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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    @FD1000
    I'm not a long term holder but a trader and avoided the big losses of March 2020.
    Were they really big losses?
    If you had instead, not sold and just held your positions the draw down for JASVX was 6% in March of 2020. By May of 2020 you would have recovered from that loss without timing the market.
    Had you been taking monthly withdrawals, those withdrawals would have been impacted slightly over 2 months. Having a 3-6 month cash position for withdrawals would solve that problem.
    To be fair, IOFIX and SEMMX have yet to recover. Owning these two funds (that exhibit deep draw downs and slow recovers) may not the best choice for those seeking "yield with safety". I learn this the hard way owning THOPX.
    JASVX - Hindsight is a great thing when you can look back until today :-)
    I have used PIMIX until 01/2018, SEMMX for most of 2018 and then IOFIX in 2019+2020. HOBIX,JASVX are funds I started using in 2020.
    The above are all mentioned on my thread (link)
    JASVX - at least one of the managers came from SEMMX but it did much better than SEMMX. I love fresh new funds where the managers can do better.
    These funds can have very good risk/reward for months, even years, until markets are volatile and why I exit. VIX > 35-40 is a good indicator of that.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • Rotation from growth to value
    It is fascinating to analyze RPG and RPV vs FXAIX over the last 14+ years and the shorter periods of your choosing:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=fxaix
    Weighting issues aside (plug in RSP to see that dynamic delta), value just gets hammered with any crashes, outperforms growth otherwise for the most part or at least keeps up, but the 09 and 20 crashes --- everyone but me knows these were close to on the same day???? --- crippled value.
    Big ups for value the last couple months. Odd. Wonder if it lasts.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • Rotation from growth to value
    There’s a growth vs value chart in the link that I find fascinating. It shows that as of 11/11/20, on a one-year basis, the growth fund IVW has outpaced the value fund IVE by close to the extreme for the last 20 years. A spread of 34.2% . (!). No thoughts on when that might revert.
    The Capital Speculator
    What happened today? The markets never move in a straight line.
    Rbrt Rbrt in Fund Discussions
  • Gold Prices Fall By Most In 3 Months on Covid Vaccine News
    Thanks for taking a look @Mark. The photo is a “cheat” - as it’s a MS 70 “proof“ coin specially minted for collectors (to celebrate 50 years of K-Rands) in 2017. Same gold content and overall design - but minted using higher relief dies to give it some extra sharpness. Wouldn’t mind owning it.
    Actually, I took a few pennies off the “gold roulette table“ this morning on a slight bounce today. Generally been pulling risk out of all my spec positions this week & building cash. Already been a good year (at least for most all of us) - so why gamble when you don’t have to?
    Don’t care for the smell of things in Washington, plus the Covid has gone wild everywhere - and up here in northern Michigan the past week or two. Admittedly, those factors might possibly be good for gold in some perverse way - but not for equities.
    Good luck with your latest move.
    hank in Other Investing
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    Yep, I have been using Fidelity CC 2% cash back and Penfed CC 5% cash back on all gas for years. We charge all we can from $1 to paying our property taxes with no additional fees.
    But, that's not really the subject of this thread :-)
    As part of my goals and style I mainly use bond funds + trading on momentum. I'm concentrated on total returns and not higher income but I have noticed that I used funds such as PIMIX for years until 01/2018 and since then SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,HOBIX,JASVX and they pay at least 4%. I'm not a long term holder but a trader and avoided the big losses of March 2020.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • Roth IRA- Preferred buying and holdings-Owners in their 80's
    Roth money is often mentioned as the last pool of money that one should draw from.
    I agree , but I tend to also see Roth money as a pool of money that one can pull from at anytime in retirement. Spending these Roth withdrawals as income has the advantage of making your spending go further since it can be spent tax free.
    Early on in my savings career my Roth dollars were positioned in my most aggressive investments. As I have entered retirement, I have re-positioned 3-5 years of income needs using Roth dollars. I place these Roth dollars into less aggressive investments while the rest attempts to grow aggressively (long term).
    bee bee in Fund Discussions
  • Roth IRA- Preferred buying and holdings-Owners in their 80's
    Mark, not necessarily for income but over all the years I have done most everything but now can't decide where to focus. It depends mostly on the market and our 2 regular IRA's are well invested broadly. I even had FPF years ago and other prefered stock funds.
    ron in Fund Discussions
  • HECM Reverse Mortgage Thread
    I am 61 years old and I am gathering information regarding reverse mortgages. Reverse mortgages become available to individuals after age 62. I plan on considering a reverse mortgage not for income (think annuity), but instead as a source for a growing line of credit (think HELOC). In a low interest rate environment, establishing reverse mortgage early (age 62), paying closing costs (much like a conventional mortgage), then maintaining a low balance (zero balance is better) creates a very interesting growth of line of credit for retirees who want to stay in their home.
    This is an excerpt from Wade Pfau's book, Reverse Mortgages: How to Use Reverse Mortgages to Secure Your Retirement
    Forbes Review of his book:
    reverse-mortgage-calculator
    HUD offers information on the topic:
    https://hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm/hecmhome
    https://hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm
    This Calculator help you understand how much can be borrowed (think of this as a line of credit):
    https://reversemortgagevalue.com/calculator/
    Why not just take out a HELOC?
    Benefits of a HELOC:
    Lower interest rates in most cases
    Lower upfront costs
    May be more suitable for short term-needs
    Benefits of a HECM:
    Loan does not become due as long as all the loan obligations are met*
    Line of credit cannot be frozen due to changing market values*
    No monthly mortgage payments*
    Source:
    compare-hecm-to-heloc
    Another one of the reverse mortgage advantages over the HELOC is the reliability that the HECM line of credit will stay open and available when needed. HELOCs are notorious for suddenly being decreased or being closed altogether, especially if the borrower has not been actively drawing from the loan. This is difficult because many borrowers prefer to have a line of credit available and open to withdraw from only if the time comes when a need arises. To be forced to stay actively borrowing on the credit line in order to keep an open status or finding out the line of credit has been decreased or closed suddenly would be frustratingly inconvenient for anyone.
    The HECM LOC also has an advantage of significant line of credit growth potential. Taking out a HECM early in retirement and keeping the credit line open for use in the future proves to be a popular strategic plan. The unused line of credit grows at current expected interest rates; therefore, taking a HECM at 62 gives your line of credit time to grow as opposed to waiting until 82, especially if the expected reverse mortgage interest rates increase over time.
    differences-reverse-mortgage-hecm-line-credit-home-equity-line-credit-heloc
    An 8 Point Comparison of HECMs vs HELOCs:
    https://mlsreversemortgage.com/title-bout-hecm-vs-heloc/
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • Puerto Rico
    I know a couple of individuals who own a few PR bonds. Most but not all from these small samples are nonperforming. One went from performing to nonperforming in the past couple of years. Their prices have bounced all over the map, with some bonds holding most of their value, while one dropped to 60% or so of par, rebounded to 80%, declined back into the 60s, and now sits around 70%. (It will depend on the source of revenue backing the bonds.)
    Needless to say, PR is not exercising its call options on these or other bonds. So they may be outstanding for decades.
    If you like speculating on fairly volatile non-income-producing assets, you could look at these bonds. Or if you feel you have special insight into the various negotiations that seem to be forever ongoing, you could try to take advantage of that knowledge. Otherwise, this is not an asset class I would consider getting into on my own.
    A fund might dabble in the bonds for capital appreciation, playing on the volatility or the politics. I think that's fine, but something best left to the professional managers.
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Puerto Rico
    No takers? I do believe one of my funds does still hold a very small stake in PR bonds. Don't ask me which one. Some years ago, PR was still a tax haven. Big Money would make their HQ in PR, and of course they would hire employees down there, too. But the economy there is a black hole. There is talk of making PR a State, along with D.C. But that idea has been floated more than once before. I think the people of PR prefer the territorial arrangement: they can have their cake and eat it, too. There are somehow, some advantages they would lose, with Statehood. Also, my friend from PR has told me stories of the poverty that his family lived in, before he came to the States. They were not alone.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Opened on 11/2/20 - TLDTX / T Rowe Price Ltd. Duration TIPS Index Fund
    TLDTX ER after wavier .21%
    Stumbled on this by accident. Was going to move a bit into their existing (managed) Limited Duration TIPS fund (TRBFX) when this one popped into view. TRBFX has a duration under 2 years. I couldn’t dig up the duration on this one, although I know the index is a 1-5 year index. Thus, duration is hopefully 2.5 years or less.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Futures jump with news on vaccine for covid (news link from CNBC)
    Remember Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require to keep frozen at least -2 C (dry ice temp) while flu vaccine is kept at refrigerator temp. Logistics on distribution will be a challenge but it can done ...
    Good point. I learned only recently that the MD & clinic that have served as my GP for over 20 years doesn’t have the sophisticated refrigeration apparatus to store and administer the new shingles vaccine because of the expense of installing and maintaining such equipment (super cold temperatures). However, the local Walgreens does have the equipment.
    What this suggests to me that there will be a slow roll-out and long lines at first at labs where the Covid vaccine can be administered. Trump has repeatedly said that our armed forces will administer it quickly. But somehow, I can’t get my head around the image of specially equipped Army refrigeration trucks and trained medical personnel rolling down my street dispensing this vaccine. Hopefully, after med personnel and first responders, etc. get their “fix“, those of us post-70 will have a crack at it (no pun intended).
    hank in Other Investing
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    I've not bought any new funds in 2020, but have had many debates with myself about holding some that I already own.
    I've had Fidelity Growth Fund FDGRX in my IRA for quite a few years. It's been a solid fund which really took off earlier in 2020. I just couldn't believe the growth rate was sustainable -- it really became a momentum play -- so I took money off the table in early June. What a dummy!
    It wiggled a little, but continued to go up. I did retain some shares in case I want to get back in (it's closed to new investors).
    My largest position is Fidelity Select Semiconductors FSELX, also in my IRA. It can be very volatile.
    Every time it hits a new peak, I consider cashing in.
    Every time it plummets, I wish I had cashed in, but hold on.
    It's up 44.5 % for the past 12 months (and 21.2% per year for the past 10 years, which is why it's become my largest position).
    Not in 2020 but last year, I bought Acre Focus AKREX because of comments on this board. It has been a solid fund -- thanks, folks.
    David
    dstone42 in Fund Discussions
  • this time it's not the same (or is it?)
    First a side note - the author says he plans to work for 46 years! Egad!
    Maybe most of these “factor bets” require you to keep the faith (& rebalance) and hope your day comes. And it may be fleeting - don’t be greedy, rebalance back out. Folks used to say that about commodity funds, like PCRDX.
    I have made the SV bet in VBR & I’m sticking with it.
    Rbrt Rbrt in Other Investing
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    I have the same reaction. I could never hope to stay on top of so many funds. I use the KISS principle. Granted, my asset total is more than likely much smaller than the rest of you. So keeping things simple is easier for me. I understand selling, in order to "harvest" a tax-loss. But I don't even have that one on my grocery list. I do not even look in that direction. Am I just lucky? Over the years, I've not made too many changes. I stick with losers only to give them a bit of time to show me whether they're going to start making money again. When the day comes, I pull the trigger and sell. I started investing in 2003.
    Right. Not to mention, even if one of the funds goes ballistic, it's still maybe a couple % of the portfolio. Seems pointless to me. Also, a quick overview of these funds looks like the OP is paying heavy fees for these funds to under perform. Not to make this an pro-index rant (I own both), but it looks like the OP would have been better off dumping it all in VTSAX with its .04 fee and forgetting about it for a long, long time.
    Starchild Starchild in Fund Discussions
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    I have the same reaction. I could never hope to stay on top of so many funds. I use the KISS principle. Granted, my asset total is more than likely much smaller than the rest of you. So keeping things simple is easier for me. I understand selling, in order to "harvest" a tax-loss. But I don't even have that one on my grocery list. I do not even look in that direction. Am I just lucky? Over the years, I've not made too many changes. I stick with losers only to give them a bit of time to show me whether they're going to start making money again. When the day comes, I pull the trigger and sell. I started investing in 2003.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions
  • Seeking Yield With Safety

    A second topic that came up is yields. There is the SEC Yield and trailing twelve month yields. Some funds pay annual dividends and others pay one time dividends. Why should you care? Take GAVIX. The forward yield is 7.1%, the four year average yield is 6% ...
    The fund paid no income divs in 2018 or 2019. In 2016 it paid $0.07523/share with a reinvestment price of $14.73 (0.51%), and in 2015 it paid $0.06761/share with a reinvestment price of $13.54 (0.50%). That's an average dividend yield of 0.25% over the past four years.
    Even if one includes cap gains, distributions over the past four years were:
    2019: $0.90414 reinvested at $13.21 (6.84%)
    2018: $0.83899 reinvested at $12.71 (6.60%)
    2017: $0.49539 reinvested at $14.73 (3.36%)
    2016: $0.479321 reinvested at $13.54 (3.54%)
    The cap gains in 2018 and 2019 (there were no dividend distributions) did average 6%+, but over four years I can't see how, even after adding income divs and cap gains together, one could average 6%.
    My data source is Fidelity's distribution page for the fund. I've verified the total distribution figures at the source: https://knowledgeleadersfunds.com/
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    So much of fund performance seems driven by fund flows...especially for bond funds. Does anyone know of a screener that tracks this?
    I agree that fund flows can both accelerate a fund’s positive performance when money is streaming in and exacerbate losses when money flows out. There are probably some better methods / sources than what I use. But MaxFunds does present a “hot money” barometer. For OAKBX (a fund I sold 2 years ago) it rates the hot money flow as “average” 3/5.
    MaxFund Screener OAKBX
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Fund Moves in 2020
    Not a particular judgement on the funds, but simply matter of not wanting to pay taxes because of all my put income this year. Some of them have indeed stunk up the place, though. In a market they are supposed to excel, they have been found wanting.
    Would like to hear from others which funds they gave up on because I don't want to land in those funds without having the full picture.
    At this point completely out of these funds
    BPRRX, BGRSX (to cut a long story short ...no pun intended)
    APPLX (selling each of last 3 years...what the effing F)
    GRSPX (meh...)
    MDISX, MQIFX (last of the funds I fell in love with the idea of owning, gotten over that the day I sold HSGFX)
    All Artisan funds I owned with "value" in the name but looking to buy back (still one I own, see below)
    RPHYX, RSIVX, WMCNX (Sorry people, I can do better selling puts)
    PRIJX (hoodwinked into the emerging markets value will do well idea, was in my MILs account)
    PVFIX (found alternative, see below)
    Funds I sold partially and still hold
    FMIMX
    ARTKX (if I sell it will generate capital gains)
    COBYX (my condolence to the manager's family who passed, but really when are you going to turn around?)
    Funds looking to sell at least some off to capture tax loss, hard decisions
    IVWAX (my bad luck has to be excellent, manager has to leave, and with all that cash still stinks)
    VGPMX (not "golden" any more)
    VSIAX (bad timing)
    WHGIX, FEVAX (not too worried, but since I don't reinvest dividends, have a loss on cost basis)
    Moves that paid off
    TMSRX (For MILs account)
    PVCMX (Mr Cinnamond, you are not allowed to closed and then re-open new fund any more, it's illegal)
    VLAAX, VALIX (lucky timing)
    ONERX (Jeff Wrona found God. M* says NEGATIVE. F Them. Rock On)
    Out of curiosity, why do you hold so many funds? I'm ballparking statistically here, but if most funds fail to beat the market, aren't you raising your chances of under performing the market with each fund you add?
    Starchild Starchild in Fund Discussions
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    The nice thing about cash is that it's there to buy assets that have taken a beating.
    I never had cash long term and hope not to have in the future. I'm only in cash short term, usually days to 2-3 weeks when markets are risky which I determine according to several indicators (VIX and others). Since 2009, which is 11 years, I have been in 30-100% cash about 12 weeks which is about 2%. This means I was invested at 99+% at about 98%.
    Why I don't have cash?
    1) because I have made a lot more money in bond funds.
    2) If I want to trade risky stuff, I buy it and sell my bond funds on the same day. You can do it at Schwab but not Fidelity.
    3) At retirement and for decades I only have several thousands in my bank. There are no emergencies or other incidents where I needed the money within hours unless its illegal drugs or ransom. I can always use my credit cards and pay weeks later. For a larger amount I can sell my mutual funds and get the money within 1-2 days.
    At retirement: if you need cash for expenses and as part of asset allocation you can sell just some share only when you need more money. When stocks are up, sell from stocks, when stocks go down sell some bonds and you better have a portion in ballast bonds. Sure, having 2-3 months in cash isn't a big problem but not 1-2 years.
    FD1000 in Other Investing