CDs versus government bonds Don’t know about your finance situation and risk tolerance. So here it goes for your questions on CDs:
1. As of today the only CDs that yield 5% are those with shorter duration ones, 9-12 month. Creating a CD ladder is necessary in order to maintain cash flow (income) as you desired. For example, a one-year ladder consisting of 4 CDs with each maturing every 3 months would provide income every 3 months. So it boils down to how much extra income you want from your CDs. Don’t forget that the interest accrued from CDs is taxed as ordinary income with both federal and state tax applies. Treasury bills/notes are federal tax-exempt but state tax is still applied.
2. CDs are safe (FDIC insured) but they are not liquid during the investment period. Some bank CDs pay interest monthly, but they pay at lower yield. Brokered CDs at your brokerages pay higher yield, but majority of them pay at maturity, not monthly. Treasury bills (1 -12 months), on the other hand, are highly liquid and one can sell them on secondary market if necessary. Creating T bills ladders will provide periodic income just as CD ladders.
3. At current inflation rate (CPI as of Feb 2023 is at 6.2% y-o-y), you are losing future buying power each year by investing in CDs alone. Thus, other investment vehicles such as stocks, bonds, and others are required as part of the “growth” component of your retirement income.
Within this MFO discussion forum, you are getting opinions from other investors. The best answer should come from your financial planner. At least you have something to consider as a starting point. Best wishes.
Vanguard Dividend Growth Manager Stepping Down Excerpted from The Independent Vanguard Adviser :
"Since Kilbride took over the fund in Feb. 2006, he has outperformed the market with less risk and beat his in-house index competition, Dividend Appreciation Index (VDADX), to boot. To put some numbers it, since April 2006 (the launch of the index fund competitor), Dividend Growth’s 9.8% annual return was 0.9% per year better than the 8.9% annual gains generated by both 500 Index (VFINX) and Dividend Appreciation Index. The fund held up better than the market during the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID panic and the current bear market."
"I expect Fisher will continue the approach Kilbride took while helming Dividend Growth — this should still be a portfolio of companies that produce a steady and growing stream of dividends. It’s not about getting the highest yield, but about owning companies that pay out a larger and larger dividend with each passing year."
FOMC, 3/22/23 Notes from FOMC Statement & Powell's Presser
Fed fund rate hike of +25 bps to 4.75-5.00%; bank reserve balance rate 4.9%; discount rate 5%. Guidance changed from "ongoing rate increases" to "tightening as necessary" based on future data and events. Rate cuts are unlikely this year despite market expectations. The Fed deals with fiscal policy as it comes and has no comments or input into it. Inflation is moderating but remains high; path to +2% average inflation may be long and bumpy.
QT continues at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries and -$35 billion/mo for MBS. The recent expansion of the Fed balance sheet due to temporary and short-term bank lending isn't really offsetting the QT that is for its longer-term securities.
Labor market remains strong now but the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% later this year.
Economy is slowing overall. Services and consumer spending (possibly due to milder Winter) are strong, but goods and housing are weak. Risks now are to the downside, but soft landing is still possible.
Banking crisis: Strong actions were taken to boost confidence in the banking system. This crisis may lead to some tightening of financial conditions. The new FTBP and Discount Window lending facilities available to all banks should protect deposits and avoid runs (some happened very quickly). The failed banks and several others were under Fed watch, but runs and collapses still happened. Fed VC Barr is leading a review of bank supervision and regulation. The CRE exposure of smaller banks isn't seen as an issue now. Resolution of Swiss Credit Suisse was a huge relief.
Reaction of the stock market was mixed - first up, then down. Most Treasury rates fell on the day of fed fund rate hike.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/986/thread
Fed Watch
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve extended its year-long fight against high inflation Wednesday by raising its key interest rate by a quarter-point despite concerns that higher borrowing rates could worsen the turmoil that has gripped the banking system.
“The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” the Fed said in a statement after its latest policy meeting ended. At the same time, the Fed warned that the financial upheaval stemming from the collapse of two major banks is “likely to result in tighter credit conditions” and “weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.”
The central bank also signaled that it’s likely nearing the end of its aggressive streak of rate hikes. In its statement, it removed language that had previously said it would keep raising rates at upcoming meetings. The statement now says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” — a weaker commitment to future hikes.
The Fed included some language that indicated its inflation fight remains far from complete. It noted that hiring is “running at a robust pace” and “inflation remains elevated.” It removed a phrase, “inflation has eased somewhat,” that it had included in its statement in February.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell said, “The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.”
The latest rate hike suggests that Powell is confident that the Fed can manage a dual challenge: Cool still-high inflation through higher loan rates while defusing turmoil in the banking sector through emergency lending programs and the Biden administration’s decision to cover uninsured deposits at the two failed banks.
The central bank’s benchmark short-term rate has now reached its highest level in 16 years. The new level will likely lead to higher costs for many loans, from mortgages and auto purchases to credit cards and corporate borrowing. The succession of Fed rate hikes have also heightened the risk of a recession.
The troubles that suddenly erupted in the banking sector two weeks ago likely led to the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter-point rather than a half-point. Some economists have cautioned that even a modest quarter-point rise in the Fed’s key rate, on top of its previous hikes, could imperil weaker banks whose nervous customers may decide to withdraw significant deposits.
The above was excerpted from a current
Associated Press article, and has been edited for brevity.
Sell all bond funds? Depending on your financial situation, you could take that RMD and invest it again, but in a taxable account. CCOR has indeed been poor lately. Here's their explanation:
https://corealtfunds.com/assets/pdfs/Core_Alternative-Commentary_January2023.pdfI've noticed despite it's defensive nature, it has these odd spikes in volatility at odd times. It tends to zig when the market zags, but still has risks apparently. It seems like they have a value tilt, which would mean when growth outperforms, they might underperform. But I also wonder if some of these spikes have to do with options expiring, sometime profitably and sometimes worthless.
Vanguard Said to Shutter Business in China, Exit Ant Venture Excerpt from Bloomberg,
A complete retreat would follow Vanguard’s surprise move two years ago to scrap plans for a mutual-fund management license in China to focus on the BangNiTou tie-up with Ant that was launched in 2020.
Fidelity and Neuberger Berman Group have recently joined BlackRock in launching onshore funds through new wholly-owned units, while Manulife Financial Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley have gained approvals to buy out local partners to gain full control of existing ventures.
The race for fund advisory is heating up with more players coming in, hurting profitability. Vanguard’s venture, which has been offering only products from competitors, booked a loss in 2021 that was much higher than an internal forecast made after it was set up in 2019, Bloomberg reported last year. Vanguard owns 49% of it.
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/vanguard-plans-to-shutter-business-in-china-exit-ant-jv?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify%20wall
Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers I watched that too and her speech was meant to calm the market. That why I ask if there is something else I missed.
In another age it would have had a calming effect. But we live in an age of
cynicism. The speech by itself is ISTM of questionable value. But if the government is really willing and able to stand behind chartered banks / credit unions / S&Ls across the nation and back all deposits as high as the sky for the full amount for as long as necessary, then it should work.
Beyond my pay grade or skill set - But a
dovish Fed tomorrow, ISTM, would have the effect of loosening financial conditions, encouraging lending / liquidity flow and easing financial stresses. A
hawkish Fed would have the opposite effect. The Fed would like to remain
hawkish to counter inflation - but may have to take a more moderate approach in the face of the bank turmoil.
Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB @Crash- Not on this list, at least-Banks With Highest Uninsured Deposit BalancesBank of New York Mellon
____ 96.5%
SVB Financial Group
________. 93.9%
State Street
________________ 91.2%
Signature
_________________- 89.7%
Northern Trust
_____________- 83.1%
Citigroup
__________________ 77.0%
HSBC Holdings
____________ 72.5%
First Republic Bank
_____-___ 67.7%
East West Bancorp
____..____ 65.9%
Comerica
____________._____ 62.5%
Source
Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers Banks With Highest Uninsured Deposit BalancesBank of New York Mellon
____ 96.5%
SVB Financial Group
________. 93.9%
State Street
________________ 91.2%
Signature
_________________- 89.7%
Northern Trust
_____________- 83.1%
Citigroup
__________________ 77.0%
HSBC Holdings
____________ 72.5%
First Republic Bank
_____-___ 67.7%
East West Bancorp
____..____ 65.9%
Comerica
____________._____ 62.5%
Source
Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB
THANKS! Very grateful. Thanks for thinking of me.
*******
We reviewed 59.....Assuming the Fed's actions (more on that below) minimize the probability of widespread bank runs, we do not anticipate changing many Dividend Safety Scores in response to these events outside of the downgrades we issued this week for First Republic, Zions, and UMB Financial....More downgrades are possible
...That said, these are the banks (in alphabetical order) that have a higher mix of uninsured deposits, larger unrealized investment losses, and/or more exposure to tougher regulations:
BHB falls in the "Medium to Low" category. So, as far as they can tell, it's among the safer regional banks.
U.S. lawmakers to examine merits of higher FDIC bank deposit insurance cap ”Four prominent U.S. lawmakers on banking matters said on Sunday they would consider whether a higher federal insurance limit on bank deposits was needed to stem a financial crisis marked by a drain of large, uninsured deposits away from smaller and regional banks.”StoryBloomberg is reporting this evening that Fed officials are also actively considering a plan to extend FDIC insurance to all bank account balances, regardless of amount. And there was one report on Bloomberg that money has now begun fleeing the largest banks. Where will all this end?
Shelia Bair Weighs in
Only for the sake of peeking ahead, Sunday, March 19, .....If you're curious There’s some really interesting analysis of all the recent events on Bloomberg this evening. Some thoughtful, articulate and knowledgeable guests. I’m at least a week behind reading my FT subscription. And then there’s the WSJ I never quite get fully caught up on. It’s all fascinating stuff. Just so much financial news … !
Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession? @ dtconroe and
@DavidF, please see
@bee’s posting on WealthTrack.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58534/wealthtrack-weekly-investment-show/p8
Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what we can expect moving forward, including the impact of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow down the recovery.
Nancy thinks we are entering a recession in the next 12 months, even with conflicting data on strong employment numbers, high wages, decent earning reporting and an inverted curve.
I too think a 25 bps rate hike is likely this week.
Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis Excerpt:
The conversations come as Buffett has been a savior to the banking sector in the past. The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) invested $5 billion in Bank of America (BAC) in 2011 as he tried to bolster the bank due to its losses tied to subprime mortgages. In 2008, Buffett came to the aid of Goldman Sachs (GS), investing $5 billion in the bank in the depths of the financial crisis.
Regional banks may need the help of Buffett after several of the banks' stocks cratered this week, such as Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), KeyCorp (KEY) Comerica (CMA) and Zions Bancorp (ZION), after the twin failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3948701-warren-buffett-talking-to-biden-administration-on-banking-crisis-reportThe original article is in Bloomberg but it is behind a paywall.
No detail release yet. In BOA case, WB got their preferred stocks at his asking price and dividend yield. Both were aimed at lowering his investment risk knowing that there is a high probability the government will come to help. FED did shortly. Read somewhere he made many folds over his initial investment with little risk. We will see what Buffet will ask for this time. Despite his age, he is a great investor.
UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion @LewisBraham, when Dutch giant ING got into trouble during the GFC 2008-09 and had to be rescued by the Dutch government, one condition was to refocus on core businesses. It ended up divesting its US operations (noncore):
ING insurance and asset management businesses (US) went to Yoya Financial/VOYA.
ING Direct (US online bank, that itself had origin in the failed online NetBank in GA) went to Capital One/COF. Unluckily or luckily, I stayed through all these transitions after my early find years ago that NetBank offered FREE wire transfers - that didn't last long!
We don't know all details of the UBS takeover of CS, but there may be similar conditions by the government or by UBS. CS in the US already had a lot of controversial M&A history - First Boston, Warburg Pincus (asset management unit), Donaldson Lufkin Jenerette.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_Suisse
UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion "has agreed"... (as in "an offer that cannot be refused")
Credit Suisse, the battered Swiss banking giant, has agreed to a takeover by Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS — a move aimed at staving off immediate concerns of a disorderly bankruptcy and stemming panic about global financial turmoil.
UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an emergency deal that ties up two of Europe’s largest banks, Swiss authorities announced Sunday.
Swiss authorities are planning to speed up the process by circumventing laws that would require a shareholder vote, the Financial Times reported earlier Sunday. The Financial Times also reported that the value of the all-share deal was more than $2 billion, but that figure was not officially confirmed by the Swiss authorities.
A “swift and stabilizing solution was absolutely necessary,” Alain Berset, president of the Swiss Confederation, said in a Sunday afternoon news conference. The UBS deal, he said, was “the best solution for restoring the confidence that has been lacking in financial markets recently.”
In a joint statement Sunday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said that they “welcome” the announcement.
“The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong, and the U.S. financial system is resilient,” Yellen and Powell wrote. “We have been in close contact with our international counterparts to support their implementation.”
Credit Suisse and UBS did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The takeover caps more than a week of speculation over the Swiss giant’s fate amid growing fears of a global financial crisis, after two U.S. regional banks suddenly failed earlier this month. Although U.S. regulators have taken sweeping steps, including backstopping deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York, those measures have done little to assuage fears of a cascading banking crisis.
Those concerns went global this week, after Credit Suisse warned of “material weaknesses” in its financial reporting. On Thursday, the bank received $53.7 billion in emergency funds from Switzerland’s central bank, but it wasn’t enough to restore confidence in the bank’s viability. Shares of Credit Suisse have tumbled more than 20 percent in the past week, and more than 35 percent this year.
The past week has raised new questions on what it will take to avert another crisis. On Sunday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called on Congress to lift the federal insurance cap for bank deposits above $250,000. She also urged lawmakers to repeal a provision of the 2018 law that had loosened restrictions on banks with $50 billion or more in assets, saying the latest tumult in the financial system underscored her belief that the Fed has fallen short on its core duties.
The above is a complete and unedited transcript of a
current article in The Washington Post.
UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion Credit Suisse Importance"The bank ranks among the world's largest wealth managers and crucially it is one of 30 global systemically important banks, whose failure would cause ripples through the entire financial system.""Credit Suisse has a local Swiss bank, wealth management, investment banking and asset management operations. It has just over 50,000 employees and 1.3 trillion Swiss francs in assets under management at the end of 2022, down from 1.6 trillion a year earlier.""With more than 150 offices in around 50 countries, Credit Suisse is the private bank for a large number of entrepreneurs, rich and ultra rich individuals and companies."Link
UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion Heard as low as ONE billion (not sure which currency) was offered by UBS. This Credit Sussie debacle is actually bigger issue on global level of financial contagion. The Swiss government already made billions line of credit available.
++++
During the hay days, Credit Sussie Bank is the second largest Swiss bank widely held in many mutual funds. It was worth many bullions in asset. Something went terrible wrong in recent years that led to their demise.