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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    Hi @Junkster
    I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
    Couple of items with this.
    Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
    Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
    There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
    1. machine trading
    2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
    3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
    4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
    5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
    6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
    Add to the list if you choose.
    Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
    The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
    My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
    Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
    10 yr German bond PRICE
    Pillow time here.
    Catch
    catch22 catch22 in Fund Discussions
  • We are in a new cycle of low interest rates so get used to it
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eEZe-93MuYc
    Spoke at a seminar with Jim Bianco in 1999 when he was just starting out. While economists have a much worst prediction record than stock market prognosticators I was always impressed with Jim’s acumen. He always seemed wise beyond his years. In the clip from two days ago he was firmly in the this time it is different camp (who isn’t) and low rates are here to stay. I hope he is right for many reasons but getting real uncomfortable with the rates have nowhere to go but down scenario. Eleven months ago everyone was in the camp rates had nowhere to go but up. What a difference a year makes, If I can remember will revisit this topic same time next year.
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat
    What’s also offensive is he’s constantly hocking his sophisticated investment acumen on TV but never mentions the fact that for years his mutual funds stank up the room and were eventually liquidated.
    LewisBraham in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    You get moderated off the M* forum and end up here. You are great at posting after the fact of unsubstantiated trades. You have been offered over $1000 to provide just a year or two of monthly trading statements but refuse. You have been asked to post in real time the day of your trades not days and weeks afterwards but you refuse. IOFIX? You are been vociferous the past year on your dislike of this fund. What exactly are your present holdings and % of total portfolio as of this morning. That is not a difficult question. In my 50 plus years in the game from what I have seen over at M* you are the worst trader I have ever witnessed. And I have dealt with thousands of traders.
    Can’t you just post your analysis which many enjoy and leave out all the fiction of your after the fact trading exploits. I may have to dust off my Crooks Con Men, and Charlatans thread.
    Edit. Here is a thread today over ar M*. Read carefully the comments from Bazinga. A most accurate analysis of the Great Pretender
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/Community-Feedback/Is-the-FD-on-Bonds-thread-locked/m-p/26018#M1312
    Junkster Junkster in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    HSGFX is a terrible fund. I always start with best performers and then look for great risk attribute(SD,max draw,Sharpe,Sortino).
    That lead me to SGIIX,FAIRX,OAKBX) 2000-2008.
    In the last several years I have uses 1) USMV instead of the SP500 2) PRWCX for allocation 3) PIMIX for multisector until 2017 and since then IOFIX,JMSIX,JMUIX
    SPLV is doing better than USMV in the last year and both better than SPY.
    See PV(link)
    The above show that Sharpe+Sortino are much better for USMV than VFINX(SP500) and even PRWCX(allocation) is better because performance is close but SD and others are better.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    And from today, repeating the above total figure, lest anyone think Krugman is (again) a 'what, me worry?' about debt; also the ramifications of not doing the right things with the debt moneys:
    While we're all (rightly) focused on the constitutional crisis, CBO just projected a fiscal 2019 deficit of $984 billion — just shy of a trillion. No need to panic about solvency; but we should marvel both at GOP hypocrisy and how little all this debt bought, 1/
    All through the Obama years, Republicans gave fire-and-brimstone speeches denouncing the evils of budget deficits — and blackmailed Obama into fiscal austerity in the face of high unemployment. Then they blew up the deficit as soon as they were in power, 2/
    The deficit was $660 billion in fiscal 2017 (which ended on Sept. 30 and didn't reflect the Trump tax cut). So we've seen a $320 billion surge, despite a growing economy that should have brought the deficit down. That's a lot of fiscal stimulus! 3/
    Imagine what might have been accomplished if we'd been willing to spend an extra $300 billion a year on infrastructure. Instead, it was mainly taxcuts for businesses and the wealthy, which were supposed to supercharge growth. 4/
    In reality it's unclear at this point whether the taxcut did anything for growth; it certainly didn't lead to the promised surge in investment. 5/
    A best guess is that the taxcut was a bit of a stimulus, but with low bang for the buck; and that its effects were offset, or more than offset, by Trump's trade war. So despite completely abandoning their pretended principles, Rs haven't gotten much. 6/
    In particular, the idea that a booming economy would rescue Trump from his troubles on other fronts now looks farfetched. Moral: if you're going to be a complete hypocrite, at least try to do it right. 7/
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close
    Schwab index funds are cheaper than VG.
    Managed funds:
    It's so easy to find better funds than VG+D&C.
    PRWCX is better than DODBX and most/all other allocation funds.
    PIMIX isn't as good in the last 1-2 years but beat DODIX by a lot for 5-10 years. VG doesn't have Multisetcor funds. Don't fool by DODIX, it's also a light MS fund.
    SPY is better than DODGX. USMV is better than both.
    MFAPX easily beat DODFX for performance and risk attributes
    Pimco bonds funds are better than VG bond funds
    QQQ is better than POGRX.
    Probably, Wellesley is the best VG fund and hard to beat for risk/reward unless you use 2 funds such as USMV+PIMIX.
    Basically, the magic of VG is gone and I was always able to find better funds than D&C.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    We're all different, but this is exactly what most mutual fund investment return data shows to be why 'investor return' does not even come even close to 'fund actual performance'.
    3) ...by looking at 1-3-12-36 months good risk/reward and then select the best ones with 1-3 momentum. That lead to holding some funds for months and some for weeks and the exceptions, like PIMIX, for years. Each of my funds must do well if not, it will be replaced. I call it my NBA team, I'm going to the playoff each year but winning the title isn't guaranteed. I have my core players and supporting player but even the biggest stars are not immune from sitting out.
    MikeM MikeM in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    POGRX lags QQQ for years now(http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=pogrx&region=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams={"zoomKey":9,"version":"US","showNav":true,"defaultShowName":"name","mainSettingId":"main","navSettingId":"nav","benchmarkSettingId":"benchmark","sliderBgSettingId":"sliderBg","volumeSettingId":"volume","defaultBenchmark":false,"id":"FOUSA05B59|FEUSA00003","type":"FO|FE","region":"USA","name":"XNAS:POGRX|XNAS:QQQ","baseCurrency":"USD","defaultBenchmarks":["",""],"chartType":"growth","startDay":"10/09/2009","endDay":"10/08/2019","chartWidth":955,"SMA":[]})
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now
    @Crash
    >> That gov't deficit is already beyond ridiculous.
    Don't forget that this chiefly is money we owe ourselves, and matters when it crowds out investment, which is not happening yet, though of course it might eventually.
    That was the entire post I responded to. Just so that we're clear on "drivebys".
    The Shiller quote was timeless. It was a conceptual statement. I can't tell why you say it doesn't apply fully today. Is that because:
    • Today everyone is taxed the same and is owed the same amount, so that unlike the world of the 1930s, debt and taxes now cancel each other out? or
    • Profligate spending today is less likely to crowd out private investment than in the 1930s? or
    • Adding to today's large deficits would be for better reasons today than in the 1930s?
    Interesting that you say that debt/GDP is key, when Krugman says that it is the interest payments (not the raw debt) that matters. He couches it in more dynamic (i.e. rate) terms, referring to deficit, not debt:
    "[Krugman] then argues that... if the rate of interest on government debt exceeds the rate of growth, either the debt to GDP ratio spirals out of control or the government is forced to tighten fiscal policy." (From your wonkish cite).
    In case you'd like that direct from the horse's mouth: "But this kind of debt spiral can only happen if the interest rate on the debt is higher than the economy’s growth rate." He goes on to say that "debt doesn’t spiral. On the contrary, it tends to fall as a share of GDP unless the government runs large primary deficits." (Emphasis added)
    That's because a large primary deficit significantly increases interest payments even when interest rates aren't higher than GDP growth. How large do you think is too large? We're now at $1T deficits (admittedly fiscal, not primary) and still growing (AP, Oct 7, 2019):
    The government ran a budget deficit of just under $1 trillion in the just-closed fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday.
    The $984 billion deficit tally for 2019 came in more than $200 billion more than last year’s, despite very low unemployment and continuing economic growth. ...
    CBO noted that deficits have been growing faster than the size of the economy for four years in a row, ending 2019 at 4.7 percent of gross domestic product.
    " interest rates are still very low by historical standards" (from Krugman's opinion piece in the NYTimes that you quoted above). This begs the obvious question: what happens when the debt rolls over?
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    The article has solutions(see below) which I don't think are good ones:
    1) When a fund lags, you can't predict it will do well in the next 5-10, it can be an underperformer for years to come.
    2) Financial adviser? I can write 3 pages of why not
    3) What I have done for years is to invest in only 7-8 funds max (in the last several years 4-5) by looking at 1-3-12-36 months good risk/reward and then select the best ones with 1-3 momentum. That lead to holding some funds for months and some for weeks and the exceptions, like PIMIX, for years. Each of my funds must do well if not, it will be replaced. I call it my NBA team, I'm going to the playoff each year but winning the title isn't guaranteed. I have my core players and supporting player but even the biggest stars are not immune from sitting out.
    ============================
    From the article below
    What can we do?
    1) Have a predetermined investment process with a disciplined approach to buying, assessing and selling investments. To discourage myopic focus on a particular investment, build a portfolio of diverse strategies that perform in different ways and in different market conditions.
    2) Be willing to accept periods of underperformance. During tough times, take your eyes off performance with a qualitative assessment. Understand a manager’s investment strategy and process: How do they make investments? Are they staying true to their strategy? Are market conditions impacting their strategy?
    3) Work with a financial advisor who can help to maintain discipline, patience and a long-term focus.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • How Long Can A Good Fund Look Bad?
    FYI: It’s only natural for someone invested in a poorly performing active equity mutual fund to wonder if it’s time to make a change. Should an investor sell a fund if it trails its benchmark for a year? Three years? Five years?
    Turns out, active equity mutual funds that beat their benchmark over a 15-year period experience a whopping nine years of cumulative underperformance on average! Conversely, and perhaps even more surprising, funds that ultimately underperform their benchmark over the same 15-year period cumulatively outperform over 11 of those years on average.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/10/07/how-long-can-a-good-fund-look-bad
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • A Silver Medal…For Stock Picking This Time: (EAALX)
    FYI: Being a multiple—and repeat—winner isn’t a new experience for Joe Hudepohl.
    As the youngest member of the U.S. swimming team at the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona, Mr. Hudepohl earned gold and bronze medals in the 100- and 200-meter freestyle relays. Four years later, he won another gold in Atlanta.
    In similar fashion, Mr. Hudepohl just captured the “silver” and “bronze” medals in the latest round of The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly Winners’ Circle ranking of top mutual-fund managers. And this is the second consecutive round in which Mr. Hudepohl finished near the top of the rankings.
    The gold medalists for the latest round are the co-managers of Akre Focus Fund (AKRIX), Charles “Chuck” Akre and John Neff. The I share class of their fund finished the quarter with a 12-month return of 20%. This year marks the 30th anniversary of Mr. Akre’s founding of his eponymous firm, Akre Capital Management, and the 10th anniversary of Mr. Neff’s arrival to join the team.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-silver-medalfor-stock-picking-this-time-11570414320
    M* Snapshot EAALX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/eaalx/quote
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • Nearly 2 Years Into Early Retirement, Here’s All That I’ve Gotten Wrong
    FYI: In a comment responding to my recent blog post about making better decisions in the face of uncertainty, a reader wrote: “Life is inherently risky. To try to compensate for every contingency is irrational. We can “what if” ourselves right into a straitjacket! You retired early … you won!”
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nearly-2-years-into-early-retirement-heres-all-that-ive-gotten-wrong-2019-08-19/print
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • Chuck Jaffe: For A Real Halloween Treat, Try ‘Cash Or Candy’ This Year
    FYI: I know one thing that kids like more than candy for Halloween.
    Cash.
    For the last three years, I have answered the cry of “Trick or treat?” with a very different question: “Cash or candy?” It’s my effort to change the game on All Hallows Eve, to nurture the children not with nougat and caramel but with a small lesson about money and financial choice.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/for-a-real-halloween-treat-try-cash-or-candy-this-year/
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • Tom Madell Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter: Stocks Are Looking Wobbly
    I always enjoy reading Dr. Madell's perspectives.
    Because of possible downdrafts in the stock market Old_Skeet, now retired, carries more cash than perhaps most. There are several reason for this. They are 1) it provides me an additional safety net should I need additional cash for unexpected expenses where I don't have to sell securities in a down market and 2) it provides me the ability to do some equity buying during down markets.
    I'm now running what I call my all weather asset allocation (20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity) because it affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes portfolio volatility, and provides for long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type mutual funds.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth that equities generally provide which helps offset the effects of inflation.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way principal grows over time.
    Over the past five years, or so, the following years were up years for me. They were 2014, 2016, 2017, and thus far 2019 while 2015 and 2018 have been down years. With this, I now govern and invest with more caution than I did years back when I was in the accumulation phase of investing and had a higher allocation to equities.
    So, for me, Dr. Madell's comments in this months newsletter offers up some good old sage thinking and wisdom. Hopefully, it will for you as well.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    Old_Skeet in Fund Discussions
  • Tom Madell Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter: Stocks Are Looking Wobbly
    FYI: Growth in the world economy is starting to peter out, and perhaps even a recession ahead is not out of the question.
    How should an investor react to the many questions swirling about? Will the trade war with China come to a positive resolution? Will economic data turn decidedly negative? Will Donald Trump be impeached, and if so, what will be the effect on the stock market?
    Perhaps some readers might expect that a Newsletter such as this can provide them with a blueprint for the future, helping them make decisions about their investments. Unfortunately, my crystal ball seems as cloudy as yours might be right now. As a result, what any given investor should do next, if anything, is impossible for me to definitely answer. So much depends on what your goals are for your investments, how dependent your finances are on their performance, how long from now you anticipate holding them, how anxious you get when stocks are falling, and a whole host of other questions. Since everyone is different, all I can do is tell you what I am doing, and answer in very general terms.
    Personally, I have learned from experience that it is usually a mistake to sell when the markets are undergoing a rough period. As a long-term investor, I nearly always have seen that fund prices bounce back, usually sooner than one might expect. So, as long as you don't need your investment assets for a long while, sitting tight would seem to make the most sense. That's why I believe investors' stock market holdings should always have a future-looking time of reference of at least 3 to 5 years. If you can't honestly be committed to that, perhaps you shouldn't have money in the stock market at all.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://funds-newsletter.com/oct19-newsletter/OCT19.htm
    Ted Ted in Fund Discussions
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Climb After Jobs Report: Unemployment Rate Hits 50-Year Low
    If that (50 year record) unemployment figure is to be trusted, I graduated from college during the last year in which unemployment was this low (1969).
    Wonder how well folks are doing on income and quality of life compared to than? It’s likely impossible to compare. But in Michigan, the UAW workers were happy in ‘69. Those were great years. 2-worker families could make $60,000+ in one of the Detroit or Flint “shops” (with overtime) as the guys called them. Unfortunately, they were largely turning out trash that fell apart quickly - and allowed the foreign makers to gain ground here. On that $60,000+ many auto worker families could afford second homes in the northern part of the state and also own and drive a pretty mean set of wheels. So it goes.
    Re: Today’s markets - Miners had a good day - for a change. Outpaced the small bump up in gold. And energy finally had a decent up day. I’ll read all the above links later on today. Hopefully one covers the HK rioting which spilled over into Asian share prices overnight.
    *Corrected the number. It was about a decade later after some serious inflation, that a couple might earn $70,000 or more in the auto workplace.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD October
    Hi guys,
    Skeeter: You and John are making me nervous!! PCOXX I can't get at Fido. What else you got and what do you think about FCONX? Just saying......
    Ben: If I knew when to ring the bell, my ass would not be here. I'd be on my yacht cruising to my own island with my multi-million dollar mansion on it. LOL.....
    Hank! Hank! Hank!: Sold your real estate fund for a 25% gain this year. Really.....do you have a monthly newsletter that I can subscribe to? LOL. But the rest I agree with.....where will it end?
    sma3: Understood. I'm also cash heavy. 2% looks good now.
    Crash: It's been going on for years, i.e., gas mileage, say, from the 70's......the better you lie, the better chance you have to be President.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    Puddnhead Puddnhead in Fund Discussions
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD October
    "...The contrarian play is higher inflation. "
    Well, we've all been paying more to get less for some time, now. Easiest to see in the supermarket. That half-gallon of ice cream is not a half-gallon, anymore. Triscuits. A pound of hot dogs? Guess again. Package tells me I'm buying just 12 ounces of the stuff, last time I was in. Breakfast cereal. Cottage cheese. Soda pop. Thankfully, a pound IS still a pound when you order burger or a steak or fish or deli meats or cheeses. Some years ago I was at a deli counter in Calgary and suddenly realized I didn't know how many (effing) GRAMS I wanted of salami. I waited to hear what other customers did, first, before making my order. Cheese up there is downright exorbitant. My buddy looks for excuses to go buy food on the US side of the border. But my $134 co-pay inhaler costs $34 CAD, in Canada-land. We are all taking it in the shorts. Every single day.
    Crash Crash in Fund Discussions