Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Some people let politics influence their investing decisions.
    For years, I’ve said the same thing: ignore the noise and stay focused on the market.
    But when the Chief Executive is a childish, oblivious, reckless, crazy-ass saboteur? Ignore him at the risk of instantly losing everything. We are in a political moment without precedent, as Catch just stated. If any of this unhinged nonsense had ever been seen before, that would be rather different.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Some people let politics influence their investing decisions.
    For years, I’ve said the same thing: ignore the noise and stay focused on the market.
  • Fed farm Bonds 4.8% callable- Disclosure Question
    Here's the term sheet: https://www.farmcreditfunding.com/ffcb_live/termsheet/3133ETDT1.pdf
    and the complete (64 page) offering circular including risk factors:
    https://www.farmcreditfunding.com/ffcb_live/pdfs/offcirc/BondAndDNOfferingCircular2024.pdf
    I'm guessing that you're expecting these to get called in a month since (a) you write about parking cash, and (b) 50 basis points is the spread between 4.3% 1 month T-bills and this 4.8% bond. (Fidelity reports the spread to Treasuries (4 years) as 0.855%.) So one risk you may be facing is the possibility of being "stuck" with these bonds for a few years or selling at a loss.
    The issuer has an interesting structure. It is a corporation formed by the issuing banks in order to issue bonds. Should some underlying banks fail (and the other banks be unable to service the bonds), these bonds would be junior to bonds issued by the banks individually.
    The banks in turn have an interesting structure. They are ultimately owned by cooperatives of borrowers (think farms borrowing from these banks). "The [Farm Credit] System’s mission is to support rural communities and agriculture with reliable, consistent credit and financial services."
    This in turn suggests a sector concentration risk that could be aggravated by government policy. This is not a tangential political statement. Rather it is written into the offering circular:
    These risks depend on a number of factors, including financial, economic and political events, over which the Banks have no control, including trade policy agenda, such as retaliatory actions by other countries.
    When issuers are under financial stress, they often are unable to refinance higher interest debt at market rates. Consequently, even without defaulting, stress increases the likelihood that they don't call their outstanding debt as you expect.
    Do I think that all of this to blow up within a month or so (to first call date)? Probably not. Will the bonds get called "on schedule"? Don't know. Not trying to scare you here. Just taking a quick look at the risks stated in the circular.
  • ETF EPS
    WisdomTree/WT earnings-weighted ETFs do use several screening criteria to narrow the list - market-cap (to separate LC, MC, SC), profitability, etc, but in the last weighting step, it applies earnings-weights using 4 quarters of earnings data and does annual rebalancing. Because of this, the summaries of the process used by these ETFs may be misleading at other sites.
    WT uses its own indexes, so it also saves licensing fees. Self-indexing is a controversial issue.
    Of course, flaws can be pointed out. But Shiller's PE10 does P/E average over 10 years and that hasn't worked in years - but that idea is appealing and sells, so remains popular.
    Revenue-weights can have its own issues - profitability and market-cap vary a lot across sectors and industries, e.g. IT vs retailers. Top 5 US companies by revenue are WMT, AMZN, AAPL, UNH, BRK.
    Equal-weight may generates high turnovers.
    A more sensible approach would be fundamental-weighting with multiple factors as RAFI indexes do and are used by Pimco, Schwab, etc.
    But as I indicated in the OP, I was looking for earnings-weighted ETFs and found them - LC EPS, MC EZM, SC EES.
    And now, anyone looking for them at MFO will also find them.
  • ETF EPS
    Weightings based on company earnings makes some sense. It's an intriguing way to build an index.
    Weights based on earnings per share (which is not what these ETFs do) would make about as much sense as the DJIA being share price weighted. If a Dow component has a 2 for 1 split, its weight in the index is (approximately) halved. Likewise, EPS is cut in half if a company has a 2 for 1 split.
    it removes valuation from the picture.
    Almost. It limits its universe to the 500 largest U.S. companies by market cap. From that point on, weightings are substantially independent of valuation. (They must also have a P/E of at least 2, a very low bar if profitable).
    I might prefer an index that did a little more smoothing of earnings to avoid whipsawing. It looks only at earnings over the past four quarters. Some companies have relatively steady earnings, while others may be cyclical, running deficits for years (investing for the future) before making profits. (See nimble dividend.) I need to give it more thought.
    I haven't delved too deeply into whether nonrecurring expenses (or revenue) are incorporated into the calculation of earnings¹. These could likewise whipsaw a company's weighting, decreasing (or increasing) its earnings weight for one year only.
    ¹ See, e.g. https://accountinginsights.org/what-are-non-recurring-charges-and-how-do-they-work/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Derf ...common holdings ranked by dollar volume between accounts include: FNMA, CLDX, T, JPST, SCHD, EVT, UTF, and PTA. As you can see, some are highly speculative, and many throw off significant distributions.
    I don't add or subtract very often. That will change (hopefully) if AVGO gets a bump at earnings this week. It may rise higher over the next 2 years or so, but I'll be cashing in to fund a half dozen different long term positions when the market inevitably tanks in the near future.
    By the way...I've found that buying high quality individual stocks when on sale is one of the best ways to generate income and capital gains within an account. But you must be very patient. Same with CEFs.
    It's not magic, but it works for me. FYI, Schwab has me +14.91% YTD,
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Not a single copy of After Yorktown in the public libraries of Maricopa County. I guess I'll have to buy one. :)
    Have to agree that PRBLX lost its way. It used to be a steady low volatility fund. Sad to see Amazon in the top five holdings.
    Total returns as of yesterday
    1 year...VOO 13.7%....PRBLX 12.6%
    3 year...VOO 48.7%....PRBLX 43.6%
    5 year...VOO 119%....PRBLX 109%
    Simpler: 5-year average annual performance... VOO 15.9%...PRBLX 14.9%.
    Why did PRBLX lose its way?
    I don't see it yet. When the SP500 is strong as per the last 5 years, it's harder to beat it.
    I don't question my managers' selections; either you trust them or not.
  • Chaos-Resistant Investing
    Some observations after going through MFO, June 1, 2025.
    @David_Snowball: My TIAA 403b does include some non-TIAA funds, but the only Pimco fund available is PIMIX. When my plan changed about 4 years ago, some options were frozen - so, I could keep CREF Social Choice / QCSCIX, sell it, but cannot get back in. For now, I am sticking with it. Will keep an eye on Pimco multi-asset PIRMX (REITs, precious-metals, commodities and lots of TIPS).
    @lynnbolin2021: A few years ago, I moved from Wellesley VWINX / VWIAX and VGWIX / VGYAX to Wellington VWELX / VWENX and VGWLX / VGWAX. I used ST- or ultra-ST- bond fund to make appropriate allocation adjustments. Maybe, with higher interest rates, it's time to take another look at Wellesley.
    @dong or @Don_Glickstein (guessing MFO handle): Great launch article. But one caution about Upside/Downside Capture Ratio (U/D CR).
    U/D CR works best when at least 1 bull and 1 bear cycles are included in the period. Similarly, Upside CR should have at least 1 bull cycle, and Downside CR should have at least 1 bear cycle. Otherwise, the values can mislead.
    Since-inception does catch various market cycles. But 18 months isn't sufficient for definitive conclusions. IMO, the period considered should include at least 2022 (so, 3 yrs), maybe even 2020 (5 yrs). Note that CBLDX has existed since 01/2018-, but CBLVX only since 10/2024- .
    Anyway, those are minor details. I thoroughly enjoyed your piece.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 5/31/25
    "Staying home has worked for US investors for years but now may be time to think GLOBAL with 15-20% exposure (average now is 12%)."
    So is (was) this a trade for 2025, or is this a new long-term shift in investing attitude?
    US equities are no longer the safe bet, according to "expert" advise. Gosh, I wonder what changed.
  • WealthTrack Show

    Grantham had a fairly insightful comment for his critics...
    In the major crises\recessions, he never met any serious manager that regretted being several years early (for large equity underweight), not based on whether they were able to keep their job but on the result for their shareholders.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 5/31/25
    This ad-hoc feature returns after a long break - the last was in 11/2024. One reason is that except for some special issues, Barron's has reduced coverage for funds. This week has several fund stories and some more were added due to my wrong guesses yesterday (market "EXTRA").
    Staying home has worked for US investors for years but now may be time to think GLOBAL with 15-20% exposure (average now is 12%).
    ...
    Funds: DODLX, FOSFX, GLD, IEUR, INDA, MDWIX, TGVAX, TXUE, VGK
    INCOME/FUNDS. Dividend-oriented funds can focus on dividend-growth (CGDG, VIG, VIGI), current-dividends (FDVV, ONEY, VYM) or dividend-blend (SCHD).
    Q&A/FUNDS. Alan BERRO, AWSHX / RWMGX / WSHFX (AUM $191.6 billion; low turnover). This large-blend (near the edge of value and blend) and GARP strategy fund mostly holds dividend-paying stocks with stable dividend histories. But there can be exceptions for up to 10% of the AUM, so there are growth stocks AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, CMCSA, MSFT and turnaround situations BA, EL, GILD, NKE, SBUX. Value/cyclicals should do better in meaningful rate environments. But he avoids high-yielding value-traps.
    FUNDS. Vanguard core bond VCORX is featured. Top holdings are investment-grade corporates, Treasuries/Agencies, Agency MBS with some EMs, foreign sovereigns, and HY. Fund is cautiously positioned as the probability of recession in 2025 has increased.
    EXTRA, FUNDS. Following BlackRock/BLK, State Street/STT, etc, Vanguard is expanding its PROXY-VOTING program “Investor Choice” to several of its index funds. However, only a tiny % of holders eligible to vote do so. Fund companies are also expanding their related investor PR.
    EXTRA, FUNDS. Tidal Trust will offer ETFs based on publicly disclosed holdings of funds by Bill ACKMAN, Stan DRUCKENMILLER, Michael BURRY, Warren BUFFETT, etc. These ETF portfolios may be stale by several months.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/841/weekly-business-digest-june-2025
    Link for Weekly Features https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/board/12/market-insights
  • US Treasury Holders
    some insiders may jackpot in a technical default (e.g., budget ceiling raise known not to pass).
    "...credit default swaps...The cost to insure against a default of the U.S. government in the next five years has risen to 54 basis points in recent months. This is higher than the cost of insuring against a default of Italy and almost as high as the insurance premium for Greece...."
    uh, MAGA! i guess, if an insider.
  • Covered-Call Funds
    By using options, one can create ("structure") financial instruments having virtually any behavior, at a cost of course. IMHO it's not much different from betting - not meant in a derogatory way. And unlike betting, when investing the deck is stacked in your favor. Over time, stocks go up and bonds pay principal and interest.
    In horse racing, there are payoff odds on each horse. This is apparently more complicated than gamblers on team sports like. So there "products" are "structured" to offer even money bets. Instead of betting on which team wins with odds set accordingly, a derivative product is offered: one bets on team ± a spread.
    In a similar, though more complex way, options can be used to package investment instruments. Want something guaranteed not to lose money? Package a zero coupon bond with a call option (on say, the S&P 500) so that you get some of the gain if the market goes up, and no loss if the call expires worthless.
    If you're willing to give up some downside protection for a higher cap on potential gain, you can do that by using put options instead of zeros. See Schwab's description of buffered ETFs.
    Income is certainly one reason why people use options such as covered calls.
    Managed distribution funds (usually closed end) are something different. These are funds that, as PRESSmUP described, distribute a fairly steady stream of distributions by design. So long as those distributions are less than the total return of the fund (regardless of all is well and good.
    From a black box perspective, it doesn't matter what the source of that total return is - dividends, gains (realized or unrealized), proceeds from selling options, proceeds from lending, etc. However, if the fund is distributing more than it is making, then it is eating into your capital, generally not a good thing.
    QQQX runs hot and cold. 20%+ total returns in 2021, 2023, 2024. It was one of its category worst (100th percentile) performers in 2022 and YTD (per M*). Over the past five years, its NAV (and its market price) has gone up, so it hasn't been distributing more than it's made.
  • Value Investing
    I never invested based on inflows because they are not reliable.
    Since 2000, I only used relative strength + the best risk/reward funds within leading wide range categories + only several funds.
    It takes several years to practice it and get better. This way you can't be too long in lagging categories.
    US LC tilting growth were the leaders suring 1995-2000 + 2010-24 = about 25 years
    Value, international, and SC during 01/2000 to 01/2010 while SPY+QQQ lost in that period =10 years.
  • Trump wins temporary reprieve as he fights against court block on tariffs
    Following are excerpts from a current report from The Guardian:
    Appeal judges grant stay as officials blame ‘activist judges’ for dealing major blow against signature policy
    The Trump administration is racing to halt a major blow to the president’s sweeping tariffs after a US court ruled they “exceed any authority granted to the president.” A US trade court ruled the US president’s tariffs regime was illegal on Wednesday in a dramatic twist that could block Trump’s controversial global trade policy.
    On Thursday, an appeals court agreed to a temporary pause in the decision pending an appeal hearing. The Trump administration is expected to take the case to the supreme court if it loses. The ruling by a three-judge panel at the New York-based court of international trade came after several lawsuits argued Trump had exceeded his authority, leaving US trade policy dependent on his whims and unleashing economic chaos around the world.
    On Thursday, the Trump administration filed for “emergency relief” from the ruling “to avoid the irreparable national-security and economic harms at stake”. The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the judges had “brazenly abused their judicial power to usurp the authority of President Trump” in what she characterised as a pattern of judicial overreach. “Ultimately the supreme court must put an end to this,” she said.
    Leavitt’s comments came as a second judge, Washington DC district court judge Rudolph Contreras, called the tariffs “unlawful” and ordered a preliminary injunction on the collection of tariffs from a pair of Illinois toy importers, which brought the case. Tariffs typically need to be approved by Congress but Trump has so far bypassed that requirement by claiming that the country’s trade deficits amount to a national emergency. This had left the US president able to apply sweeping tariffs to most countries last month, in a shock move that sent markets reeling.
    The court’s ruling stated that Trump’s tariff orders “exceed any authority granted to the president … to regulate importation by means of tariffs”. The judges were keen to state that they were not passing judgment on the “wisdom or likely effectiveness of the president’s use of tariffs as leverage”. Instead, their ruling centered on whether the trade levies had been legally applied in the first place. Their use was “impermissible not because it is unwise or ineffective, but because [federal law] does not allow it”, the decision explained.
    Financial markets cheered the court’s ruling, with the US dollar rallying in its wake, soaring against the euro, yen and Swiss franc. In Europe, the German Dax rallied 0.9%, while France’s Cac 40 rose 1%. The UK’s FTSE 100 blue-chip index ticked up 0.1% at the start of trading. Stocks in Asia also climbed on Thursday, while in the US stock markets all rose marginally.
    The court ruling immediately invalidated all of the tariff orders that were issued through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law meant to address “unusual and extraordinary” threats during a national emergency. The judges said Trump must issue new orders reflecting the permanent injunction within 10 days.
    The ruling, if it stands, blows a giant hole through Trump’s strategy to use steep tariffs to wring concessions from trading partners, draw manufacturing jobs back to US shores and shrink a $1.2tn (£892bn) US goods trade deficit, which were among his key campaign promises. Without the help of the IEEPA, the Trump administration would have to take a slower approach, launching lengthier trade investigations and abiding by other trade laws to back the tariff threats.
    The decision is also likely to embolden other challenges to Trump’s policy. Last month, California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, filed a lawsuit against the tariffs, arguing they were “illegal, full stop”. The court was not asked to address some industry-specific tariffs Trump has issued on automobiles, steel and aluminium, using a different statute, so these are likely to remain in place for now.
    Stephen Miller, the White House deputy chief of staff for policy, hit out at the ruling in a social media post claiming “the judicial coup is out of control”.
    At least seven lawsuits have challenged Trump’s border taxes, the centerpiece of Trump’s trade policy. The court made its ruling in response to two cases. One was filed by a group of small businesses, including a wine importer, VOS Selections, whose owner said the tariffs were having a major impact and his company may not survive.
    The plaintiffs in the tariff lawsuit argued that the emergency powers law did not give the president the power to apply tariffs, and even if it had done, the trade deficit did not qualify as an emergency, which is defined as an “unusual and extraordinary threat”. The US has run a trade deficit with the rest of the world for 49 consecutive years.
  • Value Investing
    No need to guess.
    YTD tells the story. As of yesterday:
    SPY,QQQ,VTV(value) 0.9% to 1.7%
    PDI(CEF), VTRIX (international value), VXUS(international), VGK(Europe) = 6.9%, 11.6% 14.9%, 21.3%
    Inter leads Value Inter, and Europe leads all.
    The above is known since 02/2025. Just use a chart and you can see the leaders.
    Just remember that for several years, and sometimes since 2010-12, several "experts" told us almost every year...that this year international and EM would be better.
    Arnott told us that in 2009.
    GMO told us that in 2010.
    The founder of PE10, Prof Shiller, told us that in 2012.
    It's all documented (here).
  • Value Investing
    The S&P 500 is currently tilted more towards growth than value.
    The predominance of the Magnificent 7 stocks has been a large influence in recent years.
    I don't how the S&P 500 has been balanced between growth and value stocks historically.
    Institutions (e.g., S&P, Morningstar) may have different criteria for defining growth/value stocks.
    Edit/Add: VOO had over $150 billion of inflows since the start of 2024.
    This ETf hasn't had a monthly outflow since 2022.
    Data reported by M* in early April of this year.
  • Value Investing
    The U.S. stock market has been dominated by technology themes for years.
    Foreign stock markets were much less influenced by technology.
    Value outperformed growth internationally with financials and energy as key contributors.
    "Ultimately, I agree with Dan Rasmussen that the triumph of growth over value in the US has more to do with 'historically unique and rare circumstances.' As Rasmussen pointed out: 'The US has been through an innovation wave ... where these large-cap tech companies have so dramatically performed in terms of their fundamentals such as to be in the top 1% of the historical sample in terms of growth rates of earnings and profits and revenue, and to have done that on such a massive scale was unprecedented.'”
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/why-value-investing-has-worked-better-outside-us
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    US Constitution 1.8.2 provides the power to issue debt to Congress. That literally meant that each Treasury debt issuance had to go through Congress. That was OK early on, but to simplify matters later, Congress DELEGATED the power to issue debt to Treasury, but created the debt-ceiling mechanism to keep a leash on Treasury.
    Well, now that debt-ceiling fiasco is a regular drama in DC.
    https://www.senate.gov/about/origins-foundations/senate-and-constitution/constitution.htm
    Section 8
    The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
    To borrow Money on the credit of the United States;
    To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes;
    To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States;
    To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;
    To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States;
    To establish Post Offices and post Roads;
    To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;
    To constitute Tribunals inferior to the supreme Court;
    To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offences against the Law of Nations;
    To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
    To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;
    To provide and maintain a Navy;
    To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;
    To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;
    To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;
    To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;—And
    To make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof.
  • Federal trade court blocks Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law
    ” … probably be satisfied if Congress simply delegated their tariff power to the President.”
    Perhaps initially. But there’s a larger issue of whether Congress can constitutionally delegate away to another branch of government an authority they are granted under the Constitution. Could Congress, for instance, delegate their Constitutional powers to impeach high officials or declare war to the executive branch? Could they delegated their power to levy and collect taxes to the judiciary?
    From the Constitution Article I, Section 8, Clause 1 : "The Congress shall have Power to lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States”.
    This will end up in the S.C. We’re in for some really interesting judicial proceedings, outcomes, precedents over the next couple years. I had trouble with Peter Navarro’s comments on BB this morning that the courts are engaged in a systematic “attack on the American people” along with his assertion that we are presently in the midst of a “national emergency” because China has (allegedly) killed millions of Americans in recent years through some technological bio attack (Covid I guess).
    The impact on markets? After a hot start in the early morning, major U.S. markets recoiled and are up only slightly. Gold, which first fell on the news last evening, is now positive on the day by nearly 2%.