 1.5 years CBLDX is way down there on Sharp. It's down to 10th place on returns.
    At one year CBLDX falls to 29th place on Sharp. It's now back up to 6th place on returns.
    MFO Premium works on month to month numbers. If you have a way to track daily performance then your results may differ.
    I did the ranks by human-powered eyeball, so let me know if you see an error when you run the query as I have.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    So I queried MFO P with my morning coffee, because I like queries. Here is what I came up with:
    Basic Info
    • Asset Universe: Mutual Funds
    • SubType: Bond
    • Age, years: 10+
    Index? No Index Funds
    More Basic Info
    • Share Class: All Classes (Note: This option takes longer to load, initially.)
    • Fund of Funds? No Fund of Funds
    More Risk Metrics
    • DSDEV Rating: 1 - 2 Below Average
    • Down Rating (In Type): 1 - 2 Bottom Quintile
    Purchase Info
    • Expense Ratio (ER), %/yr: 1.00 or Less
    Bond Info
    • Quality: BBB or Better
    • Junk Plus Non-Rated: 20% or Less
    • Duration: 6 Years or Less
    • Effective Duration: 6 Years or Less
    I set the time period from 202112. There were few results over three years of effective duration, which is not too surprising given the environment we have been in. Here they are by duration length, then lowest ER of the fund without regard to purchase conditions: FIJEX, PGBIX, SNGVX, VCFIX. HWDVX, FPNIX.
    When I looked at the results for the last twelve months there were no funds with a duration over 2.3. It has been a bumpy flight.
    So then I dialed out to ten years and ended up with PGBIX, SNGVX, HWDVX, and FPNIX.
    I might try dialing up the risk factor a little later today, but I think this post has gone on long enough.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    I will transfer the pre-tax portion of my 401(k) to a Rollover IRA and need to replace the bond fund — DOXIX.
    DOXIX is a good fund which resides in the M* Intermediate Core-Plus category.
    I've expanded the search beyond Intermediate Core and Intermediate Core-Plus bond funds
    that many investors utilize for their primary fixed income positions.
    Desirable characteristics are listed below.
    at least 5 years of operating history but preferably more than 10 years¹
    short-to-intermediate term duration
    typically holds < 20% high-yield bonds
    typically holds < 20% EM bonds
    low/moderate volatility and max drawdowns
    expense ratio preferably < 1.00%
    Here are several funds which are/were being considered (~dozen others were reviewed).
    PFIIX
    PGBIX
    WCPBX
    GBOAX (too much high-yield, lots of EM also)
    DODLX (good trailing returns, low expenses, too volatile)
    I've read the posts in the Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs thread.
    I'm open to your suggestions — thanks in advance!
    ¹ Unless portfolio managers ran other funds with a similar strategy for > 5 years.
  • Private Equity  (doom)
    Private equity bought the hospital I admitted patients to.
    It had been poorly run for years because the CEO packed the board with his cronies and let it go down the tubes. There was a failed merger with the local Catholic Hospital, who refuse to let women with tubal ligation after Cesarean section ( 8 to 10 patients a year) park in the garage or use the same laundry as "the faithful" per the Bishop.
    PE firm borrowed $1.6 Billion dollars to pay the owners ( Leonard Green Hedge fund) a huge "special dividend"
    To pay off loan, PE firm sold the land and buildings of all their hospitals nationwide to Medical Properties Trust, a REIT. Now all the hospitals had huge rent payments, which were new, as most of them had owned the buildings etc for decades. ( Our hospital opened in the early 1900s.)
    This plus the decrease in elective surgeries during covid bankrupted most of them and bankrupted the PE Firm, Prospect Medical. The three hospitals in CT owe $200 million in rent, taxes and utilities and payments to doctors.
    Yale offered to buy my old hospital, before the Covid bust but now says it is not worth what they offered. The REIT won't budge. Now two of the smaller of the three may get sold to Hartford Health Care and the State of CT is interested in the larger one ( my old hospital) but says they will not assume any debt.
    Looks like a standstill, all because of the greed of PE.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.

    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (
    link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)

    The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
    You are concentrating on the wrong things:
    * DT doesn't care about ONLY performance. He cares a lot more about performance and volatility for his own goals. BGHIX would never be an option.
    * My style and goals are a bit different. I don't mind taking more risk/SD but only to a certain point. Investing in BGHIX long term for me would be rare. I'm looking for funds that have done well lately + very low SD. I'm also a slow trader. I don't care what BGHIX did 3-4-8 years ago. The fact remains that HOSIX did great during 2023-4.
    * If I was looking to hold several years from today, I would hold EGRIX, not BGHIX. Of course the future is unknown, which is why I have never committed to holding since 2000 while I see better funds.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added bit more risk today. Should raise the equity position from 26% closer to 30%. Buys included a few shares of CZR priced around $26.50.
    Edit. I fumbled the hand-off and sold CZR the next day. Too hot to handle. I’m sure it will join the growing club of stocks I bailed from early only to watch them grow 5X in the following few years. Replaced CZR’s 2% position with UTF which is selling at an unusually attractive discount.
    BTW - That’s a great photo above.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.

    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (
    link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)

    The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    WABAC:"I suppose it comes down to which is more important to you, the 4% rate or just staying ahead of CD's and money markets. There are certainly inexpensive short and ultra-short funds that stick to old-fashioned, garden-variety government and corporate bonds/bill/notes that have track records back to the GFC, or even the dot com bust."
    What is "important" to me is the least risky way to make at least 4% total return. For the last 3 years, the least risky way was in CDs and MMs. I don't see that continuing. I see Ultra Short term bond funds as very unlikely to do that going forward, as interest rates fall. Some Short Term bond funds are possibilities, especially those focusing on corporate bonds, or on junkier grade bonds. Another option is more flexible multisector or nontraditional bond oefs, that can shift investing strategies and options as needed to handle falling interest rates. I am not sure where I will land, but I am not a trader, so I will look for funds with lower volatility, and are easier to buy and hold for longer periods of time. If I had to make a decision today, I would look strongly at funds like HOSIX and CBLDX, but my CDs start maturing in December and so I have a little time to make that decision.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.
    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)
  • High Earners Age 50 and Older Are About to Lose 'Catch-Up' privileges in 401Ks
    the IRS is looking to restrict retirement savings
    The IRS had little to do with this other than restate what Congress required. Give credit where credit is due.
    SECURE 2.0 introduced two notable changes to this system:
    mandatory Roth treatment for catch-up contributions by high earners for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2023
    optional "super catch-up" contributions for participants ages 60 to 63 for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2024
    https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/irs-proposes-key-changes-to-roth-catch-up-contributions
    As a practical matter, the executive branch does have limited discretion in carrying out what Congress says, especially in making sure that the law can actually be executed:
    Due to concerns that plan sponsors and recordkeepers would be unable to comply with the mandatory Roth catch-up requirement by the original deadline, Notice 2023-62 provided a transition period that delayed the effective date until Jan. 1, 2026 (although, a later effective date may apply for collectively bargained plans).
    Even Congress isn't restricting retirement savings; see e.g. rforno's post above. What Congress has always done is to restrain the government's largesse by limiting contributions. That's far and away the larger restriction. And with its new "super catch up" provision, Congress is enabling earners to shelter of another $11K of assets that would otherwise sit in taxable accounts.
    Still, not to worry if you're a really high earner (read business partner). Congress continues to give them favorable tax treatment on profit sharing (carried interest) and even on catch up contributions:
    No FICA Wages, No Roth Mandate. Participants without FICA wages (e.g., partners who have only self-employment income) are not subject to the Roth requirement.
  • giroux m* update
    Every now and then I get the urge to downsize my PRWCX position for one reason or other but have yet to pull the trigger. However I may finally start that in Dec as I keep repositioning that portfolio to have more international and income tiltings.
    A little voice in my head (which can be wrong) keeps thinking that Giroux will retire from the fund sometime soon. I mean he's been on it for nearly 20 years now....
  • giroux m* update
    From the previously linked report::
    The loan market has grown substantially over the past 20 years to $1.6 trillion in size, now exceeding the high yield bond market in total par outstanding. Concurrent with the growth of the market has been a gradual shift lower in credit quality, when measured using rating agencies as a proxy. Since 2005, the median issuer net leverage in the loan market has increased more than in the high yield bond market. As a result, while the high yield market has “high-graded” in recent years, the average quality in the loan market has shifted from previously a BB oriented market to a segment that is more single-B focused.
    A little while back I posted a commentary from OSTIX noting the same phenomena. At the time they weren't feeling the need to get into bank loans.
    Since bank loans are still around 27% of the income sleeve at PRWCX, I hope they are as judicious as the folks at Artisan Partners claim to be.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Lots of trader comments which just brings stress to my thinking. I just bought 2 CDs at 4 and 4.2% at my local bank, while they are available. Money Market rates are falling pretty quickly now and don't expect any of them to make 4% much longer. Lots of comments about SD and Sharpe on bond oefs, but the last 3 years can produce misleading expectations going forward.
    I suppose it comes down to which is more important to you, the 4% rate or just staying ahead of CD's and money markets. There are certainly inexpensive short and ultra-short funds that stick to old-fashioned, garden-variety government and corporate bonds/bill/notes that have track records back to the GFC, or even the dot com bust.
  • Another from Lyn Alden. Approx. 1 hour and 40 minutes
    Conclusion of June, '25 newsletter:
    "...As total credit in the US and global system continues to grow over the next five or ten years, scarce assets at reasonable valuations are likely to continue to be worthwhile things to own. This can include high-quality equities, real estate in non-bubbly markets, precious metals, and bitcoin."
  • Private Equity  (doom)
    I sold my business to a so called sophisticated private equity firm. It only took 5 years for them to destroy it and erase my 45 years of sweat. Get me excited about private equity - pass.
  • Private Equity  (doom)
    Following are excerpts from today's commentary by Matt Levine. It strikes me as a pretty good summary of the current Private Equity situation.
    A simple gloomy model you could have of private equity is:
    1. Once upon a time, companies were mispriced. Lots of companies were available cheaply. Their price didn’t reflect the present value of their cash flows, or at least, it didn’t reflect the present value of the cash flows they could reasonably achieve if you added some leverage and improved their management.
    2. A few ambitious risk-seeking entrepreneurs noticed this systematic mispricing and set out to fix it. They raised money from friends and family and patient investors who were willing to take risk, they bought companies at low prices, levered them up, fixed their operations and resold them after a few years at higher prices.
    3. It helped, in doing this business, that interest rates were declining for decades and valuation multiples were rising. If you bought a company, did nothing to it, waited five years and sold it, you’d have a profit just from valuation tailwinds.
    4. The people who started this business — private equity — made great returns for their investors and became billionaires themselves.
    5. This attracted many, many more people to the business. Who wouldn’t want to become a billionaire by buying and selling companies? Who wouldn’t want to invest with them?
    6. So now private equity is the default career path for smart ambitious people entering the financial industry, and private equity firms are now giant alternative asset managers with hundreds of billions of dollars under management.
    7. Why would companies be mispriced?
    Like: There was an arbitrage, and correcting it made people rich, and now it is corrected, so correcting it can no longer make you rich. If you want to buy a good company, lever it up, improve its operations and sell it back to the public markets:
    • Other private equity firms have already bought most of the good companies;
    • The companies that are left have all levered themselves up and hired consultants to improve their operations, like a private equity firm would have done, so there’s no reward to you for doing that;
    • Interest rates have gone up, so borrowing money is more expensive now than it was a few years ago; and
    • Other private equity firms own tons of companies that they want to sell, so you have to compete with them when you try to sell your company back to the public markets, and you won’t get a premium price.
    In the golden age of private equity, private equity ownership was an exception, a way to move companies from a low-value state to a high-value state. In 2025, private equity ownership is almost the norm: Huge chunks of modern business are owned by private equity funds rather than public shareholders. It would be a little weird if those private equity funds could all sustainably get much higher returns than public shareholders.
    Anyway Bloomberg’s Allison McNeely, Preeti Singh and Laura Benitez report on gloomy times for private equity:
    After a half-century of meteoric growth, buyout firms are facing challenges at every step of their life cycle: Attractive takeover targets are scarcer, financing costs are up and it’s harder to cash out old investments and deliver the robust returns once promised to pension managers, endowments, foundations and wealthy individuals. Even dealmakers are frustrated — waiting to collect their share of profits known as carried interest that comes when investments are successfully wrapped up. …
    “Private equity has lost its way and has to go back to what this industry — that employs the brightest and best minds — does best,” Orlando Bravo, managing partner of private equity firm Thoma Bravo, said in an interview. That’s “buying and selling companies and generating great returns for its investors.” …
    “Many PE firms are dead already, they just don’t know it,” said Charles Wilson, senior vice president of investment management at industry recruiter Selby Jennings. “Survival will likely hinge on how forgiving managers find their LPs to be when they hit the fundraising trail again in coming years.”
    The troubles follow a long, high-flying era. For more than a decade, rock-bottom interest rates and cheap financing helped firms scoop up businesses, re-engineer their finances and then unload them at lofty valuations. But when the Federal Reserve started hiking borrowing costs in 2022, the industry got stuck — unable to exit holdings at the prices and returns they had been touting in marketing pitches and updates to clients. …
    Privately, many institutional investors concede that their expectations from private equity investments are muted for the next decade compared with the previous 10 years.
    Perfect time to, uh, sell private equity to retail?
  • Johnathan Clements
    Nothing much changed for the average Joe investor.
    The classic investment guide A Random Walk Down Wall Street was first published in 1973. It was written by Princeton University economist Burton Malkiel.
    Burton Malkiel served on the Board of Directors and as a trustee for The Vanguard Group for 28 years, ending his service in 2005. His time at Vanguard was highly influential, as he was a close friend of founder Jack Bogle and a strong supporter of the company's pioneering work in index funds.
    No other book taught me more about investing, and I read many for decades after that.
    You can learn a lot by reading articles by Charles Lynn Bolin. I have used similar techniques that I developed myself.
  • giroux m* update

    usual accolades, but prompted me to scan his holdings.
    unsure which\how many bank loans are still in from his great reward:risk call a few years back.
    artisan had a good update on this niche:
    https://www.artisancanvas.com/en.entry.html/2025/09/02/not_your_parentsloanmarketstructuralshiftsc-tqGI.html
    also noticed holding called 'filtration'.
    could this be a holding in private european 'filtration group'? looks like an appealing subsector, and also unusual as a non-american holding.
  • Delaying SS Benefits Isn’t Always The Best Decision
    @msf Excellent. Great information and clarification. Thanks again!
    I know that a Roth conversion is a taxable event, of course. But, does it also count as unearned income, as it pertains to LTCG tax treatment. Or is it more of a "unique" event?
    I've thought about delaying anywhere from 6 months to 24 months. And using that time to cash out some LTCG positions, perform Roth conversions and/or spend down some (taxable?) accounts.
    I am playing with some tax calculators, trying to see what works best. Our spending needs will drop off significantly in 2026. We have been spending on home improvements, automobile upgrades, education, medical/dental, all in preparation for retirement over the past 6-7 years. All of that will be behind us at the end of this year.
    We are about 62% tax-deferred, 5% Roth and 33% taxable. Our taxable accounts hold a great deal of LTCG and cash.
    A few articles/calculators that I have squirreled away on retirement taxation:
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/t037-c032-s014-tax-efficient-retirement-withdrawal-strategies.html
    https://www.irscalculators.com/tax-calculator
    https://www.schwab.com/ira/ira-calculators/roth-ira-conversion
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Lots of trader comments which just brings stress to my thinking. I just bought 2 CDs at 4 and 4.2% at my local bank, while they are available. Money Market rates are falling pretty quickly now and don't expect any of them to make 4% much longer. Lots of comments about SD and Sharpe on bond oefs, but the last 3 years can produce misleading expectations going forward.