This short article discusses changes Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTreck Research, thinks have taken place during the 21st century compared to the prior 50 years. He thinks these changes have increased what the stock market accepts to be reasonable valuations. Its interesting he includes a "DC Put" in his description of the crisis response tools the markets will expect to be utilized going forward.

A new model for assessing stocks may include higher valuations, as the old paradigm is no longer valid, according to a research note from DataTrek Research on Tuesday.
More aggressive Fed interventions will keep the stock market bottoms higher, and low interest rates and more innovation can boost the tops.

https://marketwatch.com/story/were-in-a-new-paradigm-for-stocks-this-analyst-argues-get-ready-for-permanently-higher-valuations-2020-05-19?mod=home-page

GMO has been wrong for 10 years already. I posted about them for years. Their forecast for US stocks were off significantly, they prefered EM stocks which lagged by a lot too.
I kept GMO forecast fro 2010, see the (link)
Since 2008-9 and massive intervention by the Fed all the following forecasts were wrong GMO, Bogle, Gundlach, Arnott(PAUIX), PE, PE10, inverted yield
Follow the charts and trends and dismiss all the forecasts.

Hi @MikeM,
PARHX is a good fund, no doubt, and for some it might be a better choice over what they are presently doing.
For me, it would be very costly for me to switch to any one fund such as PARHX. Being an investor since the age of 12 (now age 72+) I built my portfolio over the years (comprised of several accounts) and presently I have now built up huge gains through organic growth. If I were to sell out there would be a sizeable tax bill associated with this as well and some other negative factors (resulting from a bulk sell out) such as increased medicare premiums, so on and so forth.
In addition, owning just one fund does nothing to manage fund manager and strategy risk. Look what happened with one of the board's darlings ... IOFAX. Just ask yourself where would you be if you had gone all in with this one fund?
Moving on ... This is why the board is so great as we can exchange ideas and concepts. What might be right for one just might not be so right for another. And, by all means ... I'm not saying what I am doing is the absolute best.
With this, I wish you the very best with your investing endeavors and that you will come up with something that brings you the results you seek.
Old_Skeet

GMO has been saying EM will out preform for years.. Eventually by the roll of the dice they will be right I guess. I think they base a lot of their opinion on valuations. This outpreformance may eventually be is true but the only thing Brazil is out preforming on now is new Covid cases and deaths, for example. I think Covid will decimate EM.
GMO website has many very long and very thoughtfully argued position papers, including a number by Grantham that are valuable about climate change, but I have never mad any money following their advice.
Inker has just cut equities to 25% in GBMFX the global allocation fund he has run for decades.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gbmfx/analysis
Mere mortals can't get into this fund, although it is not clear why you would want to with it's middling record over the last few years. TIAA offered it for years in their retirement plans, but recently removed it probably because of nonperformance. My wife's account would have been better off in VWINX which has a ten year return of 105% vs GBMFX 38%
Every dog may have it's day....

You can get into Inker's GMO fund. WARCX Wells Fargo Absolute Return is a feeder fund into GBMFX. However the expense ratio is 2.28% and a 1% differed load. Its track record is not stellar.

Analysis at the end, after the performance.

Performance......One month...YTD as of 5/29/2020
Multi
PDIIX…3.1....-2.35
PUCZX…3.8…-3.7
JMUTX....4.0....-5.1
TSIIX.....3.1….-0.1
PTIAX….1.9….-0.2
Multi(high % securitized)
PIMIX.....2.3….-3.4
EIXIX…..3.1….-0.4
VCFAX...2.8....-10.8
IOFIX.....6.3....-26.3
HY Munis
PHMIX…..3.4.....-3.1
NHMAX....4.6.....-7.3
OPTAX.....3.2.....0.15.
ORNAX….3.9…-5.25
BSNIX....2.8....3.4
GWMEX….5.0…..-3.1 (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
NVHAX…1.5…-6.2 (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
SAMFX.......0.7.....8.0
BCOIX......1.3…...4.4
SCCIX.....1.3....11.2
ANBEX……1.6....12..9
BND….......0.7…...5.7
Bank Loans/Floating rate
EIFAX.......4.3.....-8.2
Uncontrain/Nontrad
IISIX..........3.0....-6.3
PMZIX......1.5….-0.1
JSIAX……1.5….-0.3
HY +EM
HYG.........2.95.....-4.5
PHIYX.......4.0.....-4.1
FNMIX……7.5……-6.4
Corporate
PIGIX….…1.7.….0.1
VCIT……..2.7…..3.5
Preferred
PFINX…...2.7……-6.0
OTHER
FXAIX.…..3.8..…-5.0 (SP500)
PCI………7.0... -23.7 (CEF)
Observations:
Last month was another rebound month. Several bond funds made as much money as stocks.
Multi- did great. TSIIX(multi) + EIXIX(Multi securitized continues to show the best risk/reward. JMUTX shows good momo. IOFIX shows the best momo but I can’t forget its meltdown
HY Munis had a great rebound in May. BSNIX had the best risk/reward. GWMEX had the best momo.
Inter term – did well. If you doubt about finding better funds then look at ANBEX.
Bank loans – Good rebound but still big losses YTD
Uncontrain/Nontrad-PMZIX with great risk/reward but if you want to make money look at IISIX,JSIAX.
HY+EM – Good rebound in May.
Corp – In a tough market VCIT beat PIGIX.
SP500-Just -5% for YTD. The price crossed the 200 moving average, that means to start buying if you were out.
PCI-CEF got crushed more than stocks YTD and are still behind. If markets stabilize they will make more money than stocks.
===========================
My own portfolio
As expected from a trader I go where I see momentum but still look at risk/reward. The market looks better than before and why I start taking more risks.
Early in the month, I had 3 holdings but mostly in ANBEX(core plus)+BSNIX(HY Munis) but I switched to GWMEX(HY Munis)+TSIIX(Multi) + EIXIX. I have over 50% in GWMEX, a smaller position in TSIIX, and a much smaller in EIXIX.
Stats: My portfolio made over 8% YTD.
For 3 years I made over 9% average annually with SD lower than 2 (remember, my goals were 6+% and SD lower than 3). My portfolio never lost more than 1% from any last top. So, when they tell you that bonds (I also trade stocks,CEFs) are boring with no future I keep chuckling and the unbelievers will continue to dismiss the numbers.
FUND...3 YR...SD
SPY.....10.15...16.9
VBINX...8......10.7
VWIAX...6.4...6.9
Mine.....9+....under 2
It looks better after the rebound but at the end of March(see below), it was so much worse. See PV(link)
FUND...3 YR...SD
SPY.....5......14.9
VBINX...4.45....9.3
VWIAX...4.17...6
Mine.....not far from the above
The above is not a recommendation, you must do your own due diligence. My holdings can change at any time :-)

Don't know @bee. I'm not defending what Inker is saying has value. Just copy pasted Inker's response to why they have been recommending EM as where to be for the last 3 years. I never know if those without a subscription to Barron's can read these articles.
Actually I thought the interviewer called out GMO pretty well on there wrong (to date) predictions.

Personally, I enjoy reading articles like the one under discussion for the added insights into the workings of funds it conveys. So, I never view any particular fund approach being depicted by an author as “good”, “bad”, applicable or non-applicable to me. I just enjoy the extra depth of knowledge conveyed. In “Investing 101” some decades ago I learned that a “bond fund” is not a “bond.” They’re very different animals and behave differently. Pretty simple stuff. I assume most here who own bond funds understand that distinction.
What has changed is that 25 years ago prevailing rates were much higher. The manager had “wiggle room” to play the rate curve and grab off a decent return for his investors without taking great risk. But with rates as low as they are, managers are in a real bind and the risks of substantial loss (even on investment grade paper) are much higher today; while the potential return is paltry. That doesn’t even begin to address the complex rating issues for lower rated bonds. Nor does it address the substantial changes in trading habits that have evolved since the day when one called in his fund exchanges over the telephone (the corded variety).

@bee, Depending on which phase the investors are in, retirees may have have 5.5 years timeframe to recover. The recent 30% drawdown would require 47% return just to reach the break-even point.
Assuming the retirees chose a more conservative allocation, say 50/50 as they approach the retirement date, the drawdown of their portfolio would near 15% and that is more manageable. Challenge today is finding bond funds with yields north of 2% without incurring higher risk including junk and EM bonds. Even the investment grade bonds went down to 8% during the sell off in early March as investors fled to cash. The market has recovered some in recent weeks but now the trade war with China just flare up again.

@catch22: I don't recall seeing any daily/weekly trade(s) conformation here as to what is stated by @FD1000 for his account(s) returns.
You don't have to believe anything I say. The chance I will post all/any of my trades are slim. The following are several points from the past.
1) I retired after 23 years after starting investing 1995-2018. It's all from savings and investing. Never got any help, stock options, or inheritance in the past or in the future.
2) In the last 3 years, my portfolio performance was above 9% average annually with SD < 2 (it's 1.91). I never lost more than 1% from any last top. My goal was to make 6+% with SD<3 which means I easily passed it.
3) My portfolio now is about 33 times our yearly expenses and we still don't take out SS.
If you think the above is a dream then I'm OK with it

A T. Rowe Price Read:
An Overview of Market Resilience

On average, each of the 11 recessions since the end of World War II has lasted almost 22 months, and market recovery times have ranged from two months to a little over five-and-a-half years

Charts of previous Recessions:
https://screencast.com/t/nMBImzT5lAvV
Article:
Market_Resilience

The interviewer asked the question about their EM predictions. This was the question and response from the article:

You’ve recommended emerging market stocks since 2017. That hasn’t panned out. Why do you still like them?
The average emerging stock is trading at half the valuation of the average U.S. large-cap stock. We’ve seen in emerging the same thing we’ve seen in the developed world: A relatively small handful of growth stocks have outperformed the indexes hugely, and half of the universe or more has been left behind. As a result, you can put together a portfolio of decent companies trading at about one times book value and seven times trailing earnings, with a trailing dividend yield of over 6%. That’s pricing in a really bad outcome, which is comforting. If you think earnings are merely going to be stable, you have an earnings yield of 14%. You don’t need to imagine good things happening to get good returns out of companies trading at those valuations.

Another pointed question on their accuracy around the US stock market:

Does that cause you to wonder if you should tweak your model to take secular changes into account?
Over the course of those 20 years, we have done a lot of digging into our assumptions, to understand where things have played out differently than we expected. One of the striking [observations]: Profitability around most of the world has been stable. Profitability for U.S. small- and mid-cap stocks has been stable. The one place that was absolutely not the case is U.S. large- caps, which have seen profitability, and their apparent return on capital, move up in a way that is fairly unique.

GMO has been saying EM will out preform for years.. Eventually by the roll of the dice they will be right I guess. I think they base a lot of their opinion on valuations. This outpreformance may eventually be is true but the only thing Brazil is out preforming on now is new Covid cases and deaths, for example. I think Covid will decimate EM.
GMO website has many very long and very thoughtfully argued position papers, including a number by Grantham that are valuable about climate change, but I have never mad any money following their advice.
Inker has just cut equities to 25% in GBMFX the global allocation fund he has run for decades.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gbmfx/analysis
Mere mortals can't get into this fund, although it is not clear why you would want to with it's middling record over the last few years. TIAA offered it for years in their retirement plans, but recently removed it probably because of nonperformance. My wife's account would have been better off in VWINX which has a ten year return of 105% vs GBMFX 38%
Every dog may have it's day....

twas just kidding about FD and my moolah, and forget about him posting his trades, etc. i do take him at his word, however, as regards his returns.
meanwhile, ben f is an ancestor of mine ... and i've got the massive forehead to prove it, if not the brains behind it.

Thanks @linter,
I’ve no reason to doubt FD1000’s word either. Everything posted here - including by me - should be taken within the context, as I think @Catch22 intended, of being non-verifiable assertion. It also needs to be considered within the context of the poster’s age and circumstance. For younger investors, a couple 10% “down years” followed by a couple 25-30% “up years” ain’t too bad. For others that might be too much volatility.
I’ve resolved in the past to reveal as little as possible here of the investments I own, recognizing that such information / comment is largely non-verifiable and possibly non-applicable to others. Like Franklin, I sometimes find resolutions difficult to keep.
-
@WABC - You just made my day with your above Franklin link. :) Here it is again for benefit of others: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/98062-in-all-your-amours-you-should-prefer-old-women-to / It begins, “In all your Amours you should prefer old Women to young ones ... “
Such despicable thoughts. So eloquently stated. Now, me wonders if it might have been intended as satire; while being fully aware that in life Franklin bore a rather raucous reputation, reputedly fathering several children out of wedlock.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/randywarren/2020/05/27/todays-interest-rate-environmenta-challenge-for-investors-and-their-fixed-income-allocation/#479fbfa6caf9
Today’s Interest Rate Environment - A Challenge For Investors And Their Fixed Income Allocation
The Role of Bonds in a Portfolio while Interest Rates are Low
/Today’s interest rate environment poses a challenge for investors and their fixed income allocation. In the US and around the world government bond yields are at extremely low levels, at the time of writing this report, the US Treasury 10 year is at .70% and some other countries’ yields are zero or negative. Over the years investors have looked to bonds for income, capital preservation and a hedge against inflation. Investors have enjoyed a bull market in fixed income securities/bonds over the last 40 years!/
Have not sold bonds and bonds etf in our other vsnguard portfolio, we did not see a large drop compared to DOWS Or SPY, but of course now its still going up slowly not like our merrilledge portfolio all stocks...at least we sleep better at night....
Another interesting read gives good ideas but from oversea INDIA
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/351139

I would never invest in a fund that I can't sell everything at any day.
Pimco https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/interval/flexible-credit-income-fund/inst performance isn't impressive at all at 0.37% annually for 3 years.

Do you folks think this is a new fierce-bull market rally or just a W recovery in hiding, will DOWS JONES reach 15k by end of summer, or 26.3k???

I know exactly what will happen. The Dow will reach 26123 next week. Then, it will go to 24652 a week later. Then 22521 and finally 27365.
Wait, it was a dream
I sold before the crash, then made some successful trades in stock ETF + CEFs, back to be fully invested in bond OEFs after about 5 weeks, and continue to make money.
I write my portfolio results every week and so far in 2020 I was up every week except one where I lost -0.2%. Life is good. In the last 3 years, I never lost more than 1% from any last top.

Really nonsense article. When markets are extreme + high volatility then the volume is up...duh. See 5 years (chart).

Those are not global allocation funds, but instead standard global growth funds.

I’m tempted to say, “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose ... “
Kidding aside, Ol’Skeet inadvertently reversed a couple key words in the title which do impact meaning (or at least emphasis) here.
- Ol’Skeet’s title: “Trending ... Top Three Global Allocation Funds”
- What the author had: “Trending ... Three Top Global Allocation Funds”
In the first case, Ol’Skeet’s title suggests that these three funds are “the top“ (best) funds in their class.
In the second case, the author intended to say only that these were “three among the best” in their class.
I also agree with @hmgodwin in that these three funds sound too aggressive to conform with my understanding of what a global allocation fund is. Here’s the dead giveaway from the article: “Global allocation funds tend to be highly volatile and are suited for aggressive investors.” That sentence makes one wonder just what assets the fund is allocating among?
The global allocation genre evolved long after I cut my teeth on investing. When I started out 50+ years ago the choices were pretty much: domestic equity, global equity, balanced. Pretty plain and simple. So my understanding of what a global allocation fund invests in is limited to some familiarity with RPGAX. That one is: 60% U.S. / international equity; 30% U.S. / international bond; and 10% in an out-of-house hedge fund. Likely, there are other variations elsewhere.

Just received an email about the fund closing:
May 27, 2020
Dear Fellow Investors,
We are announcing today that the Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund (GISYX/GISOX) will close to new investors through intermediary platforms after June 10, 2020. The Fund will remain open to existing investors. Retirement plans and financial advisors with existing clients in the Fund will still be able to invest in the Fund for existing as well as new clients as long as their clearing platform will allow this exception. The Fund will remain open to new investors who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
The International Stalwarts Fund recently reached $1 billion under management, and the investment strategy in total is now roughly $2 billion. As you know, we carefully review capacity at the firm level and strategy level. We are committed to keeping all of our investment strategies small enough to be able to fully pursue their investment strategies without being encumbered by either their individual asset base or the firms’ collective asset base. Achieving performance for our clients will always be our paramount objective.
The International and Global Stalwarts Funds will reach their five-year anniversary this September. When we launched the Stalwarts Funds, we talked about capacity across the Stalwarts line being in the $5-7 billion range given the Stalwarts’ focus on more liquid SMid-cap (Small- and Mid-cap) companies. We also hoped that the Stalwarts Funds would therefore be able to stay open to clients longer than many of our small/micro-cap funds. We are moving the International Stalwarts strategy to soft closed to protect existing investors’ continued access to the Fund.
We have been very encouraged by the performance of the Stalwarts Funds and the value they have added to our collaborative research process over the last 4½ years (click here for Fund performance). We are excited to have recently added the US Stalwarts Fund to the Stalwarts line. The Global Stalwarts and US Stalwarts funds both remain open to new and existing shareholders. Part of the decision to close the International Stalwarts Fund is to preserve space for future assets in the Global Stalwarts strategy. Managing “sister” funds like the three Stalwarts Funds allows us to provide investment opportunities to a diverse breadth of investors.
Thank you for your continued interest and trust. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me or a member of our Client Relations Team.

I think a second significant peak is inevitable and this equity bounce will crash. The behavior of people last weekend is clear evidence that most covididiots will get infected and soon. There are already rising case and hospitalization rates in many states, mostly in the south and midwest where people seem deluded by Drump.
If Missouri is lucky and escaped the massive infections NYC suffered because they did not commute by subway, the people in Lake of the Ozarks just took a long NYC subway ride without protection. What do they think will happen? A church in Germany just had dozens of cases despite social distancing.
AS the second wave hits, it will be at least a year and probably two before people are comfortable going back out in force, and consequently at least two and maybe longer before our consumer driven economy is back to where it was in 2019, and I suspect at least 20% of those businesses will not return.
If we had massive testing and aggressive robust contact tracing we might cut isolated outbreaks off quickly but when many governors and a large number of people do not believe this is real I don't see this happening. The politicians in Georgia Florida and Texas are already trying to cover up the true case numbers and death rates
Consequently, I would not have any money in stocks that you need for the next five years. There will be buying opportunities along the way.
My cash allocation is 50% conservative bond funds 30% and equity 20% I am buying small positions in what seem to be safe dividend equities with some long shots in energy.