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and,The deflationary thesis holds more weight for three primary reasons.
Weakening rates of population growth and excessive levels of unproductive debt are two long-term structural forces that have been working to undermine the rate of economic growth, widen the output gap, create excess capacity, and exert a general disinflationary force on the economy. Both of these forces will persist.
Recessions exacerbate excess capacity. The current recession is one of the worst economic crises the country has ever faced. The rate of inflation nearly always declines during recessions and typically does not trough for years after the conclusion of the recession and the eventual reduction in excess capacity. A severe recession usually knocks several hundred basis points off the rate of core inflation, placing current measures firmly below the zero bound. The strength of the recovery will determine how persistent the deflation will be.
While the Federal Reserve has engaged in a rapid expansion of its balance sheet and the monetary base, both the money multiplier and the velocity of money will work against the increase in money growth. Velocity tends to decline as debt levels rise. There's no reason to believe the velocity of money will rise significantly. In fact, most evidence points toward a very aggressive collapse in the velocity of money, a force that will continue to negate monetary policy actions as it has for the last several decades.
Difference Between Monetary Base and Money Supply:...various measures of inflation expectations reveal that the bond market is currently expecting deflation for at least the next three years and rates of inflation below 1.5% for more than 10 years.
High Level of Unproductive Debt:Often we conflate Federal Reserve "money printing" with an equal and consistent increase in the money supply. This is not the case.
When the Federal Reserve buys an asset from the private sector, the Federal Reserve increases excess reserves, which represents an increase in the monetary base, not the money supply.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/4/23/48075864-15876672613202152_origin.png
Unemployment Factors:High levels of debt are often misunderstood. Commonly, we hear that debt levels are getting too high and that inflation will ensue. The data actually proves that higher levels of debt, particularly unproductive debt that does not generate an income stream, leads to deflation, not inflation.
On Assets to Hold:In the prior two recessions, it took 47 months and 75 months, respectively, to regain the number of jobs that were lost. In this recession, the number of job losses will erase upwards of 20 million paychecks based on preliminary data from the report of the initial claims.
Gold can perform well during periods of inflation or periods of deflation. The direction of real rates tends to be a more critical factor. As such, my analysis suggests a combination of Treasury bonds, gold, and higher than normal levels of cash is the best way to move forward in the current environment.
politician? not really. As retiree that wants to make more without the volatility the numbers show it. If you don't understand how and what you do like most then just invest like most. Buy and Hold stocks and high rated bonds for ballast.It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
[and later ...]
Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words.Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
"Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
Calling all current economic forecasts “highly uncertain,” Powell mapped out why he believes the economy may go through a series of peaks and troughs for at least a year or more as the world battles to keep the virus under control.
“This is such an extraordinary, extraordinary shock, unlike anything certainly that’s happened in my lifetime ... we’re still putting out the fire, we’re still trying to win, and I think we’ll be at that for a while,” he said.
The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
[and later ...]
Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
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