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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @dtconroe- Exactly- same here.
    However...if answering this question prior to maybe five years ago the answer would have been entirely different. The financial positioning is entirely different when comparing accumulation years and preservation years.
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Jeremy Grantham became famous for predicting the dot-com crash in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008.
    Grantham did not anticipate the superior returns for large U.S. stocks (particulary growth stocks)
    since the financial crisis because he believed many of these stocks were overvalued.
    Long-term market trends changed but Grantham's views did not evolve accordingly.
    Having said that, most prognosticators' predictions are incorrect.
    I think it's beneficial to listen to different viewpoints albeit without making large bets on specific outcomes.
    BTW, thanks for mentioning Bloomberg Wealth.
    I'm a fan of The David Rubenstein Show but didn't realize Mr. Rubenstein also hosted Bloomberg Wealth.
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    I consume a lot of financial media.
    Frankly, this is often an inefficient use of my time.
    Good books written by talented authors are frequently more informative and rewarding.
    I just finished reading the recently released second edition of The Four Pillars of Investing
    by William Bernstein. There is a short chapter in the book about "financial journalism."
    Select quotes from the author are below.
    "Is any financial journalism worth reading? Almost none."
    Noted exceptions listed: Jason Zweig (WSJ), Jeff Sommer (NYT), Tara Siegel-Bernard (NYT),
    and Ron Lieber (NYT).
    "But on the whole, investors are better off ignoring not only both these publications,
    but nearly all financial print media."

    "Among general audience publications, only one consistently conveys a nuanced, cutting-edge
    approach to finance and that's the Economist."

    "The Financial Times is also sometimes worth reading, but its digital library availability is embargoed for a month, and accessing the current issue, at several hundred dollars per year, is not cost efficient for many."
    "YouTube also contains a treasure trove of lectures by nearly all of finance's leading lights,
    strewn throughout its vast wasteland of misinfomation."

    Search for: John Bogle, Kenneth French, Zvi Bodie, Eugene Fama, Jason Zweig, Burton Malkiel, William Sharpe, Jonathan Clements, and Charles Ellis.
    Useful internet sites:
    bogleheads.org - discussion board and wiki pages
    humbledollar.com
    Worthwhile finance podcasts:
    Economist's Money Talks
    NPR's Planet Money
    Rick Ferri's Boglehead
    Barry Ritholtz's Masters in Business
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    Hank,
    I’m open to opposing views, but journalists promoting those views should also do a little fact checking of the track record of so-called experts. My investments in CDs are irrelevant because they comprise a small percentage of my overall asset allocation. I never said I was going to all cash or suggesting that others do so. My CDs also are being used as alternative to bonds, not stocks.
    I have followed Grantham’s view for years because the financial press is enthralled by prophets of doom (Hussman is another example). He has been forecasting poor returns for US stocks for at least a decade, while recommending emerging markets and foreign stocks as better alternatives. He has been wrong, year after year. I know this because I am one of the poor fools who followed his bad advice and bought emerging markets funds that have been lousy investments, even after owning them for many, many years.
    I will give Grantham credit for making convincing arguments for his forecasts, even though he’s been wrong. And I fully support his concerns about climate change and the environment.
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    ISTM the entire internet is going to s###.
    At least 90% of the queries i submit (financial or otherwise ) come back as seductive advertisements having no value unless you provide personal information or pay money. Some of us have been around long enough to remember better days when one could do quite a bit of decent research on the net. It wouldn’t be so bad if the Ads were clearly marked as such before you opened up the links. But they rarely are. Re M* - I must have the “lucky touch” as I continue to find it useful for certain information without surrendering cash or providing an email. (Knock on wood.)
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @FD1000 - I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that for most people who visit this site $100K 'IS' a substantial sum of money. Of course I have little to base that on as I have no data to support it. I don't know the financial sums MFO visitors possess. The remainder of your comment is fine.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    My only harp here with all the cash dwellers is: Provided that’s your established style I think it’s a really great way to go and locking in the highest available rates is a solid decision. Where I’d have a concern is with former equity investors who took a drubbing in 2022 (down 10-20%) locking in a substantial loss by selling equities near their lows in exchange for cash. Ernie Harrell always said you should “Dance with the one that brung ya”. So, provided someone had a long standing, effective and appropriate allocation model having broad exposure among asset types and investment styles before things went sour, it’s hard to see why they should switch partners in the middle of the dance, ditch their former approach and move entirely into cash.
    There is no certainty to any of this of course. Interest rates rise and fall. So d stocks, commodities, real estate prices, currencies etc.
    I am struggling a bit, to determine if this thread is really about a "serious" question to determine how one would "invest" a $100k, compared to how to "spend" a $100k. You can spend a $100k very easily these days on Boats, Cars, Hot Dogs, or a thousand other things. Everytime my wife and I have a $100k CD mature, my dear wife talks about "spending" options, most notably plastic surgery so she will look younger, or help one/both of our adult children better cope with their financial needs. For 2 elderly adults in their 70s, investing vs spending, is still very real, but we are still facing an unpredicatable personal future, of not knowing how our existing assets will be needed, to live out the remainder of our life, without "burdening" our adult children, or to alloow us to have some pleasurable experiences to make old age as good as possible.
    As you have noted above, when it comes to investing, we have already made some "debatable" choices. Equities were a big part of our investing decisions until we retired. Then we chose to go with less risky options, where our lifelong accumulations would not be in jeopardy, during this geriatric period of life without employment income, life without a company pension, and life with increasing health risks and some materialistic realities associated with our materialistic assests of homes, cars, vacations, etc. At this point in time, we have chosen a safer path with CDs, which will offer some guaranteed income, not with investing risks associated with bonds or equities, which have their own unique risks.
    This thread has investors/posters, in all phases of life, with varying conditions, unique to themselves. One persons decisions, is one persons decisions, and very likely will be based on conditions, that are different from other persons decisions. And my wife, who knows next to nothing about investing, is an equal partner in life with me, in making those decisons!
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    5.5% 2 year cd jp Morgan chase today at fidelity, stepped in and conducted some commerce at lunchtime
    Like the idea of watches. Get outside of financial system.... you've heard me pine about high grade rubies a few years ago
    Don't read hussy commentary today if you hold lots of stocks etc.... you'll be investing in whiskey to steel your nerves....
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    24-minute interview. Not that great as financial discussions go - IMHO. Grantham’s emphasis is more on climate change and social / political upheaval, both of which he views as grave threats to mankind. The one investment takeaway I got was that he finds value in most international equity markets, while seeing the U.S. market as a huge bubble.
    Linked solely for those who might be interested in Grantham’s latest views.
    Here’s the interview:
    I’d describe Grantham’s read on U.S. equities as “The elephant chasing his tail” argument. Most of what I read elsewhere seems to confirm my suspicion that investors tend to chase what is recently successful - thereby propelling certain assets even higher and pulling in more investors, of course, until the asset(s) eventually tumble under their own weight. More a problem with different corners of the equity market - but I believe it can apply to funds as well, depending on their degree of concentration. ISTM perhaps a certain niche fund’s strategy will remain highly successful for a long while, but than whither on the vine just as its AUM / popularity soar. CCOR may be a candidate here - though I personally believe that one has finally turned the corner.
    The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel is worth a quick read. It was featured in a recent Barron’s interview with the author. Not as good as the Barron’s promo / hype might lead you to believe, but still worth the hour or so reading time. A lot of common sense ideas aimed at the smaller every-day investor / saver. (He’s mostly talked me out of splurging on an extravagant new 2023 auto when my 2018 model is running perfectly fine. :))
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Of course, so much depends on one's financial situation, proximity to retirement, etc.
    That said, here's one idea.
    $20k - Treasuries or LCORX.
    $25k - Fine Swiss timepieces (2-3 from the IWC, Breguet, Piaget, DeBethune families)
    $20k - VGWLX
    $20k - PRWCX / FPACX
    $15k - FMIMX
    Wear the watches now. At least one of the watches should be an IWC Portugieser. Fun to wear, and will always have a market.
  • New formula for evaluating funds? The PEP Ratio.
    The problem with VALUATION is the fact that:
    1) It can't predict the next 3-6-12 months
    2) It can't predict market correction and which index/category will go down more.
    3) Once upon a time PE10(CAPE) looked like a decent indicator until it failed miserably.
    Prof Shiller created PE10 which is supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
    On 05/2012 (https://money.cnn.com/2012/04/10/pf/investing-Shiller.moneymag/index.htm)
    Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
    Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
    If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
    FD: In reality, the SP500 made 13.6% in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). Let's deduct the inflation and make it 11%. It is much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets.
    4) If valuation or another indicator has been how you make more money, we would have a lot more investors such as Buffett and Lynch. Times have changed too...article quote:"It’s harder to find overlooked stocks than it was in Lynch’s day because more people are looking for them — anyone with a smartphone has free access to extensive markets and financial information. The result of greater competition is evident in the numbers: Fast-growing or highly profitable companies are almost always the most expensive while the cheapest ones come with lackluster growth or thin profits."
  • MOVEit Data Transfer Breach
    I've used Symantec VIP to access Fidelity via my desktop computer for several years.
    I haven't experienced any issues with this two-factor authentication app.
    Note: I never access personal financial accounts via any mobile devices.
  • MOVEit Data Transfer Breach
    Krebs' piece observes that "Countless websites and online services use SMS text messages for both password resets and multi-factor authentication." That said, he warns about the risk of using a mobile phone for password resets.
    Lose the phone (or number) to a hacker and you have no protection with password resets because the phone is used as the sole authentication method. In contrast, with true two factor authentication, you're not left unprotected with a SIM swap. You're effectively reduced to one factor authentication - not great, but better than nothing.
    you should do whatever you can to minimize your reliance on mobile phone companies for your security. ... Why do I suggest this? Many online services allow users to reset their passwords just by clicking a link sent via SMS ... If you haven’t done so lately, take a moment to inventory your most important online accounts, and see how many of them can still have their password reset by receiving an SMS
    I'm not suggesting that one should disregard the risks inherent in using mobile phones as an authentication method regardless of the number of authentication factors used. It's just that the biggest risks, the ones Krebs is writing about, come from single factor authentication methods (here, password resets) and from using a relatively unsecure authentication method (mobile phone).
    For security, one wants to use two (or more) factor authentication and keep the authentication methods as secure as possible. The number I have at financial institutions is my landline number. Hard for someone to gain access to, and many places can now send security codes by voice rather than by text.
  • screw 2% as an inflation goal
    That's a false dichotomy.
    There are various perspectives including the pragmatic and the principled. Pragmatically, you most likely won't get caught. I take a pragmatic perspective on a daily basis when I jaywalk. I will not be cited. Rudy is no longer mayor of NYC.
    Rudy Opens New War on Jaywalkers, NYPost, July 8, 2000.
    Then there's the principled perspective. As Yogi described, fair use permits limited copying of material. And California permits (technically decriminalizes) jaywalking in limited situations - when "safe" to do so.
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article266903931.html
    Or one can take a more restrained approach. Post nothing, stay within the crosswalks.
    Side note: Copyright infringement is not prosecuted as a crime unless it is committed "for purposes of commercial advantage or private financial gain". 17 USC 506(a)(1)(A). That could have pragmatic implications (affecting the likelihood of getting caught). Offered as an observation, not advice.
  • Bonds: Why you should invest in short-term bonds over longer-term securities.
    I used to post % of investment. Since everyone financial situation and risk tolerance differ, I am not sure how the investment % would help. Otherwise, these information could potentially be misleading and not constructive. Besides MFO premium has been a wonderful tool for my own research.
  • Firms attempt to break Vanguard’s hold on innovative mutual fund / etf structure
    Brief blurb excerpted from today’s Financial Times - Several different elements. I thought the most fascinating is that one firm is seeking to move in the direction opposite the trend - converting its existing ETFs to mutual funds.
    Excerpt:
    ”A US investment boutique has filed with regulators to launch mutual fund share classes of its family of exchange traded funds in the latest attempt by the industry to break Vanguard’s lucrative US-wide monopoly on the innovative structure. Vanguard was granted a US patent for its “ETF-as-a-share-class” structure in 2000, allowing it to operate a mutual fund and a sister ETF as essentially the same vehicle … Vanguard’s patent expired in May, prompting Dimensional Fund Advisors and PGIA, the US arm of Australian asset manager Perpetual, to file for exemptive relief from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch ETF share classes for some of their mutual funds. F/m Investments, a Washington DC-based multi-boutique has now become the first asset manager to file for exemptive relief to move in the opposite direction — creating mutual fund share classes of its existing ETFs.”
    From: The Financial Times - August 2023
    (It’s near impossible for subscribers to provide workable links to the FT. Probably can find story elsewhere if interested in learning more.)
  • Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate Fund reorganization into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1359057/000089418923005902/vertetfconversion497e.htm
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-133691; 811-21897
    VERT GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE REAL ESTATE FUND
    a series of Manager Directed Portfolios (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated August 21, 2023 to the
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information
    dated October 31, 2022, as supplemented
    At a meeting held on August 17, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan of Reorganization”) which provides for the conversion of the Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate Fund (the “Fund”), a mutual fund series of the Trust, from a mutual fund to an exchange-traded fund (an “ETF”) through the reorganization of the Fund into the Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate ETF (the “Acquiring Fund”), a newly-created ETF series of the Trust (the “Reorganization”). Because applicable legal requirements do not require shareholder approval of the Reorganization and the Board has determined that the Reorganization is in the best interests of the Fund and the Acquiring Fund, shareholders of the Fund are not being asked to vote on the Reorganization.
    Vert Asset Management, LLC (“Vert”), the Fund’s investment adviser, recommended the Reorganization to the Board and has agreed to assume all of the costs of the Reorganization. Vert believes the Reorganization will provide numerous benefits to Fund shareholders, including lower expenses, enhanced investor and financial intermediary access to the Fund as an ETF and the potential for greater tax efficiency. The Reorganization is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2023.
    A combined Form N-14 information statement/prospectus (the “Information Statement”) providing information on the Reorganization, and including the Plan of Reorganization, is anticipated to be mailed to shareholders of the Fund during the fourth quarter of 2023. Under the Plan of Reorganization, shareholders of the Fund will receive shares of the Acquiring Fund having the same aggregate net asset value as the shares of the Fund they hold on the date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is expected to be treated as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes. Shares of the Acquiring Fund are not issued in fractional shares. As a result, some shareholders who hold fractional shares of the Fund may have such fractional shares redeemed at NAV immediately prior to the Reorganization resulting in a small cash payment, which may be taxable.
    Prior to the Reorganization, Vert and Dimensional Fund Advisors Fund Advisors LP (“DFA”), the Fund’s investment sub-adviser, will continue to manage the Fund in accordance with the Fund’s investment objective and principal investment strategies. After the Reorganization, Vert will serve as investment adviser for the Acquiring Fund and DFA will serve as investment sub-adviser for the Acquiring Fund. Mr. Samuel Adams, of Vert, is a portfolio manager for the Fund and will serve as a portfolio manager for the Acquiring Fund. Mr. Jed S. Fogdall, Mr. Allen Pu, and Mr. William Collins-Dean, each of DFA, are currently responsible for providing portfolio management and trading services for the Fund with respect to securities identified as eligible for the Fund by Vert, and will provide the same portfolio management services to the Acquiring Fund. Joseph F. Hohn, also of DFA, is not currently a portfolio manager of the Fund but will be added as a portfolio manager of the Acquiring Fund.
    The Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective and fundamental investment policies as the Fund nearly identical investment strategies and substantially similar risks as the Fund, all as set forth in the Fund’s current Prospectus and SAI. The Acquiring Fund will also be subject to certain risks unique to operating as an ETF. A comparison of the investment policies, strategies and risks of the Fund and the Acquiring Fund will be provided in the Information Statement.
    Shareholders who hold Fund shares through an IRA or other retirement plan whose plan sponsor does not have the ability to hold shares of ETFs on its platform may need to redeem their shares prior to the Reorganization, or your broker or intermediary may transfer your investment in the Fund to a different investment option prior to or at the time of the Reorganization. If you hold shares of the Fund in an account with the Fund’s transfer agent, U.S. Bancorp Fund Services, LLC (the “Transfer Agent”), or another financial intermediary that only allows you to hold shares of mutual funds in the account, you will need to contact the Transfer Agent or your financial intermediary to transfer your shares to a brokerage account that permits investment in ETF shares. Please contact your broker or intermediary for additional information.
    Fund shareholders may continue to redeem shares of the Fund until several days prior to the closing of the Reorganization. Shareholders may purchase shares of the Fund in a brokerage account through a broker, until several days prior to the closing of the Reorganization, which date will be included in the Information Statement mailed to shareholders.
    1
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-133691; 811-21897
    Effective immediately, shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase directly from the Transfer Agent. All references in the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI to purchasing shares directly from the Transfer Agent are hereby removed. After the Reorganization, shares of the Acquiring Fund may only be purchased and sold in a brokerage account through a broker who will execute your trade on an exchange at prevailing market prices.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • What is the highest percentage you’d ever allocate to a single stock?
    Thoughts on the subject from T. Rowe Price:
    There is no set definition for what makes a concentrated position. When an investment in a single stock represents more than 5% of a portfolio, T. Rowe Price advisors consider it to be worth addressing. Once a holding exceeds 10%, however, it represents a greater risk that requires more immediate planning. “Most situations we see aren’t in a gray area, however,” says Daniel Tafoya, CFP®, a financial planner with T. Rowe Price. “Clients with concentrated positions often have 20% or more of their portfolio invested in a single company. This level of concentration is clearly a concern.”
    Source: https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/actions-can-take-if-your-portfolio-is-too-concentrated-in-one-equity.html
  • Investing in mutual funds directly vs through a brokerage.
    Perhaps my memory of what was notarized at the local UPS stores near me is flawed. I'm pretty sure I got two medallion signature guarantees at one of them.
    I can say one thing for sure: maybe 12 years ago local banks stopped being a sure bet for medallions. They went from Any Time You Wish Sir, to once a week, to a haphazard schedule to none. And when it got to None they sent me to Any Notary Public. And I found one a block or two from the bank. She was not a financial institution officer. And she charged me an exorbitant fee. But I got the medallion signature guarantee in her little office.
    Here is a link to info about what UPS notarizes:
    https://www.theupsstore.com/store-services/notary-services
    It looks like wills and trusts are included at at least some of their branches.
    No mention of medallions.
  • Investing in mutual funds directly vs through a brokerage.
    Notary & Signature Guarantee
    Notaries just require state registrations/licenses to operate. Some get it for earning extra income on the side. Many currency exchanges have notaries. Many legal offices have someone on staff as notary. All a notary is vouching is that the signature belongs to the one signing it (in front of them) - there is no liability beyond that (and any liability would be the loss of registration/license).
    Signature Guarantee is same as Medallion Signature Guarantee. It is by bank or financial institution officer. Beyond authentication of signature, there is also financial liability about the soundness of the document being guaranteed. In some Signature Guarantees at my local bank, I have gone through almost half-hour interview process on what/why I am doing something. Once for a 529 signature guarantee, the guy thought something looked strange, and he called the 529 program right away to determine if what I was doing was allowed by them. Good that I had prior related correspondence from the 529.
    It's a long way of saying that I doubt some kid at the local FedEx or UPS store can do Signature Guarantee.