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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Find a good Site to observe 2008 fund results
    The legacy pages of M* still let you do that.
    Here's the link for the performance page of VFIAX. In Enter Tickers box of the Compare section, you can enter the tickers of the funds or ETFs that you want to compare. While the graph only goes back ten years, the table of returns ("Trailing Total Returns") has exactly the columns you asked for: annualized returns over 1,3,5,10, and 15 years.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VFIAX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Find a good Site to observe 2008 fund results
    Is there a site that you can compare 5 funds or etfs 1,3,5, 10, and going out to 15 years annualized returns?
  • The 2009 Effect
    By the way - what is a full market cycle?
    Good question. I’ve seen different definitions and I don’t believe any of them. Hussman claims he understands and that he’s investing based on a full market cycle - and look what’s happened to him. I’d say it’s not something you can measure in years, but rather by major trends and turning points (whatever they are).
    If you want to look at years however, take a look at this performance chart for DODBX. It doesn’t go all the way back to the fund’s birth sometime in the 1920s. But it does give performance for every year beginning in 1961 - which happens to be the year I entered high school. So - I’d assume there’s a complete market cycle in there somewhere.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DODBX/performance?p=DODBX
    Added: I looked at Investopedia expecting to find the simple (and inadequate) standard definition of a market cycle as: the period during which an equity market travels from “peak” to “trough” and back to a new “peak” again. To their credit, they indicate (as I suggested) that identifying a market cycle is far more complex and difficult. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/market_cycles.asp
    -
    @hank- Sounds like a great project for you on a snowy day up in your cabin...:)
    @Old_Joe - Thanks for the suggestion. I was already hard at work compiling all that stuff when BECKMANB posted his great response in the “Find a Good Site to Observe 2008 Fund Results” thread (above) tonight.
    Kinda took the fun out of the evening. But I owe you one none the less. :)
  • Find a good Site to observe 2008 fund results
    Bring up finance.yahoo.com.
    Type in the Ticker at top of the page.
    Hit Performance.
    Will list the Annual Total Returns (%) History for all the funds/ETFS years in operation.
  • Find a good Site to observe 2008 fund results
    Morningstar stopped reporting at 2009. Too bad! 2008 was the scary year. I lke to know what the fund or ETF did in 2008 and other down years.
    Any ideas?
    prinx
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    MikeM,
    So, is China nothing....but just like 15 years ago? Would you say cars from 15 years ago are the same today? Move on, bro. You're behind. If it's not all that, then why is our government so worried?
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    ...I am looking to Asia/China. It's where the future is...
    Hmm, very reminiscent of what I heard 15+ years ago on this board. And my reply then, not in our life time.
  • The 2009 Effect
    My wife and I opened Roth IRAs at the end of 1998, at Fidelity. At that time. we only invested in mutual funds. We figured on a long time frame so I wasn't worried about volatility. I told her "here are the two best Fidelity funds -- Select Electronics and Select Home Finance. Which do you want."
    She said "I want the very best one."
    So we put her $2000 in FSELX. (2K was the max annual Roth IRA contribution back then.) Two years later we put another $4000 in FSELX.
    Now it's worth $30,330. Fidelity calculates the total gain at 405%.
    That's certainly been helped by 60% this year.
    Meanwhile, I put my $2000 in Home Finance, which went in the tank in 2008.
    So that's been dumped.
    But I did buy a bunch of FSELX in my Fidelity 403b a few years ago (now my Rollover IRA).
    It tilts our portfolio to "aggressive", for sure. We balance it with some dividend-paying stocks and S&P 500 funds and ETFs.
    I feel more lucky than smart about it all.
    David
  • Why You Shouldn’t Believe Those G.D.P. Numbers
    A NY Times opinion piece by David Leonhardt
    "Americans are dissatisfied, and have been for years, largely because the economy as most people experience it has not been booming. G.D.P. — or gross domestic product, the economy’s total output — keeps on rising, but it no longer tracks the well-being of most Americans. Instead, an outsize share of economic growth flows to the wealthy. And yet G.D.P. is treated as a totemic measure of the country’s prosperity."
    "A team of Commerce Department economists has been working on a new version of G.D.P., one that will show how much of the economy’s bounty is flowing to different income groups. The headline number would still exist, but the new data, known as “distributional accounts,” would make clear who was and wasn’t benefiting. The department expects to publish a prototype statistic next year."
    ARTICLE
  • Emerging markets land top of managers‘ portfolios with rising rates
    Yeah - a confusing article. It says “Posted by SDD Contributor December 15, 2019” above the article. Than, within the article, it reverts to the original March (first publication) date. Stuff happens. I’d give John a pass on that one.
    Well now ... Higher rates have been prophesied for at least 6 or 7 years now. I suspect the reasons it hasn’t happened are complicated and might even blow over into politics - Heaven forbid.
    Rates fell (unexpectedly) for much of this year, but have reversed fairly sharply (upward) the past 6 weeks or so. The 10-year Treasury’s above 1.8%. Not sure what the 2-year’s at. But I’d guess money market funds will be soon creeping towards 2%.*
    While rates have risen, there’s a lot of speculation the Dollar is going to weaken against other currencies. Trump has said recently he wants it to, and gold seems to be indicating that’s in the works as well. Central banks are loading up on gold. Rumors abound that the Fed is soon going to start purchasing longer dated bonds to try to hold rates down and spur growth (around year’s end.)
    EM? In a wreaking dollar situation EM currencies would be attractive. If my time horizon was a bit longer I’d be holding some. As far as EM equities - that’s anybody’s guess. there’s a lot more parts in motion to consider.
    * FYI - Here’s some current rates as posted on Bloomberg around noon 12/16:
    2 YR Treasury. 1.64%
    5 YR Treasury. 1.72%
    10 YR - 1.89%
    30 YR - 2.31
    Vanguard’s Prime mm fund was yielding around 1.7% as of Friday.
  • The 2009 Effect
    Average 2018 and 2019 together and the growth is not so dramatic as I see it. All in all the longer the time period the better picture of performance. By the way - what is a full market cycle? How does it relate to both buggy whips and home computers? I have had some funds for over 40 years. Will the full market cycle end when I sell them? I think what you are calling a market cycle I am calling a time period.
  • BUY.....SELL......PONDER December 2019
    Hi guys,
    Did some buying this week: BTBFX, BTMFX, FNSTX, YAFFX, PGTAX and added a new position FEMKX......my thinking is we go higher.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    Interesting Pudd. You've mentioned PGTAX before and I'm curious to know if you've ever looked at Janus Henderson Global Tech. I have JAGTX and will add to it this week after the distributions have been paid. PGTAX has a load and a higher ER than many tech funds and I was wondering why you prefer it. Several are closed to new retail, of course.
    FWIW I also think the US market will go higher in the next 2-3 years and probably for the entire 2020s. Much, much higher. We will look back and be amazed.
  • Emerging markets land top of managers‘ portfolios with rising rates
    @MikeM ...hi sir maybe in 9 months feds may raise rate again, dows may reach 29k
    when we find out 4q 2018 was indeed a large correct ion/ small recession stock pulled back -15%
    n focus - Economics
    How Q4 ranks among the worst 20 quarters of the past half century
    -gobal stocks have suffered their worst quarter since 2011. We look at how it compared with the 20 worst quarters over the last 48 years and the potential silver lining for investors today._
    https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/how-q4-ranks-among-the-worst-20-quarters-of-the-past-half-century/
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    Hi @Hank, in contrast to what you found on over-capacity for self storage REITs, I have a friend at work that she and her husband have been building self storage units as a side business and they can't keep up with demand. They have the units rented even before they are built. They got into the business maybe 10 years ago with another person but have since bought him out. She wishes they could afford to expand but they don't want to take on to much debt. I guess multiple units can cost $100's of thousands to build.
    In any case, what was interesting to hear was that many of their clients are small business owners, construction, trades, sales people who work from their homes but need a place to store material.
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    If you open and read this, there is an image of the guy that wrote this blog and he looks like he may have been about 15 years old when REITS crashed in 2007-2009, so I don't think he understands the pain REIT investors felt at that time. I don't know how he can make this summary statement below. If I look at the Vanguard ETF for REITS, VNQ, it lost 70%+ peak to trough during the great recession. Would that be considered a bond alternative with less risk for retirees?
    REITs are a viable alternative to retirees and other income investors who desire greater income without having to take significantly more risk.
    The above and other posts by MikeM are what I have been saying for years. If I want higher income I use funds like Multisector funds such as IOFIX and PIMIX. If you are looking for high income + a good total return, look no further than PCI,PDI and other Pimco CEFs.
    My opinion is that PCI will have a better performance than stocks in the next 5 years and if you are a trader you can avoid the big losses too by using weekly MACD as a good indicator. See PCI (chart) and use it to buy PCI when weekly MACD is positive and sell when it's negative
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    Great find @Mark,
    As folks in these (REIT) funds know, self-storage is often an important component (normally around 10-20% of holdings). The article you linked notes fierce competition, oversupply and cooling of demand in the self-storage market.
    “In addition to our report on the homebuilding sector, we also published Self-Storage REITs: Storage Wars Wage On. Once a perennial top-performer in the REIT sector, developers and new operators have flocked to the sector in recent years, adding new supply at a furious rate, weakening fundamentals. 2019 was shaping up to be a strong year for the sputtering self-storage REIT sector, but 3Q19 earnings were a setback on the road to recovery. Competition remains fierce in an oversupplied market. Symptomatic of the ongoing storage wars, marketing spending jumped nearly 60% from last year for these REITs, pressuring same-store NOI growth to essentially zero.”
    Got me to wondering if there’s some linkage (albeit a bit stretched) between this and the boomers now being 70+ and possibly ridding themselves of various RV vehicles? Personally, I rid myself of a boat recently after 40+ years of boat ownership and no longer rent a self storage unit for it. I’d imagine other types of RV owners also used these convenient storage options.
    Here’s an article documenting a slowdown in RV sales:
    The RV industry is slowing down after 10 years of growth https://www.curbed.com/2019/6/17/18682121/rv-campers-industry-economy-economic-impact-jobs-2018
    The oldest post WW II boomers are now nearing 75. That generation (to which I and many here belong) has had profound impacts on virtually every economic sector over most of the last century including: education, auto and home sales, RV sales, stock and bond markets, brokerages, health care, insurance. The list goes on ...
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    @Old_Skeet ,
    Thanks. That sounds like a perfectly sane and rational system. (I probably could have written that response for you. :))
    A plan, such as you and I both adhere to, serves many purposes. Two of the most important IMHO are: (1) It instills self-discipline & structure upon what might otherwise devolve into a haphazard approach, (2) It provides a clear and easy to interpret picture of how one’s investments are structured and how well different components are performing. The second is useful in deciding how much can be safely withdrawn yearly, as well as when / how to rebalance.
    Being a rather disorganized person, I’d be completely lost without a clearly written plan. The allocation model I’ve used for 20 years (with updating for age) must be a pretty good one - because anytime I’ve considered drastically altering it I’ve been drawn back to the existing plan. While many markets, IMHO, have appeared “dicey” to me for years now, I’d hate to have had everything sitting in “safe” money market instruments pulling 1-3% yearly over the past decade.
    Regards
    OH - The thread is about REITS. I’ve dabbled in the past in a REIT fund as one of the holdings in my “real assets” group (10% weighting). I’d prefer to buy them at depressed prices, as this asset has been through 2 or 3 nasty downtrends over the past 25 years that I’ve closely watched markets. But if you’re young and don’t mind the potential volatility they may be fine. Personally, I’ve vacated my small hold in one and moved on to some more depressed sectors.
  • Retirement: Why REITs Are Good Bond Replacements
    Hi @Derf: Years back my family sold off farm land (piecemeal) and went from harvesting cash crops from the soil to havesting cash dividends from the stock market. Currently, the only property I own is my homestead and a scond home located on the coast of South Carolina. In a sense, I'm still farming but the harvest now comes from the capial markets.
  • The 2009 Effect
    @Simon makes an excellent point about how single years can skew figures. Regarding 2009, it would likely be more informative to include both 2008 and 2009 or neither. Volatile funds tended to crash harder in 2008 and surge higher in 2009 than other funds. These effects may have somewhat balanced themselves out.
    Another year to watch out for with respect to this fund is 2019. YTD it is beating its category by 25%, even more than the 23% by which it bested its category in 2009. And because 2019 is the current year, this one year of superb performance skews not only the 10 year performance figure, but the five, three, and one year figures as well.
    The growth of $10K to $101,253 (a total return of $91,253) is not the growth over 10 years, but the growth over nearly 11 years. Don't let M*'s new pages confuse you into thinking that they're presenting standardized figures.
    The growth over the past ten years is shown on this M* chart. $10K grew to $58,483. This chart shows that FSELX left its peers in the dust, even excluding all but 18 days (and fewer trading days) of 2009.
    The "new" M* performance page reports a 19.32% annualized 10 year rate of return as of Dec 13. That means that $10K grew to $10K x (1+ 19.32%) ^ 10 = $58,497. Give or take rounding, that's the same result as shown in the 10 year chart.
    Here's the chart for the fund for the two years 2008 and 2009. It shows that FSELX crashed and burned relative to its peers, let alone the S&P 500, but it also recovered faster and higher than its peers and the S&P 500. All curves are U shaped, with this fund looking rather impressive, at least for those with strong stomachs.
  • The 2009 Effect
    Going....going....almost gone.
    On the main "Quote" page of every fund covered by Morningstar is a chart showing the growth of $10,000 over the last 10 years (for funds that are 10 years or older). In 18 days the return figure for 2009 will disappear. For many funds, especially in the technology and growth sectors, this will make an enormous difference to their headline 10 year total return.
    For example, FSELX returned an astonishing 85% in 2009. Yet in the decade since it has frequently lagged its category. Its standout performance in 2009 clearly contributed massively to its 10 year total return of almost $102,000.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fselx/quote
    Personally, I'll be glad to see the figures for 2009 disappear. They have distorted the performance of many, if not most, mutual funds and ETFs. Hopefully, a more accurate picture will emerge from 2020 onward.
    Wishing everyone here a very happy holiday season.