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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What Is A SPAC? - Everything SPAC And How It Works (Video)
    Before they were all the rage, Mrs. Ruffles's employer, which was owned by private equity, merged with a SPAC a few years ago to go public. It has done well based on the share price. Unfortunately, its sponsor started a few more SPAC’s whose mergers have not been so successful.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Regarding being late to the party in buying the stocks of vaccine makers, consider the example of one high-flyer, NVAX. This company, started about 35 years ago by Johns Hopkins scientists, had never produced a successful vaccine until the current entry in the COVID sweepstakes. Every time there was a scare such as SARS and the like, including the flu, NVAX would be touted as the company most likely to get a vaccine candidate to market. The shares rose and fell (mostly fell) in accordance with the rumors; investors did not profit. I’ll grant you a Présidents Day virtual medal if you stuck with this stock, even when it was under $2, and now have a massive profit. Please give me enough time to inform the foundary that they need to strike a medal.
    My wife and I had sore arms after our first Pfizer shot February 9 and we are scheduled for the second one on March 2. We feel fortunate and are prepared for a day of chills and fever post-shot.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    An extra note: even after her first afib episode and its treatment, my wife's cardiologist said "You must get the second shot".
    The danger of Covid outweighs the side effects of the vaccine.
    David
    I'm just going to add that I did NOT have an afib reaction to the first shot although I've had afib issues for over ten years. Three ablations, every medication known, etc. Again, anecdotal, but don't just assume that the shot will kick it off. All the reactions seem to be hit-or-miss depending on the individual, and prediction seems unfruitful.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    It is never too late to buy Moderna and Pfizer stocks. I think health care funds/ETFs will do well for years to come. Pfizer stands to make over $10 billions per year for COVID-19 vaccine, and the battle has just began.
  • C19 vacc side effects
    "With so many adverse effects not sure many will take c19 vacc in 2022. Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose...takes 4 6 wks to develop immunity against c19 which may explains reinfection even after 2nd dose vaccines"
    OK, so let's just take this apart a little...
    "With so many adverse effects".. .
    • Exactly how many, as a percentage of shots given?
    • Can you cite a reliable source for this?
    "Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose."
    • Again, exactly how many, as a percentage of shots given?
    • Again, can you cite a reliable source for this claim?
    "takes 4 6 wks to develop immunity against c19 which may explains reinfection even after 2nd dose vaccines"
    • Exactly what is that supposed to mean? What "reinfection"? Are you stating that people who have already had the virus have become reinfected?
    John, over the years you have compiled quite a record of unreliable, unsubstantiated, or obviously incorrect statements here on MFO, which you present, often completely out of any reasonable context, as "facts".
    While that unenviable record has usually dealt with financial or political matters, I suggest that the issues concerning Covid 19 are far too serious for such careless and unhelpful comments.
  • Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others
    Howdy @JonGaltIII
    Since the 2010 census, about 10,000 baby boomers a day (retire, too) have crossed the age 65 threshold and by 2030, all boomers will be at least age 65. From 2019 data the boomers are about 72 million in population. Our house is boomers x 2. While there are now and will be failures of individual holdings within healthcare, I still fully consider this a growth area for equity. These folks will require more maintenance than the under 40 age group, yes? There will be the fails of hospitals, health insurance companies and the best laid plans for the next magic drug. There will likely also be continued mergers and acquisitions of big and small companies in many areas. This sector has had its recent funky periods (2015-2016), so it is not a slam dunk; but I still have faith in the broad sectors.
    From the devils advocate perspective, One would have to perform an overview of personal holdings to discover how much exposure your holdings have to healthcare now and how much you desire. The 3 below breakdowns give a hint to health sectors from various funds.
    Our own personal perspective is provide equity exposure that is meaningful to performance of the entire portfolio. We generally do not hold less than 10% of total portfolio in a given investment area. Performance may allow this number to become 25%; but this is an individuals judgement; based upon portfolio risk and faith in the sector.
    Our healthcare holdings travel the road between United Healthcare and genomics and whatever else is in the mix. The healthcare holdings over the years has more than paid for our supplemental insurance plans via United Healthcare. Invest in what you (and many others) use.
    Though FSMEX is currently open, the last hard close was a no-notify close at the end of a business; without a grace period.
    Lastly, if one were to have a full tour of various medical areas in a large hospital; you'd be able to view a large number of products from companies where you hold investments.
    My 2 cents worth.
    Take care,
    Catch
    AS OF 12/31/2020
    FSPHX Portfolio Weight
    Biotechnology 24.27%
    Health Care Equipment 20.25%
    Managed Health Care 18.10%
    Pharmaceuticals 18.03%
    Health Care Services 8.04%
    Life Sciences Tools & Services 6.93%
    Health Care Technology 1.51%
    Health Care Facilities 1.36%
    Application Software 0.65%
    Research & Consulting Services 0.29%
    Other Diversified Financial Services 0.08%
    Investment Banking & Brokerage 0.02%
    FSMEX Portfolio Weight
    Health Care Equipment 55.23%
    Life Sciences Tools & Services 23.09%
    Managed Health Care 5.75%
    Health Care Supplies 3.90%
    Health Care Technology 3.79%
    Health Care Services 3.46%
    Biotechnology 2.34%
    Application Software 0.86%
    Insurance Brokers 0.52%
    Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 0.38%
    Research & Consulting Services 0.36%
    Textiles 0.22%
    Investment Banking & Brokerage 0.03%
    FSPGX Portfolio Weight (likely a typical growth index weighting)
    Information Technology 44.88%
    Consumer Discretionary 16.67%
    Health Care 13.49%
    Communication Services 10.99%
    Consumer Staples 4.53%
    Industrials 4.51%
    Financials 1.86%
    Real Estate 1.61%
    Materials 0.80%
    Multi Sector 0.54%
    Energy 0.08%
    Utilities 0.02%
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Foreign stuff is still only 10% of my portf. TEN percent, to be exact, and NINE percent of THAT is in PRIDX. It is a SMID fund. I was a bit surprised to see:
    21% in Consumer Cycl.
    Tech. 17.31
    Healthcare 15.32
    Industrials 14.45%.
    ...I'd have figured Healthcare to be on top.
    In the old regime before the '08-'09 Crash and prior to Covid, my thinking was that Europe was the "Old World" and was full of "old money," which mostly just sat there, doing... not much of anything. ... But if I'm not mistaken, European gov'ts are putting their markets on a meth-high, just like in the States, and maybe an even stronger dose. Of course, they have the EC to deal with, for member States. And I'm NOT intending anything negative about the EU and how it works. Better than FIGHTING and KILLING in a THIRD World War!
    ... Years ago, I did some reading about "Red" European bonds and "Blue" European Bonds. I do not think that the EU ITSELF as an entity is issuing any bonds, yet. Which is to say: I don't think there are any "Blue" bonds to buy, yet. Difficult, I suppose, to arrange for such a thing. How would a float like that be funded? In the EU, you have States that are in better health economically than many others....
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Interesting reading here. I owned FSELX for a while. I subscribed to the notion that AI will be growing and semiconductors is a prudent long term high growth play. It probably still is but the gyrations with NVidia and Intel - I couldn't take the volatility and sold it. It was probably a mistake. Long term... this is likely a good bet.
    Another fund I had was @Puddnhead FSDAX . I bought it 5 years ago before the last administration took office. It was a pure guess that a focus on Defense and build up would be positive for this fund. I did sell it in late 1999 or early 2020 (I can't recall exactly when). Pudd - are you still in it?
    I save a little space to speculate in sector funds or "trending" spaces. In 2021 - I'm in EM + Small Cap + Healthcare as my trending...
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Not sure about early data but influenza incidents way down this yr compared to previously (probably because of masks)
    Dr FU stated previously c19 vaccines maybe annual events from now onward
    With so many adverse effects not sure many will take c19 vacc in 2022. Many Healthcare workers report feeling very sick fevers tireness and flu symptoms after 2nd dose...takes 4 6 wks to develop immunity against c19 which may explains reinfection even after 2nd dose vaccines
    In Austin Tx they are staring to vaccinate 60 years or older now or if you have other underling med conditions
    Stay safe
  • C19 vacc side effects
    Sure. Its efficacy rate under trial conditions is virtually identical to Pfizer's. Along with Pfizer's vaccine, it appears to be more effective than AstraZeneca's against the South African strain. At the moment, it (along with some of the other vaccines) is the best thing available.
    According to the FDA in its EUA letter:
    Based on the safety and effectiveness data, and review of manufacturing information regarding product quality and consistency, it is reasonable to believe that Moderna COVID‑19 Vaccine may be effective. Additionally, it is reasonable to conclude, based on the totality of the scientific evidence available, that the known and potential benefits of Moderna COVID‑19 Vaccine outweigh the known and potential risks of the vaccine, for the prevention of COVID-19 in individuals 18 years of age and older.
    https://www.fda.gov/media/144636/download
    The FDA goes on to require the following fact sheet to be provided to vaccine recipients:

    WHAT IS THE MODERNA COVID-19 VACCINE?
    The Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine is an unapproved vaccine that may prevent COVID-19. There is no FDA-approved vaccine to prevent COVID-19.
    The FDA has authorized the emergency use of the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 18 years of age and older under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).
    https://www.modernatx.com/covid19vaccine-eua/eua-fact-sheet-recipients.pdf
  • C19 vacc side effects
    LA Times: The FDA didn’t ‘approve’ Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.
    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-12-12/why-fda-didnt-approve-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-eua
    In the case of a vaccine, authorization can be granted if “the known and potential benefits outweigh the known and potential risks,” the FDA says.
    Some (most?) people equate that with "generally safe"; I read it as "safe enough".
    In anticipation of "look at the evidence" response, here's more from the LA Times:
    • It was 95% effective at preventing cases of COVID-19 in both Latinos and non-Latinos.
    • It was 100% effective in Black people.
    • It was 94% effective in people who were at least 56 years old. (The older you get, the greater the risk of a serious case of COVID-19.)
    • It was 95% effective in those who had at least one medical condition that made them more likely to develop a serious case of COVID-19.
    • It was 96% effective for people who were obese, another condition that makes people more vulnerable to COVID-19.
    Yet none of this was enough for the vaccine to win official FDA approval.
    One can certainly disagree with the FDA and assert that the vaccines are "generally safe", i.e. safe for general (not just emergency) use. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.
  • Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others
    I have owned the Eventide offering for a couple years--good performance but concentrated in biotech so higher beta than others mentioned as well as expense ratio. Although not a prerequisite, I note that the portfolio manager is a physician which may enhance the on-board appreciation and understanding of therapeutic potential and market of holdings.
    Also hold IHI, which may benefit even further once elective procedures regain their pre-Covid status
  • Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others
    @bee I read every one of those MFO posts via search. I saw a lot of folks support FSMEX... but I posted on the off chance someone had some info or reasoning why they would prefer FSPHX more. So far, the search is proving FSMEX or the ETF is the favored option from the people here. That’s what is great about this site. The history ‘ search is dense with good info. It also gives me a sense of people’s investing style/. Thanks for sharing. Have already learned a lot from your posts.
    One thing I’ve learned over the last couple of years... is to not be so sentimental with funds and keep them just because of past or even current performance when there are better ones out there outperforming and it’s “easier” (lazy) to just keep the one you have.
  • Health Sector Funds: FSPHX vs FSMEX and others
    I have owned FSEMX for a fair number of years and have no plans to liquidate. I know there is an ETF that invest in healthcare technology, but I am not familiar with it.
    Over the years, I have owned most of the funds you mentioned, but FSMEX stand out.
    I like the idea of investing in the technology of healthcare (for the most part). It appears to be a niche that has a very long run ahead.
    JMHO, Matt
  • Is this time different ?!
    YES, indeed. This time is different remains in place since the market melt in 2008. These observations have been expressed over the years here. The market melt of 2008 impacted economic sectors, unlike sectors affected today. But, 2008 brought large policy changes for the functions of monetary policy from central banks. These processes are still being sorted today, as to what, where and when. Other investing sectors changes were already in place, and continue now. We know technology continues to impact and the market place has continued to innovate investment choices via more and more thematic oriented placements.
    MOTIF was an early player in this space, where one could build there own thematic investment or invest in other existing themes. From a 2020 notification:
    After ten years in the investment space, online brokerage platform Motif will be shutting down operations on May 20. The company notified users via email on April 17 in a message saying, “At this time, we've made the decision to cease operations and transfer your account to Folio Investments.”
    Anyhoo. Covid brought forth another new era of investing. Unlike the 2008 melt, when one could still go to a restaurant, vacation or whatever else; Covid removed the social functions, and impacting the economies in a whole new fashion.
    Then the rise of the "inequality retail traders" via Robinhood, etc. Some of this birth reportedly had roots in the "Occupy Wall Street" movement years ago.
    The writer of the article mentions social media and impacts. I fully agree with this thought. Fortunately for him and our house, too; he/we are able to discover some of what is taking place within the 20-40 y.o. groups relative to social media, and what may be of value as related to investing.
    We ask questions of some of the younger ones as to what is going on within social media, who and/or what is "trending". As with anything related to what is investment worthy; we attempt to ask the proper question in hopes of receiving a proper answer/observation.
    This area (social media) travels at the "speed of electrons". Robinhood and related have and will continue to impact retail markets; and one can be assured that the big institutional houses have likely established folks from the 20-40 y.o. group to keep them informed. If this is not the case, they are missing the investment boat.
    >>>This write is for informational purposes only, as I'm not formally trained in economics or psychology.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    Good grief! SPCAX has a turnover ratio of 4,249% according to M*. Maybe @msf’s legion of fact checkers/researchers could compute the average holding period for a typical position given that number. IIRC, a 20% TOR results from holding a position for 5 years.
    This is one of your more opaque funds, with derivatives, shorts, and 25% of assets in the management company's Cayman Islands subsidiary. And the turnover figure presented represents only a small portion of the portfolio (the few "vanilla" holdings). So I'm afraid that any turnover calculation (even if I could decrypt all of this) wouldn't be meaningful.
    From the annual report: "The Commodity Strategies Global Macro Fund may invest up to 25% of its total assets in the subsidiary, a wholly-owned and controlled subsidiary formed under the laws of the Cayman Islands." M* reports 25.11% of the portfolio in "Cayman" as of June 30th.
    From the SAI:
    The Commodity Strategies Global Macro Fund's portfolio turnover rates for the fiscal years ended June 30, 2020, and June 30, 2019 were 4,249% and 5,463%, respectively. ... As defined, the portfolio turnover rate calculation may only include the turnover of "securities" within the Fund’s portfolio .... The calculation does not include the turnover of other instruments in which the Fund more commonly invests, such as commodity futures instruments and other derivatives. The portfolio turnover rate, therefore, only provides a turnover rate on a narrow portion of assets purchased and sold within the Fund’s overall portfolio. The Advisor estimates that if futures contracts and derivatives were included in the calculation, the portfolio turnover ratio for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020 would have been lower
    One would certainly hope that the turnover rate for the whole portfolio is lower!
    A few numeric oddities that one doesn't need to be an accounting expert to see:
    • the cheaper Institutional shares have underperformed the Advisor shares by 0.02% over the past one and three years;
    • while the website says: "[the Advisor] share class includes an explicit 0.25% shareholder servicing fee", the prospectus reports a 0.20% fee; and
    • the investor class shares have "other" fees that are 0.19% higher than the advisor class fees (per prospectus)

  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    Hey @davidmoran,
    " When the students are ready to learn, the teacher will appear"
    Hmm... I think I heard that on an old kung Fu tv show years back.
    Best of luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Portfolio Fun...
    I owned some Matthews years ago. A very bad customer service experience--- with one of the SENIOR guys--- caused me to empty my account with them. I still have faith in Teresa Kong at MAINX. I track that one, and MAPIX, because they're in a friend's portfolio--- which I've been babysitting since 2010. ...As for my current holdings, I've got nothing terribly unconventional. I just sold some shares which amount to 2.62% of our total holdings. Good time to do it, with Markets at or near a top, day after day. It is ALL profit! This time, I spread out the withdrawal between a few funds we own. Wifey wants a house to retire to, and for her family to use over there, between now and then. A house for $6,000? And you'll be satisfied with that? "Sure, ok." 2 storeys, sliding glass door, balcony, great view of the surrounding hills. It's out in the country, in her old barrio, where she grew up.
  • Diversifying with Bond Funds
    If you are a trader like me and watch momentum you switch. I held PIMIX for about 7 years. I also watch very high risk and why I sold prior to the meltdown last March(link) and bought after it.
    It's also pretty obvious from my table above that PIMIX is way behind the leaders for 1-3 months and what I use for my investments as a trader.
  • Best Ideas for Commodity Exposure
    Elsewhere I read that catalytic converters are disappearing from parked cars because of their rare metals content. Signs of a bubble or social commentary re: the new normal?
    Prices for the precious metals used in catalytic converters have increased significantly.
    "From about $500 an ounce five years ago, the price of palladium quintupled to hit a record of $2,875 an ounce last year, and is now hovering between $2,000 and $2,500 an ounce, above the price of gold. Rhodium prices have skyrocketed more than 3,000% from about $640 an ounce five years ago to a record $21,900 an ounce this year, roughly 12 times the price of gold." Link