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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Worse Value Stocks Perform, The More Rob Arnott Likes Them
    I owned, years back, two Pimco funds (PASAX & PAUAX) that Rob Arnott was the advisor. At first they performed well and then went into a period of time where they moved sideways and the began to lose. After holding for a few years when I reached a breakeven point in their decline (might have had some small losses) I cashed out and sold them both.
  • The Worse Value Stocks Perform, The More Rob Arnott Likes Them
    FYI: Value stocks have been frustrating fans for a decade, testing their patience with year after year of subpar returns. But Rob Arnott says now is exactly the wrong time to bail on them.
    In research published Wednesday, the Research Affiliates co-founder reiterates the case against quitting before the miracle. The 13-page paper, “Standing Alone Against the Crowd: Abandon Value? Now?!?” examines how the cheap-stock strategy has behaved over time, particularly after periods following severe underperformance. Arnott has stood by the strategy through years of struggle, and isn’t changing his stance now.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/2019-11-20/the-worse-value-stocks-perform-the-more-rob-arnott-likes-them?srnd=markets-vp
    Research Affiliates Research Paper:
    https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/766-standing-alone-against-the-crowd.html
  • Big Stocks Give S&P 500 An Edge: SPY vs. RSP
    FYI: Bigger is better in the stock market—for now.
    Shares of Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. , Facebook Inc. and other large market-cap stocks have risen significantly this year, as investors show clear signs of continuing to favor the stock market’s biggest cohorts.
    All three stocks are up at least 52% this year, contributing heavily to the S&P 500’s nearly 25% gain since the end of December. The broad stock-market index weights its constituents by market cap, giving the biggest companies in the index more influence than smaller ones. It is outpacing for a third consecutive year its equal-weighted counterpart that avoids playing favorites based on size.
    The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index is up 23% in 2019. It puts the same emphasis on clothing retailer Gap Inc., which is worth $6.2 billion, as Apple, which is valued at $1.2 trillion, a factor that helps investors avoid the pain caused by sharp swings in individual stocks, money managers have said.
    But that also means investors in funds that track equal-weight indexes missed out on some of the rewards from large-cap tech and communications shares’ strong run in recent years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-stocks-give-s-p-500-an-edge-11574185528
    Last 12 Mo:
    SPY 18.27%
    RSP 14.95%
    3 Years:
    SPY 51.31%
    RSP 39.32%
    5 Years:
    SPY 67.33%
    RSP 53.90%
    Source Bespoke:
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    @msf,
    I find the study re annuities you linked of interest based on a quick read of findings / conclusions. Let’s set aside the issues of comparative advantage and individual circumstance / suitability. Those are highly individual and not too hard to sort out.
    Where I get confused is the tax implications. Converting a Roth IRA to an annuity would seem a “non-starter” since you’d be surrendering the significant tax advantages a Roth offers and continues to offer over a lifetime. Perhaps the trade-off with a pre-tax IRA is more favorable? Is it relatively easy to continue that tax deferral until payouts are disbursed or would taxes need to be paid up front on the total sum withdrawn from the IRA (and used to purchase the annuity)?
    Seems to me there was a temporary “window” in the tax code a few years ago allowing something like that. But suspect that today it probably isn’t available.
  • Jeez Sequoia
    I actually own Sequoia in my Roth Account. I bought into it when the fund reopened after so many years being closed.
    I too own stocks as well as mutual funds. Each has its own place in my portfolio.
  • Social Security ‘Bridge’
    I gather you've been watching the esurance commercials ("Let's be honest. Nobody likes dealing with insurance.") :-) See video below.
    That aside, IMHO people focus too much on cost as opposed to value received, but only from some products and services. Do people complain about how little Apple products cost to manufacture compared with the price they're paying? To keep it in the financial industry, does it bother you that banks pay you so much less in interest than they make by lending your money out? Or do you just shop for higher APYs?
    Rational life cycle consumers with no interest in leaving a bequest would always choose to annuitize 100 percent of their wealth. After all, they face a choice between a traditional investment with a market return and an annuity with a market return plus a mortality credit.
    You appear to be saying that because the insurance company is skimming some unknown ("true cost") amount, you're getting less than "a market return" with the annuity. Fair enough, but because of mortality credits, one still comes out better than making "a traditional investment with a market return." The paper uses the net value of immediate annuities, so its results do incorporate their underlying costs.
    Health insurance companies are required to spend at least 80% (85% in the case of large employer plans) on actual health care (Medical Loss Ratio). The amount they are allowed to spend on administrative costs and profits combined is limited to 20%. These figures are already audited, and I've received checks back from my insurer because it spent less than 80% for a couple of years.
  • Hot Semiconductor Stocks Power Biggest YTD Gains In The Chip Sector: (SPGP)
    The article is about individual stocks and ETFs, but there is a mutual fund in this space: Fidelity Select Semiconductors (FSELX)
    It's my largest holding (held in my IRA) and I'm smiling right now -- total return: up 55% YTD, up 19.55%/year for ten years.
    We also put FLSEX in my wife's Roth IRA when she first opened it years ago.
    It's volatile though.
    David
  • SICAV?
    Anybody know about this one? I dug SICAV up while searching the web to see if TRP might have added a precious metals fund in recent years. The linked commentary describes SICAV as a “Global Natural Resources Equity Fund.” However Lipper can’t seem to find it and M* seemed to think it was a Russian fund. I’m thinking maybe it’s only offered in some foreign countries?
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/is/en/funds/sicav/global-natural-resources-equity-fund.html
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @hank,
    Replace the dog with a cat and you've got it! Our family cat awakes me around 3:00 am each morning and will nag me until I get up. He got in the habit of doing this because years back I'd get up around 3:00 am each morning to check the foreign markets before leaving for work. Generally, I was in bed around 8:00 pm. He's still with the old routine.
    Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi @Puddnhead,
    In answering your question(s). I got up early this morning to read the proof edition of the Observer. Just kidding. I'm diabetic and I was up for my early morning snack which I do most mornings around 3:00 am.
    As for VWINX ... There are many good income allocation funds. I can not own them all plus if I were to own VWINX I'd have to hold it in a wrap account, with my broker, since it is a no load fund. To keep things simple and still receive a consodilated IRS 1099 Form I have one single taxable account as many funds I own came to me through both gift and inheritance. In a good number of cases I can buy in this account at nav or reduced sales charges as there are several generations of compounding that have taken place in some of these holdings dating back to my great grandfather.
    When, I can't buy at reduced sales charges (or at nav) I simply pay the commission as there are no charges what-so-ever charged to me by the broker as long as it holds A or C share funds. And, the commisions I do pay are very small in size relative to the size of this account.
    KAUAX is one of my favorite funds. Although it is classified as a mid cap growth fund it fills all the style boxes plus it will hold cash if it can not find good opportunity. The last time I looked it was holding better than 20% in cash. Plus, it usually pays a sizeable capital gain distribution each year; and, being retired that's cash in my pocket. To me that's just as good as an income fund.
    Thanks again for taking over the thread a few years back that was started by Scott and which I ran for a few years. Now, its future lies with you. Back then it was titled "Buy, Sell or Ponder." You and Duke are doing a great job. I've been watching and it draws a good readership.
    And ... May God Bless ... you as well!
    Skeet
  • BUY - SELL - HOLD - November 2019
    Hi Skeeter,
    Good to hear from you. Your funds are always things I have to look up because I've never seen them before.....lol. Just goes to show you how different people are, and that's a good thing. On your AA funds, I'm curious.....do you own VWINX? If not, why? I also own more than I fund in this space....BTBFX. I think of it as a barbell approach.
    As for JGIAX, I have been running more quality bond funds except for PONAX. I'm not sure what's in their black box. DUGAX---have been staying away from EM due to the Blonde One's temper tantrums on trade. Do have 2 on a short buy list though: FEMKX and NGCAX. We'll see......
    As for VADAX -- why not just use the S&P? Just curious.....
    Now, for the big one, KAuAX......I forgot all about this one. Owned it in my 401 years ago before it got cut from the plan. This is one I should have....somebody may have to go in this space. I'm overloaded. BTMFX, CIPMX, FAMEX, PARMX, UMBMX. As you know, my soft spot is mid's. They are the teenagers with promise. Also I worked for a mid cap company.....great leadership and a family culture. It was great.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. And what are you doing up at 3:00am????
  • Fidelity, T. Rowe Win Preliminary OK On New Stock-Picking ETFs
    FYI: Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. TROW 0.27% were among the firms that won preliminary regulatory approval to offer a new flavor of exchange-traded fund aimed at reviving investors’ interest in stock-picking managers.
    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday gave a green light to the firms’ plans, along with those submitted by Natixis Investment Managers and Blue Tractor Group, to create ETFs that choose securities without exposing the managers’ trading tactics.
    The approvals granted Thursday were years in the making, and come months after upstart Precidian Investments secured a go-ahead for its own active ETF model.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fidelity-t-rowe-win-preliminary-ok-on-new-stock-picking-etfs-11573775502?mod=md_mf_news
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    @Simon ah yes forgot about that.... excellent suggestion. I'll also email him. Another fund thats looking great.in risk adjusted terms0 over the last 7 years is FAMEX. David wrote up an analysis of them several.years ago. I was going to see if he could update it.
    FAMEX is a really great fund...a slightly better risk profile than my all time favorite PRDGX which I've held for years and has never disappointed. PRDGX has a much lower fee, of course. I have my IRA with T Rowe and I'm going to check if it's a NTF fund there, otherwise it's a $35 fee to buy which would probably put me off. Thanks for the mention. Both funds are Great Owls.
    If you are listening T Rowe Price - you need to catch up with the trend and eliminate your commissions on many more mutual funds!
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    @Simon ah yes forgot about that.... excellent suggestion. I'll also email him. Another fund thats looking great.in risk adjusted terms over the last 7 years is FAMEX. David wrote up an analysis of them several.years ago. I was going to see if he could update it.
  • IBD: This TCW Mutual Fund Manager Seeks All-Weather Equities: (TGUSX)
    I'm thinking as the market currents change so will the fund's sector orientation. TGUNX reminds me of a fund that I was invested in a few years back ... Ivy Asset Strategy, WASAX. When it was a relative small and nimble fund it was able to followed a sector rotation and positioning strategy in short order; but, as it grew in size it became more difficult for it to position and then reposition. Some say it's repositioning one day lead to the flash crash. With this, I sold the fund since it no doubt was left to modify its investment strategy.
    I have linked below a Morningstar article that covers the flash crash and WASAX in more detail.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/356552/our-take-on-ivy-asset-strategys-flash-crash-fallout
    Then there was Marketfield (MFLDX). While it was small it indeed was an exciting fund to be invested in before Mainstay bought it. Assets continued to grow and the fund became bloated and inefficient. Old_Skeet then sold his shares as the fund flamed out as Mainstay would not close the fund to new investors.
    Below is a link that covers MFLDX's flame out.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-happend-with-alts-flame-out-mainstay-marketfield-1473949171
    Perhaps, the managers of TGUNX will govern with better wisdom than the managers of WASAX and MFLDX did.
    No doubt ... time will tell.
  • Bond Funds Are Feeling the Pain. There’s An Exception At Pimco: (PONAX)
    Since you mentioned WATFX, have you looked at WBND? Same management team. Seems to fall somewhere between WATFX and WACPX. Duration closer to WATFX (around 6 years), portfolio sector distribution closer to WATFX (½ MBS, ¼ IG), but with the flexibility of WACPX (per prospectuses) and similar 10% foreign currency exposure. All three have about the same ER.
    WATFX is NTF with a $100 min at Schwab. WBND is NTF at many brokerages these days (lots of places giving away stock/ETF trades), though there's still a small "SEC fee" on sales and a bid/ask spread.
    Side note: M* analysts (humans) rate the people and the process for both the OEFs as positive. M*'s AI system rates people and process as negative for WBND, even though it's the same people and as near as I can tell a similar process.
  • Bond Funds Are Feeling the Pain. There’s An Exception At Pimco: (PONAX)
    PIMIX lost its mojo since early 2018. In 2019 PIMIX managers continue to make fatal mistakes which put its performance in the bottom 10% for YTD until several weeks ago. The managers finally got it right (about rising rates) but it still ranks in the bottom 20%. I think its best days are over, PIMIX may still be an above-average fund
    but not in the top 10%. PIMIX was my biggest % fund for years (40-50% and more) and the easiest fund to hold. In the last year I have been using JMSIX,EIXIX and IOFIX instead.
  • Consuelo's Mack's WealthTrack: Guests: Chuck Akre & John Neff Co-Managers, Akre Focus Fund (AKREX)
    FYI: We are always on the lookout for the exceptional on WEALTHTRACK. It’s not easy to find among actively managed mutual fund managers. Only 23% of actively managed funds in all major categories, including stocks, bonds, and real estate outperformed their passive index fund rivals over the last ten years. And only about 8% of U.S. large-cap funds outperformed passive, the smallest margin among all active fund categories winners. No wonder that active U.S. stock funds are experiencing substantial outflows and passive stock funds are gaining assets. In a historic shift, passive assets in U.S. equity funds recently surpassed those in actively managed ones for the first time ever.
    This week’s guests are bucking all of those trends. They are active managers in primarily large-cap U.S. stocks. They have been beating the market and peers by substantial margins over the last decade and they are attracting more assets.
    Joining us for a rare interview is Chuck Akre and John Neff of Akre Capital Management
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://wealthtrack.com/finding-compounding-machines-with-the-great-investor-chuck-akre-his-gen-x-co-manager-john-neff/
    M* Snapshot: AKREX:
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/akrex/quote
    Lipper Snapshot AKREX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/akrex
    AKREX Is Unranked In The (LCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/akre-focus-fd/akrex
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    I remain a Meb fan. He's helped shape the ETF landscape these past 10 years. His seminal paper on trend following, entitled A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation, remains the most downloaded paper on SSRN. His straight-forward books, including The Ivy Portfolio. His podcast, which now exceeds 100 episodes, with some spectacular guests are great. We started following him on MFO with Existential Pleasures of Engineering Beta, when he launched his first Cambria ETFs. He invests in his own strategies. But to one of David's points, the firm now has 11 ETFs and several so far have struggled to beat their category peers, which puts him in some good company. I believe he also considers himself as much a part of the 4th estate as he does a money manager. Maybe that, if there is a conflict there, is part of what David picked-up on in a setting like AAII.
  • David Snowball's November Commentary Is Now Available
    “I again would argue that investors need to review their allocations and comfort zones with those allocations, especially as to their ability to replenish their assets in the event of a permanent capital loss. Things that were five or ten years ago are often no longer what they seem ...
    “First, don’t be afraid to hold more cash than you usually would. Secondly, if you are going to be invested in equities, try and make sure that they and your other assets are as uncorrelated to the general markets as possible. Look for things that are unloved ... And try to protect yourself from asset managers who are talking their own book.”

    I may have altered Ed’s emphasis a bit here through my edit. But he strikes me, as usual, as being very prescient. Than again, after a record setting 10-year romp, how many are listening?