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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    "There is relatively little airflow forward and backward between rows, making it less likely to spread respiratory particles between rows."
    Did you read any of the responses to that article? For instance, this one:
    "As a ventilation engineer with 40+ years experience in exposure control (including biohazard labs) I find the assertion that general ventilation on an aircraft - as opposed to local exhaust - will effectively control close quarter exposure to "droplets" (or, more technically correct, an aerosol from coughing, sneezing or talking) is questionable."
    On our last trip to Europe the guy behind me was coughing and hacking for 5000 miles. There was "relatively" enough airflow to do me in. Took me one day to come down with his virus and three weeks to recover. Don't even talk to me about the wonderful ventilation systems on planes.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    Good post @bee.
    Not mentioned in the excerpt is how unfair the pandemic has been to lower income Americans who weren’t able to work from home and many of whom don’t participate in the stock market. Yet, they have endured the disease and suffering to a greater extent than the better-off along with being hit with the rising prices for food and essentials.
    What they say about pent-up demand is true. Took just 6 days after the 2nd Pfizer injection to book a flight to a warmer climate. Hear similar stories from others - some booking trips on faith before even being vaccinated. Airfares are likely to go to the sky. I have several big home maintenance jobs due - some deferred earlier out of concerns about having workers inside during worst of the pandemic. Very concerned about a looming labor shortage and higher labor / materials costs.
    Your excerpt implies we might be in for a 10-year romp akin to the 20s. Of course, there are some differences. My Accord Hybrid gets much better mileage than did Gatsby’s Rolls Royce. Also, in his day gas was something like 20 cents a gallon. 10 more years of rising stock prices? A bit too much to expect - unless a “bubble inside of bubble” develops. Could happen.
    image
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    US Global Investor - Investor Weekly:
    A little over a hundred years ago, the United States emerged from the double whammy of a world war and deadly pandemic. Eager to get back to “normal” life, Americans went on a decade-long spending splurge, buying cars and radios and stocks.
    Although we all know how it ended, the Roaring Twenties was largely a product of pent-up demand.
    This summer, I believe we could see the start of a similar demand-driven economic boom as millions of Americans, newly vaccinated and $1,400 richer, make up for lost time by booking flights and vacations, going on cruises, visiting family out of state and more.
    As I shared with you earlier this month, close to $18 trillion sit in Americans’ savings accounts right now—a record amount. Much of this cash is just waiting to be unleased into the U.S. economy.
    https://usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Excellent articles thank you for posting!
    Do wonder the models account for crazy investing manias which we def have now, potential huge war on our turf, we mess with the wrong folks we'd most def see missle rain on our turf or em pulse knocking out our infrastructure and regardless will we experience extreme socialism where we are headed, that won't be good for stonks
    I would think all bets are off and then the question will be can we cross borders with our wealth
    Also how much more impact will bitcoin have? Will it turn into the place to be or another investing farce?
    With advances in genetics do you need to push the curve out to 55, 60 years??
    Good health and good luck to all
    Baseball Fan
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Thanks @ davidmorn
    I am also intrigued by Pfau's & Kitces studies that suggest:
    In a world where the conventional wisdom is that retirees should reduce their equity exposure throughout retirement as their time horizon shortens, this research suggests that in reality, the ideal may actually be the exact opposite.
    and,
    if the portfolio is depleted too severely by withdrawals and bad returns in the early years, there won’t be enough (or any) money left for when the good returns finally arrive. And notably, the truly dire situations are not merely severe market crashes that occur shortly after retirement, but instead the extended periods of “merely mediocre” returns that last for more than a decade, which are far too long to “wait out” just using some cash and intermediate bond buckets. Conversely, when the equity glidepath is rising and the retiree adds to equities throughout retirement (and/or especially in the first half of retirement), then by the time the market reaches a bottom and the next big bull market finally begins, equity exposure is greater and the retiree can participate even more!
    I have often thought...
    Own retirement date funds (that have a glide path) towards initial retirement (your retirement date) and then re-cast these "retirement date " funds out over your retirement horizon in increments that maximize a SWR, Portfolio Duration (You do not want to have a chance of failing after only 10 years if you are planning for 50 years), and Terminal Value.
    Here's a link to Kitces discussion on the topic:
    https://kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/
  • FPACX VERSUS SOR
    SOR looks like a reasonable alternative for FPACX if you're interested in a different fund from the same management team. As such it's somewhat similar, and has a fair coefficient of correlation (0.72, meaning an R² of 0.52), per Portfolio Visualizer.
    FPACX vs. SOR chart over lifetime of FPACX
    One (SOR) holds 43 stocks, the other 56 (both as of Dec 31, per M*). One (SOR) is 35% in US stocks, the other 50%. One (SOR) is short 5% in cash (still net 12% positive), the other isn't shorting but is long 21% in cash. Same management, same investment space, yes. Clones or near copies, no.
    The 8% discount is the lowest discount in 3 years, looking at the 3 year graph at CEFConnect (click on "pricing", then select the graph's 3 year tab). Its one year Z score is 1.96, its six month score is 3.54. I'm not a closed end fund investor, so I can't suggest what time frame is best to look at, but this doesn't strike me as a good time to buy if what you're looking at is the size of the discount.
    M* (via Fidelity) writes: "In our opinion, a z-score of less than -2 signals that a fund is relatively inexpensive, and a z-score greater than +2 signals that a fund is relatively expensive."
    On the topic of discounts, just as a discount boosts the effective yield of a bond fund, it also boosts the effective expense ratio of a fund. That 0.97% ER is 0.97% of NAV. Since you'd be purchasing at an 8% discount, the effective ER for you would be 0.97%/0.92 = 1.05%. That's the same ER as FPACX according to M* if you exclude borrowing costs. (Some people think this is more meaningful, many do not.)
    If you like SOR, that's fine, go for it. But don't do it as an attempt to buy an FPACX clone and save a few bucks in the process.
  • Small Cap Value
    As of 12/31/2020, the largest holding of BRSVX was GameStop. Not a stock I would expect John Montgomery to buy, but what do I know? M* claims the stock has gained 6,500% over the previous year. My experience with Bridgeway funds was that some years are blowouts and others the obverse.
  • Small Cap Value
    I picked US News as only an example that supported some of the SCV funds identified above. I could have picked another example such as:
    https://mutualfunds.com/equity-categories/us-small-cap-value-equity-funds-and-etfs/
    or something else for that matter, but I did not.
    It was not intended that US News should be used as the final say on one's investment decision. I hope each and every reader/op does their own homework before they invest.
    PVFIX, based on the M* information as of 2/28/21, was 7.31% YTD and in the 100% rank category. However, the trailing total return, as of 3/11/21 was 13.27% not 7.31%. The fund started to slowly increase as of March 5. Incidentally, Pinnacle's website states that is performance YTD is 12.60% - http://www.pinnaclevaluefund.com/performance.aspx
    Are there better SCV funds? Sure, but the OP asked for other possibilities for consideration.
    Also, with the exception of several standout small cap growth funds, there seems to be a resurgence in the SCV arena that has been out of favor for past several years (which is why I mentioned short/long term objective). BRSIX, BRUSX and others have seen some significant percentage of increases in 2021, but it is still early. For example, as of 3/11/21, the YTD total trailing return for BRUSX was 37.31%; BRSIX was 41.73% and BRSVX was 48.02% (I picked on Bridgeway as an example). Even WSCVX's total trailing return was 29.46% YTD as of 3/11/21. I am sure there are other SCV funds that have performed as comparably as well.
    I have been investing in BRUSX and PRSVX for the last several years when SCV was out of favor; I am finally seeing the fruits of my long term investing perseverance.
  • Small Cap Value
    You were done with this discussion when you suggested that all one needed to know about a source (here, US News) is that they listed as their top fund one that had only one top decile performance in the past eleven years. Seriously.
    I accepted this. I merely observed that it seems to apply equally to you.
    Back fill all you want about how wonderful your fund is. None of that changes anything. It doesn't address the innuendo you directed at US News.
    As you know, funds earn those stars on past, actual performance
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. On what basis does US News calculate fund scores? Never mind - an issue already raised and ducked by changing the subject.
    Finally, lest anyone think I am defending US News' methodology, I reiterate: "I agree ... that the US News rankings are not worth more than a quick glance."
  • Small Cap Value
    You were done with this discussion when you suggested that all one needed to know about a source (here, US News) is that they listed as their top fund one that had only one top decile performance in the past eleven years. Seriously.
    I accepted this. I merely observed that it seems to apply equally to you.
    Back fill all you want about how wonderful your fund is. None of that changes anything. It doesn't address the innuendo you directed at US News.
    As you know, funds earn those stars on past, actual performance
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. On what basis does US News calculate fund scores? Never mind - an issue already raised and ducked by changing the subject.
    Finally, lest anyone think I am defending US News' methodology, I reiterate: "I agree ... that the US News rankings are not worth more than a quick glance."
  • Small Cap Value
    RE: US News Rankings...
    You really don't need to go any further than looking at their #1 ranked SCV fund, DFFVX.
    ...
    Seriously, ONCE in the Top Ten percentile in 11 years, and it's magically the #1 ranked SCV fund?
    ...
    Kind of reminds me of some of the old stock "Supervised Lists" from back in the 80's, some of which required the company to fund the inclusion of their stock on the list, if you get my drift
    US News runs third party numbers through its algorithm to produce its rankings. In this sense it's similar to M*'s star ratings, except M* doesn't exclusively use third party data, so M* has a small but non-zero ability to jigger its figures.
    No magic involved, just formulas. Speaking of M*, it gives DFFVX a sliver rating. That's prospective. Could you explain to us what US News' rankings are supposed to represent? If one is going to appreciate your critique, it would help to know what it is you're critiquing.
    " for my money in the SCV cat...FCPVX and/or RYOFX"
    Seriously, ONCE in the Top Ten percentile in 11 years, and for your money FCPVX is one of your top two SCV funds?
    I agree with you that the US News rankings are not worth more than a quick glance. But that's because it's easy to take half a dozen pot shots at how they're computed, not because I necessarily disagree with the results.
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @BenWP,
    I also invested in ARTYX several years ago since i have previously invested with Mr. Kaufman when he managed Thornburg Developing World. The tech-heavy portion of the fund was impacted by the rising bond yield. Tech tend to do well in low interest rate environment but bonds become competitive in higher interest rate environment. Thus, I pair ARTYX with TRP Emerging Discovery fund that have more weighing in the value camp. There are other options too at Matthews as you indicated. Growth & Income and Dividend are good options. Bond settled a bit this week but I like to spread out the risk on EM. I am now watching the treasury yield more closely now. Friday’s yield has moved up and NASDAQ drops.
    The big unknown is how high and how fast the yield increase will be this year as the Fed tackles inflation.
    @catch22, thank you for the clarification. I am too learning more about bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Interesting note is that Fidelity does not have access to Bitcoin.
  • Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
    @BenWP, interesting observation on EM. For now I stay put and watch the treasury yield as it is settling down this week. Read earlier that 10 years treasury will reach much higher than 1.5% by year end if inflation is rising. Nevertheless I am just watching ARK etfs. Have you considering the more value oriented EM funds instead of the growth type? They have been very volatile lately.
    @catch22, no bitcoins here as I don't understand the risk and reward aspect enough.
  • The Teal Book
    Stacey Tevlin is the most important person in U.S. economics that you have probably never heard of. She leads a team of 357 people in the Federal Reserve’s Research and Statistics division, which is entrusted with the forecasts for policy makers as they weigh interest rates every six weeks.
    Her work appears in a document called the Teal Book, which is kept confidential for five years. She doesn’t go on television, give speeches, or even talk to reporters very often. Yet her team’s work has so much influence on the policy debate that one former Fed governor calls the staff forecast “the 13th member” of the Federal Open Market Committee.
    keeper-of-secret-teal-book-lifts-veil-on-new-forecast-era
  • Small Cap Value
    I do, it just depends on what your long/short term objective is. I owned PVFIX prior to 2010 and it never did stellar, probably mediocre at best. This year has probably been its best year in years. The manager used to work at Royce Funds.
    Plus, 2021 is still young.
  • Blast from the past "Old_Skeet" Low rate environment
    This leaves 15% of my cash in low to no yield places such as money market mutal funds and cash savings. My highest paying money market mutual fund PCOXX has paid out a measley yield of 0.53%. Carry this out and for the full years it projects to a yield of less than one percent.
    With this, I ponder ... What to do in my quest for better returns with some of my cash as it builds?
    Option 1) Sit tight and build cash while I await the next stock market dip (or pull back) where I can put an equity special investment position (spiff) into play. Generally, in the past, I'd look to make at least five percent off my spiffs when engaged. For me, this will work.
    Option 2) I can buy more of my commodity strategy fund (BCSAX) which has a yield of better than 2% and as inflation rises usually the price of commodities rise. This fund holds some gold and gold mining stocks as well. It should do well if the US Dollar continues to decline and the price of commodities rise. For me, this will work.
    Option 3) I can buy more of my real estate income fund (FRINX). As the US Dollar declines generally real estate values increase plus long term this would act as a hedge against inflation. Woops already have a full allocation to real estate and high yield securites. No go here.
    Option 4) Buy more of my convertible (FISCX) and preffered (PFANX) securities funds. Hold up ... already have a full allocation there.
    Option 5) Buy more in my asset allocation funds and let my fund managers find opportunity. This would also work because it would spread the funds's asset mix among those I'm already invested in thus maintaining my asset allocation. Two funds that I'm thinking of are CFIAX & INPAX.
    So, for me, going forward, over the near term, it looks like my better choices are numbers 1, 2, & 5 of the options I covered.
    I am also wondering what you might have thought of and where you might be positioning new money in this low yield environment?
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Take care ... be safe ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    I am ... Old_Skeet
    Stay Safe , Derf
  • Small Cap Value
    RE: US News Rankings...
    You really don't need to go any further than looking at their #1 ranked SCV fund, DFFVX.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=DFFVX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    How is a M* 3* fund that ranked in its SCV category
    2011-YTD
    72-23-10-65-46-40-40-55-52-45-24
    even REMOTELY regarded as Best in Class?
    Seriously, ONCE in the Top Ten percentile in 11 years, and it's magically the #1 ranked SCV fund?
    This is NOT a one-off comparison. I've made these comparisons for YEARS with their rankings and I've NEVER been able to justify any more than a glance at them.
    Kind of reminds me of some of the old stock "Supervised Lists" from back in the 80's, some of which required the company to fund the inclusion of their stock on the list, if you get my drift.
  • Small Cap Value
    I used to own PVFIX for many years almost since inception, but sold it this year to use the proceeds to acquire LLSCX. The fund is definitely a SCV fund but it used to hold a lot of cash and was very conservative.
    BRSIX has done well with the small cap rally. QRSIX has also done well of late (I own both BRSIX & QRSIX via FPPTX consolidation).
  • A marathon not a race
    Thanks @JohnN.
    Just skimmed this. Looks interesting. Problem I have with specific advice like this: Is this free investment advice from Merrill Lynch the same as what they tell their wealthy clients? Something tells me it’s inferior to what their paying customers get. Perhaps “stale” advice that others have already acted on?
    Reasonable I suppose is their recommendation to own short duration bonds now. What I’m doing. But it raises the interesting question of when, if ever, will U.S. investment grade bonds be a good investment again?Conventional wisdom seems to suggest that longer dated bonds only make sense during bond bull markets. Well - We’ve been in a 36 Year Bond Bill Market - dating back to 1982 when rates began falling.
    Surely investors won’t need to wait 36 years until the current bear market in bonds ends? 36 years until bonds become reasonable value? I’d like to think fixed income of varying duration can be a productive asset within a portfolio even during periods of generally rising rates. Much depends on manager and techniques used. Just some thoughts.
  • Small Cap Value
    Value funds of all stripes have been drifting toward and into blend for the past few years. In moderation this doesn't worry me, so long as they keep a value tilt. My thinking is that funds that move around within reason can be holding true to their general mandate while still seeking out the more attractive areas to invest in.
    At the same time, I agree that where a fund's portfolio is positioned skews performance numbers and needs to be considered when comparing funds. The style purist sidesteps this problem by focusing on funds that home in on their declared style box.
    It is quite possible that value funds that have wandered into the blend category may start wandering back, especially if their managers perceive a rotation into value. If that happens, it may not be so important to look for funds that are currently pure value.
    That said, comments about a few of the funds mentioned:
    American Century (ASVIX) has been in small cap value for the past few years (per M*); though it is just on the value side of the value/blend divide. It hasn't yet migrated to blend. (Lipper however does classify it as core, i.e. blend; it's that close to the line).
    The only TRP fund I know that purported to be SCV was, well, TRP SCV, PRSVX. That fund drifted into blend so many years ago that it is now leaning toward growth.
    BRSVX - a fund I've always rooted for (I like the fund company) but had a rough decade. Its style purity should help should we see a real rotation into value. There's also BRSIX if you're interested in micro caps.
    QRSVX drifted over the line to blend a couple of years ago but is still in the value half of the equity universe. It's too late now, but the better (read cheaper) way to have invested in it was to have purchased FPPTX and waited for it to convert into QRSIX, the cheaper shares of Queens Road SCV.