Chuck Jaffe: Wall St. Legend Says Investors Should Ignore Politics One can separate political views (and contributions) from investment practices. Over the past several
years, what has served as a benchmark for me in measuring how much politics has swayed money managers is how loudly they decried the deficit after 2008.
For example: "With current government deficits and debt running amok expecting inflation rates to remain low is wishful thinking—indeed, given current trends, it is more likely that inflation will be significantly higher over the next ten to 20
years than it was from 1970 until now."
Running amok? Wasn't that a
Star Trek episode?
That
market commentary by a Mr. Jim O’Shaughnessy was dated September 2010. Things change. No reason to be concerned now about a
projected $10T deficit over the next decade (just released by the
CBO). Especially in an economy finally
nearing full capacity.
Best and Worst Funds Discovered Here At MFO EXTAX (Manning & Napier Tax Managed) was first suggested by board members and also favorably mentioned by Professor Snowball perhaps 8-9 years ago. ... (Apparently that fund no longer exists).
If it got your attention just 8-9
years ago, you may have wondered about the ticker. Manning & Napier funds were called Exeter funds until Sept. 26, 2006.
EXTAX was just (this month) liquidated. From the
prospectus supplement:
The Board of Directors of the Manning & Napier Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”) has voted to terminate the offering of shares of the Tax Managed Series (the “Series”) ... Accordingly, ...The Series will redeem all of its outstanding shares on or about February 1, 2017
(I'm confident Shadow posted this at the time; now it was just easier to fetch the filing directly.)
Best and Worst Funds Discovered Here At MFO EXTAX (Manning & Napier Tax Managed) was first suggested by board members and also favorably mentioned by Professor Snowball perhaps 8-9
years ago. Did very well with it averaging in over a 3-year period. Eventually sold when it no longer met my needs. Been meaning to say "Thank You" to David and the board members for that one. (Apparently that fund no longer exists).
Good thread
@MikeM
Best and Worst Funds Discovered Here At MFO So many mutual fund ideas have past through this web-site and it's predecessor FundAlarm since I started visiting 11+ years ago. Some ended up being stinkers, but others have ended up being staples in my portfolio. With that, I was wondering what fund ideas were found here by others here at MFO/FundAlarm that were either bad buys or those that were great. These come quickly to mind for me:
The 3 best for me have been: (in no particular order):
PRWCX, SFGIX, and PONDX (DSENX is quickly finding it's way up the list, just haven't owned it as long).
3 stinkers I wish I didn't gamble on:
USAGX, ARIVX, WASYX
The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns: (1997–2016) SC value and EM are in the top 3, 16/20 years. Not a surprise but that pattern has me wondering if I should boost my allocations to those two areas. I can get neither directly in my Federal TSP at work.
Morningstar's New CEO Values Independence, Contrarian Approach To Investing: Video & Text
Small Cap Fund Recommendations BCSIX, closed, is the M* choice for small-cap growth. It's a health science and tech fund and concentrated. One fund that has out performed it over the past few years is GSXAX, more a SC blend and one that is light on health and tech relative to the benchmarks. I used to hold HSSCX and I still think it's a good choice. I was a bit put off by it holding SC index ETFs as the two top positions. What's that called? Active inactive? BTW, I use other funds for SC international.
Small Cap Fund Recommendations Sorry. If you bought any of those funds in 2009, you would come out okay and wouldn't really have any reason to complain if you didn't buy the highest performing one of the lot.
Question now is how will they do next 10 years. I'm buying ICMAX and PVFIX.
mf newsletter 5 vanguard funds that double my investment During rising (bull) markets talk turns naturally to how much one might (hypothetically) make given good luck and some timely investments. During falling (bear) markets talk turns to how much one might (hypothetically) lose and the number of
years it would take to gain it back.
-
@OJ - Perhaps we need a list of
banned words and phrases likely to induce consternation among some? "Alternative facts" seems to fit that mold and could be placed at the top of said list. :)
PRMSX TRP EM stocks Just noticed. ON FIRE. +10.92, YTD, 2/23/2017. PRMSX. Don't own it. I do own SFGIX, and it lags PRMSX these days. But look back 5 years: SFGIX wins, hands-down. SFGIX is closed, anyhow. If you're not already in, I'd say PRMSX deserves a look. Eh?
Parnassus funds @VF, you can always roll your own, easily.
If I could do that why would I bother being here discussing with you mugs. I have a bullshit meter and I can do ANALysis, but not Analysis. I don't expect to ever buy a stock or ETF as long as I live. And after that I'll appear in nightmares of all who do.
Or maybe Parnassus can hire my elder in 5 so
years when she finishes college and she can fulfill my "dream" of having a mutual fund manager in the family....
Fannie And Freddie Took A Big Fall, Will Bruce Berkowitz’ Fairholme Come Tumbling After?
:-D
M* Still has no clue. Shows down 2.83 today. Like Yesterday never happened. BUT YTD it shows it is still 12% up.
Why only FAIRX has this problem on M*. I think M* is waiting to publish a seriously negative comment on FAIRX. They were in love with SEQUX and still are. I think they have had a falling out with Berkowitz especially after they published their analysis. Berko is not happy, and even expressed in last conference call "5
years back M* thought I was great...." etc.
Anyways, like I said, I'm in Vegas and playing with the house's money. So I'm taking a chill pill.
Warning To Yield Chasers: Beware Junk Bonds! I literally was about to post this very link with some caustic comments. Like do financial writers ever get it right?? Saying HYG and JNK are up roughly 13% the past year is so out of touch with reality - the reality being they are up (before today) 19.07% and 21.02% respectively. With junk bonds you look at total return (including dividends) NOT just price!!! As for Marty Fridson, what else is news? He has been warning of the overvaluation in junk bonds seemingly the past 12 months along with a bevy of other experts. Junk bonds ARE overvalued but so far the market seems not to care. They are due for a correction, maybe a very imminent correction. From being top heavy in bank loans coming into the year now 100% in junk bonds - IVHIX and MNHYX. As usual always on a short leash. At this point in my financial life want as little drawdown as possible. When you have won the game quit playing seems to be the buzz phrase with a lot of older investors ( 70 years+) thanks to the relentless bull of the past 8 years. I certainly concur!
S&P 500: 50-Day And 200-Day Moving Average Spreads
Parnassus funds Nothing now, but it'll be PARWX on a correction.
I owned PRBLX for years, but sold the last batch about 2y ago. As a fund that's always tried to dip well down into mid and small, the big runup in AUM (over $15B now) has likely been a headwind. It may climb back into the stratosphere of large blend funds next time there's a big correction or bear, though - that's always where it's done the best on a relative basis (see 2008).
Cash Will Be King in 2017 While it's difficult to do so at my age, I'm watching Eric Cinnamond and reading his Absolute Value blog. So I'm taking profits and trying to make myself sell my losers (much more difficult). New money from my 403b sits there glaring at my failure to ride the bubble, and I worry about my "not so old" money, which is generally positive, although some of it took overlong to become so (but my idea of "new" is within the last 5 years). I did buy some XAR, due to some suggestions here.
This is an artificial market, driven by QE, and rates have to rise sometime. Yellen will be replaced by a compliant individual, but there is an increase or two in interest rates in the meantime.
If anyone knows when to step out of this market, they're much smarter than I. One also has to be able to predict crowd behavior, to get to the exits before they do; and some members of this crowd use megadata and computer arrays far beyond my ability, time or resources.
I haven't put my grandchildren's money in since I have to believe there's at least a 10% decline to come, but 20% seems possible.
As others have commented, one needs to buy when there is blood in the gutters (but, frankly, I doubt the Rothchilds were ever fully invested).
Must admit that I'm a long way from dog food for lunch (and, hey, the French eat horsemeat, so I hear), but I bet some of that Fancy Feast with a bit of onion and hot sauce would be mighty tasty. Unfortunately, it's not actually that cheap.
I don't think you are alone in having a lot of money in cash.
Suggested reading for a teenage investor Hi Bobpa,
Congratulations on a great gift idea and having a granddaughter to implement it. She's also a very fortunate girl with the opportunity for a really long (60 plus years) investment period.
I hope she has the interest, the discipline, and the patience to take advantage of your foresight. Being female, she has a higher likelihood of doing so over any male probabilities.
Given the likelihood that she will not commit any significant time to following the markets on a daily or even monthly basis, I would recommend thin books that advocate a passive investment approach.
The Little Book series offers two obvious choices: John Bogle's "Little Book of Common Sense Investing" or Burton Malkiel's " The Random Walk Guide to Investing".
Both volumes are abreviaions of much larger works. The Bogle book is just over 200 pages and the Malkiel work is just under that total. That increases the likelihood that she will actually read them.
The Little Book series also has volumes that address active investment strategies, but I would not recommend them at this juncture; perhaps a little later.
I hope this helps.
Best Wishes
This Bullish Signal Has Never Been Wrong — And It’s About To flash For 2017 Good to know the Obama-Bull is still running, 8 years running!!!
This Bullish Signal Has Never Been Wrong — And It’s About To flash For 2017 FYI: CFRA’s Sam Stovall says he’s looking for a long-overdue “digestion of gains,” though he adds the pause will not likely result in the end of this bull market.
The run will continue, the chief investment strategist writes, thanks in part to improving earnings and inflation staying subdued. In support, he notes one indicator that’s close to getting triggered.
“If you need additional encouragement that a bear market is not just around the corner, history again may offer some more virtual Valium,” says Stovall, who delivers our call of the day.
Since 1945, there have been 27
years when the S&P has achieved gains in January and February. The stock index then finished up for the year (on a total-return basis) in every one those
years, according to Stovall. That’s going 27 for 27, or batting a thousand.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-bullish-signal-has-never-been-wrong-and-its-about-to-flash-for-2017-2017-02-22/print
