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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Ed Yardeni latest piece
    “The scenario I just sketched isn’t a forecast. It is a description of exactly what has been happening in Japan. The forecast is that most of the rest of the world will follow suit. Japan is the poster child for the rest of us who aren’t having enough babies to replace ourselves.”
    (BTW- That’s not a new thought. It’s been around for many years.)
    So why is this country intent on deploying armed forces to the southern border to turn away hungry, willing to work (and consume), families with babies? This isn’t an argument for open borders. But with severe labor shortages across much of the nation, it seems not in our own self interest to discourage new arrivals. MAGA
    As a prospective employer, would you be willing to offer a job to someone who had just walked 2,000 miles in search of work?
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    I regard them as substantially the same as robo advisors.
    @msf, from someone who has half their nest egg in a robo, I'd say you are right on point. There hasn't been much difference in return over the last 3 years for my robo as compared to a comparable TRP retirement fund. The best part about a robo for me, I can't tinker with it.
    But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    @Hank, a very politically correct statement for the site IMlessthanHO. I have a slightly different opinion but it may not be accepted well here. I would be willing to wager that most of the people who post at MFO really don't do any better and in many cases do worse than a retirement fund over time. I've read the elaborate schemes here and heard the results. Those elaborate schemes to me are really just a feel-good way for individuals to feel like they are steering the ship at a more profitable course. But heck, I concede it is more fun to drive the boat than sit in the back. :)
    @Starchild, I don't know anything about Vanguard target funds, but at T. Rowe Price they have 2 different offerings for their funds, Target date funds and Retirement funds. The difference being target date changes over time as you get closer to retirement. Their "retirement" funds hold the ratio you purchase and don't change over the years. Kind of nice to have the choice I think.
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    Hi @Derf & @Junkster: I think the high road was more productive. And, then there is Junkster as we can not discount what he as done with his ability to trade in and out of positions. One of the great things about investing is that there is no one pathway to success.
    For me, I plan to remain well diverisfied but weight more towards what has worked more times than not over the past rolling five years. With this, will cash make a third apperance? I'm thinking that it will and I have weighted my cash allocation accordingly which, for me, includes US currency, cash savings, money market funds and CD's.
    It will be interesting for me to see how my new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% fixed income and 40% equity rolls during the coming years. Also, remember, I hold a good number of hybrid funds that make up better than 40% of my overall portfolio. These hybrid fund managers change their fund's asset allocations (within certain ranges) based upon their read of the forever changing investment climate. To me, this adds some good flexability to my portfolio making it more adaptive to the markets than I would otherwise have.
    I wish all "Good Investing" and continued success.
    Old_Skeet
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    @Old_Skeet: I took the low road. Bottom 3 for last 20,10,5 years.
    20 yrs. non & u.s. fixed 11 times , cash 8
    10 yrs. non & u.s. fixed 7 - 6 times, em &cash 5 a piece
    5 yrs. non-fixed 3 , em,cash, non u.s equty, u.s fixed, hi yield 2 a piece.
    Good investing to all, Derf
  • Vanguard Recommends Investors Increase Non-U.S. Holdings To 40%
    I remember good years for US stocks, when EM outperformed US. But I do not know bad years for US stocks, when EM performed well. So, your attitude to EM depends first of all on your predictions to US market.
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    @Starchid, Thanks,
    I don’t have an answer as to whether this fund is the optimum choice for you. But I think if you could close your eyes for 15-25 years and not look at it, you’d be quite pleased with the compounded return. Trouble is, most of here like to look often. That leads to the inevitable comparisons to other types of investments. And from time to time one type or another will outperform (over shorter 5-10 year periods).
    That .14% ER allows Vanguard to keep more of your contribution compounding for you rather than paying fund expenses. It’s refreshing to hear from someone still contributing to a plan. Take the advice / musings of us “oldsters” with a grain of salt. At 70+ capital preservation starts to become a paramount concern.
  • Experience with Target Funds?

    This is very helpful Hank. Thank you! I admire the simplicity of the fund, (which seems puzzling why Bogle would be apposed to) and that I can add my $6000 a year into it and be done with it. And yes, the low fee is attractive to me. My only reservation would be the amount of Int'l I would be purchasing, but I guess the diversification couldn'y hurt. Like you said, there could be worse choices out there.
    “Half of all 401(k) accounts now hold 100 percent of savings in a target date fund. Just over 30 percent of overall 401(k) assets are in target date funds ...” (2018).
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2018/11/12/what-it-takes-to-be-a-401k-millionaire/
    @Starchild - It certainly appears a good many Americans are using target date funds. But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    That 50% participation rate cited in the Forbes article is due in some measure to many plan sponsors using target date funds as the default option in their plans. I’d say that for many who have very busy lives working and raising families these funds are certainly superior to not investing at all or letting their investments sit in a money market fund. That, I think, is the primary rationale behind their existence (along with an additional way for fund companies to garner assets).
    Eager to hear to what extent MFO participants use / have used these vehicles. More likely, I think, MFO members may know family members, neighbors, etc. who use them). On a few rare occasions I’ve put money into one or more of Price’s target date funds for shorter periods because the particular holdings were useful at that time and the ER looked attractive. That’s not what they were designed for, of course.
    @Ted’s link to Bogle is interesting. I’d certainly agree that bonds no longer offer the degree of protection (against equity sell-offs) they did a couple decades ago when many of these these funds were devised - because of still historically low rates. The recent late 2018 market carnage tended to bear that out. For one, I’m not prepared to write bonds off entirely, thinking there are a lot of hybrid or diversified offerings in bondland which are still worth holding for diversification purposes. (Possibly fodder for another thread?)
    -
    Re: @Starchild’s holding: A glance shows VTTHX (Vanguard Target 2035) invested exclusively in Vanguard’s index funds, with roughly 75% in equities (domestic & international) and 25% in fixed income. It has a remarkably low 0.14% ER. No doubt, the glide slope will soften its (somewhat high) risk profile over the years.
  • Experience with Target Funds?
    “Half of all 401(k) accounts now hold 100 percent of savings in a target date fund. Just over 30 percent of overall 401(k) assets are in target date funds ...” (2018).
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2018/11/12/what-it-takes-to-be-a-401k-millionaire/
    @Starchild - It certainly appears a good many Americans are using target date funds. But you probably won’t find very many here who have used the funds to any degree. The apparent contradiction is largely explained by the fact that those who actively read / post on a mutual fund investing board probably are the type of investors who prefer to manage their investments directly. In addition, they possess a higher degree of investment knowledge and a higher investment comfort level than the average American.
    That 50% participation rate cited in the Forbes article is due in some measure to many plan sponsors using target date funds as the default option in their plans. I’d say that for many who have very busy lives working and raising families these funds are certainly superior to not investing at all or letting their investments sit in a money market fund. That, I think, is the primary rationale behind their existence (along with an additional way for fund companies to garner assets).
    Eager to hear to what extent MFO participants use / have used these vehicles. More likely, I think, MFO members may know family members, neighbors, etc. who use them). On a few rare occasions I’ve put money into one or more of Price’s target date funds for shorter periods because the particular holdings were useful at that time and the ER looked attractive. That’s not what they were designed for, of course.
    @Ted’s link to Bogle is interesting. I’d certainly agree that bonds no longer offer the degree of protection (against equity sell-offs) they did a couple decades ago when many of these these funds were devised - because of still historically low rates. The recent late 2018 market carnage tended to bear that out. For one, I’m not prepared to write bonds off entirely, thinking there are a lot of hybrid or diversified offerings in bondland which are still worth holding for diversification purposes. (Possibly fodder for another thread?)
    -
    Re: @Starchild’s holding: A glance shows VTTHX (Vanguard Target 2035) invested exclusively in Vanguard’s index funds, with roughly 75% in equities (domestic & international) and 25% in fixed income. It has a remarkably low 0.14% ER. No doubt, the glide slope will soften its (somewhat high) risk profile over the years.
  • Road To Retirement: Four Rules For Handling Bear Markets
    FYI: For many younger investors, 2018 marked the first time they experienced meaningful declines in their investment portfolios. And for others who have been around the markets longer, it brought back unpleasant memories from 2008.
    Whenever the stock market comes unhinged, it causes investors to wonder whether they should be invested in stocks. The short answer for most people is yes. You’ll need the potential of stock market returns to reach your retirement goals. But, to be successful in the stock market, you have to learn how to handle bear markets. Because we haven’t had a bear market in over 10 years, let’s review four fundamental investment rules for handling big declines.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.denverpost.com/2019/01/06/road-to-retirement-four-rules-for-handling-bear-markets/
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    Hello: For what it is worth. I've been looking at the table and did an analysis of the top three asset class leaders for the past 20 years, 10 years and 5 year lookback periods. For the twenty year lookback period real estate appeared 10 times, emerging markets 9 times and US fixed income 8 times along with non US equity. For the ten year lookback period US large caps appeared 5 times and real estate, emerging markets, US fixed income along with high yield all appeared four times. For the five year lookback period US large caps appeared 4 times, US fixed income 3 times and high yield and cash appeared 2 times. These were the top three leaders over the respective time periods according to the table.
    With the above in mind this is one of the reasons I feel I am better off with a well diversified portfolio not knowing which asset class will be the annual top three leaders thus I feel it is better for me to own and position some of each. Now, I might hold more of some over others based upon my perception of what might be working (or going to work) the best in the near term.
    So, for me, the table does provide investment value and demostrates why diverification works.
  • First Eagle Overseas Fund to reopen to new investors
    I had been thinking of this before, but it had been closed. Is this a good one for long term? for me is 10 to 15 years
  • The Best Stock Funds For Risky Markets
    FYI: This could be the year of the worrywarts. The recent ugliness in the market suggests that investors are becoming more sensitive to the risks building in the economy—including rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and political turmoil.
    Fund managers who invest with an eye toward risk could look better than they have in years. Their funds have not necessarily sparkled during the nine-year bull market, when investors rushed headlong into riskier parts of the market and distinguishing between stocks didn’t pay off much—one reason passive funds have done so well.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-best-stock-funds-for-risky-markets-51547156975?mod=djem_b_Weekly Feed for Barrons Magazine
  • Josh Brown: Stock Markets And The Rule Of Law
    Ted. Thanks for sharing this. It may be the important link you have ever posted in terms of true, long term significance. When the history of the last two years is written ( and I was a graduate student in America history) the big plot line will be that the Republicans TOTALLY put party over constitution and country. Perhaps we can excuse the maga voter by saying they don't know better but all those GOP senators certainly understand what they are allowing to happen. Shame on them.
  • VMOT is currently fully hedged
    FWIW - VMOT is fully hedged, both US and international. So, it is effectively cash since January 1st. Also, their website is now updated with the historical composition by month over the previous five years.
    https://etfsite.alphaarchitect.com/vmot/#indexinfo
  • M*: The 30-Year Outlook for U.S. Stocks
    Here is the inflation adjusted prediction made by John Rekenthaler. It seems to result from well reasoned, middle of the road crystal ball gazing. The buildup to the prediction is worth a look.
    my stylized outlook is to accept the experts' view of 1% in average inflation-adjusted annualized gains over the next 10 years, then 6% annualized for the succeeding 20 years. If so, that would make the annualized average for the full, 30-year period 4.3%. Per this prediction, U.S. equities from 2019 to 2048 will have annual real returns that are about 1 percentage point less than my parents' generation, and about 2 percentage points behind what I have enjoyed.
    It's good to be me. That said, while the initial few years may be rough, this column's back-of-the-envelope analysis suggests that stocks should remain the purchase of choice for the patient, long-term investor, particularly if that investor suffers losses calmly. Some might be forthcoming.
  • M*: The 30-Year Outlook for U.S. Stocks
    FYI: Tuesday's column discussed the primary investment lesson over the past 30 years: Own equities. Own as much as possible for as long as possible. To a first approximation, it was never wrong to buy stocks, and never right to sell them.
    Today's installment addresses the more difficult task of looking forward. It's one thing to appreciate how successful equities have been. It's quite another to determine whether their marvelous results will continue.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/907507/the-30year-outlook-for-us-stocks.html
  • Marty Zweig (RIP) Two rare Zweig momentum indicators
    As I pointed in my first post I like to include links to prove my points and why I included a chart. Please include charts to support yours.
    I'm not going to buy his book because I can find his ideas on the web + I'm looking for indicators that work in the next day-one week. Over the years I read of several indicators/"gurus" and proved they were all wrong or can be off by months and years. (link)https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/p/379703/3896435.aspx#3896435
    It looks pretty reasonable that a market that went down over 10% will be up close to that in the next several months.
    Since I can't change things that I posted I will not post here very much because I may make a mistake and/or want to change my narrative.
    You are welcome to post on M*, any comment is welcome and we can discuss anything, I don't understand your comment "This board does not allow lively discussions because of the manner in which it is monitored." I do that all the time.
  • Callan Periodic table is out
    Interesting that 2018 was the only year CASH WAS KING in the past 20 years. Before 2018, it came in 3rd a few times, but never 1st or 2nd.
  • IRS Will Pay Refunds During Government Shutdown, Official Says
    Not to belabor this - but I retired more than 20 years ago making $70,000 at the time (1998).
    I was maxing out my 403B, which was automatically deducted by employer. Where I worked we also contributed a sizable amount each pay to the employer sponsored defined benefit plan. I paid extra having opted for the most expensive (but better) plan. Seems to me I also paid extra for the best health plan available to employees. State and Federal taxes hit me hard. Also, mandatory Social Security. And monthly dues to our professional association were deducted. After all that I was lucky to see 50% of my gross pay.
    Still had a house payment (downsized after retiring) and a payment on a new pickup truck. Where I worked (Detroit area) vehicle insurance rates were high to start with and even higher if you drove over 10 miles each way to work. No credit card debt or consumer loans. Lived pretty well (fitness center, trips to Florida, etc.) Probably had enough in non-retirement savings to last a month. After that would have had to start running up a credit line to stay afloat.
    Just me. Others may have developed better thrift habits or might have had family members to help tide them over.
  • IRS Will Pay Refunds During Government Shutdown, Official Says
    Trump’s paycheck to soybean farmers is being held up if they recently filed the paperwork. However, those (like one frequent poster I presume) who got their paperwork in before the shutdown will continue to get paid by Uncle Sam. It’s usually the little guy that gets hurt by these.
    http://newschannel20.com/news/local/government-shutdown-affecting-payments-for-local-farmers
    Feel bad for the TSA folks, air traffic controllers, NTSB teams, etc. Don’t know about most here, but for much of my working years I needed my twice monthly paycheck to cover mortgage, transportation, food etc. Not much left over at the end of a pay period. Yes, the 403B was accumulating, but it’s not easy to get your hands on the $$ if you’re under the required age, So any talk about these folks “making adjustments” is nonsense.